Coquettish Rebirth

While Jia Hongjian's opponents were all advancing, Jia Hongjian was not idle. When Wang Jizhi was asked to Sinicize Pixar's special software, Jia Hongjian wrote an article by hand. ◎Smart kids remember the update of super fast hand typing. ◎His article, from some perspectives, can be regarded as an article that continues to play the characteristics of the magic stick. In the article, he first reviewed the bay in the early 90s War, after reviewing Bush Sr.’s dispatch of troops, after that, he changed his pen and began to say a point that no one had ever mentioned before——

"The most important reason why Bush Sr. launched the Gulf War was to bring the U.S. into the line of financial dealers. Before Bush Sr. launched the war, the U.S. had no military presence in the oil-producing regions of the Middle East. Some scholars believe that the U.S. Fighting against Iraq in the war, thus stationing troops in the Middle East is to encircle China and at the same time control the oil-producing areas, and finally ensure that the United States can use cheap oil. In this article, the author will try to analyze this situation in the United States from another perspective. The implications behind military dynamics.

Through the author's investigation of the US financial market in recent years, it is found that various US consortiums rely on oil futures to make a lot of profits.This begs the question, why do these American consortiums keep winning?Why when the American consortium enters the market, it is before a new round of fighting begins, when oil production is large and oil prices are at a low level, but shortly after the American consortium enters the market, fighting will break out immediately, which will make the oil production Export restrictions affect the rise in global crude oil futures prices? "

"After the above data, the author can boldly draw a conclusion that the reason why the United States started the Gulf War. The biggest idea is to make money! After they control the oil-producing areas, relying on oil options and the status of the United States as the world's oil settlement currency, Plus stationing troops in oil-producing areas. Finally, with various short-term loans from the American consortium, you can have the world's largest cash machine! The development profit of oil wells is only 20%-30%, and the investment recovery period is usually as long as several months or even years. However, relying on the fact that the oil futures markets are located in Europe and the United States—ipe and ex, as well as the U.S. dollar as the settlement currency, the United States can completely avoid the manufacturing and resource industries with extremely long investment payback cycles. They only use virtualized In the financial market, you can harvest wool from other countries!

And after indirectly obtaining the pricing power of oil through war, the United States can also use this method to fight against all enemies!For example, after Clinton came to power, he discovered that the largest industry in disintegrated Russia was oil exports, so he suppressed oil prices.This makes Russia unable to profit from oil prices for a long time.At the same time, on the other hand, they create oligarchs in Russia through agents, so that they can control Russia's economic lifeline.If the U.S. doesn't want Russia to recover from its economic collapse, it can keep oil prices down for a long time!Keep Russia on the brink of collapse!At the same time, if another imaginary enemy that can compete with the United States appears in the future, such as China, in order to limit China's growth rate, the United States can completely start another Middle East war.As a result, the price of oil futures has been raised year after year, and by raising oil prices, the resistance to China's rapid growth has become greater, and the price paid has been greater! "

"The United States is not a country that makes decisions to make Americans' lives better. American law stipulates that individuals can only give political cash to politicians below 2500 US dollars, while the upper limit that consortiums can give is very high, and even once A US presidential campaign manager commented on the process of the US presidential election in this way—there are two most important things, one is to have money, and the other I forgot. Some commentators even in the United States said that if Washington In the next life, I don’t know if they, the founding fathers, can still participate in the presidential election in the modern United States. It can be seen that the decision-making of the American president is largely in favor of the interests of the consortium rather than the interests of the people. The sale of guns in the Second Amendment has always been preserved, and arms dealers need the existence of this amendment, so no US president dares to say that he wants to ban guns during his election campaign.

Therefore, such an action by the United States to speculate on crude oil futures and virtualize and financialize the American economy is not beneficial to the American people at all.Because making money as a financial speculator is much faster than making money in manufacturing and resource industries.Therefore, the United States will gradually begin to de-industrialize. They will export some basic industries overseas, such as China, a country with low labor costs, and the United States will become a paradise for financial speculators.But in such a paradise for financial speculators, not all citizens can afford it.Those with high education can enter Wall Street to participate in the feast, but those with low education do not have a factory to enter.This kind of deindustrialization has reached a certain point. If there is a financial problem, the US economy will immediately experience a crisis. At this time, even if the US wants to start state intervention and prepare for re-industrialization, as President Roosevelt did before World War II, But it will be very difficult - their costs will be very high at that time, and they will not be able to compete with the mature production lines that have been transferred abroad.Therefore, during World War II, the scene where the United States built more ships than the number of ships sunk by the enemy will never appear again..."

This essay by Jia Hongjian can really be said to be the result of a thorough analysis of international history from 90 to 2010.These things can be seen in 2010, it is considered a very thoughtful and talented person, let alone seen in this era!This is simply prophetic!After analyzing the various advantages and disadvantages of economic virtualization, as well as the opportunities for China, Jia Hongjian mentioned in advance a problem that China may encounter in the future——

"Among the problems that China may encounter in the future, the biggest possibility is the so-called middle-income trap! The so-called middle-income trap means that when the per capita GDP of a backward country is below 1000 US dollars, it is in a poverty trap. In this state Now, if they are unable to change their status by themselves, they are equivalent to a poor person whose income from hard work is barely enough to feed themselves. They are completely unable to let their children study, and they are also unable to make any changes. If no external force intervenes at this time, the family of this poor person will always be In a state of poverty, this is a poverty trap. However, it is very gratifying that our country has introduced a large amount of foreign investment due to reform and opening up. With the influence of an external force, our country will quickly break through the poverty trap in the next year or two. A take-off period of per capita gdp of 1000 to 3000 dollars will be ushered in soon. But when the per capita gdp reaches 3000 dollars, it will face a middle-income trap. At this time, due to the rapid development, various problems accumulated in society will be It exploded at this time! The development phenomenon that a country stays in the middle-income stage for a long time and is difficult to enter a high-income society can be said to be the result of the failure of a country’s development strategy transformation in the process of leaping in the development stage. If it enters the middle-income trap, then Sustained high-speed economic growth will gradually come to a standstill, per capita gdp hovering below 10000 U.S. dollars is not allowed to enter, and at the same time, the original growth mechanism and development model cannot effectively deal with the resulting systemic risks. Therefore, it is particularly prone to transformation failure at this time Phenomenon!"

Historically, this middle-income trap was a concept put forward by the World Bank in a 2006 report.In this day and age, no one has proposed it, which is tantamount to taking advantage of Mr. Jia Hongjian.Therefore, with the help of this concept given by the World Bank, Jia Hongjian began to act as a genius economist in a particularly handsome way-"The middle-income trap generally manifests in the following characteristics-economic growth decline or stagnation, min zhu chaos Phenomenon, polarization between rich and poor, high incidence of corruption, excessive urbanization, shortage of social public services, employment difficulties, social unrest, lack of faith, fragile financial system, etc.

From 1950 to the present, only Japan and the four Asian tigers have successfully crossed the middle-income trap.Among the large-scale economies, only Japan and South Korea have overcome the middle-income trap and entered the ranks of developed countries, while others, such as Latin American countries and Southeast Asian countries, have been hovering within the middle-income range.When a country enters the middle-income platform.The low-cost advantage is gradually lost, and it is difficult to compete with low-income countries in the low-end market, but it is difficult to compete with high-income countries in the mid-to-high-end market due to constraints in R&D capabilities and human capital conditions.In this squeezed environment, it is easy to lose growth momentum and cause economic growth to stagnate.

However, our country is different from other countries. Our country has a vast market and a basically complete industrialization system. Both upstream and downstream can provide supporting products. At the same time, the domestic infrastructure is relatively complete and the logistics costs are relatively low. However, in the face of R&D and capital constraints in the mid-to-high-end market, it is difficult to compete, so it is also easy to face the problem of a slowdown in economic growth.However, it is difficult for our country to avoid several other problems——

Missed the opportunity to change the development model.Take Argentina and other Latin American countries as examples. After implementing the import substitution strategy in the early stage of industrialization, they failed to switch their development model in time. Instead, they continued to promote import substitution of durable consumer goods and capital goods. Even after the oil crisis in the early 70s, they continued to borrow money to grow , so that the import substitution strategy continued for half a century.However, Malaysia and other Southeast Asian countries are extremely vulnerable to external shocks due to their small domestic markets and long-term implementation of export-oriented strategies that make them overly dependent on international market demand.

Insufficient attention has been paid to development fairness.Equitable development is not only conducive to improving income distribution and creating a more balanced development, but also can alleviate social contradictions and conflicts, thereby contributing to sustainable economic development.After Latin American countries entered the middle-income stage, due to the rapid expansion of the income gap, the consumption of low- and middle-income residents was seriously insufficient, and the role of consumer demand in driving economic growth weakened.For example, in the 70s, the Gini coefficient of Latin American countries was as high as ..., and Brazil was still as high as 90 in the 0.64s. In some countries, due to the disparity between the rich and the poor, the society was severely divided, causing fierce social turmoil, and even regime change, which seriously affected economic development. .

Misalignment in macroeconomic policy.From the perspective of Latin American countries, due to the high debts of the Western countries, inflation and imbalances in the balance of payments are difficult to eliminate, frequent economic crises have caused large economic fluctuations, such as the Latin American debt crisis in the 80s, and the Mexican financial crisis in 1994 continued to affect the economy. growth hit hard.Argentina experienced nearly a decade of negative growth in the decades from 1963 to this year, mainly concentrated in the debt crisis of the 80s..." rq

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