1988: Back to the human world for a few years

Chapter 457: The Dagger Revealed a Little
To be fair, 1990 was a year full of twists and turns.

In terms of economy, the two things that people remember most vividly about this year are that China's economy began to gradually recover after the successful hosting of the Asian Games, and that the island nation entered its lost forty years after the economic bubble burst.

But in reality, the dramatic fluctuations in the world's capital markets are far more than that.

As the Gulf crisis intensified, investment funds speculated on expectations, and WTI crude oil futures began to soar in July, rising by 7% until the outbreak of the Gulf War;

Affected by the rise in oil prices, the American stock market, which had just finished raising interest rates, continued to fall. Even in the month before the outbreak of the Gulf War, it plummeted by 6%, which seemed to be the same as the stock market of the island country that was being harvested;
In addition, the price of gold also began to soar. On August 8, the day the Gulf conflict broke out, it jumped from US$2 per ounce to US$373 per ounce. Then, in just three weeks, it rose to a historical high of US$387 per ounce. Then it began to fluctuate violently. The short-term fluctuations were so large that they were rare in history and could be called "crazy gold."

As for other commodities, the market conditions are even more complicated, with some prices rising and some falling, but generally speaking, price increases are a common trend;

It stands to reason that in this chaotic global capital market, there are so many areas to enter, whether it is the Japanese yen exchange rate, oil futures, or even Southeast Asian commodities. Dahua Company, which already has relatively abundant social resources, can obtain information and even insider information about some regions and industries to help it operate better. But why would Song Wenxuan want to start with "gold", a field that has nothing to do with Dahua Company?

the reason is simple.

Just as an insider who has been in the advertising industry for a long time will never believe in the various exaggerated advertisements on TV, many elites who come from a financial background/are qualified to access some of the truths of this world will never believe in the bottom line and integrity of those capital giants, and they will not even believe in the rules of the game in the Western financial system... Although the world's distrust of these rules of the game generally stems from the bizarre operation in later generations when the US crude oil futures fell below negative numbers, in fact, this kind of inherent distrust started very early.

Therefore, just like the old saying handed down by the Chinese ancestors, "Antiques in prosperous times, gold in troubled times", which seems vulgar but is actually full of wisdom, in essence, gold is the value object that best reflects certain essential aspects of this world, and it is also the choice with the lowest actual overall risk for outside investors who are not qualified to sit at the table.

Dahua Company just needs Song Wenxuan to make some achievements to seize the right to speak in the special studio. The platform they are using is patriotic overseas Chinese like the Lin and Chen families. No matter from which perspective, it is impossible to choose a valuable asset with too great a risk... One of the great advantages of gold is that even if you fail in short-term operations, you can still convert it into physical gold and make it a part of the family asset allocation.

Of course, since you are not qualified to sit at the table and you want to play short-term operations on someone else's territory, you must have a basic understanding of their rules of the game. Short-term operations are different from ordinary asset allocation. If you don't understand the rules of the game and just rush in blindly, you will be eaten to the bone.

………………

Ok……

The main ideas and framework of the international capital market for manipulating gold prices have actually always been the same old ones.

Simply put, the global gold market is divided into two major parts: the spot market and the futures market, with the main centers located in London and New York respectively;
Among them, London is the world's largest spot gold trading market, where all transactions are conducted in physical gold;

New York is the world's largest gold futures trading market, and its real-time prices reflect the current supply and demand situation;
However, unlike London, the COMEX in New York focuses mainly on future price contracts rather than the exchange of physical gold;
Although the London market focuses more on physical transactions, the New York futures market also plays a key role in pricing... There is no way, COMEX involves a lot of speculative activities, and these huge amounts of funds directly affect the final price of physical gold.

Interestingly, the trading hours of the two markets overlap.

The New York market is traded for 23 hours, and the remaining 1 hour is covered by London, thus providing a more coherent view of global gold prices; allowing interaction between the spot market and the futures market, thus helping to smooth price fluctuations, and providing hedging and arbitrage opportunities, as well as providing room for operation in small and medium cycles;
When gold starts to rise due to the influence of macro factors, spot gold in London begins to be sold to buyers in need of safe havens and the "under-bed storage" of some wives, controlling the demand relationship and pushing up prices, creating a scenario of supply exceeding demand. The New York futures market will then respond and help support the market.

But when the gold price has almost risen to the point where it should, the New York futures market will start short selling, and the London spot market will also send out a signal to tell investors that now the spot gold inventory is abundant, which will cause COMEX to trap the buyers at a high level, turning them into leeks, forcing them to reluctantly sell at a loss... and the gold that is eventually sold will eventually flow back to the London spot market, thus starting the next round of gold circulation cycle (later, with the emergence of ETFs, the gold circulation cycle is faster, and there is no need for direct trading of spot gold).

At this point, the capital from both Britain and the United States completed a combined punch and gained huge profits.

Of course, this is just a small-cycle operation in the gold market. Since it is called a "small cycle", it is a normal operation at the micro level. If everything is done step by step, it will be easy for everyone to gradually figure out the rules. If you only make money by relying on the profit difference generated by small short-term operations that take advantage of the fluctuations, then you are looking down on the group of crocodiles in Europe and the United States.

Wouldn't it be stupid to have your own unique advantages but not play to them, and instead compete with you small fry in operating techniques?

Therefore, like almost all futures, the gold market has a "big cycle" in addition to the small cycle;
Unlike the normal technical fluctuations in small cycles, large cycles are closely related to the macro environment. For ordinary people, not only are the variable factors more difficult to predict, but the intensity of each fluctuation is also not comparable to the small winds and waves in daily life.

Generally speaking, there are four factors that affect the price of gold from a macro perspective. As long as the four dragon balls are collected to summon the dragon, the global gold market will inevitably enter a large cycle of violent fluctuations.

1. Inflation.

Gold has always been regarded as the preferred investment product to fight inflation. To a large extent, it is the strongest anchor of value.

100 years ago, it cost about $20 to customize a high-end suit in America. At that time, the official price of 1 ounce of gold was also $20, which means 1 high-end suit = 1 ounce of gold.

In 1990, if you ordered a custom-made high-end suit like this, the price might be more than $350. Compared with the current gold price, it still requires 1 ounce of gold (an industry common sense, most of the international luxury brands are priced based on gold, so under the premise of a strong secondary market, you will find that whenever there is an economic crisis, luxury goods are more popular. This is not because people are stupid, but for risk aversion; now you know why there are no international luxury brands in China... As the saying goes, the effort is beyond the poem.)
Therefore, an obvious rule is that once there is a more obvious inflation, the price of gold will definitely rise;

As luck would have it, central banks of various countries have been conducting monetary inflation in the past two years...especially the UK, which is still obsessed with adhering to the "gold standard". You will find that the UK's inflation rate in the past two years is almost completely overlapping with the rise and fall trend of gold prices (of course, there is a lag of about half a year, and the information gap caused by this half-year lag is the key).

2. US dollars.

It is a well-known fact that since the dissolution of the Bretton Woods system, the price of gold has reflected the inverse of confidence in the dollar;
If trust in the dollar falls, the price of gold will rise;

Since America has just finished raising interest rates, and seeing that the Japanese yen and stock market have been put on the table, everyone has been expecting the Fed to cut interest rates; and the fact that American debt has been difficult to sell in the past two years has also been seen by everyone (as mentioned earlier, the island country actually wanted to sell US debt to cope with the depreciation of the yen at the beginning, but just as the idea came up, the Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office's Special Investigation Team, known as the FBI's island branch, was dispatched, which shows the dilemma of US debt at this time);
A situation that is slightly contrary to the cognition of later generations is that although the United States had basically won the Blue Star Tournament, due to the European Community's unwillingness to submit and various other reasons, the US dollar hegemony had not actually been formed at that time, and the situation of the US dollar was even not very good... Of course, after January 1991, the situation suddenly became different.

In short, because of the pessimism and distrust of the US dollar at this time, America, which had just bit off several pieces of fat from the island country, not only saw its stock market begin to dive, but the price of gold was also pushed to a high of nearly $360 per ounce, and even rushed towards the psychological peak of $366 per ounce.

3. Investment demand.

A very cruel truth about the capital market is that although many things are indeed closely related to the lives of ordinary people like us, most of the time, we have no say and even no sense of existence.

Investment demand is the core of most asset prices, including gold. It is also the underlying driving force for large-scale financial operations of precious metals such as gold... Of course, the individuals who make up these demand points are completely different from the ordinary people in the stock market.

In wealth management, especially in the logic of the old Swiss system, asset allocation must include a proportion of physical precious metals, and in many investment portfolios, this proportion is very high;
Then when the market has high expectations for growth, demand will increase significantly, which in turn will drive a strong rise in gold prices (perhaps because it is the same type of people, the old Swiss system is probably the group of people in the world who distrust exchanges the most).

4. Changes in geopolitical relations.

As we all know, geopolitical conflicts and wars will cause huge fluctuations in the economy, stocks, and commodity markets...and this is particularly prominent this year.

Since the Gulf conflict broke out in August, America has begun to deploy troops in the Persian Gulf. The uncertain prospects have cast a thick shadow over investors' minds.

As we all know, America has not won a decent war since the end of World War II.

From the 38th parallel in the 1950s that the American high-level officials were unwilling to even recall,

In the 1970s, the Vietnam War caused permanent psychological damage to the American people;

Even when it was wrestling with the Russian Empire, America never dared to stand up in the frontal battlefield;
In short, in everyone's eyes, America is a rich young man who is luxuriously equipped but pampered. Apart from fighting monsters near the Novice Village, if you want him to fight someone with real swords and guns... Sorry, let alone whether he has the courage to do so, even if he really fights, he may not win.

But at that time, Iraq was known as the world's third most powerful military country. Not only was it well-equipped with advanced weapons, but its regular army also numbered one million. Moreover, this "Lion of Babylon" had accumulated decades of experience in the powder keg region of the Middle East. How could it be compared with those monsters in the novice village?

Therefore, in the minds of most people today, America's deployment of troops to the Persian Gulf is either just a show, or it will be like the Vietnam War and fall into a ten-year quagmire again;
But no matter which result is achieved, the weakening of the US dollar and the rise in gold prices are inevitable.

Of course, how high the gold price will rise, how long it will take to reach its peak, and how long this cycle will be are all other matters.

To sum up, it is not difficult to see that this world is full of too many traces of manipulation. Those important decisions that are either puzzling or surprising are actually nothing more than the good or bad news created by the big sharks in Europe and the United States in order to make a living.

So in a sense, some second-generation scholars engaged in international relations research and even journalists are actually more suitable for this industry than those with a background in finance.

………………

"Oh? Director Song is also optimistic about the price of gold, and plans to push the price above $366 per ounce?"

The Lin family representative was a little hesitant.

Although he didn't know much about futures and didn't have much financial knowledge, he understood one thing very well: since $366 per ounce was the psychological peak of the market, no matter how bullish the gold price was, the difficulty of breaking through this peak would undoubtedly be enormous.

After all, the Lin family came from the gambling industry. In his opinion, the futures market should be similar to the common black casinos in Southeast Asia. Since the managers of each black casino have their own profit and loss lines in mind and have their own response methods for various emergencies that may exceed their own profit and loss lines, the futures market should be the same;
Song Wenxuan smiled and shook his head when he heard this: "Boss Lin, unlike a casino, the gold futures market has its own set of rules. Although the dealer can force a takeover when necessary, I can tell you very clearly that the gold price of $366 per ounce may have been the psychological bottom line of the dealers in the past, but at the beginning of this big cycle, it is definitely not the psychological bottom line of these dealers now;"

At this point, Song Wenxuan raised his head confidently: "In fact, according to the judgment of Mr. Yang and I, before the end of this year, the gold price will not only return to the historical high of 8 US dollars per ounce on August 2, but will even rise further!"

"We are not doing long-term investment, nor are we dealing with physical gold. We just need to lock in a price in the New York COMEX and buy one lot for every $0.1... If we want to make convincing results, is there anything more convincing than locking in the psychological peak price of $366?"

Does Yang Mo also agree with this judgment?

The representatives of the two families became somewhat hesitant.

Indeed, whether it is investment or trading, what matters is accurate vision, boldness and carefulness. Both are long on gold, but making a fortune near the psychological peak of 366 US dollars per ounce is different from making a fortune near the price of 360 US dollars per ounce.

Even if Song Wenxuan, who had no military achievements, spoke eloquently, it would not be convincing to them. But Yang Mo actually agreed with this point of view, so they had no choice but to take it seriously.

Although Yang Mo himself seemed to have no experience in finance before, this young man had too many achievements and was too brilliant. As the saying goes, if you master one method, you can master them all. No one would believe that this famous young section chief had no insight into the financial market.

Seeing this, Yang Mo looked at Song Wenxuan and laughed softly: "You two, although we are just testing the waters for a short period of time, you also know that Dahua Company never does anything without confidence. Since I, the junior, have called on various companies to transfer personnel to set up special studios, it is naturally impossible for me to watch them have no initiative in their future work."

At this point, Yang Mo hesitated for a moment, then raised his head and said, "I wonder if you still remember the tens of thousands of one-time experience cards that Mo Ya Zhai deliberately circulated on the market half a month ago?"

Mo Ya Zhai?
One-time trial card? The representatives of the two companies looked at each other, wondering why Yang Mo suddenly brought this up.

As one of the major shareholders of Moyazhai, they naturally knew what a sensation the more than 10,000 one-time experience cards that flowed into the market under the impact of the Sino-Japanese Cultural Festival caused.

Not to mention the extra ones, a one-time experience card with an actual value of only 5 yen was sold for 60 yen, and it was almost in a state of being out of stock. There were hardly many lucky people willing to give up the experience card they had bought with great difficulty.
This directly gave birth to a small industry that could make people rich quickly. Countless middle-class housewives who jumped out to act as scalpers at the first opportunity made a lot of money, and even felt more confident when speaking.

But what does this have to do with gold futures?

Seeing this, Yang Mo smiled gently: "There is an old saying in China that Kung Fu is always outside of poetry."

"To be honest, in the eyes of Dahua Company, the huge revenue contributed by tens of thousands of one-time experience cards is actually not important;"

“Even the Moyazhai, which is at its peak and can contribute countless cash flows every year, is actually not as important as outsiders think;”

"What's really important is... in this process, through these tens of thousands of one-time experience cards, those middle-class housewives are connected and united!"

Those housewives?

The two representatives became even more confused.

Yang Mo picked up the teapot like an ordinary junior and refilled the tea for the representatives of the two families. Then he tilted his head to look at Song Wenxuan and gave the opportunity to show his face to the eldest son of the Song family.

Seeing this, Song Wenxuan said without hesitation: "It's like this. It's very similar to the situation in China. The control of family property in the island country is almost entirely controlled by these housewives... According to the data I got, about 67% of the family savings here are contributed by housewives;"

"Everyone is familiar with the situation in the island countries in recent years. Housewives here are not housewives in the traditional sense of China. In addition to worrying about family life, they also bear the responsibility of family financial management and asset appreciation;"

"That is to say, if you can motivate the housewives of these island countries, then in a sense, you are equivalent to having the ability to control 8% to 12% of the island countries' M2 currency... This is a terrifyingly huge amount of money. If it can be used in a centralized manner, it is enough to affect the direction of any financial market and futures market in the world!"

“Of course, the island nation has over 100 million people, and there is no organization in the world that can really gather these housewives and use them for its own benefit;”

"But this is not important. Just like the well-known 80/20 rule, nearly % of the island nation's household savings and assets are concentrated in the hands of middle-class and above housewives... Among them, the assets held by pure middle-class housewives account for about %... This is already a very large number;"

"Because the financial value-added model is adopted, during the circulation of more than 1 one-time experience cards in the market, the number of middle-class housewives who handled them was far from just over 3, but at least 5, or even more; and these people made a lot of money from this card... After all, the price of each card went from 60 to , so the money that could be made from passing these one-time experience cards on was really not small;"

"If it's just about making money, that's fine. After all, the island nation is a developed country, and there are many more ways to make money;"

"However, the problem is that the social ecology of the island nation is quite fragmented and complex. These one-time experience coupons circulated by middle-class housewives are no longer just commodities... but a proof of their respectability in the circle, their ability, and their right to speak."

At this point, Song Wenxuan shrugged his shoulders and said, "You two should know that in the island country, these housewives often join several, or even dozens of various clubs... In fact, the inner society of the island country today is originally composed of these small clubs and circles one after another."

"So, these middle-class housewives enjoy the feeling of being in the spotlight and praised in these circles, enjoy the respectful words of others begging them to help them get rich together, and also attach great importance to maintaining their status;"

"Then the question is, when maintaining one's status and authority in the circle has become a rigid demand, how can these middle-class housewives meet this demand?"

The representatives of the two companies said without hesitation: "Then it must be to continue making money... No, it is to make money with others. If there is no tangible benefit, why would others keep flattering you!"

Song Wenxuan nodded: "Yes, in a country like the island country, making money is the right thing to do. So the question is... Given the current economic environment and situation of the island country, why should these middle-class housewives make money with their good sisters in the same circle?"

No matter how dumb the representatives of the two families were, they could hear the implication of Song Wenxuan's words: "You mean... we should provide them with a way to make money?"

Song Wenxuan laughed: "That's right, since they made money because of Moyazhai in the first place, most of them would not reject a second cooperation with us out of trust... Besides, with the current economic environment of the island country, how can there be so many ways to make money easily?"

The representatives of the two companies nodded in unison. They finally understood why Yang Mo ignored the opposition and launched a large number of one-time experience coupons to the market even at the expense of the brand value and tone of Moyazhai... After all this fuss, he wanted to create a special channel mainly targeting middle-class housewives!

Seeing this, Song Wenxuan kept smiling: "Now you know why Boss Yang said that we don't have any initiative at all, right?"

"In fact, what we need to do is very simple. When we select a price in COMEX, we will immediately connect and connect these middle-class housewives;"

"The money-making scheme provided to them is also very simple;"

"It's nothing more than getting them to travel abroad in groups, and then using the opportunity of traveling to hedge the exchange rate while buying a lot of gold products;"

"Well... recently the interest rate differential between Japan and the United States has been stable at 5% for a long time, and the interest rate differential between the Australian dollar and the Japanese yen is as high as 6%. In addition to the Australian dollar, the exchange rates of the Hong Kong dollar, Thai baht, and Malaysian ringgit against the US dollar have also been low. So... if these housewives borrow a large amount of Japanese yen from the bank, and take advantage of the opportunity to travel, while having a good time, they can make a lot of money through exchange rate hedging. Why not do it?"

"The same goes for buying gold products. Gold is hard currency, and the price of gold is rising now. What's wrong with buying some gold as a hedge?"

"I believe everyone is aware of the actual purchasing power of the islanders. Due to the high prices in the islands, these middle-class housewives may not be able to see it in China, but if they go abroad, the purchasing power of each person is terrifying... It doesn't even need to be much, just 10 people buying gold will have a significant impact on the international gold price market;"

"But what these people buy is physical gold, which is different from the paper gold in COMEX, which is actually all virtual numbers. Once actual consumption is formed at the terminal, the price of physical gold will inevitably rise due to the increase in demand, which in turn will drive up the price of futures gold... Unless a big dealer puts a large amount of physical gold into the London market, this upward trend cannot be curbed at all."

At the end, Song Wenxuan smiled strangely: "Although more than 100,000 people buying a large number of gold products on the tourist side can have a certain impact on the spot gold market, this number is far higher than the 30,000 middle-class housewives we connected through Moyazhai;"

"But don't forget, I've stressed before that housewives in island countries all form small circles. If these middle-class housewives are willing to mobilize their neighbors and friends at the rally in the name of supporting their sisters, do you think it's really impossible to reach a scale of 100,000 people?"

"Don't forget that the social and social ecology of the island country is completely different from the region where we are... Besides, housewives who don't have any salary income themselves are a very special group that is easily instigated!"

After hearing Song Wenxuan talk about his dual-line operation ideas and point out the key points, the representatives of the two companies immediately fell into deep thought.

Although Song Wenxuan's plan sounded a bit far-fetched, they knew that it was actually very feasible.

In fact, "domestic loans + overseas travel + exchange rate cashing" was the first stage of operation for the Watanabe wives a few years later, and it was also their first step to become famous.

As for purchasing large quantities of gold products.

We are all from the East Asian cultural circle. Since the Chinese aunts of later generations can go abroad to buy up gold on a large scale, and even became an indelible nightmare for the COMEX dealers, why is it impossible for these middle-class housewives in these island countries to slightly increase their love for gold products under deliberate guidance?

You have to know that when the Watanabe ladies traveled abroad, they also bought a lot of gold products, but they were not as crazy as the Chinese aunts in later generations.

………………

As expected, anyone with Chinese blood still retains the basic principle of "putting reality first" in their bones;
Therefore, although the representatives of the two companies did not know much about finance, once Song Wenxuan proposed the "virtual + real" dual-line operation idea, they had already been willing to help, so they easily agreed to Yang Mo's request.

Seeing the other party nod in agreement, Yang Mo breathed a sigh of relief, and then smiled meaningfully: "Uncle Lin, Uncle Chen... Especially Uncle Lin, you must seize this opportunity... There are tens of thousands, or even hundreds of thousands of middle-class housewives in the island country, such a large wave of high-quality tourists. If you don't prepare well, you will waste such a large wave of traffic!"

Upon hearing this, the representative of the Lin family could not help but nod heavily, and the excitement in his eyes could not be concealed.

As mentioned above, although the Lin family started out in the gambling industry, their focus in the past two years has shifted towards the tourism industry. Therefore, this wave of high-quality tourists, ranging from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands, is of great significance to them (don’t be confused by the tourism data of each province. Number of people ≠ person-times. Hundreds of thousands of ordinary domestic tourists can make Zibo a top-tier city. Moreover, the scale of the Lin family is far from comparable to that of a prefecture-level city. Moreover, these tens of thousands of tourists are all middle-class housewives from the island country with abundant disposable funds?)
Official people are really reliable!
If this two-line plan can really be implemented as planned, the little profit obtained in the gold futures market will be nothing. The actual benefits obtained by the two companies will not only far exceed those of Dahua Company in terms of direct benefits, but the long-term value will be immeasurable!
No, even if they suffered losses in the gold futures market, the two companies would definitely have gained more by losing sesame seeds!
In name, this was Dahua Company seeking help from us, but in reality, it was the country’s thank you gift to these patriotic overseas Chinese!
Thinking of this, the representatives of the two families couldn't help but feel warm in their hearts, and felt that all the efforts of the two families in the past few years were worth it.

The representative of the Lin family pondered for a while, took a deep breath, and suddenly raised his head: "Boss Yang, you also know that our Lin family has been transforming into the tourism industry in the past two years. I'm not afraid of you laughing at me. Our Lin family believes that we have some experience in tourism planning and landscape design."

"So... after I go back this time, I plan to propose at the clan meeting that I want to invest in some tourist attractions in the country;"

"I heard that Texas is also planning to develop its own tourism industry, so... Mr. Yang, would you mind letting us come over and take advantage of it?"

Like all old-school Chinese people, the Lin family representative spoke very humbly.

In fact, although China at that time was not in ruins, the backwardness of various facilities was obvious to all.

Even though Dezhou has become quite popular in the tourism sector due to the existence of the commercial demonstration zone, in fact, apart from the two commercial streets in Dahua Industrial Park, the main urban area of ​​Dezhou has no tourism resources at all.

Therefore, when overseas Chinese like the Lin family come back to invest in China, and they bring design concepts that are more than one generation advanced to invest in tourism in inland areas like Texas, the local authorities would probably be eager to set off firecrackers on the streets, but in the mouths of the other party, it becomes a kind of "taking advantage" similar to humbly asking for food...

This is evident from the old-school Chinese people’s style of dealing with people;
The goodwill that the other party returns the favor can also be seen.

Seeing that a business cooperation negotiation meeting had turned into a "goodwill exchange meeting" between relatives and friends, Yang Mo sighed helplessly.
After suppressing the smile at the corner of his mouth with great difficulty, Yang Mo expressed his gratitude very humbly: "In this case, I would like to thank Uncle Lin on behalf of Texas."

At this point, Yang Mo turned around and pointed at Wang Yinuo, who had remained silent throughout the entire process. "However, everything has its own rules. The ice-breaking journey between China and the United States has not yet been completed. Malaysia has its own difficulties in the middle. Therefore, if Uncle Lin and you directly connect with Texas, I am afraid it will cause you a lot of inconvenience;"

"So, how about we trouble Director Wang? His main job now is to deepen exchanges with overseas Chinese. If this project is approved in the name of overseas Chinese aiding the hometown, not only will it be green-lit domestically, but your Lin family will also have less trouble in Malaysia."

Hearing Yang Mo go around in a circle and then insert himself in, Wang Yinuo looked at him in surprise.

Good boy, after all this fuss, you brought me, an outsider, here just for this!
(End of this chapter)