Gou was a member of the imperial family in the late Ming Dynasty

Chapter 1208 Luring the wolf into the house
“This…” Wang Jinwu frowned, a map of Yunnan flashing through his mind as he considered the likelihood of this happening.

Although Zhang Xianzhong's second plan was riskier than the first, the greater the risk, the greater the reward. In addition, given the special nature of Yunnan, if Sha Dingzhou was determined to do it, he could catch Mu Tianbo off guard and might actually succeed.

As a general, Wang Jinwu had personally experienced frontline combat many times, gaining valuable experience from the grassroots level. In particular, when he first began to distinguish himself, he was a fierce general leading cavalry charges in Mongolia. Over the years, as Wang Jinwu's rank and status rose, he no longer personally went into battle as before, but mostly commanded from the rear, making overall plans.

Even so, Wang Jinwu was different from those generals who were steady and cautious, seeking no merit but avoiding mistakes in battle. He was not only fierce in battle, but also had a certain adventurous spirit. Otherwise, Zhu Shenzhui would not have appointed Wang Jinwu as the commander-in-chief in either the Great Wall War or the later Liaodong War.

Like Hong Chengchou, Wang Jinwu put himself in Sha Dingzhou's shoes and considered what he would choose. After careful consideration, Wang Jinwu felt that if he were in Zhang Xianzhong's shoes, he would probably be more risky and take the detour to attack Yongchang, seize Yongchang with overwhelming force, and eliminate Mu Tianbo first.

Once Mu Tianbo falls into Sha Dingzhou's hands, the situation in Yunnan will drastically change, regardless of his life or death. The previously hesitant chieftains will also change their stance and pledge allegiance to Sha Dingzhou. In this scenario, even with Yang Weizhi present, along with the White-Spear Army from Sichuan and the Guizhou army, it will likely be difficult to salvage the situation in Yunnan. Once Yunnan is entirely in Sha Dingzhou's hands, it will be much more difficult for the imperial court to reclaim it and quell the rebellion. It will likely be another Bozhou campaign, requiring the deployment of hundreds of thousands of elite troops and the squandering of millions of taels of silver to quell the Yunnan rebellion.

Thinking of this, Wang Jinwu's face turned somewhat grim. He subconsciously looked up at Hong Chengchou opposite him and found that Hong Chengchou also had a solemn expression.

"Your Majesty, esteemed officials, the second point is merely my suggestion, but in my opinion, I doubt that Sha Dingzhou would have the courage to do it."

"Why is that?" Hong Chengchou couldn't help but ask. Zhang Xianzhong smiled and said, "I think Sha Dingzhou didn't have the courage because of the previous Battle of Chuxiong. In the Battle of Chuxiong, Sha Dingzhou fought like a madman, sparing no expense. It was questionable whether Yang Weizhi could truly hold it. Yang Weizhi also admitted this in his report. After Sha Dingzhou withdrew his troops, Chuxiong suffered more than half its casualties. Even Yang Weizhi himself was fighting on the city walls at the time. The situation was extremely dangerous. If Sha Dingzhou had continued his fierce attack for a few more days regardless of the casualties, Chuxiong might have fallen into his hands. But Sha Dingzhou withdrew his troops at that time. This shows that Sha Dingzhou did not have the determination to go all in."

Hong Chengchou nodded in agreement, and even Wang Jinwu agreed that Zhang Xianzhong's judgment was correct. Sha Dingzhou was quite ambitious, and his plans for raising an army were thorough, catching the court off guard and almost allowing him to succeed completely.

However, Sha Dingzhou made a series of mistakes after launching the Kunming Incident, or rather, squandered a great opportunity. He clearly had the ability to kill Mu Tianbo in Kunming, but Mu Tianbo broke through the encirclement. Moreover, after Mu Tianbo escaped from Kunming, Sha Dingzhou did not immediately send a large army to intercept and pursue him, but only sent a force of a thousand men to follow. In the end, Mu Tianbo used a feint attack and a desperate attempt to escape, and although he lost his mother and wife, he managed to escape alive, thus causing Sha Dingzhou's efforts to fail at the last minute.

That wasn't all; next, Sha Dingzhou's reaction was a beat too slow. Instead of immediately advancing westward to attack Chuxiong, he waited until he received news that Mu Tianbo was moving from Wuding towards Chuxiong before deploying his troops. By the time he arrived in Chuxiong, Mu Tianbo was no longer there. At this point, Sha Dingzhou led his troops in a fierce attack on Chuxiong, but despite fighting for half a month against Yang Weizhi's defenses, he still couldn't capture Chuxiong.

At this point, Chuxiong had suffered more than half its troops killed or wounded due to insufficient manpower and the intensity of the battle. Even if Yang Weizhi was capable of holding out, his forces were still limited. If Sha Dingzhou had pressed on, even if it meant going all in, he should have been able to capture Chuxiong at a certain cost. However, Sha Dingzhou unexpectedly withdrew his troops. After losing several thousand men, he abandoned his plan to continue the attack on Chuxiong and led his army back to Kunming. This gave Chuxiong a chance to regroup and allowed Yang Weizhi to escape a disaster.

In addition, there are many other circumstances, which will not be listed one by one. In short, Sha Dingzhou's abilities and actions after launching the rebellion made several mistakes, revealing his ambition but lack of talent. Therefore, Zhang Xianzhong's judgment has some merit. However, after all, they were not Sha Dingzhou, and they did not know what Sha Dingzhou was thinking. Such a judgment can only be used as a reference.

"Could there be a third one?" At this moment, Zhu Shenzhui, who had been silent until now, asked.

Zhang Xianzhong hesitated for a moment before replying, "Your Majesty, there are three reasons."

"Tell me carefully."

"Yes!" Zhang Xianzhong bowed and said, "As for the third reason, Sha Dingzhou is holding back, waiting for our reinforcements to attack, and may even be worried that if his stronghold is occupied, his troops will move south to ensure the safety of his rear."

Upon hearing this, the members of the General Staff nodded slightly, as this was the general consensus. In their view, Sha Dingzhou was not a true general, nor even a warlord; at best, he was merely a rebellious chieftain.

Based on the General Staff's understanding of Sha Dingzhou, they all felt that Sha Dingzhou was highly likely to hesitate. Moreover, Sha Dingzhou started his power base in eastern Yunnan, and his territory and stronghold were his foundation. He would absolutely not sit idly by and watch his stronghold be occupied or even threatened.

Once Qujing falls to the Ming army, Sha Dingzhou will likely fear a Ming advance south to attack his home base. To ensure its safety, he might redeploy troops south, dividing his forces to defend Kunming and his home base. This would shift Sha Dingzhou's offensive to a defensive posture, buying time for the Ming army in Yunnan. Whether it's the Sichuan White-Spear Army or the Guizhou army coming to reinforce, they can deploy their forces calmly, maintaining control over whether they advance westward or southward. Furthermore, Mu Tianbo, Yang Weizhi, and others can use this opportunity to continue gathering and mobilizing troops, firmly holding Chuxiong, while simultaneously persuading the local chieftains and forces who are observing from the sidelines. After a period of stalemate, the advantage will shift from Sha Dingzhou's side to the Ming army, at which point the opportunity for a full-scale counterattack will arrive.

"That's all?" Zhu Shenzhui asked Zhang Xianzhong with a half-smile, "Besides these, there must be others, right? Zhang Xianzhong, speak your mind boldly!"

Zhang Xianzhong subconsciously looked up at the emperor, then quickly lowered his head again. He was conflicted, wondering whether he should speak or not. To be honest, his final decision was merely his own opinion, something he had never discussed with anyone before. He thought he had said enough, but the emperor had seen through his thoughts, and now it was impossible for him to remain silent.

Gritting his teeth, Zhang Xianzhong raised his head again and said, "I do have another opinion, which is that I am worried that Sha Dingzhou will give up and let the wolf into the house!"

"Inviting wolves into the house? What do you mean by that?" Wu Xiang asked, frowning. Zhang Xianzhong had never mentioned this in their usual discussions before; this was the first time he had said it, leaving Wu Xiang puzzled.

“Tell me in detail!” Zhu Shenzhui asked.

Zhang Xianzhong bowed and continued, "I believe that if Sha Dingzhou chooses the third path, then his defeat is only a matter of time. But in that case, Sha Dingzhou will become a true trapped beast, and he will absolutely not be able to turn the tide on his own."

“Although Sha Dingzhou was not a hero, he could be considered an ambitious man and would never be willing to die in defeat. At that time, Sha Dingzhou was almost like a drowning man, grasping at any straw to save his life. He would use any means necessary.”

At this point, Zhang Xianzhong hesitated for a moment, then subconsciously swallowed: "I think that if Sha Dingzhou wants to break the deadlock, he probably can't do it on his own. He can only rely on external forces. Yunnan is located on the border. To the south are Siam and Laos, to the southeast is Annam, and to the north is Burma."

"Currently, the Duke of Qian is in Yongchang, which is very close to Myanmar. If something happens in Myanmar, and the Burmese army suddenly attacks Yunnan from the west, directly taking over Ganya Pacification Commission and continuing their advance, Yongchang will likely fall into their hands. If Yongchang is lost, whether the Duke of Qian is captured or killed, the situation in Yunnan will collapse instantly, and Shading Prefecture will have a chance to be revived, thus..."

Zhang Xianzhong didn't say his final words aloud, but everyone understood what he meant.

"Impossible! Absolutely impossible!" Cao Wenzhao suddenly stood up and retorted loudly.

Not only Cao Wenzhao, but even He Renlong and Huang Degong, who had just expressed their different opinions, also voiced their opposition. Zuo Liangyu looked deep in thought, Cao Bianjiao's expression was uncertain, Wu Xiang looked surprised, Hong Chengchou and Wang Jinwu looked solemn with their brows furrowed, and as for Emperor Zhu Shenzhui, although he remained calm, his left hand, which was placed to the side, involuntarily clenched.

“Burma is a vassal state of our Great Ming Dynasty. How can it aid and abet evil? How can it lead troops to invade our Great Ming territory? Doesn’t Burma fear our Great Ming’s retaliation? Moreover, what benefit would Burma gain from sending troops to Yunnan at this time?” Cao Wenzhao couldn’t help but question Zhang Xianzhong.

"A vassal state? Heh." Zhang Xianzhong had already said what he should and shouldn't have said, so a few more words wouldn't make a difference. He immediately sneered, "Burma was not only a vassal state of my Great Ming, but it was also once the Pacification Commissioner's Office of my Great Ming! So what?"

"Back then, our Great Ming Dynasty established the Three Xuan and Six Wei. During the Yongle era, our Great Ming Dynasty had more than 140 vassal states. But how many are there now? Over the years, not only have the number of vassal states decreased sharply, but even the Three Xuan and Six Wei of yesteryear are no longer what they used to be. Not to mention Burma, even Annam was once part of our Great Ming Dynasty's territory. What is it like now?"

With a flick of his sleeve, Zhang Xianzhong said, “For nearly a hundred years, Burma has only had the name of a vassal state with our Great Ming, but not the substance of one. Has the King of Burma ever come to pay homage to our Great Ming in recent years? Has he ever paid tribute? Has he ever asked our Great Ming for investiture when the monarch changed? The so-called vassal state of Burma has become a mere formality. The current Burmese king, Mangshi, has little respect for our Great Ming, especially his brother Mangbai.”

"The General Staff has been collecting intelligence from various sources over the years, including not only domestic intelligence but also intelligence from neighboring countries. In my spare time, I have carefully reviewed some of it. I believe that Burma harbors wolfish ambitions and has long coveted the territory of Yunnan, our Great Ming Dynasty, but has simply lacked the opportunity. Now that Yunnan is in chaos, it is Burma's chance. If I were the King of Burma, I might take advantage of the situation and launch an attack to seize Yunnan's territory. Once the territory is taken, it will naturally become Burmese land in due time. Even if the court wants to punish Burma, it will have to wait until it destroys Sha Ding Prefecture before it can free up its resources. Even if it attacks Burma, so what? Can the court's army really conquer Burma and establish a permanent presence there? If so, Annam serves as a cautionary tale!"

(End of this chapter)