What's wrong with me being a rich man?
Chapter 687 This one really doesn't exist
Chapter 687 This one really doesn't exist (4k)
Brexit, an outcome that surprised most people, quickly became the biggest black swan event of the year.
Before the referendum, media outlets had compiled predictions from various organizations, with 23% believing that Britain would remain in the EU. Even though the latest polls show that the two opinions are now almost identical, the suspense still seems to be minimal.
A typical example is an interview conducted by the Financial Times in February, in which more than half of the 2000 respondents said they would vote for Brexit, while only 33% of respondents wanted to remain in the EU. However, 47% of Brexit supporters had one hidden condition.
They indicated that Britain might change its mind if it could defend its rights in negotiations with the EU.
This kind of interview also forms the basis of many institutions' understanding that Brexit is merely a means to seize more benefits from the EU, and that Britain will never truly leave.
On the morning of the 24th, Li Song leaped into the air and became the little stock god of Lingang, but the voting results were not yet fully in.
The latest news he and Xu Xin, along with many media outlets and organizations, received was that the pound had plummeted because Sunderland, the UK's first constituency, was the first to announce its results, taking the lead in Brexit, which immediately caused a shock.
The results of this constituency have taken everyone by surprise, and Brexit seems to have transformed from a bargaining chip into a real possibility.
Despite not having slept all night, Li Song was no longer tired at this moment. He was excitedly watching the vote counts for more constituencies while listening to the updates from the Hong Kong Peak Foundation.
He was under a lot of pressure.
Because of his reputation as the "King of Short Selling" and his track record, the Peak Hedge Fund is highly favored by international funds. Some of the funds come from sources he knows, such as those led by Germany's Mertz, and domestic funds are channeled through IDG. However, there are some funds that even he is unaware of.
However, there is no doubt that there is a lot of power behind the funds.
Therefore, when hedge funds began betting on Brexit, internal doubts and pressures came first.
The Peak Fund is not a safe haven once it receives funds. Although there is a lock-up period, it does not mean that it can be fine even if it loses all the money. On the contrary, there are strict restrictions. Once the fund's net asset value falls below 0.85, which is a 15% drawdown, it cannot open new positions and can only close or reduce its positions.
Once the net asset value falls to 0.75, all futures, forex, options, short positions, and leveraged positions must be closed unconditionally within 24 hours. Only cash, US Treasury bonds, and other assets can be retained, and related permissions will be frozen.
If it reaches 0.7, then forced liquidation will be necessary.
Li Song was very happy that President Yu had asked him to be the actual person in charge of the hedge fund, but he was also very uneasy after learning about the fund's capital strategy. Brexit and Remain are two completely different market responses, and betting on one side is no different from gambling.
If the gamble fails, the newly listed Peak Fund might quickly go bankrupt.
So, while he was carrying out the work according to the big boss's intentions, he also felt deeply uneasy, feeling that he had fallen into a huge conspiracy.
However, all of this was shattered on the morning of the 24th!
Xu Xin was also wide awake, but looking at her radiant husband and listening to his endless phone calls and boasting, she couldn't help but point out the reality.
"It's one thing for you to call yourself a stock market guru in private, but how dare you say that on the phone? Have you forgotten when you were lying in bed muttering to yourself? Have you forgotten when you thought you were so amazing?"
Li Song didn't answer his wife immediately. Instead, he took out a gold watch from the drawer, put it on, looked down at it, and then said in a pretentious manner, "A person should be looked at with new eyes after just one hour. That's how people are. There will be times when they doubt themselves, but people should never really deny themselves. Ms. Xu, this is some of my life experience."
Xu Xin: "..."
She looked up and sighed, "You think you're qualified to talk to me about life experience? Why don't you wait until the official results are out this afternoon?"
Li Song shook his head slightly: "The official results will be released this afternoon, and that will be the time for me to write my book and biographies."
Xu Xin remained silent for three seconds, then couldn't hold back any longer: "Yu Xing is truly blind."
"If President Yu were blind, would we have carbon silicon today? If President Yu were blind, would we have become the world-renowned king of short sellers?" Li Song laughed heartily. "It was precisely because President Yu had such keen insight and personally pointed me out that I was able to achieve some small successes with the Guoshanfeng Fund."
He remarked with emotion, "Indeed, I sometimes inevitably have self-doubt. I'm so grateful to Mr. Yu for recognizing my talent; otherwise, a potential genius like me would have been buried!"
The final outcome is not yet fully clear, but the pound, futures, forex shorts, and safe-haven assets such as gold have all shown fluctuations that corroborate Brexit, and the financial market is increasingly leaning toward a black swan event.
The number of phone calls Li Song received began to decrease, and he quickly explained the details of those calls.
He took a piece of bread from the refrigerator, didn't heat it up, and just ate it dryly. He then made himself a simple cup of coffee and sat down at the table, holding his breath and concentrating.
Xu Xin, unaware of his new illness, asked, "What are you doing now?"
Li Songping calmly said, "I'll wait for President Yu's call. He will definitely see me as soon as possible."
Looking at his behavior, Xu Xin really didn't know what to say. But thinking about the $20 billion size of the Peak Hedge Fund and its allocation across different assets, it was hard not to feel envious.
Looking back at this matter, she realized that it wasn't just Guo Shanfeng who bet on Brexit; the infamous George Soros also publicly believed that Britain would leave the EU, and according to Li Song, a small number of other institutions made the same bet.
These short sellers...
Xu Xin felt inexplicably uneasy, but she soon received a call from an investor in her own Capital Today, from the family office in the United States.
"Mr. Xu, has Capital Today also invested in Peak Fund?"
Xu Xin immediately denied it: "No, Capital Today is not involved in these matters, and we have no connection."
The person on the other end of the phone asked, "Why isn't there any connection?"
Xu Xin paused for two seconds, then had to point out the question the other party had asked her when he called her at the end of last year: "Mr. Robert, you asked me the opposite question last December: why am I associated with President Yu? In fact, Capital Today is just a purely financial investment relationship. There is no other connection or business dealings, including the one you asked me today."
Robert sighed, "Then why was Mr. Li Song in charge of the Peak hedge fund? Was there really no financial dealings between them?"
Xu Xin glanced at Li Song, who was still sitting upright at the table, and gritted her teeth, saying, "That's his job and his choice. There really was no business involved!"
After a moment of silence, Robert said, "That's a good idea."
He added, "Since Capital Today has the resources, it could certainly try it on a small scale. Perhaps we could hold an investor conference and set up a special sub-fund." This is clearly inconsistent with the philosophy that Capital Today has promoted in the past.
Xu Xin asked, "Why?"
Robert said earnestly, "We must respect the market and respect the winners."
Xu Xin hung up the phone with mixed feelings. From questioning "Why is it related?" to hoping "Why isn't it related?", everything was related to the Brexit signal that morning.
Similarly, even as Brexit signals become increasingly clear, a phone call could immediately reverse the outcome if the afternoon's results are reversed.
Xu Xin put down her phone, pondered for a long time, and asked Li Song, "You said you received Germans in Lingang last time. Does President Yu have some inside information? Isn't that person a politician who transitioned to business? Isn't he very influential?"
It was hard for her not to be suspicious, especially knowing that the newly established hedge fund, Guoshanfeng, had European funds flowing in and was now profiting from EU affairs.
Li Song shook his head: "How could that be? There's absolutely no such thing. Don't try to smear President Yu with insider trading rumors."
After a moment, he had to carefully consider his words and said, "At least, what I know is that there isn't. Does President Yu have any more inside information? Hmm... maybe he does."
Xu Xin pondered the answer "maybe," and sighed softly, "Even if someone really said this so-called inside information, they'd have to actually believe it."
A major event like Brexit is bound to have many conflicting sources of information, and it's almost impossible to verify anything until the very last moment.
Li Song nodded seriously: "Yes, so whether there's any inside story or not doesn't matter. What matters is the result we have now."
Xu Xin got up and made herself a cup of coffee, silently refreshing the latest news from Europe, also wanting to hear the phone message from President Yu as soon as possible.
However, Mr. Yu's call was delayed, as if he had not received the news of the UK's lead in Brexit at all.
At 9:30 a.m., more shocks gradually emerged, but when the Hong Kong stock market opened, the silicon carbon group, which had been fluctuating for days, quickly rose by six points, which was completely opposite to the overall trend of the market.
As Asia's financial center, Hong Kong is naturally paying close attention to the referendum information. The stock market fell 384 points during the opening auction, and the market was in a state of panic regarding the Brexit information released by the constituencies.
However... the recent surge in the stock price of Silicon Carbon Group, which has not released any good news, is quite strange.
Soon, insiders revealed the funding strategy of "Mountain Peaks" in this referendum. It is clearly a minority of Brexit supporters, and given the current situation, it is likely to make a fortune.
Hong Kong media quickly followed up and confirmed the situation. After confirmation from several financial professionals familiar with the industry, it was found that Peak Capital Hedge Fund is indeed a high-stakes gambler that has left a deep impression.
— He devoured the entire river! The king of short sellers bet on Brexit, reaping huge profits from global market turmoil!
—So accurate it's unbelievable? The Brexit trajectory was predicted early on; there must be some top-secret inside story!
— Central District explodes! A major short seller made a fortune from Brexit, shocking the entire financial world!
Even before the Brexit results were fully announced, the performance of companies like Silicon Carbon Group and Peak Capital Management was quickly reported, and previous warnings spread rapidly both domestically and internationally.
After his identity as the "King of Short Sellers" was exposed, Guo Shanfeng sought legitimate operations, launched an official website, and even published his views on the global financial market during the Chinese New Year, one of which mentioned being wary of the risks of Brexit.
At the time, Guo Shanfeng's serious mention of Brexit, amidst lingering suspicions of insider dealings, was seen by those in the industry as pointless, extreme, or an attempt to divert public attention. But looking back at that warning today…
Damn, no wonder it was called a New Year's gift that time!
The research report before the holiday that crossed the mountain peak mentioned only three things: first, the continued weakness of the European financial sector this year; second, the potential poor performance of some emerging markets; and third, the need to be wary of the geopolitical impact of the possible Brexit.
Looking back now, all three points were basically correct, and if we had followed those suggestions to allocate funds at the time…
If this isn't a New Year's gift, what the hell is it?
The research report from Guo Shanfeng has become popular again, not only in Hong Kong and mainland financial circles, but also in well-known overseas media such as Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal, who have reviewed the warning from the "King of Short Sellers" in their latest reports.
By that afternoon, with the pound sterling plummeting and gold soaring, the black swan event had officially taken shape, and the official announcement from Manchester was like a formality to seal the deal.
At 7:20 a.m. local time (2:20 p.m. Beijing time), the UK officially announced the results of the Brexit referendum.
From the first constituency announcement to the official announcement, the pound sterling experienced a maximum intraday drop of 13%, setting a record since 1985. Just one hour later, British Prime Minister David Cameron issued a statement announcing his resignation, instantly exacerbating market volatility.
Amidst the widespread decline in stock markets both domestically and internationally, a few institutions that have clearly demonstrated profitability stand out.
Soros, O'Di Asset Management, Peak Capital, Saba Capital, and quantitative firms like AQR Asset Management and Winton Capital Management have all emerged as winners in this Brexit black swan event.
Guo Shanfeng has been implicated in this incident, and there are also research reports to support his claims. Many previously unearthed statements have been brought up again, and some people in the media even say that Guo Shanfeng deeply manipulated Brexit...
Looking at the comments on platforms like Baixiaosheng and Douyin, Yu Xing shared the same feeling as Li Song: What have I done to deserve this...?
He made a rare appearance on Douyin, where he tapped on a news story he claimed to have manipulated, with the caption: "This really didn't happen."
Once the Douyin video was confirmed to be of Yu Xing himself, many questions appeared in the comments section.
—No, there really isn't. Is there any inside information?
—I regret not listening to President Yu's New Year's gift. If you're going to give a gift during the New Year, why not give one in the middle of the year? If not in the middle of the year, then give one at the end of the year!
—Mr. Yu, how about letting Guo Shanfeng wish everyone an early Happy New Year?
—As long as Mr. Yu points out the way, I'm willing to buy ten silicon carbide vehicles.
Looking at the wide variety of comments, Yu Xing replied with one: "Buy a car and check the sales figures."
This time, many people actually posted videos of themselves in silicon carbon stores, and some even asked the store clerks for advice on manipulation in the financial markets.
Yu Xing was tagged in the comments section of the relevant video. Although he knew everyone was joking, he still said, "Finance involves risks, so please be cautious when investing."
Soon, another comment he made on Douyin was screenshotted and spread: "Machines are more ruthless than compassionate; quantification surprised me."
(End of this chapter)
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