Glorious Mission 1937

It’s not that Mitsumasa Minai disagrees with going to war with China, on the contrary, he supports Japan’s invasion of China. Like all Japanese in this era, Mitsumasa Minai also firmly believes that external expansion is the only way out for Japan.However, he does not support a whole-nation war with China. Minai Mitsumasa believes that to deal with a huge and weak country like China, gradually encroaching is the most correct tactic, and conducting a long-term attrition war with the whole nation is the most stupid approach.

Because of this, when the Marco Polo Bridge Incident broke out on July 1937, 7, Minay, who was then the Minister of the Navy, advocated not to expand the situation, and said on his own initiative when answering questions from members of the special parliament: "The army's combat range will not exceed Yongding. River and Baoding line", the Minister of War Gen Sugiyama who was sitting next to him turned pale with anger.

However, as the former Prime Minister of Japan, Mitsumasa Yonei is different from ordinary Japanese military officers after all, and his vision is farther.He is well aware of the predicament Japan is facing now. The Japanese Empire and the Japanese Navy are not as powerful as they appear on the surface. First of all, Japan's not very developed economy severely limits the scale of this war. Scale up as far as the economy can accommodate, and Japan may be able to hold out for a while.But the problem now is that the scale of this war has already far exceeded the limit that Japan's national economy can bear. If it continues to fight, not only will it not get the slightest benefit, but it will also drag down Japan's economy.

It is no wonder that Minai Mitsumasa is so determined to end the war. At this time, the speed and extent of the deterioration of the Japanese economy have exceeded many people's estimates. Since the war has been protracted for a long time, the scale of the war has continued to expand, which has led to Japan's financial crisis. On the brink of collapse.Direct military expenditures, which account for 70% to 80% of budgetary expenditures, have risen sharply, increasing national expenditures year by year.

1936年到1940年4年度间，日本预算支出累计达488亿日元，较前5年的累计额10755亿日元增长近4倍，这引起税收大幅度增长，税收总额由1936／1937年度的20亿日元。上升到1939／1940年度的58亿日元；按户数平均计，每户税收负担更增加了2倍以上。

The most direct negative impact of such a high tax is that after 1937, the living standards of the working people in Japan declined, and the national commodity turnover decreased sharply. It was already facing insurmountable difficulties to continue to expand the tax amount.In order to make up for the growing fiscal deficit, the government had to resort to the issuance of public debt and banknotes to a greater extent.

In 1931, Japan's national debt was 60 billion yen, which first increased to 1937 billion yen in 105.Then it increased to 1940 billion yen in 286. At the beginning of 1939, the amount of government bonds issued was even close to the total amount of idle national working capital at that time; the subsequent forced sale of government bonds was actually a search for and concentration of working capital for private enterprises, which of course caused damage to the reproduction process , and the expansion of reproduction is the basis for a further increase in public bond issuance.Correspondingly, the compulsory sale of public bonds has also encountered more and more difficulties.

After the July 1937th Incident, the situation of making ends meet became more serious.It became routine to cover deficits with the help of printing presses.During this period, Japan's currency issuance also increased significantly, from 2310 billion yen at the end of 1940 to 59 billion yen in [-], far exceeding the total value of commodities in circulation, resulting in Rising inflation.The impact of inflation on the normal circulation of capital and commodities at that time was opposed by the industrialists and businessmen represented by the Gerakan Party.It became one of the reasons for the intensification of internal strife in the ruling group.The sharp depreciation of paper currency is a naked plunder of the people, and it causes the price of commodities including military supplies to skyrocket, thus continuously expanding the government's fiscal deficit.

In Minai Mitsumasa's view, Japan has now fallen into a comprehensive vicious circle. For this war that should not be fought for such a long time, the gold and foreign exchange reserves accumulated by the Japanese government over the years have all bottomed out, and military expenditures have reached at least 400 billion. JPY.A full 400 Yamato-class warships can be built.In this war, Japan has turned all the foreseeable and considerable benefits into guns and medicines that are consumed. If this continues, Japan will definitely be dragged down by this war. [

Minai Mitsumasa's words resonated with a large number of military and political officials who participated in the imperial meeting. Although the army still disagreed with the truce, the vast majority of politicians realized the crisis. Japan really should not invest more in this war. human, financial and material resources.

Politicians understand the inner meaning of war better than soldiers, and war is the continuation of politics.War is not for fun, but for profit.Adhering to the principle of maximizing benefits, if you invest too much in this war, then you will get less benefits.So many politicians began to speak out in support of Minet.

In fact, they have always understood this truth, but before they always thought that the Great Japanese Empire was invincible, and for every extra yen invested today, they would get several yen in return in the future.However, the reality of the situation shattered all their extravagant hopes. The strong rise of China's eighth war zone and the strong counterattack of the Chinese government have made Japan's military advantage smaller and smaller. Now the Chinese can even fight back against the Japanese army on the frontal battlefield. provocations, and can overcome them.

The disastrous defeat of the North China Front made Japan's fanatical ambitions and irrational minds a little clearer, and let them know that Japan is still a small island country like a worm, and it cannot swallow China all at once.

况且除了财政危机之外，日本想要继续打下去还必须要应对日益严重的能源和资源危机，同样还要应对日益严重的粮食危机。全面侵华战争爆发前的日本对外依赖度为:铁矿石523%,铁矾土100%,橡胶100%,石油80%,盐63%,棉花及羊毛999%,废钢铁67%,铜铝铅锌等均为一半及一半以上。日本扩充军备,所以大力发展重工业,虽然使军事重工生产得到很大发展,如钢材产量1929年为203万吨,至1936年为410万吨。煤产量1931年为2800万吨,1936年为4100万吨。

重工业发展必然离不开石油，毕竟没有石油这种工业血液，想要发展重工业那异于痴人说梦。因此这段时间日本石油进口也为之大增,即从1931年的228万千升增长至1936年的451万千升,导致国际收支逆差大增,1936年1-6月,出超27亿日元,而1937年的同期,则入超62亿日元,3-7月的黄金输出额为3亿日元。

1936年全年,日本入超129亿日元,扣除对伪满的出超246亿日元,实际入超达376亿日元,1937年的入超达638亿日元,扣除对伪满及侵华日军占领地区的出超321亿日元,实际入超959亿日元,而到了1939年,在大幅度的削减了民用物资进口之后,日本的进口为2918亿日元,出口为3576亿日元,但扣除对法获取黄金外汇的“日元圈（伪满及侵华日军占领地区）”进出口,进口为2235亿日元,出口为1829亿日元,日本经济力的不足,在1939-1940年度即开始表面化。

首先出现的是粮食供应不足,1939年的日本本土之大米需求量为8千万石,比1936年上升了近1千万石,而在侵华战争爆发前,日本本土每年仅需从台湾、朝鲜输入1300-1400万石大米,而此时,由于战争的因素,日本本土的粮产量自1939年起即一直在下降,自台湾,朝鲜输入大米由于战争及当地的军需等因素,输入额逐年下降,1938年为225万吨,1939年为145万吨,1940年则为48万吨。

为了应对日益严重的粮食危机，日本为此想尽了办法,下令农民要将生产的大米及麦子等粮产品,除自己食用及种子外,都要以官价卖给政府,实行粮食配给,禁止一般的饭店,餐馆出售米饭,大力宣传食用代用食品,规定早饭不能超过1日元,中饭25日元,晚饭5日元,即便如此,仍有900万石的缺口,为此,日本不得不拿出2亿日元的外汇向法属印度支那,泰国进口了800万石大米。

紧随粮食危机而来的是电力与煤炭危机,由于煤炭不足,发电量只能满足80%的需求,到1940年,日本所控制的资源只能满足煤炭需求量的883%,石油的184%,铁矿石的424%,铜的43%,铝的15%,铅锌的184%。

而要得到这些资源,一种办法是通过贸易进口,在侵华战争爆发时,日本银行的黄金储备额包括纸币发行的准备金在内不过135亿日元,而在日俄战争时,日本国硬通货储备为1400万日元,又借得外债8亿日元,合1937年日元价为28亿日元,在侵华战争的巨大消耗下,日本在1936-1941年的国际收支逆差达50亿日元,黄金外汇已所剩几,以至日本不得不开始动用战略储备物资,而日本采取的扩大出口,压缩进口,掠夺占领地,对外借款等各种办法均已效。

More importantly, Japan's foreign trade environment has undergone tremendous changes unknowingly in the past few years. Due to Chen Feng's strong intervention, the United States, which has always supported Japan in the face of a large number of interests, quietly changed its policy, and its trade with Japan was gradually standardized and strict. Almost all strategic resources related to war are included in the embargo, and even food has become a strategic material prohibited from export half a year ago.Japan was extremely angry.

Without the nanny of the United States, Japan will become a motherless child, and it is inevitable to suffer from hunger and cold.These crises were all covered up by the army's brilliant record before, but now that the cover is lifted, all the Japanese are suddenly dumbfounded, and at the same time realize the seriousness of the matter. The empty shell and the 150 million troops are gone.There is no need to argue about whether to fight or to fight. (to be continued...)