In Hong Kong, we build a global business empire

Chapter 805 Supporting the strongest ally!

“Lin, your analysis convinced me. Although I cannot change the board’s collective resolution, as an individual and as a manager in charge of a certain business line, I have decided to take some actions, some actions that Miller and his team may consider ‘rebellious’.”

He paused slightly, observing Lin Haoran's reaction.

Although Lin Haoran was very curious about what actions the other party would take, he remained silent.

He looked calmly at John Reed, as if he already knew the unspoken plan.

This knowing silence only strengthened John Reed's resolve.

In reality, Lin Haoran had no idea what the other party's plan was.

After all, for large corporations like Citibank, major investments generally require a board vote.

"You may know, or you may not know, that in addition to my position at headquarters, I also serve as the chairman of Citigroup's 'Citigroup Foresight Capital'."

"That's an investment entity, well, it's a highly autonomous entity within the Citigroup system. It's not top-tier in size, but it has close to two hundred million US dollars at its disposal!" Reed continued, his tone carrying a hint of desperate gamble.

Upon hearing this, Lin Haoran finally showed a look of surprise in his eyes.

Two hundred million dollars is no small sum.

Even for a financial giant like Citigroup, this is a sum of money that could dramatically change the career of a department head or even a senior vice president.

Even Lin Haoran wouldn't underestimate this sum of money.

Converted to Hong Kong dollars, that's over a billion Hong Kong dollars.

If this money were invested in the capital market, it would be a very large sum of money.

Li Guowei, who was listening from the side, secretly gasped. He had never expected that Mr. John Reed, who was known for his steadiness, would actually have such a force that he could mobilize independently in private.

Even more unexpectedly, he revealed such crucial information to Lin Haoran during their first in-depth conversation.

"I originally planned to follow the board's decision and invest these two hundred million dollars in this 'Reagan rally' to add a bright spot to the performance of 'Forward Capital' and myself."

But now, I've changed my mind, Lin. I trust your judgment!

He practically gritted his teeth as he uttered the last few words: "I plan to use this money to make contrarian moves, following the logic you suggested, such as shorting stock index futures and buying put options in advance!"

You could hear a pin drop in the office.

Everyone present was aware of the risks involved in this decision.

John Reed straightened up and began to pace slowly around the office, as if trying to sort out his turbulent thoughts through his steps, or perhaps to show Lin Haoran and Li Guowei the difficult trade-offs behind his decision.

“I know exactly what this means.” He seemed to be talking to himself, or perhaps seeking some kind of testimony. “It means that I will use almost all of my autonomy to secretly establish short positions amidst the bullish cheers on Wall Street.”

I will use leverage to amplify returns, and of course, amplify risks proportionally. If, even the slightest deviation in your judgment, or if the market's irrational frenzy continues longer than we anticipate…

He stopped and turned to face Lin Haoran, a complex, almost bitter smile on his face: "Then, 'Citigroup Foresight Capital' will face huge losses."

Two hundred million dollars, which could potentially shrink significantly in a short period of time. How will the board view me then? How will Walter view me? How will those who have been eyeing my position, such as Richard Miller, attack me?

His words painted a clear picture of failure: "They won't let this opportunity pass them by. They'll say John Reed has gone mad, bewitched by a 'charlatan' from the East, and is making irresponsible gambles with the company's funds."

They will question my judgment, my stability, even my loyalty. Yes, given my qualifications and past achievements, Citibank might not fire me outright; I might retain the title of senior vice president and have a spacious but powerless office.

His gaze turned serious as he stared intently at Lin Haoran: "But that 'successor' status, which is only one step away from the chairman's throne, will be completely gone from me."

Mr. Riston will not choose someone who has repeatedly failed and made such a 'fatal mistake' as his successor. My influence on the board will plummet, and I will be relegated to the margins. This is the price of losing the gamble.

He laid bare the worst possible outcome, without any attempt to conceal it.

This is both a clear understanding of the risks and an invisible pressure, which was transmitted to Lin Haoran, who proposed this theory.

Lin Haoran said in surprise, "If that's the case, why would Mr. John take such a huge risk? You should know that although my judgment is based on analysis, the market is constantly changing, and no one can guarantee that they are 100% correct."

You've staked almost your entire career.

John Reed took a deep breath and looked out the window at the New York City skyline, a forest of countless ambitions and dreams.

His voice carried a complex mix of excitement and determination: "Why? Because I now completely believe what you say. Your words were like a revelation to me, and I wholeheartedly agree with what you said."

In my opinion, the risks of following the crowd and sticking to the rules are perhaps greater than your seemingly unconventional "contrarian investment"!

However, the next moment, he changed his tone, and a burning flame ignited in his eyes, an extreme desire for power and victory.

"But what if, what if I win the bet?"

"If the market truly reveals its ugly face of high interest rates and huge deficits after the halo of 'Reaganomics' fades, as you predicted, and the stock market plummets in response, then what amazing returns will 'Citigroup Foresight Capital's' two hundred million dollars contrarian operation bring us?"

He calmly continued, "More importantly, at that time, from what height will I be standing? When the board of directors is overwhelmed and humiliated by the investment failure of Citibank's main account, I will be able to deliver an incredibly brilliant, even game-changing, performance report from 'Foresight Capital' right in front of them!"

His words were vivid: “I can clearly tell Walter, and all the directors: 'Look, I saw the risk long ago! While you were all blinded by optimism, only I, John Reed, remained calm and dared to act based on sound judgment! I preserved the company's capital and generated huge profits!'”

"By then, Richard Miller's radical claims will become a joke, and Charles White's mockery will become a slap in his own face."

And I, John Reed, will no longer be that 'steady' and trustworthy senior vice president; I will be that visionary leader who can save the company from collapse!

The board will look at me with new respect; my influence will reach unprecedented heights. The next leader of Citigroup? Who else could it be but me?

He returned to the sofa, sat down heavily, indicating that he was making a very important decision.

"This is a high-stakes gamble, Mr. Lin. I'm betting everything I've built up over the past decade at Citibank—my reputation, my status, and my right to be the heir—on your judgment, on your seemingly contrarian yet logically sound analysis."

He looked at Lin Haoran and said solemnly, "So, before I finally press the execute button, I need you, Lin, to give me one last bit of confidence."

Putting aside all the complex models and data, tell me with your most direct intuition: will we really win? Will the market really turn downwards as you predict soon?

All the groundwork has been laid, and all the risks and rewards have been laid bare.

At this moment, John Reed, a veteran Wall Street figure, is betting the most important gamble of his career on Lin Haoran's next answer.

The atmosphere in the office was a little strange at that moment.

Lin Haoran was so patient in explaining to John Reed not only because he saw John Reed not directly oppose his suggestions as other executive directors did at the board meeting.

Furthermore, Lin Haoran knew the special position of this senior vice president in the power structure of Citibank.

As a time traveler, with his insight beyond this era, Lin Haoran knew clearly that the seemingly mild-mannered senior vice president in front of him would take over the reins from Walter Riston in 1984, less than three years later, and become the new head of Citibank.

This impending power shift places John Reed in a crucial position within Lin Haoran's strategic plan.

In the original timeline, John Reed distinguished himself at Citibank amidst numerous challenges thanks to his prudent management style and keen risk awareness, ultimately rising to the top management position.

Therefore, during the two or three years of cooperation with Citibank, Lin Haoran maintained a very good relationship with John Reed.

For him, it was better to establish a good working relationship with this future leader than to waste energy on conservatives who were destined to be eliminated by the times.

And now, this future leader is betting the most crucial gamble of his career on his own judgment.

This is not just an endorsement of an investment decision, but a deeper level of trust and alliance.

Lin Haoran realized that this was an excellent opportunity to not only prove his foresight, but also to firmly bind this future Citibank leader to his cause.

Faced with John Reed's gaze, a mixture of immense pressure, desperate resolve, and a final, probing look seeking confirmation, Lin Haoran knew that any ambiguous words at this moment would be fatal.

What he needs to be given is absolute, unquestionable confidence.

He didn't answer immediately, but stood up and walked to the huge floor-to-ceiling window, standing side by side with John Reed, overlooking the heart of global finance below.

Outside the window, skyscrapers stand tall and traffic flows like a river; countless fortunes are created and destroyed here.

“Mr. John, do you see this view outside the window?” Lin Haoran’s voice broke the silence.

John Reed was somewhat puzzled, but he nodded nonetheless.

Lin Haoran's gaze swept across the Wall Street financial district outside the window, and he said confidently, "In every building here, there are thousands of traders and analysts, all cheering for the 'Reagan rally' right now. But the truth is often held by a minority."

He turned around, looked directly at John Reed, and continued, "I can tell you definitively that a market shift was inevitable. This is not gambling, but a precise prediction based on economic laws."

In a high-interest-rate environment, corporate financing costs will continue to rise, and the fiscal deficit will snowball. These fundamental factors will eventually be reflected in the stock market.

I assure you, based on my unbroken record in a series of trades in Hong Kong, the United States, and the United Kingdom, that this time will be no exception. If you start positioning yourself now, you will see clear signals of a market reversal within two months at most.

John Reed's breathing became noticeably rapid.

The success stories Lin Haoran cited are precisely what he values ​​most. The judgment of an investment genius who has never made a mistake is worth betting everything on.

However, at this moment, Lin Haoran was recalling a chart in his mind, a chart of the S&P 500 index from 1982 to 1987.

The chart was from a reference book on Reaganomics. He clearly remembered that the S&P 500 began to decline in January 1982, and this decline lasted for as long as seven or eight months.

After that, the S&P 500 index experienced a sustained surge, and the US stock market officially began a mini-bull market.

Now it is November 12, 1981.

Therefore, there are less than two months left before the market turns around.

Lin Haoran clearly remembers that, in the original historical trajectory, the S&P 500 index would have continued to fall from January 1982 until it bottomed out and rebounded in mid-March.

But this was just a period of adjustment. Just when everyone thought the decline had finally stopped, the US stock market began to fall again in mid-May, and this wave of decline did not stop until mid-August.

Of course, Lin Haoran wouldn't reveal such detailed speculation.

He only needs to talk about the situation in the last two or three months, that will be enough.

This means that now is the best time to establish a short position.

"Two months?" John Reed keenly caught this crucial point in time, a hint of surprise flashing in his eyes. "You can actually give such a precise time prediction?"

Lin Haoran smiled slightly, his tone filled with undeniable confidence: "Yes, two months. This is not a guess, but a comprehensive judgment based on the policy effect transmission cycle, the pace of corporate financial report releases, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting schedule."

Before I came to the United States, I actually received this information from your sources through my own channels. After careful study, I finally reached this conclusion.

What a load of rubbish! He only knew what he had read in books in his previous life.

Of course, he had to put on a more respectable tone in front of John Reed.

Upon hearing this, a knowing glint flashed in John Reed's eyes.

He was already surprised by Lin Haoran's accurate judgment, and now that he heard that the conclusion was based on the same data, he immediately felt that it made perfect sense.

After all, that internal document did contain a lot of in-depth analysis and data predictions.

Considering Lin Haoran's past record, John Reed believed Lin Haoran's words even more.

As a professional in finance, he actually agreed with what Lin Haoran said in the conference room.

Afterwards, he invited Lin Haoran to his office, where Lin explained things in more detail, which made John Reed even more convinced of his judgment.

Lin Haoran's analysis is not only logically rigorous, but more importantly, it demonstrates a precise grasp of timing, which is entirely in line with the qualities of a top investor.

Moreover, he believed that the other party had no reason to deceive him, which would only bring harm and no benefit to the other party.

Currently, John Reed is the person with the best relationship with Lin Haoran within the entire Citibank. He believes that Lin Haoran, who has gone to great lengths to enter the ranks of Citibank's executive directors, would not easily give up his most promising ally within Citibank.

As one of the parties involved, John Reed knew that he had put in a lot of effort to persuade those people to agree to let Lin Haoran become the executive director.

Nowadays, it's clear from the meeting room that the executive directors are generally quite resistant to Lin Haoran, the new outsider.

He has always been optimistic about Lin Haoran and was willing to build a good relationship with him because Lin Haoran's investment was so precise that he saw huge potential for cooperation.

“I understand.” John Reed took a deep breath, the last trace of hesitation in his eyes finally disappearing. “Lin, thank you for your honesty. Since you’re so sure, then I have no reason to hesitate either.”

Let's wait and see. If everything goes as you expect, this will be one of the most brilliant contrarian moves in Citibank's history.

Lin Haoran nodded knowingly: "I believe that two months from now, you will be glad you made this decision."

"If things really turn out as we predict, Mr. Lin, I, John Reed, owe you a great favor, and I will repay you handsomely in the future!"

John Reed solemnly extended his hand and shook hands firmly with Lin Haoran.

If their relationship before was merely friendly...

At this moment, the alliance between the two was officially established.

“Mr. John, you flatter me. This is a win-win situation for us. Your ability to establish yourself within Citibank is the greatest help to me,” Lin Haoran said with a polite smile.

Isn't this the biggest reason why Lin Haoran wanted to help John Reed?

He is now an outcast on the board of executive directors of Citibank, ostracized by the other directors.

If he wants to have a real say within Citibank, he must support a powerful ally.

John Reed, the future head of Citibank, is undoubtedly the best candidate.

John Reed would have become the head of Citibank if things had gone according to plan.

Now, with Lin Haoran's help, John Reed's influence among Citibank's core senior management is bound to increase significantly.

Once John Reed consolidates his influence among the core senior management, Lin Haoran's position at Citibank will rise accordingly, and his say will inevitably increase.

As a non-American of Chinese descent, Lin Haoran knew that he could never truly control an American financial giant like Citibank.

Obtaining a seat on the executive board is probably the maximum the US government can tolerate.

Since direct control is impossible, supporting a reliable agent to achieve one's strategic goals is undoubtedly the wisest choice.

This is a win-win collaboration.

John Reed will consolidate his position by leveraging Lin Haoran's accurate judgment, while Lin Haoran will ensure his influence within Citibank by supporting the future leader.

In the future, the chances of resisting the invasion of the "squid man" and preventing the merger between Citibank and Travellers Group will be even greater!
"I presume Mr. John's questions have been answered. If there's nothing else, I'll head back now," Lin Haoran said to John Reed with a smile, glancing at the time.

He had already made an appointment with Su Zhixue to personally visit Huanyu Investment Company.

Although Su Zhixue regularly reported to him via long-distance telephone, it had been too long since he had visited the site in person. Now that he was in New York, he still needed to make a trip there in person.

Of all the companies under his control, Universal Investment Company is undoubtedly the most important and the most valuable.

Even Hongkong Land Group in Hong Kong cannot compare to it.

In recent years, apart from reinvesting some of his profits in the Hong Kong market and diversifying investments in Southeast Asia and Japan, the largest portion of his funds has flowed to Universal Investment Company.

In fact, the vast majority of his profits came from holding shares in several promising US-listed companies through Universal Investment Company, including high-quality targets such as Coca-Cola, Intel, Citibank, Chevron, and ExxonMobil.

For someone who travels through time, this might be the easiest way to make money.

After all, he knows which companies will thrive in the future, become giants in their respective fields, and grow their wealth many times more than others who work hard to run their companies.

“Of course, Lin, thank you for your time today. I will begin to deploy the ‘Foresight Capital’ operation now, and I hope that we can raise a glass here to celebrate in two months.” John Reed shook hands with Lin Haoran again and said solemnly.

"I definitely will," Lin Haoran replied confidently.

After leaving the Citibank Building, Lin Haoran and Li Guowei first returned to the hotel next door.

Entering the hotel suite and sitting on the sofa in the lobby, Li Guowei couldn't help but ask, "Boss, you have so much confidence in John Reed, what if he..."

“There’s no such thing as ‘what if’,” Lin Haoran interrupted. “In Wall Street, and even within Citibank, to gain a foothold, you need reliable allies. You saw it at the board meeting: even if we become executive directors, so what?”

John Reed is not only capable, but more importantly, he understands how to assess situations. Today's choices will determine his future position at Citibank, and also our influence within the bank.

(End of this chapter)