Literary Master 1983

Chapter 246 Another Prediction

Li Yining is a renowned scholar from Yenching University. Starting this year, he will take over from Hu Daiguang and become the new head of the Department of Economics.

Hu Daiguang then became the dean of the economics department, shining brightly in this position, waiting a few more years before retiring. Li Yining became famous for proposing the "disequilibrium theory," an explanation for inflation in recent years. The gist of it is that "supply falling short of demand is reasonable, low prices are unrealistic, and there's no way to change it."

He was engaged in an academic debate with a scholar named Wu Jinglian from Aurora University in Shanghai, whose idea was "to make a difference if one can, and to make a difference if one should."

Both are considered influential scholars.

Although the public was more willing to believe Wu Jinglian's theories, and the government was also willing, in reality, they followed Li Yining's path. They tried every method imaginable, and ultimately curbed price increases through production development, not any economic measures.

Yu Qie had a conversation with Hu Daiguang last year about the dual-track system, and at the time he was implicitly on Li Yining's side, saying, "Brothers, listen to me, just set it up." Hu Daiguang went back and mentioned it to Li Yining, so Li Yining remembered Yu Qie.

After reading Yu Qie's paper, he didn't mince words and went straight to Yu Qie's house on Gulou Street to find him.

"Is my home alright?" Yu Qie asked modestly.

More than just okay!
Professor Li was stunned when he arrived. "I don't think even Americans live as well as you. You have all kinds of Japanese appliances here, and you live in a spacious house. You've actually transformed a courtyard house into a luxury villa."

"Not at all, Professor Li, you're too kind."

After exchanging pleasantries with him for a while, Li Yining solemnly issued a disclaimer: "Yu Qie, you are one of the best in literature. My whole family reads your novels, and Professor Qian, the vice president of our Academy of Social Sciences, is also a close friend of yours despite the age difference. But we are having a research discussion now. If there is anything you don't like to hear, you must understand..."

"Of course I understand."

In Yu Qie's memory, wasn't Lao Li quite domineering? Why is he so polite now?

Li Yining then offered her opinions: "I heard that you've been getting better and better at bridge at Yenching University, and you were second only to a few people in the mathematics and physics departments. This shows that you have a natural talent for mathematics. Why didn't this paper show that talent? It's still quite rough."

Yu Qie honestly replied, "I haven't studied much for many years, and I've forgotten what I did learn."

“It shouldn’t be like this!” Li Yining shook her head. “Do you remember what Dean Hu Daiguang told you? Don’t waste your talent. You should pick these things up again. Even if you only write one paper every year or two, you should still do mathematics on your own to be proficient.”

Then, Li Yining praised, "But your paper is very valuable. We don't lack researchers on big issues, but we lack researchers on practical problems. I've read 'Returning to One's Roots,' and we still don't know when the Century Dam will be completed... But right now, the construction of other water conservancy projects across the country is urgent. A significant portion of the funding for these projects came from Japanese loans, and our research on this financial aspect is completely blank. You've made a good start!"

Li Yining hoped that Yu Qie would write the paper in a more accessible way.

The academic aspects of this paper are largely satisfactory, but currently, some articles from *Economic Research Journal* are being selected for training senior officials. These officials are mostly not academically inclined and have lower levels of formal education, making it quite difficult for them to understand purely research articles.

Li Yining said, "You write novels, so why don't you polish the manuscript again and explain the principles in a simple and easy-to-understand way? It will definitely be more effective than anything written by anyone else."

Oh, let me rewrite the manuscript again, to add some hype! This is something my buddy is really good at.

It turns out that Li Yining came here on her own initiative for this very reason.

Li Yining's biggest weakness in his life was his inability to write novels. He had made some economic contributions, but his rival Wu Jinglian was far superior at popularizing finance. Every time the two had a disagreement, Wu Jinglian would go back to writing popular science novels, one after another, such as "The Trilogy of China's Reform," "The Dark Side of Funds," and "Ten Years of Turmoil in the Stock Market"...

Ultimately, although the debate was back and forth, Li Yining lost in the public eye. And if one were to review their works and analyze the situation further, the outcome would be even more unfavorable.

Yu Qie showed Li Yining his skills by converting the price difference resulting from the yen's appreciation, as described in the article "The Impact of Yen Appreciation on Infrastructure," into actual goods. Japan has an ODA program for aid to China, which is expected to provide nearly four trillion yen in aid in the future, with the US dollar as the anchor currency, amounting to about three hundred billion US dollars. With one currency appreciating and the other depreciating, the actual repayment will be more than double the original amount.

Does that sound reasonable? After all, repayment periods are often decades long, and any slight change in the figures could cause huge fluctuations in the future.

So, the losses caused by this mistake, calculated using the price of the polio vaccine, are equivalent to tens of thousands of years' worth of expenses for that vaccine.
The Spring Rain campaign has raised just over ten million yuan to date, and that includes the involvement of national teams. The losses caused by the mistakes in the agreement are equivalent to organizing two Spring Rain campaigns every year, from the time when humans were still chiseling wood to make fire, to the present day.

That's not specific enough.

After much deliberation, Yu Qie wrote a report at the end of his thesis. In the report, he fictionalized the life of a Chinese child who missed one vaccination, thus having a 4 in 10,000 chance of becoming paralyzed; who missed eating meat once a month during his growth period, thus having a 3 in 4 chance of being 5 to 10 centimeters shorter than his potential; and who missed buying five books each year, thus reducing his chances of being admitted to the national college entrance examination by 14 percent.

If the woman is small in stature during pregnancy, the chances of fetal maldevelopment will increase by five percentage points... This is because the loan repayments have doubled, resulting in insufficient investment in other areas.

Where did the data come from?

It was calculated directly and violently based on the amount owed.

Is there any exaggeration in the data here?

Of course there are, but why worry so much? This isn't the main body of the paper.

The new version of the paper was completed, and Li Yining was shocked when she saw it.

He had never seen this kind of writing before. Yu Qie's report was inserted after the main text of the paper, becoming a popular science article. This was the first time Yu Qie had dealt with the subject of a report, and he had grasped the horrifying and highly persuasive elements of a report.

Li Yining said, "Yuqie! Although your article is very moving, we live in a dynamic world. If such a situation really occurs, the two countries will definitely make adjustments."

"We can't possibly repay several times the loan amount. Actually, the loans from Japan have an element of assistance; they weren't entirely for usury..."

Yu said, "This is the situation I calculated. Besides, even if it could be salvaged, why did we put ourselves in such a disadvantageous position in the first place?"

When Yu Qie got impatient, he also became a bit temperamental:

"That's how the report is written. It doesn't have to be rigorous, but it has to explain the problem! A few years ago, I saw a report from the United States that said the ozone layer over Antarctica would disappear in half a century, and a hole in the Earth would appear with an area equal to that of Antarctica... Although I know it's impossible, according to the data from that time, that's how it is."

Li Yining still felt that writing it like that was too exaggerated: "If you publish this article, it will probably have a significant impact on the economics community. If the prediction is wrong in the end, it may implicate you." Yu Qie still said: "If it benefits the country, I will risk my life. How can I avoid it because of personal fortune or misfortune?"

Since things had come to this point, Li Yining could only accept the article with some skepticism.

After slight revisions, "The Impact of Yen Appreciation on Infrastructure" was published in *Economic Research Journal* and passed internal review. The article was published in early July, and Yu Qie devoted the rest of his time to writing the military novel *The Battle of Laoshan*.

If I don't finish writing this soon, the Laoshan campaign will be completely over.

Jiang Wen, who was filming "The Last Empress," would sometimes visit Yu Qie, freeloading on food and drinks. This guy was incredibly shameless; he'd practically break his legs and lie down at Yu Qie's house just to curry favor with him. He was shocked to hear that Yu Qie had written an economics paper!
Jiang Wendao said, "Yu Qie, aren't you a novelist? I always thought you were a literature major."

Yu Qie replied, "This world is too complicated. When you encounter something, it's best to have a backup plan. Sometimes, having one backup plan isn't enough; you need to have several."

Jiang Wen was amused by Yu Qie: "I also want to switch careers. I studied acting, but being an actor is so boring. You're either cast or you're fired. I'm not good-looking, so a lot of roles don't want me. Actually, I want to be a director..."

"Go for it," Yu Qie encouraged him. "Maybe I'll give you my novel to film someday."

"real or fake?"

Jiang Wen even considered selling his pants to raise money for a moment. Even his mentor, Xie Jin, was extremely envious of Yu Qie's novels. As long as Yu Qie's name was involved, the schemes they orchestrated wouldn't fall apart.

"Fake!"

Yu Qie threw down his chopsticks. "Jiang Wen, go wash the dishes."

"okay!"

Jiang Wen quickly got up and left.

In early July, the crew of "Children of Heaven" returned to the capital from Xinjiang Province. The filming of their scenes was mostly complete, and the entire crew went back to the capital. Since the film itself promotes charitable donations, the end credits will include a video presentation about "Operation Spring Rain."

Xie Jin had a sudden inspiration and asked Yu Qie to make a cameo appearance as a staff member of the "Spring Rain Action".

He said, "This fundraising campaign came about because of your tireless efforts. You have a great appearance, but there isn't much information about you. I hope that when future readers learn about this period of history, they can see what you looked like when you were young in the film 'Children of Heaven'."

No, buddy, I'm only 22, and I'm already acting like I'm "younger"?

Jiang Wen looks at least a whole size older than me, and when he smiles he looks like an ugly, silly monkey. Why don't you mention "what he looked like when he was young"?

Xie Jin acted immediately, bringing in a photographer and even persuading Gong Xue to become an actress as well.

So, at the Children's Foundation entrance in Jianguomen, the crew of "Children of Heaven" rented a space, and the camera was pointed at Yu Qie and Gong Xue. They grinned and smiled at the camera.

Yu Qie spoke first:
"Operation Spring Rain is the first non-governmental fundraising campaign in the country to raise funds for a specific disease... The peak incidence of polio occurs in children between ten months and two years old, but we should not be complacent even after they reach adulthood... The United Nations is working to eradicate polio, which will become the second infectious disease to be eradicated after smallpox."

Gong Xue said, "If you are able, please go to the nearest China Children and Teenagers' Foundation to donate your love..."

Yu Qie began again: "Comrades, I wish you a pleasant life, goodbye!"

Gong Xue suddenly started to speak freely: "I also wish Yu Qie a happy life. What you see now is him in person." She then turned her head to face the camera and said, "Goodbye, viewers."

Yu Qie stared blankly at Gong Xue, wondering why she was acting so recklessly.
Gong Xue also looked at Yu Qie, and then burst out laughing.

"—Click!" Xie Jin was very satisfied with this part, finding it very childlike and kept it.

Yu Qie twisted Gong Xue's arm and asked, "Why are you suddenly smiling at me?"

Gong Xue said, "You don't really think Director Xie had nothing better to do than film this scene for you? We encountered something very interesting in Xinjiang Province..."

"what's up?"

"The local children have read your novels, but many do not know what you look like. They say you have a goatee and a hooked nose, long, thin, and curved eyebrows, and wear a white robe with brown stripes... You also have a little donkey by your side."

"Isn't that Avatar, or rather, Afanti?"

Gong Xue burst into laughter: "Yes, you are Afanti. But if our movie is to go to Asia, it has to reach the rural areas in the mainland. We have to let people know what you look like, otherwise they won't know who will help them in the future."

The film was then sent to the film studio for review, and subsequently to the Film Bureau under a certain committee and cultural department in Beijing for censorship. In the 1980s, a strange phenomenon emerged in China: while literature flourished to the point that even "pure literature" could sell like hotcakes, the film market, a high-end substitute, began to shrink. In 1980, the number of moviegoers nationwide reached 29 billion, but by 1985, it had decreased by 4 billion, with an average monthly decline of at least 200 million.

The situation was far more dire than the later Hollywood invasion; the film industry seemed on the verge of collapse. In an effort to save the industry, many professionals cried out, "We need entertainment films," giving rise to a large number of cult films characteristic of the 1980s.

At the same time, the film market is gradually becoming more market-oriented, leading to a surge in the salaries of professionals such as actors and screenwriters who directly affect box office revenue.

The script for Yu Qie's film was priced at a whopping 6,000 yuan. While this is the highest salary on the market, in just two or three years, 6,000 yuan will be insufficient.

He's not short of 6,000 yuan now, and Yu Qie donated all the money to the Spring Rain Action.

The crew changed venues and held a hasty farewell ceremony.

(End of this chapter)