I was forced to start the second round because I was raised in poverty

Chapter 332 The Strongest Brain (5.5k)

Mathematical ability has a significant impact on Texas Hold'em and is a core foundation for determining a player's long-term profitability.

The reason why professional gamers can maintain long-term stable profits is that every decision they make is supported by rigorous mathematical logic.

It doesn't require players to be math geniuses, but mastering the core mathematical concepts can elevate Texas Hold'em from a purely luck-based game into a competition of strategy and intelligence.

For both amateur and professional poker players, the depth of their understanding and application of mathematics is the key dividing line between their skill levels.

In theory, Texas Hold'em is an incomplete information game, where players cannot know exactly what their opponents' hole cards are.

However, mathematics provides a scientific decision-making framework to help players make the most advantageous choices in uncertain situations.

Ignoring mathematics and relying solely on intuition or a sixth eye to "read people" is tantamount to exposing one's own resources to enormous risks.

Su Cheng sat next to Ma Shuning, and Ma Shuning secretly handed her trump card to Su Cheng to check.

During this time, Ma Shuning also subtly and intentionally pressed her left arm against Su Cheng's body.

Although it only lasts for a second or two, it is enough to evoke other emotions in a man.

Ma Shuning didn't know whether Su Cheng reacted or not, but her subtle action had already aroused Xu Ning's jealousy and dissatisfaction.

Xu Ning had previously pursued Ma Shuning, but Ma Shuning simply ignored him.

Today, Ma Ru suddenly brought a man over, and he was playing cards with Ma Shuning.
Xu Ning's competitive spirit was suddenly aroused.

He stared at Su Cheng, his eyes filled with hostility: "Hey Shu Ning, are you two playing together?"

"That's right, didn't I say he was the expert I invited!"

"A master? How skilled?"

"Very high!"

"so tall?"

"Yes, yes!"

Xu Ning didn't say anything more.

Row.

You're an expert, aren't you?

Su Cheng ignored Xu Ning's question and began to calculate after focusing on Ma Shuning's cards.

Thanks to the few hours of sleep he caught up on in the afternoon, and the highly nutritious steak and salmon he ate at noon, Su Cheng estimated that his mental energy wouldn't be overdrawn tonight.

Ma Shuning held a Jack of Clubs and a King of Spades.

Although it's not a top-tier "monster" hand like AA or KK, it's still pretty good.

A gambling god once said, "It's stupid to hold an AK and not shoot it."

But the situation is different for JK (high school girl).

The most crucial factor in deciding whether or not to play this hand is position.

If mathematics is one of the winning factors, then position is the biggest factor besides mathematics.

If you're in the front line of attack, there's no point in playing anymore; just fold.

Because there are five people behind JK who haven't made their moves yet, you don't know what their hand is. AA, AK, and AQ are all stronger than JK, making it easy to take the lead in terms of hand type.

If someone raises the bet, the situation becomes very bad.

However, if Ma Shuning is positioned further back, the situation is completely different.

Ma Shuning is in a prime position in the JK (high school girl) scene and should play aggressively.

However, JK is a different case; you can only buy pairs and straights later.

It depends on the attitude of the people in front of you.

Fan Li and Wan Hua folded.

Ma Ru, Xu Ning, and Yin Jiazhi all chose to bet flat.

Mathematically speaking, this indicates a weak hand.

Ma Shuning looked at Su Cheng, blinking her eyes, waiting for Su Cheng's instructions.

Su Cheng whispered in Ma Shuning's ear, "You can add a little bit."

There are three purposes for adding bets.

First, punish the weak, making Ma Ru, Xu Ning, and Yin Jiazhi, the three players who wanted to see the cards at a cheap price, pay a higher price.

Secondly, it reduces his and Ma Shuning's opponents, as her JK is very strong in one-on-one combat.

Third, establish a pot and maintain a positional advantage, entering a larger pot with initiative and positional advantage.

Following Su Cheng's advice, Ma Shuning threw out a small chip, but Su Cheng didn't know how much each chip represented.

After Ma Shuning threw out a chip, the other three were slightly surprised. Yin Jiazhi even took another look at his hole cards, but in the end, all three chose to call.

The dealer deals three community cards: Ace of Spades, Queen of Spades, and 4 of Clubs.

These three cards are a pretty good hand for Ma Shuning.

The appearance of any 10 could potentially form a straight flush of AKQJ-10, which is also the strongest straight possible in the current hand.

The probability of the remaining two community cards being a 10 is 16.5%.

In a one-on-one situation, the success rate of continuous betting is very high.

However, in a four-player game, the likelihood of Ma Shuning's bets being called or even raised increases significantly.

This hand is full of possibilities. The opponent might have hit AQ two pair, the presence of two spades could give them 4=1 to draw a flush, or like Ma Shuning's hand, they might be waiting for a straight.

Ma Shuning has a very strong draw, but it's not a complete hand yet, so there's no need to make the pot too big before she has a complete hand.

Su Cheng's greatest strengths lie in her absolute mathematical ability and her ability to see through people's hearts.

After analyzing the hand and community cards, Su Cheng then began to observe the performance of the other three players.

A hint of surprise flashed in Yin Jiazhi's eyes, but he quickly concealed it, adopting his usual nonchalant and carefree expression as a disguise.

Su Cheng felt that the hand he had must be quite strong, and it was very likely that he had hit more than one pair.

AQ pair?

A4 pairs?

Or Q4 pairs?

The likelihood of having a pair of Q4 is relatively low, because if Yin Jiazhi had Q4, he should have folded before the community cards were dealt, instead of raising and calling.

However, this possibility cannot be ruled out, because judging from the fact that Yin Jiazhi bet on Poland with higher odds, he is clearly a seasoned gambler who likes excitement and upsets.

In the end, Yin Jiazhi only added one chip as a test.

This basically confirms Su Cheng's analysis: Yin Jiazhi got more than one pair, and most likely two.

Ma Ru glanced at her cards again, then gave Yin Jia Zhi a disapproving look: "What kind of cards did you get? You're raising them? You've got something good to offer?"

Yin Jia Zhi, with a smug look on his face, said, "Hehe, I won't tell you, but I have a very strong hand!"

Ma Ru retorted, "Stop trying to fool people!"

Ma Ru's reaction was interesting; he fell into thought, calculating the card combinations and probabilities, which was a sign of caution and hesitation.

Although he verbally refuted Yin Jiazhi, he still felt that Yin Jiazhi had a lot of influence.

He was holding 77 pairs, which would actually be very difficult for him.

Because there are two cards higher than him, A and Q, and various other possible winning hands.

If everyone passes, Ma Ru will also pass, getting to see a card for free.

But if Yin Jiazhi raises, even with just one chip, he definitely won't call, because there's no strength left in 77.

The 7 of spades can beat a flush, but the probability isn't high enough to sustain the win.

Yin Jiazhi could easily find a pair of women in AQ that are bigger than him.

In the end, Ma Ru decisively chose to fold.

The next decision to be made is by Xu Ning.

Like Ma Ru, Xu Ning hesitated; he was also thinking.

His hand consisted of a 10 of hearts and a Jack of hearts.

The Jack of Hearts and the Ten of Hearts are not strong hands, but they are a decent speculative hand with great potential.

On a board of AQ-4, this hand is a gutshot straight draw. It only needs one more King to complete an AKQJ-10 straight.

But the Ace and Queen on the community cards remain a huge threat to him.

Yin Jiazhi made a small bet, which was clearly a fishing tactic; he might have hit AQ.

It's ok.

There's still a chance; he only needs a King to win this hand.

The probability is probably around ten percent?

Actually, the probability of him hitting K is different from the probability of Su Cheng hitting 10; they are not both 16.5%.

Su Cheng already has a King, so Xu Ning's probability is even lower.

However, Xu Ning ultimately chose to call, wanting to see one card first.

Based on the three players' reactions, Su Cheng now has two options: call or raise.

Let's talk about adding bets first.

What is the purpose of adding more money?
Show off a strong hand, such as two pairs or a set, hoping that both players will fold out of fear and you can win the pot immediately without even looking at the rest of the cards.

Secondly, it can be used to collect information.

If Su Cheng raises and Yin Jia Zhi raises again, then the alarm will be raised. It can be concluded that Yin Jia Zhi has almost 100% a trap hand, holding two pairs or a set. At this point, you can calmly fold to avoid greater losses.

Finally, it can also be used to prepare for a large pot.

If both Yin Jiazhi and Xu Ning call Su Cheng's raise, the pot will become enormous.

If you hit a straight on the turn or river, you'll win significantly more money than if you just called.

However, raising the stakes carries significant risk, primarily due to Yin Jiazhi's hand.

If he really was setting a trap by betting small with a strong hand, Su Cheng's raise would be exactly what he wanted, and Yin Jiazhi would raise aggressively again. What would happen then?
In such a large pot, Su Cheng only had a draw but hadn't made his hand, so being forced to fold would result in a significant loss of money.

Therefore, Su Cheng suggested that Ma Shuning choose to only call and see the fourth card.

Calling is an excellent, sound, and standard choice, offering the best risk-reward ratio.

By perfectly utilizing mathematical odds and your positional advantage, you can pursue a huge potential profit while keeping the risks under control.

This approach avoids being ousted too early by a strong opponent's hand while retaining all possibilities of winning a large pot after hitting a straight, making it the optimal solution in the current hand. With Yin Jiazhi's recent raise, the pot ratio is now 8:1, and the odds of him and Ma Shuning hitting a 10 are 16.5%, roughly 5:1.

Mathematically speaking, these odds are far better than the probability of making a hand, so choosing to call is a profitable long-term strategy.

Yin Jiazhi and Xu Ning are both putting money into the pot, which means they have strong hands.

If the next card is indeed a 10 to form a straight, they will likely continue to bet money, allowing Ma Shuning to win a huge pot.

Calling the bet allows Ma Shuning to reap this huge potential profit with minimal cost.

Secondly, it can also conceal card strength.

It's just that it's difficult to read the cards when calling Xu Ning and Yin Jiazhi.

Ma Shuning may be calling with a draw, or she may be slow-playing a strong hand with an Ace.

This ambiguity is very advantageous to him and Ma Shuning.

Ma Shuning turned her head and asked, "How is it?"

Su Cheng then leaned close to Ma Shuning's ear again and whispered, "You can go with her."

The fourth community card dealt is the 10 of diamonds.

Hit!
Tian Shun!

In this round, only the following hand types can beat Ma Shuning: Royal Flush, Straight Flush, Four of a Kind, Captive House, and Flush.

A royal flush requires A, K, Q, J, and 10 to be flushed. The only community cards are A and Q, which are spades. Ma Shuning has a King of spades in her hand, and only one more card can be dealt. Therefore, the probability of a royal flush is 0%.

Apart from the Royal Flush, no other Flush is possible; the probability is also 0%.

There is only one possibility for four cards to appear: the last card forms a pair with one of the community cards, namely A, Q, 4, 10, and an opponent happens to have AA, QQ, 44, 1010.

This probability is less than 1% and can be ignored.

The most likely, and the only, hand that could cause Ma Shuning to lose is the one that is most likely to appear.

Suppose that after the last card is dealt, Yin Jiazhi might prefer to form a "three of a kind + a pair", which would allow him to overtake Ma Shuning.

The probability is approximately 12/46, which is about 26.1%.

The discards of Ma Ru and others must also be included in this count, because Su Cheng does not know what cards they discarded, so it is 26.1%.

But that doesn't mean there's a 26.1% chance of losing!
Yin Jiazhi might prefer to hold the cards precisely that would allow him to capture Lohouse in order to lose.

Overall, the probability of losing is approximately between 10% and 20%.

A flush can also occur, but only a flush of spades can occur.

There are 10 spades left in the deck, with a probability of 10/46, which is approximately 21.7%.

However, if a flush occurs, it will only benefit Ma Shuning.

She has a King of Spades, which can form the highest possible flush.

Based on Yin Jiazhi and Xu Ning's betting strategies and Su Cheng's observations of them, Ma Shuning's winning percentage is now almost 100%.

Simultaneously.

Ma Shuning's hand was well concealed, and she had not shown any aggression beforehand.

The most concealed hand type, with the highest winning rate.

Now Su Cheng only has one thing to do: figure out how to extract the most value for Ma Shuning from Yin Jiazhi and Xu Ning.

After the cards were dealt, Yin Jiazhi hesitated.

Because this 10 has no effect on him, it only makes a straight possible. Any player holding KJ now has a straight, and it's a perfect straight.

If Yin Jia Zhi were to pass, it would appear too weak, which would be telling everyone that he is afraid of the 10 and would give them a free chance to see the last card.

If another spade is drawn, his two pairs will be in even greater danger.

Furthermore, passing deprives him of the opportunity to extract value from weaker hands such as pairs of Aces, pairs of Queens, or newly formed two pairs of Queens and Tens.

However, his two pairs are still very strong and remain the best hand in most situations. Continuing to build the pot and protect his hand is the only correct option.

First, he can win money from small pairs like Aces, Queens, and Queens 10.

Secondly, he wanted to charge those who wanted spades, preventing them from getting a free show of cards.

Therefore, Yin Jiazhi continued to place his bet.

He bet even more this time, putting out 10 blue chips directly.

"If you want to see my cards, you'll have to pay! I'm telling you, I have a really strong hand! If you're worried, you'd better fold!"

Yin Jiazhi gave a chuckled and pretentious introduction.

Ma Ru smiled disdainfully: "What cards are you holding? Let me see them."

"Come and peek."

Ma Ru got up and came behind Yin Jia Zhi. Yin Jia Zhi carefully rubbed it out and showed it to him.

"How is it? Is it big?"

"Hmm...it's quite big."

The conversation between the two was actually worthless. Even if Yin Jiazhi had a small hand like 23, Ma Ru would say it was a big hand and wouldn't reveal Yin Jiazhi's hand type.

Xu Ning frowned and gripped his cards again.

The fourth card he received wasn't the King he wanted, but a 10, so he only hit a pair now.

He can only win if both Yin Jiazhi and Su Cheng are bluffing.

Xu Ning is still waiting for the King to complete his straight, which is the greatest value and potential of his hand.

But this hand is also very fragile.

If either of them gets an A or a Q, their pair will be higher than his.

If Su Cheng were to calculate the cards for Xu Ning, Xu Ning's accurate probability of winning would actually be 8.7%.

If we know that Ma Shuning already has a King, the probability is even lower, only 6.6%.

Xu Ning's card counting ability was not as strong as Su Cheng's. He could only determine a general range. He knew that his chance of winning was less than 10%, and that Yin Jia Zhi and Su Cheng both had stronger hands than him.

Ultimately, Xu Ning chose to fold.

Although he really didn't want to fold, he knew that his reluctance stemmed more from his emotional attachment to Su Cheng.

Anyone with a sound mind wouldn't gamble on a 10% probability, and Xu Ning felt that her decision was correct.

What Xu Ning didn't want to see even more was Su Cheng's smugness as she won more chips later.

After Xu Ning folded, the next match was a one-on-one between Ma Shuning and Yin Jiazhi.

To be precise, it was a one-on-one fight between Su Cheng and Yin Jiazhi.

Su Cheng then asked the question: "May I ask how much one chip is?"

Ma Ru explained from the side: "White is one thousand, green is ten thousand, red is one hundred thousand, blue is one million, and yellow is ten million."

Su Cheng nodded.

Yin Jiazhi just pushed 10 blue chips, which means his raise is ten million.

Damn, you second-generation rich kids are going to play this big?

Su Cheng immediately took action and pushed all the chips in front of Ma Shuning out, without even calculating the exact amount.

Not only Yin Jiazhi, but Su Cheng's actions stunned everyone present.

All in?

I roughly estimated that Su Cheng just pushed out a stake of tens of millions.

When Su Cheng pushed out the chips, Yin Jiazhi's body visibly stiffened, his lips slightly parted as if he wanted to say something, but he swallowed it back.

Yin Jiazhi's pupils dilated instantly. He grabbed his cards and stood up. For a few seconds, he remained motionless, staring intently at Su Cheng and Ma Shuning opposite him, trying to find some flaw in their demeanor.

His entire world seemed to shrink to this card table at that moment.

"What the hell are you holding?"

Despite his carefree and jovial demeanor, Yin Jiazhi is actually a bit better at math than Xu Ning, after all, his father is a banker.

He analyzed that Su Cheng had a 95% or higher probability of getting JK.

This was the most logical card, and also the one that frightened him the most.

Su Cheng's pre-flop raise was perfectly reasonable.

With an open straight draw pre-flop, Su Cheng's decision to call and check was perfectly reasonable.

The turn card was a 10, completing Su Cheng's straight. Seeing that he had placed another large bet, Su Cheng went all in, hoping to win all of his chips.

So it's a JK (high school girl)!
This story is flawless, and it's the script that Yin Jia Zhi least wanted to see.

Yin Jiazhi made a request: "If I fold now, can you let me see my cards later?"

Su Cheng didn't actually have the authority to answer this question; it was Ma Shuning's turn: "Then you'll have to ask her."

Ma Shuning chuckled and said, "Sure, give me two million and I'll show you."

"200 yuan, let me take a look."

"Get out! I'm not letting you see it!"

Ma Shuning had already revealed a confident smile, so everyone assumed she had JK and that Yin Jia Zhi had folded.

"Alright, alright, I'll show you how, okay?"

Ma Shuning flipped over her cards, revealing the Jack of Clubs and the King of Spades.

Yin Jiazhi was a little unwilling. He asked the dealer to deal the remaining river card: "What's the last one?"

The dealer dealt the river card, which was a 2 of clubs.

This 2 of clubs is useless to anyone.

Yin Jiazhi breathed a sigh of relief, feeling that he had avoided losing a lot of money.

"Thank goodness, if I had followed, I would have lost everything in the first round. My dad hasn't given me any money this month, and I would have just been watching you guys play."

Similarly, Xu Ning secretly breathed a sigh of relief.

The 2 of Clubs is a useless card for him.

If he had continued to follow through, Su Cheng would have helped Ma Shuning win more than ten million; it might have doubled.

"Wow, it seems the expert I invited is really skilled! He won so much in the very first game!"

(End of this chapter)