Technology invades the modern world

Chapter 142 The Real Decisive Factor in the Cold War (6k)

"Hello everyone, in 1951, Professor Turing proposed in a BBC radio lecture and article 'Intelligent Machines, Heretical Theory' that machines might eventually surpass human intelligence."

Professor Goode believes that there will be an intelligence explosion in computers, and that a machine will emerge that far surpasses all human intellectual activities.

In my opinion, this is indeed possible.

Whether America or the Soviet Union would ultimately win the Cold War depended not on the space race, but on who invented such a machine first.

When an artificial intelligence machine far surpasses any of the smartest humans in all intellectual activities, the design and manufacture of the machine itself is also part of these intellectual activities.

Then this machine will design better machines on its own, and human intelligence will be left far behind.

We don't even need to wait until then; as long as artificial intelligence can assist human scientists in research and development, our technological development will usher in a big bang.

IBM's chess program is living proof of this. It can defeat most humans in chess.

However, this is just the beginning.

Imagine a world where this intelligence is applied to medicine to cure diseases that were once incurable; to engineering to solve problems that were previously inaccessible to humans; to education to unlock knowledge for everyone; and to national security to protect our way of life.

The possibilities of artificial intelligence are limitless.

In my view, the development of artificial intelligence is not just a scientific endeavor; it is a race that will determine the fate of nations.

The real key to victory lies not in who sets foot on the moon first, but in who unlocks the full power of artificial intelligence and usheres in the technological singularity.

The first nation to reach this singularity will hold the reins of the future.

After Lin Ran finished speaking, discussions arose from the audience.

To put it bluntly, Lin Ran's viewpoint is actually Professor Goode's future viewpoint.

However, Goode was just a professor in England, and his views were only noticed by science fiction writers.

Secondly, it is because artificial intelligence lacks a sufficient window for discussion so that the public can fully recognize its importance.

Lin Ran, at this moment, has been provided with such a window through IBM's Deep Blue and the future IBM exhibition hall in Times Square.

Defining who won the Cold War, when spoken by Lin Ran, carries a completely different level of importance.

Why did Lin Ran give Korolev that paper that transformed a non-convex optimization problem into a convex optimization problem? This paper is one of the cornerstones of SpaceX's realization of reusable rockets.

The purpose was to enable Korolev to achieve a manned lunar landing ahead of schedule, with the help of this paper.

Lin Ran's words already carried significant weight, and after the Soviet Union and Russia took the lead in landing a man on the moon, America's media, in order to redefine the study of winning, naturally picked up on his words.

It's okay if we lose the manned moon landing mission; our real battle will come at the technological singularity brought about by artificial intelligence.

If the Soviet Union could catch up in the semiconductor field, it would be a gamble, and given the Russians' unique technological aesthetics, they would most likely be able to develop a completely different semiconductor technology path for you.

One of Lin Ran's true goals was to fully unleash the potential of the semiconductor field in the 60s.

Lin Ran hadn't expected that the reporters in the audience would erupt with unprecedented enthusiasm.

"Professor, could you elaborate on the technological singularity?"

"Professor, when do you think we will be able to build such a machine?"

"Professor, do you and the White House share the same viewpoint?"

The reporters' questions nearly set the entire venue ablaze.

Lin Ran pressed his hands down, "Quiet, let's watch the next two matches first."

The second player was Harvey Cohen.

He walked confidently onto the stage, next to his student, Chen Jingrun, who was frantically trying to memorize everything Lin Ran had just said so he could send it back to China.

Chen Jingrun felt like he was about to become a memory master.

When Harvey Cohen began playing against Deep Blue, the focus finally returned to the stage, rather than Lin Ran.

Lin Ran squeezed Jenny's hand, and the two of them secretly slipped away through the side door.

"Professor, shouldn't you reserve the rest of your interview time for me?" Jenny asked eagerly, her eyes shining.

Lin Ran nodded: "Of course."

The game of chess continues inside the hotel.

Harvey Cohen didn't last much longer than Fox.

After Harvey Cohen was defeated, the reporters realized that Lin Ran had disappeared.

Everyone had no choice but to keep an eye on Alex Bernstein and Thomas Watson. Your news value wasn't as high as Lin Ran's, but something was better than nothing.

Who is Thomas Watson? He is the CEO of IBM and the son of IBM's founder. He also has a strong ability to manage situations effectively.

"Everyone, calm down. Mr. Bernstein and I will give you all the interviews you want. Let's finish our last game first; we still have time," Watson said.

With the joint recommendation of numerous mathematicians, Stephen Smail was the last to appear.

Indeed, mathematicians simply cannot accept that the entire group of mathematicians could lose all three games of chess between humans and machines that night.

Although they were not chess champions or chess masters, they could not accept a complete defeat.

Stephen Smail is widely recognized as the strongest chess player among the mathematicians present.

Unfortunately, he ultimately fell short.

Stephen Smail sat blankly in front of the chessboard, this time without Lin Ran to comfort him, and refused to leave the stage for a long time.

Bernstein walked up to him: "Professor."

This was an attempt to bring Stephen back to his senses.

Stephen Smail was still savoring the game he had just played. "Sir, may I play another game with him?"
I got anxious just now; I was so close to winning!

Bernstein glanced at his watch: "Sorry, Professor, it's almost eleven o'clock. Our Deep Blue exhibit will open on the first day of the new year, and you'll be very welcome to take on the challenge."

Stephen Smail looked annoyed as he walked off the stage, clutching his hair. Smail had quite a thick head of hair.

(Photo of Stephen Smail in 2008)

"Stephen, you're no good either!" Fox was the happiest when he saw Stephen lose.

"Stop yelling! If I can't beat Deep Blue, can't I beat you?!" Stephen Smail was already annoyed, and seeing his defeated opponent yelling only made him more annoyed.

Fox said, "Come on, let's play a game of chess, who's afraid of who!"

Stephen Smail said, "Come on then."

Fox added, "But you have to give me a car."

Stephen Smail was speechless: "I only give you a two-point handicap in Go, and you want a rook in chess?"

However, they obviously don't have a chance to play tonight.

Because the journalists interviewed not only Bernstein and Watson, but also the mathematicians who had played against Deep Blue.

"Professor Fox, why did you lose to Deep Blue?"

Reporters who reacted quickly had already gathered around.

"The main problem is lack of experience," said Ralph Fox. "It's easy to get nervous when playing against a machine for the first time."

Stephen Smail, who was listening nearby, couldn't help but roll his eyes.

"Professor Fox, do you think you can beat Deep Blue if there's a next time?" the reporter continued.

Fox replied confidently, "Of course."

What he was really thinking was, "I'll never play against Deep Blue again."

"Professor Fox, how was it playing against Deep Blue?" the reporter then asked.

Fox thought for a moment: "You'll have a very obvious feeling of playing against a machine."

Its calculation time for each move is almost constant, and you can't see the player, only the pieces moving on their own. This feeling is very unique and unlike anything I've ever experienced before.

It's just that current technology can't do it. Lin Ran initially wanted to make a robotic arm, which would have been more effective.

However, IBM tried many times, but technically it simply couldn't achieve that level of precision.

In today's world, for a robotic arm to accurately pick up a chess piece and place it on the corresponding position on the chessboard, it not only needs highly sensitive sensors but also visual recognition capabilities.

That's a bit too advanced for the task.

The reporters surrounding Bernstein and Watson all focused their questions on the technological singularity that Lin Ran had mentioned.

"Mr. Watson, do you agree with the professor's point of view?"

"Yes, I completely agree. From the abacus to the calculator and now to the computer, the assistance that machines can provide to human scientific research has greatly increased."

If this pace of development continues, machines that can provide greater assistance will inevitably emerge sooner or later.

When such a machine appears, the party that possesses it will gain an unprecedented competitive advantage.

Can you imagine how terrifying it would be if every researcher were equipped with a similar machine and could perform the same function as a professor?
NASA has over 10,000 engineers, each with skills comparable to a professor. Therefore, our goal is likely not just the moon, but the entire solar system.

Watson was beaming with excitement, while the reporters listened intently, taking notes in their notebooks.

Some reporters have even come up with the headline for tomorrow's front page:

"The Singularity of Artificial Intelligence: Everyone Can Be Randolph"

"Watson, who do you think will invent a similar machine first? IBM, Texas Instruments, General Electric, Bell Communications, or some other company?"

"Of course it's IBM. We are already ahead of all other companies in the field of artificial intelligence."

We also have a powerful weapon: we have a close working relationship with the smartest minds on Earth today.

The reason the professor chose to collaborate with IBM, rather than other companies, is precisely because we have the best engineering team and the deepest technical expertise and reserves in the fields of artificial intelligence and computer science.

Watson spoke eloquently, and even he believed his own words.

He was already anticipating a surge in IBM's stock price after the US stock market opened.

IBM was listed on the New York Stock Exchange as early as 1916, but at that time it was not called IBM, it was called the Computing-Tabulating-Recording Company. It was not until 24 that it was renamed International Business Machines Corporation, which is IBM.

Thanks to the booming development of computers, IBM's stock price is now very high. At the time, it was over $400 per share.

It is precisely because of such a high price that IBM's stock has undergone more than one stock split.

"Mr. Watson, would you invite the professor to join IBM?" "Of course, if the professor is willing, I would even be willing to offer him the CEO position," Watson said.

He knew how much of a benefit this was for a technology company, and how much it would help.

Bell was able to help Bell Telephone become a behemoth, Edison was able to lay the foundation for Edison Electric to become General Electric, and Lin Ran's value is no less than theirs.

"Mr. Watson, regarding the Deep Blue exhibition hall, will IBM consider selling Deep Blue as a product in the future?" the reporter then asked.

"We will consider it and make a judgment based on market demand."

But one thing is certain: once it's put on the market, its price will be unaffordable for the average consumer.

The questions the reporters posed to Bernstein focused on Deep Blue itself:
"Mr. Bernstein, given that Deep Blue didn't lose a single game today, can it defeat all human chess players?"

"Not yet. It still has limitations. After all, the professors are just amateur chess enthusiasts, and Deep Blue's level is roughly equivalent to a master among amateurs." Bernstein remained modest.

"So, when do you think it will be able to defeat all of humanity?"

“I’m not sure, but I think five years should be enough,” Bernstein said.

"Mr. Bernstein, do you agree with the professor's view on the singularity of artificial intelligence technology?"

"Of course, I hope to find that technological singularity."

If the interview in the upscale Manhattan hotel seemed chaotic, then Jenny's exclusive interview with Lin Ran was filled with an ambiguous atmosphere.

Last time, Lin Ran took Jenny to the Clarendon Tower on the Upper West Side of Manhattan, owned by the Hearst family. The Hearst family had connected the top five floors together to create a penthouse. He hadn't been up there yet.

This time, Lin Ran went to Jenny's private residence, a huge apartment overlooking the entire Central Park in New York.

They leaned back on the sofa. Jenny had changed into a silk nightgown. The heating was on full blast, and she had a laptop on her lap. There was a bottle of red wine on the table in front of her.

Lin Ran felt the atmosphere was ambiguous, but the conversation was very serious.
"Professor, congratulations to Deep Blue for defeating the human player. Does this victory mean that machines have surpassed humans?"

"Of course not. This is just to prove to the public that computers have infinite possibilities and that they are the future."

In this interview, Lin Ran hoped to show his true thoughts as much as possible.

He knew that what he said would definitely travel across the ocean and reach the desks of everyone in Yanjing who was meant to see it.

He doesn't expect China to be the winner in this artificial intelligence race he started.

Because there is absolutely no way for one side to win.

Neither America nor Soviet Russia could win.

In particular, Lin Ran also intends to guide them towards some technological paths that do not exist in the 20th timeline.

This makes it even less likely that there will be a winner.

He hopes that China will take this seriously, and that external pressure will lead to internal unity.

This will lay a sufficiently solid foundation for his return to China.

It doesn't need to be advanced, just complete.

Just like China's future industrial system, completeness means unlimited possibilities.

"Professor, how did you come up with the idea of ​​creating an AI program for chess?" Jenny asked.

"I've always believed that computers have enormous potential. I read in a magazine that IBM had done a chess program, so I thought about collaborating with them."

We tried to build a more powerful chess AI program, and we're glad we succeeded.

We need to raise public awareness and expectations of artificial intelligence, as this is related to whether the free world can win the Cold War! Lin Ran's expression was serious and his tone was firm.

Jenny was somewhat surprised by Lin Ran's behavior.

In her memory, Lin Ran had always been a calm and rational scientist with limited dislike for the Soviet Union, and she had almost never heard of his views on the free world or ideology.

This is actually quite rare for someone aspiring to be a philosopher.

Jenny even suspected that the other party had a favorable impression of Soviet Russia.

Now I hear Lin Ran actually mentioning the victory of the free world.

I was quite surprised.

Just like Musk's sudden involvement in politics, there's a sense of incongruity.

Jenny asked earnestly, "Professor, do you really believe that the final victory of the Cold War will be determined by artificial intelligence?"

Lin Ran nodded and said, "Of course, we don't even need to wait for artificial intelligence."

We do not yet fully realize the power of computers.

Our understanding of the assistance computers provided to the Soviet Union is even less comprehensive.

In other words, as a command-based planned economy behemoth, the Soviet economy was entirely determined by Moscow's bureaucrats.

We would criticize this allocation mechanism as rigid and impractical.

That's because their computing power is insufficient to build models that closely resemble the real world.

Computers can help them make up for this shortcoming. You can imagine that computers can accurately calculate the materials needed and consumed by each Soviet citizen, and then accurately allocate them to each factory responsible for production.

Humans can't do this, but computers can.

It doesn't even require computers and artificial intelligence at the level of the technological singularity. As long as Soviet Russia can build a computer that can accurately complete the distribution of domestic resources, it will be a huge threat to the free world.

When that time comes, when we talk about trade flows in the free world, they will be able to use resources efficiently and precisely to respond.

This is not good news.

Don't wait for Reagan to start Star Wars; Lin Ran will give you a Star Wars lesson in the computer field first.

It's still Nikita, not Leonid yet.

To be precise, in the early days of Leonid's reign, Soviet Russia was not so stagnant as to be unable to move forward.

Therefore, Lin Ran needs to increase their intensity.

If Soviet Russia had indeed built a vast commodity distribution network using computers, it would have created a completely new social structure.

cybernetic socialism
Don't say that no one in Soviet Russia thought of this.

Whether it was Viktor Glushkov who proposed OGAS in the 1960s, aiming to establish a nationwide computer network to collect data in real time and optimize resource allocation, reducing inefficient allocation patterns by simulating economic activities through networked computers.

Later, Leonid Kantorovich developed linear programming theory, attempting to use mathematics to optimize resource allocation, and applied it in some factories.

Soviet Russia made many similar attempts.

However, due to overwhelming internal resistance, by the time they realized they could do it, it was too late.

Another issue is insufficient external pressure.

After Lin Ran made the proposal, it was fueled by the White House and amplified by the media.

In addition, given Lin Ran's status, abilities, and vision, it was possible for him to persuade the Soviet Union to attempt to build a computer distribution network of a full alliance nature.

Even if it ultimately fails, Soviet Russia will definitely increase its investment in computers, pointing out a different technological path from the Western free world.

"Professor, do you think America can win this battle for the technological singularity?" Jenny asked nervously after hearing this.

As a former journalist for Geneva International News, she knew Soviet Russia very well.

As a long-established family, their aversion to Soviet Russia was instinctive.

If the Soviet Union had actually won, would the Hearst family still have so much wealth?
There are too few people like Engels.

“I don’t know, but I believe America can win,” Lin Ran said.

“Professor, could you elaborate on your views on the technological singularity?” Jenny then asked.

Lin Ran's speech at the Christmas party was very brief.

"certainly.

Computers have powerful computing capabilities, and have demonstrated their strength in many areas in the past.

Currently, the focus is mainly on solving mathematical equations.

From the abacus that could only perform addition and subtraction, to the calculator that could perform addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division, and now to the computer that can solve complex systems of equations, calculus, and even linear equations.

The development of tools is rapid, and their contribution to human scientific research is enormous.

And at the gala tonight, we can see that Deep Blue's capabilities have expanded from mathematical calculations to chess games.

Its capabilities can expand.

So, will it be able to do more in the future?

If physical phenomena can be explained by mathematical models, then similarly, if real-world problems can be broken down into numbers that can be understood by computers, then computers will certainly be able to help solve real-world problems.

When a sufficiently powerful computer appears, everyone can become an expert or scholar through it. Whoever builds such a computer first will experience explosive growth in their technology.

This growth rate is likely to be so terrifying that newcomers will never be able to catch up.

It would take us at least ten years to develop a manned lunar landing program. If someone develops a sufficiently powerful computer and corresponding artificial intelligence first, it might only take a year.

More importantly, this technological explosion will also feed back into the research and development of computers and artificial intelligence; the essence of the technological singularity is a snowball effect.

The first mover will snowball the gap, making it impossible for the gap between the two sides to narrow; it will only widen.

Whoever achieves a technological breakthrough first will be the first to start snowballing their success.

Just like my remarks at the hotel, this is the true deciding factor in the Cold War confrontation.

After the interview, Lin Ran got up to return to his apartment.

Jenny called out to him, "Professor, is there something you've forgotten?"

"What?" Lin Ran didn't dare to turn around.

“Last Christmas Eve you gave me an apple, saying it was a Chinese tradition. Later I asked around among Chinese people and found out why other Chinese people don’t have this tradition.”

And why didn't you give me an apple on Christmas Eve this year to wish me a peaceful new year?

　A total of 10,000 words are presented here!

　　
　
(End of this chapter)