Technology invades the modern world

Chapter 99 Strategic Concept
"I need to be interviewed in a way that does not compromise my mission to help America lead the space race.

Also, during my meeting with Korolev, he expressed appreciation for my space station plan. I believe the Soviet Union will also advance its own space station plan. I suggest that we need to make a trade-off between landing on the moon and the space station.

Lin Ran did not directly respond to Kennedy's suggestion that he give more interviews, but instead brought up the space race.

This is because Lin Ran is very clear that his current base is still NASA.

Without NASA, everything else is just empty talk.

America was able to tolerate NASA's continuous failures due to the pressure of the space race, and was able to give German scientists status, money and honor, and could also give him.

Therefore, no matter how much the ultra-conservative media throws mud at Lin Ran, and no matter how much the members of the Democratic Party complain in Congress, they cannot cause any substantial trouble to Lin Ran.

Even these slights would not reach his ears.

"Professor Lin, is it possible for us to advance on both fronts simultaneously?

Surpassing the Soviet Union in both respects?" Lyndon Johnson asked.

Lin Ran said: "The budget is insufficient. Some technologies can be shared between them, such as spacecraft docking, but there are more differences.

For example, the life-sustaining system in space ensures that astronauts can survive in space. The requirements for space stations and moon landings are different.

Landing on the moon only takes about a week, and the space station will take much longer.

Even the docking of spacecraft and space stations in space is more complicated because it may be composed of several modules put together like building blocks.

A modular design is required.

In space, the space station needs to consider the docking of the assembly and the single unit, while the moon landing only needs to consider the docking of the single unit and the single unit, and the difficulty of the two is also different.

In addition, the docking system for lunar landings was designed for short-term lunar missions, usually completed within a few days to two weeks. The docking interface does not need to consider the durability issues of long-term exposure to the space environment.

The docking system for the space station needs to support modular assembly and long-term operation. The docking port must be able to withstand multiple uses and remain fully functional in the space environment.

The system design of the space station even needs to take into account the supply and emergency evacuation needs of spacecraft.

It's much more complicated than that.

So it’s not realistic to push forward both at the same time.”

Everyone here felt a little dizzy after listening to this, and everyone vaguely felt that something was wrong.

Because they understood the meaning of increasing the budget.

"If we want to move forward together, we need to increase the budget. The current planned $18 billion is not enough," Lin Ran said. "It needs to be increased to at least $30 billion."

NASA previously proposed to increase its budget to $20 billion, but Congress cut it a bit, so $18 billion is still high.

This is 12% more than the original $50 billion.

Now Lin Ran wants to add more, and everyone is subconsciously afraid:

"Professor Lin, that's enough, it's impossible to add this much.

30 billion is too much.”

"That's right, $30 billion is unrealistic. The total federal budget is only about $120 billion. You're asking for 25% of the federal budget right now. Even if we agree, Congress won't be able to pass it."

Lin Ran continued, “I know it’s impossible, so I think we need to have a focus.

There needs to be a priority order between the space station and the moon landing.

Where should we invest our resources in the next three years?"

Kennedy set the tone: "The priority is still landing on the moon."

After all, he has said in speeches, interviews and in Congress that he will achieve a moon landing within this decade.

No matter how attractive the space station is, landing on the moon is the main goal.

And for the spectators of this space race, landing on the moon was undoubtedly the most amazing thing.

Even if the space station is more practical, everyone only looks at the results.

“Okay, NASA will definitely do its best.

We will achieve phased results next year. The Mariner program will launch a probe to fly over Mars and send back photos of Mars.

This will be the first time we surpass the Soviet Union in space exploration."

Although the Pioneer probe sent back photos of the lunar sky for the first time, the Soviet Union's Luna 3 also took photos of the far side of the moon.

The Pioneer probe's transcendence is more of an attributive level.

It was widely circulated in the media of America and its allies, but in the opposing camp, it was not recognized at all.

And if they can bring back photos of Mars, that would be an indisputable achievement.

“Okay, Randolph, I feel relieved with you here.

We would also like to hear your design for the hotline; we are all very interested in this idea.” Kennedy then asked.

This is the biggest focus today.

The concept of a "hotline" has gained widespread recognition, and the vast majority of people believe that there should be such a thing between two nuclear powers to prevent humanity from going to destruction.

That is why the White House, having suffered a disastrous defeat at the Bay of Pigs, naturally wants to make a comeback internationally.

The hotline was proposed by White House bureaucrats, and it is a credit to the White House.

The reason for asking Lin Ran to come to the White House to discuss this matter was also to hope to make the entire plan clearer, as the other party was the one who proposed this concept.

“Of course, as I said in the interview, everyone should have a preliminary idea.

I think this can reduce tensions and avoid the last line of fire that will destroy humanity.

I still hold this attitude.

Over the past period of time, both the Soviet Union and Russia continued to conduct nuclear tests, and we also planned to start nuclear tests.

In fact, the essence is to build a nuclear deterrent, to deter the other side, and to tell the other side that I have the ability to destroy you.

Many people have mentioned in this process that the role of nuclear weapons is the threat rather than the actual use."

No, I have used it before.

The only two nuclear weapons were used in Japan.

Before the bombing, the Japanese people's friendliness towards the United States was 1%, and after the bombing, the Japanese people's friendliness towards the United States was 99%.

To reflect on why Japan is unfriendly to China, you can refer to what America has done.

"After my visit to Europe, I think we can take this concept a step further and call it nuclear balance.

Both we and the other side possess substantial nuclear weapons, including intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles, enabling each side to launch a devastating strike against the other. We should ensure that both sides embrace the concept of mutually assured destruction, meaning that each side has the capability to launch a devastating counterattack after a nuclear attack, thereby deterring the other side from using nuclear weapons first.

When everyone knows that the other party has such capabilities and the concept of nuclear balance is established, the risk of a nuclear war breaking out among humanity will be greatly reduced.

The hotline is the last link in the nuclear balance.
You can think of the nuclear balance as a balance that remains static. No matter which way the balance falls, the situation may get out of control.

It is best when it is still in the middle.

But in the real world, our strength and that of the Soviet Union cannot be exactly the same, just like you cannot pick up two pebbles of exactly the same weight on the beach.

What's more, the nuclear deterrence capabilities of both sides are a dynamic process.

At this time, to keep the scale balanced, it is best to require two people to apply force to the scale with their hands to keep it balanced.

The hotline serves this purpose, allowing the President and the other side's leaders to put their hands on the scales together."

Lin Ran’s “hotline” concept has been further improved.

This time he took the concept of nuclear deterrence further to the point of mutually assured destruction (MAD), which was also the core concept of the nuclear balance concept in the mid-1960s.

The current Secretary of State McNamara, who originally proposed the MAD concept in 1965, thought the idea was brilliant and found a rare path to peace in the complex and complicated reality:

“Mr. President, I believe that Professor Lin’s proposal is quite feasible.

This will also help people around the world understand America's determination to pursue peace and compete with the Soviet Union on a peaceful basis."

This is a bit too fake.

Just as the Bay of Pigs incident happened, they said they were pursuing peace.

But it's not surprising. Any senior bureaucrat who can work in the White House has the ability to swallow his pride.

If you observe the resumes of bureaucrats, you will find that those who have actually been on the front line tend to want peace, while those who have not been on the front line of the battlefield tend to be more warlike.

McNamara is the best example. When he served in the White House, his previous resume only included service in the Army, where he worked as a statistician.

So later he single-handedly pushed for the Vietnam War and even came up with the McNamara fallacy.

The McNamara fallacy, an informal fallacy, describes the phenomenon of overusing data to evaluate things.

He believed that the reasons for America's defeat in the Vietnam War could be understood through quantitative research. He used quantitative data, such as the number of enemy bodies killed, to measure the success of tactics.

The Americans were also in a state of panic. Even if the casualty ratio in the Baiyue jungle was 1 to 2, in McNamara's view, it was still a victory.

He believed in the extremely abstract idea that "in the abstract, one soldier is more or less equivalent to any other soldier, so that with the right training and superior equipment, any soldier can become a plus factor in the mathematics of war."

With such an abstract figure serving as a minister in the White House, it is no wonder that there was such a loud voice against the Vietnam War in the later period.

What is more abstract is that after the war, he began to oppose the war, and only in his memoirs in his later years did he say that we were wrong, extremely wrong.

Now he would agree with Lin Ran's point of view, on the one hand because Lin Ran's point of view was very reasonable and useful to the White House, and on the other hand because he admired Lin Ran.

It's the kind of admiration that comes from the bottom of my heart.

Personal emotions can often play a decisive role.

If everyone in the White House bureaucrats was friendly to Lin Ran because of his reputation, prestige, and ability to help America win the space race, only McNamara was impressed by his brain.

When he learned that Kennedy was going to appoint Lin Ran as special assistant for White House affairs, he told his wife Margaret that he wanted to celebrate properly, which made his wife at a loss, and she thought he was going to be vice president.

Many of the opposition voices within the Elephant Party were resolved by McNamara, as he was a member of the Elephant Party.

There is no way. For data analysts who believe in data, it is like a Shudra meeting a Brahmin in front of a master of pure mathematics.

After listening to Lin Ran's advice, McNamara's admiration for him increased.

"Mr. President, colleagues, Professor Lin's concept is based on the 'rational actor' hypothesis, but whether we can achieve this kind of rationality while the other side can is unknown."

McNamara admired Lin Ran so much that he even studied Professor Horkheimer's philosophical thoughts. The concept of rational actors mentioned here originated from Horkheimer's "Dialectic of Enlightenment".

"I agree with Professor Lin's proposal, but we also need to repeatedly emphasize through speeches, publicity, and experiments:

We possess a highly reliable capability to achieve nuclear balance that can inflict unacceptable damage to any single aggressor or group of aggressors at any time during a strategic nuclear exchange, even after a surprise attack.

Our ability to ensure destruction needs to be fully understood by the other side.

Yes, it is important to understand that assured destruction is the essence of the entire concept of deterrence.

We must have a realistic assured destruction capability, and that capability must be credible.

And we must convince them that our willingness to use it in retaliation is unwavering.”

After the discussion, Kennedy concluded, “I’m going to push this as quickly as possible.

I first spread the word to the outside world, expressing my hope to establish direct contact with the other party.

In addition, Charles C. Stir was sent to Geneva as a representative to communicate privately with the Soviet Union.

To push this forward.

Kenneth, please remember to emphasize to the White House press secretary and the outside media that this is the credit of the White House.

This is the White House's effort to pursue peace.

This is not a concession.

The American media must be consistent on this point.

Also, Randolph, your advice is fantastic.

The Times is right, you deserve the Nobel Peace Prize.

The White House will work with the Swedish Nobel Committee to propose next year's Nobel Peace Prize winner."

Lin Ran didn't refuse, not because the award was so rare or he wanted it so much.

In 2020, the Chinese people have long been disenchanted with the Nobel Peace Prize, and even the Literature Prize.

The reason why Lin Ran wanted it was very simple, because no mathematician had ever won the Nobel Peace Prize.

Bertrand Russell won the literature prize, John Nash won the economics prize, and Joseph Rotblat won the peace prize for his anti-nuclear efforts, but he was a physicist, not a mathematician.

"Professor Lin, I would like to invite you to lunch. Are you free?" After the meeting, McNamara quietly approached Lin Ran who was packing up his notebooks and asked in a low voice.

Lin Ran felt puzzled and sensed a sense of eagerness in the other person's eyes. He thought that he didn't have much personal relationship with this minister.

But he knew that the other party was definitely a powerful person.

After Lin Ran joined the White House, he carefully collected information on all White House bureaucrats at that time. He knew that the person in front of him was the longest-serving GF minister in American history. After leaving the White House, he served as the president of the World Bank for 13 years and had a very strong network behind him.

"I'm free." Lin Ran didn't refuse, thinking that if the enemy comes, we will fight him with our own army. If the water comes, we will block it with earth.

(End of this chapter)