I'm in the county town, and you say I'm a big shot?

Chapter 69: Speculations after dinner

Before Qin Zhiqing could say anything, Lei Ming, whose face was red from drinking, interrupted him: "Director Mei, why do you care about this?"

"Why don't you care?" Mei Shuwei glanced at him and said:

You at the People's Bank of China probably don't understand how badly the local economy has declined! Fiscal and tax revenues have also plummeted. The government needs to quickly loosen its monetary policy and provide loans to businesses. Only when businesses survive and make money can there be fiscal and tax revenues!

"Why wouldn't I know?" Lei Ming argued. "But changing monetary policy is no joke. A single move can have repercussions on the entire system! The higher-ups are being very cautious!"

"No wonder people say you are conservative! You are afraid of this and that, and by the time you figure it out, all the companies will be dead!" Mei Shuwei said in a somewhat aggressive tone.

"Listen, listen to what he said." Lei Ming said aggrievedly, "I'm just a small section chief in a grassroots branch. What does the formulation of monetary policy have to do with me? This is such a slap on my shoulder."

Xia He did not answer, but glanced at Fang Qingye who was sitting below.

He and I have already discussed this issue a long time ago. Are you still arguing about it?

Fang Qingye didn't notice Xia He's expression. He was a little dizzy from drinking and was drinking bean sprout sobering soup in big gulps.

Qin Zhiqing, who was sitting at the head of the table, came down to smooth things over. "We shouldn't argue about this kind of national issue, but I've heard that the country is indeed changing its current economic policy and loosening monetary policy. They'll probably lower the benchmark lending rate and the reserve requirement ratio soon."

"I've heard that rumor," Lei Ming continued. "But I've also heard there's a lot of debate over how much the reduction should be, even among experts, professors, and economists."

"That's perfectly normal," Qin Zhiqing said with a smile. "Not to mention our country, even in the United States, every time the Federal Reserve cuts or raises interest rates, economists around the world speculate on how many basis points the rate will fall or rise. Some bookmakers even offer bets."

"Hey, everyone, you all work in the financial sector. Tell me, if our country lowers the benchmark lending rate and the reserve requirement ratio this time, how much will they be lowered?" Mei Shuwei suddenly spoke again.

Xia He and Lei Ming both looked at Qin Zhiqing.

"Don't look at me," Qin Zhiqing said with a smile. "My position doesn't allow me to access this important data. Perhaps Professor Liu Qingyu of our school knows more. He's a member of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, and these decisions must be fully discussed by the committee."

"Hey, Xia He, Professor Liu is your mentor." Lei Ming looked at Xia He again.

"It's true that he is my mentor, but do you think Professor Liu can tell me these data? That would be against relevant disciplines!" Xia He said with a smile.

Qin Zhiqing and others also acknowledged this.

This is a state secret. It's okay to talk about the policy shift trend, but if anyone dares to leak the specific data in advance, it's not just a violation of discipline.

"Okay then. You guys can make some guesses and express your own opinions, just like some experts and professors on the Internet." Mei Shuwei raised another question.

Qin Zhiqing was quite interested in this topic. Although he was an official, he was a technical person and liked to discuss these economic issues. Moreover, he was talking to alumni, so there was no pressure to talk about it.

"I've considered this privately," Qin Zhiqing said after a moment's hesitation. "I personally believe that the benchmark one-year lending rate should drop by about 0.3 percentage points, and the reserve requirement ratio should probably be lowered by 1 to 1.5 percentage points."

"My prediction is similar to Director Qin's. The one-year benchmark lending rate should drop by about 0.3 percentage points, but I feel the reserve requirement ratio should drop by at least two percentage points." Yang Kehua also expressed his views.

"I'm going to go a bit lower than you predicted," Lei Ming continued. "The one-year benchmark lending rate should drop by 0.1-0.15 percentage points, and we're still being conservative with the reserve requirement ratio, estimating it to be at most one percentage point."

After saying this, Lei Ming glanced at Mei Shuwei. "I've made a small prediction myself," Yu Yang said immediately. "I work in the Policy and Regulations Department of the Financial Affairs Office, and I've done some research on changes in the country's monetary policy. I personally believe the PBOC's rate cuts will be quite significant. Director Mei is likely deeply impressed. Look at how badly the economy is declining right now, so the country will definitely intensify its policy shift."

"So how much do you think it is?"

"The one-year benchmark lending rate should be lowered by 0.4 percentage points, and the reserve requirement ratio should be raised by at least 3 percentage points!"

"Haha, Yu Yang, your steps are really big." Lei Ming laughed.

"Yeah, it's much bigger than you expected."

Lei Ming's expression changed, but he didn't say anything.

"Senior, what is your prediction?" Mei Shuwei looked at him again.

Xia He had never considered this issue.

As the president of a grassroots bank, she has endless trivial matters to deal with every day. How could she think about things that are so far away from her?
Qin Zhiqing, deputy director of the Provincial Financial Office and a department-level leading cadre, holds a relatively high position and naturally pays more attention to and understands these major events.

Yang Kehua is the deputy president of the branch and a deputy division-level cadre. He is about to be promoted to division-level. He is also sensitive to the data on the benchmark interest rate for loan quasi-loans and the reserve requirement ratio.

Although Lei Ming was only a section-level cadre, he was originally from the People's Bank of China system and was the head of the Monetary and Credit Management Section. He often dealt with these data and was naturally very concerned.

There is also Yu Yang, who works in the Policy and Regulations Department of the Provincial Financial Office, and spends his days dealing with various national economic policies.

The two of them were able to express their own guesses after careful consideration, but what about himself?
Seeing Xia He hesitate, Yu Yang smiled and urged, "Senior sister, you are the only master's student here, and you are Professor Liu's best student. We really want to hear your opinions."

"What do I have to say? I haven't even thought about it."

This Yu Yang is a bit annoying!

Xia He was a little unhappy and wanted to tell the truth, but she felt it would be embarrassing.

The title of my master's thesis when I graduated was "Monetary Policy Expectations and Macroeconomic Effects - Also on the Multi-Indicator Evaluation System of Monetary Policy Macrocontrol", which studied the monetary interest rate and received praise from Professor Liu.

However, I have been working in grassroots banks in recent years, and these theoretical studies have been somewhat neglected.

Thinking of this, she subconsciously looked at Fang Qingye who was sitting below.

At this time, Fang Qingye had finished drinking the sobering soup. He looked at Xia He, who was a little embarrassed, and then at Yu Yang. He took out his mobile phone from his pocket and quickly sent a message.

Xia He immediately saw the QQ message on the phone on the table beep twice, and the QQ avatar with a knife icon was flashing. It was a message from Fang Qingye!
She picked up her phone and opened QQ.

It simply read: "The loan benchmark will be lowered by 0.28 percentage points, the reserve requirement ratio will be lowered by one percentage point, but the five major banks will remain unchanged."

ah? this?
Fang Qingye gave his own guess!
(End of this chapter)