I'm in the county town, and you say I'm a big shot?

Chapter 71 The market is shaken

That night, after returning home, he didn't open Tong Hua Shun, but instead logged into QQ. Surprisingly, the Dongguan girl's profile picture didn't flash today.

He glanced at several classmates' groups. They were all just chatting and gossiping and there was nothing valuable, so he naturally ignored them. He had left many stock groups, and the ones he hadn't left were basically blocked - he was too lazy to even click on them.

However, he plans to go and check out the group of "people with an IQ over 150" to see what these stupid idiots are talking about in the group.
Are you bragging about modeling again?
However, what surprised him today was that these people surprisingly did not talk about modeling, but were actually talking about the central bank's reduction in the benchmark lending rate and the extent of the reduction in the reserve requirement ratio.

So cool that it drags down the internet speed: I estimate that the two figures will be reduced by 0.3% and 1.5% respectively.

Eating seven and a half bowls of rice in one meal: Wrong: According to my modeling calculation, the two downward adjustments were 0.35% and 2% respectively.

His words were immediately ridiculed by the crowd.

Listen to the man's nonsense: "Seven bowls and a half, don't brag in front of me. If you can build a mathematical model to predict these two data, you will be the chief analyst of Citigroup or Morgan Stanley Securities, and I will marry you!"

"No, don't scare me, sister. I would rather find someone so handsome that he slows down the internet speed than marry you!" She replied immediately after eating seven and a half bowls of rice in one meal.

"Get out of here, I'm not gay!"

The building is a bit crooked.

At this moment, the Dongguan girl who had been lurking suddenly popped up: "Don't go off topic! Let's get down to business! I'll count everyone's predictions one by one and see who's right!"

"OK!"

"As ordered!"

Someone responded immediately.

It seems that Dongguan girls have a high reputation among this group of people.

Fang Qingye thought to himself.

"I estimate that the central bank won't lower the benchmark lending rate and the reserve requirement ratio all at once this year. It will definitely be done in several steps, and each step will be small. We'll observe the market reaction as we lower them." The person who spoke was "Listen to Men Tell Tales."

Fang Qingye looked at it and secretly praised it in his heart.

What this woman said is true.

Indeed, in history, the central bank did adopt a small-step-and-quick approach when cutting interest rates this time.

"Then tell me, how much will it be reduced the first time?" someone asked in the crowd.

"The benchmark lending rate is reduced by 0.25%, and the deposit reserve ratio is reduced by 1%." When "Listen to Men Tell Lies" typed out these two data, Fang Qingye was secretly surprised.

This is very close to the real historical data!

However, I still didn’t expect that the five major banks would not move when the reserve requirement ratio was lowered for the first time.

This operation of the central bank is really outrageous!
After everyone in the group finished predicting, I saw the Dongguan girl say in the group: "Now all I need is my husband, I will chat with him privately."

"Him? An undergraduate student who lives in a small place, what can he guess?" The one who eats seven and a half bowls of rice in one meal jumped out immediately.

Fang Qingye remembered that it was this guy who was sarcastic to him about the modeling last time.

Is his hometown in Qin Province? !

I don't want to bother with this kind of idiot with high IQ.

Fang Qingye didn't respond, but saw the Dongguan girl type a line of words: "Seven and a half bowls, are you looking down on my husband again? Don't forget to take the math model, whose garbage is it?!"

"That doesn't count, tell him to come again!" Words like seven and a half bowls of food appeared on the screen, seeming very unconvinced.

"There will be plenty of opportunities in the future. I need to get this competition done first! I'm going to find my husband."

After the Dongguan girl finished speaking, there was no movement from her in the group, but the QQ icon in the sailor suit on Fang Qingye's side began to flash.

Fang Qingye opened it and saw a message from the Dongguan girl. The message was that the group was guessing the central bank's reduction of the benchmark lending rate and the deposit reserve ratio. Everyone was just playing around, there was no other meaning. Her tone today was very normal.

It seems that she has learned her lesson and no longer asks the opening question "Is my husband here?"

Fang Qingye hated this kind of question. If he wanted to leave a message, why not just get down to business?
He pondered for a moment and decided to reply.

"The benchmark one-year RMB lending rate is 0.27 percentage points, 1 percentage point lower than the reserve requirement ratio, excluding the Big Five banks."

"Ah, husband, are you here?" The Dongguan girl typed over immediately and sent a smiley face.

"Just came up." Fang Qingye replied.

"Husband, I think your prediction is a bit too conservative, isn't it?" The Dongguan girl seemed a little skeptical: "What is the basis for your judgment?"

"I dreamt about it last night."

"Ah, husband, you can joke around, too? I thought you were all serious. Just like a cheese potato, hard on the outside but soft on the inside, hehe."

The second part of the story came again, and Fang Qingye decisively logged off.

Sure enough, a few days later, the central bank announced its first monetary easing measures of the year:

The benchmark interest rate for one-year RMB loans will be lowered by 0.27 percentage points, and the benchmark interest rates for loans of other term tiers will be adjusted accordingly based on the principle of more adjustments in the short term and fewer adjustments in the long term; the benchmark deposit rate will remain unchanged.

Except for the five major state-owned banks such as the Agricultural Bank of China, the reserve requirement ratio for RMB deposits of other deposit-taking financial institutions was reduced by 1 percentage point, and the reserve requirement ratio for local corporate financial institutions in the Sichuan earthquake-stricken areas was reduced by 2 percentage points.

As soon as the news came out, the market was shocked.

Since the extent of the reduction did not meet people's expectations, A-shares not only did not rise, but instead fell sharply on the same day.

However, the stock market has nothing to do with Fang Qingye for the time being. He has already sold all his stocks.

At this time, Xia He was at Beifang Mingzhu's home, and then she received a call from her schoolmate Qin Zhiqing from Huijing.

"Xiao Xia, did you watch the news broadcast tonight?"

"I have seen it, Director Qin. You mean the news that the central bank announced a reduction in the benchmark lending rate and the deposit reserve ratio, right?" Xia He said with a smile.

"Yeah, that's amazing! Out of all of us, your guess is closest to the real data. You truly deserve to be Professor Liu's top student."

"You're too kind, Director Qin. I was just lucky." Xia He was very humble.

You have to be humble.

This was not something I had guessed at first; it was all thanks to Fang Qingye.

"Xiao Xia, I suggest that you don't work at the grassroots level, but go back to the provincial bank and do market analysis in the Financial Research Department, which will better enable you to play your strengths." Qin Zhiqing said.

"Director Qin, I want to work at the grassroots level for another two years to accumulate some practical experience." Xia He replied.

"Okay. But you'd better come back before your President Zhou retires, otherwise..." Qin Zhiqing didn't finish his words, but Xia He understood what he meant.

"I understand, thank you for reminding me."

After hanging up the phone with Qin Zhiqing, Xia He received calls from Yang Kehua, Lei Ming and others one after another. They all talked about the prediction of lowering the two interest rates that day, and they all praised her for the most accurate prediction.

Xia He felt very embarrassed.

It's not me, it's that guy!
What is he doing now?

Xia He thought about it and picked up the phone again.

(End of this chapter)