Northern Prefecture Rivers and Mountains

Chapter 400 Hexagram

South of Yinshan Mountain lies Wuyuan.

Under the scorching sun, cavalrymen moved swiftly back and forth, but did not disturb the farmers busy in the fields.

Although these farmers were dressed in short tunics, they had shaved heads and braids, making them clearly Xiongnu and Xianbei people.

Tuoba Si's headquarters were not set up in Wuyuan City, but in the fields.

Wuyuan was another major granary of the Wei Kingdom, besides Pingcheng. During the Qin Dynasty, Meng Tian stationed 300,000 garrison troops here, causing the Xiongnu to flee far away. Emperor Wu of Han mobilized hundreds of thousands of poor people from Guandong and millions of dollars to develop this area.

Tuoba Gui also started his career here, conquering east and west, annexing the Helan, Dugu, and Tiefu tribes, and gradually growing stronger.

Although Pingcheng was a good place, it was far from the rivers. After 400,000 to 500,000 people were relocated to fill the surrounding area, the land became increasingly barren.

Dai County is only so big, and its population capacity is very limited.

This year, a severe drought struck, forcing Tuoba Si to seek food in Wuyuan under the guise of a hunting expedition.

"I intend to establish six garrisons to defend against the Rouran externally, to pacify the various tribes internally, and to protect Pingcheng. What do you all think?" Tuoba Si keenly perceived the importance of the area north and south of Yinshan.

The Rouran were like an ungrateful wolf, raiding southwards every day, posing a huge threat to Pingcheng.

When Tuoba Gui moved the capital to Pingcheng, he stationed troops north and south of the Yin Mountains year-round, collectively known as the "Northern Garrison".

It not only provided Wei with high-quality soldiers, but also served as a fine pasture for Wei.

Tuoba Si wanted to further strengthen the defenses of these "Northern Garrisons" and further subdivide them into six garrisons.

“If we set up six garrisons, wouldn’t that disperse military power? If the Rouran launch a large-scale invasion, how will we defend ourselves?” The Northern Commander, Shusun Puluo, was the first to object.

Without a doubt, Tuoba Si came for the sake of the Shusun family.

After Tuoba Gui purged the noble families, the power of the Changsun and Shusun families grew even stronger.

The Shusun clan successively served as the Northern Chief, governing all the tribes north of Yinshan, while the Changsun clan led the Southern Chief, with military and political affairs within their respective territories handled independently. Although both clans were related, their blood ties were too distant.

Tuoba Si secured his throne, but he held very little real power.

“At present, the Wu people are preparing for war and intend to launch a northern expedition. The time is not yet ripe for establishing the Six Garrisons. Your Majesty should not be too hasty.” Changsun Song was mature and prudent.

Wang Jian said, "Isn't Liu Yu's Northern Army heading towards Yao Qin? What does it have to do with us?"

Changsun Song looked at him as if he were an idiot, "The people of Wu ostensibly come to attack Qin, but in reality they are here for us. After destroying Qin, they will have eight-tenths of the world in their hands. Why wouldn't they cross the Yellow River?"

Tuoba Si frowned. "You mean... Yao Xing is bound to lose?"

After all, the Qin state was a powerful nation, with over 100,000 infantry and cavalry. The Wei state had never dared to let its guard down in recent years.

"Yao Xing couldn't even handle Liu Bobo, suffering repeated defeats and losing territory. The land north of Longshan fell entirely to Liu Bobo, and the tribes in Hexi were disloyal and disaffected. Qin was on its last legs. Who are Liu Yu and Liu Daogui? They are both tigers and wolves of the world. They must have sensed the weakness of Yao Qin. If it is too easy for them to destroy Qin, they will surely take advantage of their great victory to attack us!"

Changsun Song, a veteran minister of three generations, possessed sharp insights.

In fact, the situation in Wei was not much better. With a new ruler on the throne, the emperor was young and his ministers were suspicious, so the foundation was unstable. Moreover, a lot of troops were tied down by the Rouran.

After destroying Southern Yan, Qiao Shu, and the rebel forces, the Jin dynasty had the momentum to sweep across the land.

The Northern Army has grown stronger with each battle in recent years, always winning with fewer troops, defeating tens of thousands of enemy soldiers with just a few thousand men, and becoming a force to be reckoned with.

Tuoba Si said, "If the lips are gone, the teeth will be cold. In that case, wouldn't we be forming an alliance with Qin to jointly resist Jin?"

Changsun Song said, "Yao Qin will surely perish in this battle. Forming an alliance will only drag us down. It would be better to station our main army in Nanpi and Yecheng, and launch a feigned attack on Qing and Yan to distract the Jin army."

With Pingyuan Commandery in the hands of Wei, the Xianbei cavalry could directly cross the Yellow River and invade the two provinces of Qing and Yan.

Changsun Fei said, "Yao Qin has Tongguan, Puban, and Wuguan. Although the Northern Army is strong, it will not be easy for them to attack Guanzhong. As long as Yao Xing can hold off the Northern Army, I am willing to lead 100,000 infantry and cavalry to launch a surprise attack on Pengcheng!"

Although the Wei court believed that Yao Qin was doomed, the Jin army would not have an easy time winning.

In the Battle of Chaibi, the Qin state suffered a crushing defeat, with 40,000 elite troops wiped out, yet they still managed to hold off Tuoba Gui at Puban.

Changsun Fei had fought against the Qin army and also fought against the Northern Army at Huatai, so he was very familiar with the strength of both sides.

During the war between Jin and Qin, the State of Wei reaped the benefits.

If Pengcheng can be captured, the balance of power in the world will shift dramatically.

Moreover, according to past practice, the Jin dynasty's northern expeditions mostly ended in haste.

The journey from Jiankang, Pengcheng, and Xiangyang to Guanzhong was incredibly long, and the longer Qin held out, the more advantageous it would be for Wei.

"With the Marquis of Lantian here, I have no worries." Tuoba Si exclaimed in admiration. After praising him, he suddenly turned his gaze to Shusun Puluo. "Pengcheng is the gateway to the Jianghuai region and the heart and courage of the Wu people. I will send 200,000 infantry and cavalry, and the Marquis of Wuyuan should go with me!"

Shusun Puluo glanced at his cousin Shusun Jian beside him. Although he knew that Tuoba Si had ill intentions, he could not refuse in front of so many people. "Your subject will lead the elite troops of various tribes to the south to attack Jin." "At that time, we will have to rely on you all." Tuoba Si was young, but he had a good grasp of human relationships.

"How dare we not do our utmost!"

The group performed the Xianbei salute and returned to their respective tents.

After everyone left, Tuoba Si said in a low voice, "After this battle, I intend to move the capital to Ye City. What do you think, Tao Jian?"

Tao Jian was Cui Hao's nickname. The two were close in age, both young men. Tuoba Si was fond of yin-yang numerology, so he often listened to Cui Hao explain the I Ching and the Five Elements, and ordered him to divine good and bad fortune. His predictions were often accurate, and he was highly regarded by Cui Hao.

The Dai Commandery had limited carrying capacity and was frequently plagued by droughts, which greatly troubled Tuoba Si, leading him to consider moving the capital.

Cui Hao said, “Moving the capital to Ye can alleviate this year’s famine, but it is not a long-term solution. Now that we are in the north, if there is any unrest in Shandong, we can send light cavalry south to show off our military might. The people will be terrified at the sight of us. This is a long-term strategy for the state to control the various tribes. If we move the capital to Ye, we will inevitably become alienated from the tribes in the south of the Gobi Desert. If this continues, the northern garrison will surely be in great chaos. This is destroying our own foundation.”

"However, Pingcheng has a shortage of grain, and the army and civilians cannot be fed. What should we do?"

Cui Hao quickly came up with an idea: "The Xianbei are skilled in nomadic life. Why should Your Majesty be confined to one place? You can lead your army to tour various regions. If Ye City has a good harvest, then head south to Ye City. If Jinyang is well-prepared, then head west to Jinyang. This will alleviate the famine, allow you to control the armies, and intimidate the local people."

Tuoba Si was greatly impressed, exclaiming, "Wonderful, wonderful! Tao Jian possesses the talent of a king's advisor!"

Cui Hao's casual words resolved Tuoba Si's various worries.

What Tuoba Si lacked most at the moment was military power. Only after Tuoba Gui fought his way out of Niuchuan, annexed various tribes, and defeated powerful enemies such as Rouran, Later Yan, and Yao Qin, did he firmly grasp military power.

A new emperor brings a new court; Tuoba Si's succession to the throne did not equate to his succession to military power.

As the emperor led his troops on "hunts" around, over time these troops naturally became his personal guard.

Cui Hao casually retorted, "Your Majesty is also a great ruler of our time!"

Unexpectedly, Tuoba Si, who was in high spirits, suddenly became interested and asked, "How does he compare to Murong Chui?"

Although Murong Chui had been dead for many years, he still held great power in Hebei.

The Xianbei tribes, including the Tuoba, Murong, Yuwen, and Duan clans, were once unified by Tan Shihuai. It was only after Tan Shihuai's death that the Xianbei split apart.

Cui Hao said meaningfully, "Your Majesty is detached from worldly affairs, unlike Murong Chui."

Tuoba Si laughed and said, "I understand the meaning of the peach slip. I wonder what Liu Yu, Liu Daogui, and Murong Chui think?"

"In terms of martial prowess, Liu Yu is superior, but in terms of talent, Liu Daogui is superior, and Murong Chui is inferior to the two brothers."

"You may try to describe its appearance," Tuoba Si said with great interest.

Without hesitation, Cui Hao said, "Murong Chui inherited the privileges of his father and grandfather, and was born into nobility. With a single call, his clan would flock to him like moths to a flame. With just a little support, he could achieve great things. Liu Yu and Liu Daogui rose from humble beginnings, without seeking any land or even a single soldier. Yet, with a single call, they annihilated Huan Xuan, captured Murong Chao in the north, and crushed Lu Xun and others in the south. They usurped the Jin dynasty and brought it to its knees, eventually seizing control of the state! If this battle destroys the Yao Qin dynasty, he will surely usurp the Sima clan; it is inevitable."

Tuoba Si nodded repeatedly.

Murong Chui was indeed formidable, but he was born a prince and protected by his father and brothers. He was able to lead an army in just thirteen years. After the Battle of Fei River, Fu Jian was preoccupied with his own problems, and the Di-Qin state was in disarray. Murong Chui took the opportunity to return to Hebei and raise an army.

Liu Yu and Liu Daogui came from humble backgrounds and started from scratch. In just over a decade, they swept across the east and west, seizing power. Their achievements were many times more difficult than those of Murong Chui.

Cui Hao's gaze deepened. "However, the Qin region is inhabited by various barbarian tribes, a land of tigers and wolves, difficult for the Jin people to defend. Customs differ, and human nature is hard to change. To try to implement the culture of Jing and Yang in the Qin region is like trying to fly without wings or walk without feet—it is impossible. If we leave the people to guard it, they will surely be aided by the bandits. Confucius said: 'A virtuous man can govern a state for a hundred years, or he can eliminate cruelty and killing.' Now, given how difficult it is to control Qin, how could Liu Yu or Liu Daogui possibly manage it in one or two years? Your Majesty should govern the barbarians, allow the people to rest, and prepare the borders, awaiting their return. The Qin region will eventually belong to Your Majesty, and you can defend it without lifting a finger."

The Northern Army could destroy Qin, but the question is whether it could establish a firm foothold after the destruction of Qin.

At this time, Guanzhong was no longer the same as it had been two or three hundred years ago during the Han and Wei dynasties. Nine out of ten Jin people had left, and barbarians were everywhere. The Jin dynasty's foundation was in Jiangdong, thousands of miles away from Guanzhong.

The Jin dynasty's foundation for rule in Guanzhong was pitifully weak.

Tuoba Si was overjoyed, "Your words are spot on. Even if Liu Yu were to be resurrected as the Hegemon-King, what could he do to Guanzhong? In the end, he would only be a stepping stone for others."

Cui Hao took out three copper coins from his pocket and cast a divination. The upper trigram was Kan, the lower trigram was Xun, and the wind was below the water, which turned out to be the Well trigram.

When those above are trapped, they will inevitably turn to those below; therefore, they are given a well.

Cui Hao stared blankly at the hexagram. In military terms, it meant a situation with nine deaths and one life, but there was wind in the well, water below, and earth around the water, implying a continuous and inexhaustible cycle of life.

The Book of Changes says: The Great Way is fifty, Heaven extends forty-nine, and man escapes one.

A person's fate is closely related to the will of Heaven. Any hexagram can change depending on the person. Nine deaths does not necessarily mean certain death; there is still a chance of survival.

Tuoba Si, who had only a superficial understanding of the Book of Changes, pointed to the azure sky and said with great enthusiasm, "Guanzhong is a well. If the Northern Army enters Guanzhong, they will be trapped inside. This shows that the Mandate of Heaven is in Wei. The rise of the Xianbei and the decline of the Jin people is an inevitable trend."

After saying this, he mounted his horse and, with his guards, galloped westward at breakneck speed.

Cui Hao had a sudden realization. He looked up at the sky, feeling as if he had missed something.

It's common for divination results to be inaccurate; fortunes change and vary depending on the person and the circumstances.

(End of this chapter)