Starting with a fully invested A-share portfolio to become a capital...

Chapter 248 Institutional Self-Rescue Operation: Zhang Yang Analyzes the Methods of Speculative Capital

On October 26th, with only three trading days remaining before the delivery of 30 million shares of Shancheng Beer, Shancheng Beer had hit the daily limit for three consecutive trading days before the market opened today, and was currently trading at 43.27 yuan.

Based on the anchor price of 62.43 yuan, the "Zhangjiang gang" currently has a profit of 19.16 yuan per share, which multiplied by 3000 million shares equals 5.748 million yuan.

Assuming the stock price hits the daily limit for the next three days, it could reach a high of 57.6 yuan. This means that Chaos Investment is doomed to lose, with a minimum loss of 4.83 yuan per share.

A six-day winning streak carries extremely high risk, and subsequent selling pressure needs to be considered. Therefore, institutional managers such as Ge Weidong, Xu Xiang, and Wang Yawei did not set a target price of 57.6 yuan, but instead chose 50 yuan.

Assuming they can successfully sell at 50 yuan, they can keep their losses below 5 million yuan, and most of the losses are from miscellaneous investments. Shancheng Beer could even exit with a profit.

At this moment, in the office of the founder of Chaos Investment at the Shanghai World Financial Center, Ge Weidong changed into a red suit, paired with gold trousers and gold leather shoes, giving off a rural, non-mainstream vibe that could be described as extremely tacky.

His recent investment setbacks led him to not only renovate his ancestral graves and fill them with incense, but also to consult a fortune teller.

The fortune teller told Ge Weidong that he would clash with the God of Wealth in the second half of the year and needed to wear clothes in more festive colors, avoiding white, gray, and black clothing as much as possible. To follow the advice, he even changed his underwear to red.

For a person with a strong inner self, Ge Weidong doesn't care about other people's opinions, because if he did, he might have been stuck in his hometown in Guizhou for the rest of his life.

"If Shancheng Beer's stock price rebounds to above 50 yuan, our overall losses in this round can be reduced to less than 10 billion yuan."

Song Zijun reported.

When he saw Ge Weidong this morning, he almost lost his composure, but when he thought that the other party was a staunch supporter of numerology and metaphysics, he was not surprised. After all, he had seen even more outrageous cases, with offices filled with all sorts of feng shui objects.

"One billion?"

Ge Weidong muttered to himself.

With his back to Song Zijun, he looked down at the shimmering river surface in the distance, and asked, "How much has China Unicom raised?"

"I already hold 50 million shares, 25 million in Hong Kong and 25 million in A-shares, for a total holding of approximately 330 million RMB."

"Okay." Ge Weidong replied, looking towards the estuary of the Huangpu River. He could still see the golden toad there. Then he asked, "How long will it take us to completely sell off our holdings in Guangfu Pharmaceutical?"

"Based on the current market conditions, at the latest within 10 trading days, I made a mistake with this stock, resulting in a loss of over 6 million yuan, far more than the loss from Shancheng Beer," Song Zijun admitted.

I thought I could pull in two leading stocks, but I didn't expect that Shancheng Beer, the leading company in curative hepatitis B vaccines, was actually a "mixed-race stock".

Shancheng Beer has a profit margin, so their losses are not too serious. Guangfu Pharmaceutical, on the other hand, does not have a profit margin, and its losses are real.

"It's not terrible to make a mistake in the trend, you can just correct it. I'm leaving this round of China Unicom's market performance to you. I need to study sugar and cotton, there might be a market trend in the next two years."

Having suffered such heavy losses, Ge Weidong plans to recoup them in the futures market.

The stock market was not his main battleground; the futures market was where he made his name.

"Okay, Dong-ge, I'll head back now," Song Zijun replied quickly.

He felt extremely guilty about the huge losses he incurred in this round of investment, but he also knew that wallowing in self-blame was pointless; he needed to recoup his losses on China Unicom.

"Ah."

Ge Weidong did not turn around, but continued to gaze towards the estuary of the Huangpu River.

Perhaps everyone thinks he's superstitious, but only Ge Weidong himself knows that some things cannot be explained by science.

For example, investing in futures was never part of his life plan, but he somehow ended up in it.

Fate and destiny may truly exist, but they are invisible to the naked eye.

……

Upon entering the open-plan office area, Song Zijun raised his voice and emphasized, "Within 30 minutes, I want to see a new wave of news pollution, luring retail investors into our trap!"

"Roger that!"

"understand!"

"understand!"

In an instant, the online trolls and news promoters of Chaos Investment mobilized in droves, using a mix of true and false information to deceive retail investors.

Shocking! Malt prices have fallen again, currently quoted at 1900 yuan/ton. Shancheng Beer has directly reduced raw material costs by approximately 20% through centralized procurement and inventory management, potentially leading to explosive growth in its third-quarter performance!

"City Beer's production capacity is being significantly increased! 25 tons from the Northern New Area and 20 tons from Jiuhuashan, bringing the total new capacity to 45 tons for the year, reaching a total of 140 million tons, laying the foundation for future sales growth!"

"High-quality stocks shouldn't be overlooked. Shancheng Beer, a leading local beer brand, holds an absolute advantage in its home market, boasting a 90% market share in urban areas and over 75% in county-level markets. Leveraging its strong channel control and brand loyalty, the company has withstood competition from national brands like Snow and Qingdao, ensuring stable regional profits!"

[Latest positive news from Shancheng Beer! The company announced that it will further integrate the Southwest market, forming a regional network centered on Shancheng and covering Sichuan, Chongqing, southern Hunan, and East China, further opening up the national market!]

With concepts like cost reduction, capacity expansion, regional protection, and a nationwide market, many individual investors have been misled and become confused.

Most importantly, it wasn't just Chaos Investment that was driving the news, but a dozen or so institutions working together to bombard the news.

Among them, Wang Xi, a researcher at Industrial Securities, once again released a market research report on Shancheng Beer, entitled "Should Focus on Shancheng Beer's Main Business".

This market research report can be summarized into two main points.

1. Shancheng Beer's main beer business will usher in a new growth point, based on the logic of a significant reduction in malt costs and the explosion of new production capacity.

2. Jiachen Bio's synthetic peptide hepatitis B vaccine has a very small impact on the stock price, and the stock price fluctuations should be viewed rationally.

Besides Wang Xi, other public fund institutions such as China Asset Management, Harvest Fund, and Southern Asset Management, as well as some financial online influencers, have all expressed their optimism about Shancheng Beer.

Driven by the information cocoon of the internet, some retail investors have already begun to waver.

[Loves Fried Chicken Wings]: Shancheng Beer has dropped from 79 yuan to 43.27 yuan this round, which should be the bottom. If it pulls back, it may be a good buying point.

[Time Killer]: It's already hit the daily limit for three consecutive days. I hate myself for not buying back then. Damn it, otherwise I would be enjoying the profits now.

[Your Heart Is Like My Heart]: The stock price of Shancheng Beer should not be overstated. The reason is simple: the global economy is recovering, and consumption will pick up. When consumption picks up, people will definitely enjoy barbecue and drinks. Therefore, I think the stock price of Shancheng Beer can reach 100 yuan.

[Fighting is so exhilarating]: With so many institutions bullish on this, if I have the opportunity, I'll take a small initial position to see how things go. I hope the major players will give me a chance.

The internet has a short memory; a gust of wind can cause netizens to forget yesterday's hot news. The same is true for stock market investors, whose memories are also very short.

Besides short-lived memories, there are far more gamblers in the secondary market than one might imagine.

Even stocks that are openly delisted will find buyers.

With the continuous positive news about its main business, Shancheng Beer is attracting more and more potential funding.

……

Zhangjiang, the capital of Shanghai.

Area A, 7th Floor, Block A, Changtai Plaza.

Open trading area.

With the addition of Zeng Lingshan, Feng Weiqiang, and Chen Xiaoqun, Zhang Yang no longer chose the meeting room on the 6th floor of Caiyan.com as the gang's base, but instead chose Area A on the 7th floor as the meeting place for stock trading.

When Shengtian Investment and Shengtian Think Tank were established, Zhang Yang rented the 7th floor of Building A in Changtai as an office space.

The two companies only have about 30 employees working in the office, so it would be a waste to occupy such a large area. Therefore, Zhang Yang had designated Area A as the gang's trading base a long time ago. They hadn't moved in before because it was still under renovation.

At this time, on the 7th floor of the building, Area A is separated from Areas B and C by a layer of privacy and soundproof glass, and you need to swipe your ID card to enter.

Area A has a total area of ​​over 600 square meters. Now, not only has Lin Guangchang's coffee machine been moved up, but it has also been equipped with a refrigerator and a sofa for resting, making it even more VIP than the VIP room of a securities brokerage.

Most importantly, a large screen displaying the Shanghai Composite Index was installed on one side of the trading area, showing various indicators such as intraday, daily, and MACD data, as well as alerts for sectors with unusual activity.

Of course, it can not only display the Shanghai Composite Index, but also project the screen when necessary, so that everyone's attention can be drawn to it.

At this moment, Lin Guangchang, Liao Guopei, Zeng Lingshan, Feng Weiqiang, and Chen Xiaoqun were all watching the screen, which displayed a series of positive news about Shancheng Beer, as well as excerpts of retail investor comments selected by Zhang Yang.

"To learn how to make money in the stock market, you must first improve your cognitive thinking and have a certain understanding of the market."

“Value investing is possible in the A-share market, but it is more of a zero-sum game. We speculative funds are a product of zero-sum games.”

"Can anyone tell me what a zero-sum game is?"

Zhang Yang stood in front of Liao Guopei, Lin Guangchang, Zeng Lingshan, Feng Weiqiang, and Chen Xiaoqun, with a whiteboard behind him. He looked just like a lecturer holding a whiteboard marker.

As one of only two people here with a formal financial background, Feng Weiqiang immediately replied: "Zero-sum game is a concept in game theory, which means that the gain of one party must be equal to the loss of the other party, and the total gain and total loss of all participants add up to zero."

“That’s right.” Zhang Yang nodded slightly and continued, “To put it simply, every penny you earn corresponds to every penny someone else loses. The benefits you receive all come from others; there are no extra benefits that come out of thin air.”

"If you want to become speculative investors, you must understand this: value investors are not our targets. Our target is speculative investors. We need to find ways to lure them into our trap and then empty their wallets."

How do you hollow it out?

Zhang Yang paused for half a second, looking at Liao Guopei and Lin Guangchang.

"mood."

"consensus."

The two spoke in unison, but their answers differed.

Zhang Yang nodded again and continued, "That's right. If you want to take money from retail investors, you have to make them feel emotional and reach a consensus."

He paused for half a second before continuing to share his stock trading experience: "Consensus can generate value, just like antiques. Walnuts and chicken feet bones can sell for tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of Chinese yuan because people play with them and collect them, thus reaching a consensus."

“Consensus can generate value, so emotions generate a premium. You're more qualified to talk about the Shadowless Kick.” “Huh?”

Zhang Yang's sudden naming caught Liao Guopei off guard, but he also shared his insights, saying, "When emotions run high, people are willing to pay a premium. Many stocks are not worth that price; they are simply driven up by emotions."

“That’s right.” Zhang Yang smiled, but then changed the subject: “But I’m not asking you to say that. I’m asking you to talk about how many times you’ve been involved in illegal activities when you’re in nightclubs and bars and you’re in a high mood.”

"Um, I can't remember."

Liao Guopei answered truthfully.

"Can you finish all that alcohol?"

"We can't finish it."

Why should we order it?

"I'm thrilled by the marketing girl's charm and I support her performance."

As soon as he finished speaking, Zhang Yang looked at Zeng Lingshan, Feng Weiqiang, and Chen Xiaoqun, who were listening attentively to the lecture, and said, "This is the emotional premium, and it is also the best selling point for speculative funds to unload their shares, because the buying support is the strongest."

"Let's go back to the topic of consensus. How do we get retail investors to reach a consensus?"

This time, Zhang Yang looked at Lin Guangchang. The other man had been with him for four or five months, so there was no way he didn't know the answer.

"The essence of consensus is recognition. If you want retail investors to come in, you have to make them recognize the value of this stock."

Lin Guangchang blurted it out.

Don't be fooled by the fact that he was just a third-tier speculative investor six months ago. After following Zhang Yang for so long, his "harvesting mindset" has reached first-tier level. He's just short of writing his own "Family Management Manual".

"Yes."

Zhang Yang gave Lin Guangchang an appreciative look. None of the five tiger generals here were ordinary people. Perhaps they had not yet grown up, but when they finally showed their fangs, they would be able to crush the Ningbo Limit-Up Daredevil Team led by Xu Xiang.

After clearing his mind, he continued, "The essence of consensus is recognition. To gain the recognition of retail investors, you have to tell them stories and talk about the prospects. Just like the Internet 15 years ago, the phrase 'trillion-dollar market' attracted countless American retail investors. Just by telling stories, you can create a huge bubble, and after the bubble burst, the market fell for three consecutive years."

"In summary, the strategy is to first create a story to attract the first batch of retail investors, then use their financial advantage to draw in candlestick charts and technical indicators to attract technically savvy retail investors, and finally use the internet's reach and the price limit to boost retail investor sentiment, ultimately reaping the profits!"

Upon hearing this, Zeng Lingshan, who had come to Shanghai to take a gamble, raised his hand and asked, "Boss, how do we make up a story that retail investors will believe?"

Zhang Yang smiled calmly, turned to look at the large screen hanging on the wall and said, "Look, here's a ready example. The current stock market performance of Shancheng Beer is a story of reduced malt costs, new capacity release, regional protection, and a large national market. In short, it's a story of expected performance growth."

“Apart from the cost of malt, which individual investors can understand intuitively through data, other data is beyond the reach of ordinary individual investors. The factory will not allow you to enter and conduct research, and you cannot inquire with relevant departments about regional protection. Furthermore, the expectations for the national market are not things that ordinary individual investors can investigate.”

"You can make all sorts of claims as long as retail investors have no way of verifying them, and all you need to do is get them to come in and take over the losses."

"besides!"

Suddenly, Zhang Yang changed the subject and said, "To gain the approval of retail investors, we can also use new concepts. You should know that when a new concept emerges, its upper and lower limits are unknown. We can process and promote it to stimulate the imagination of retail investors."

"Take the Internet of Things (IoT) we're developing, for example. What will happen if we connect cars to the internet? What will happen if we connect our home air conditioners to the internet? What will happen if we connect everything around us to the internet? That's our narrative space."

The powerful and resounding narration left the "Five Tigers" deep in thought, while Zeng Lingshan, Feng Weiqiang, and Chen Xiaoqun, who came later, felt as if a new world had been opened to them.

Zeng Lingshan, in particular, leans towards value investing.

Because the blue-chip stocks he bought in February had doubled in value by August, and also because he was young and had never been exposed to "Game Theory".

However, as Zhang Yang dissected the logic behind the price increase from the perspective of speculative capital, he suddenly realized that his ability to profit multiple times was largely due to luck, or rather, talent.

At this moment, only Zhang Yang in the trading area knew the upper limit of Zeng Lingshan, Feng Weiqiang, and Chen Xiaoqun.

Zeng Lingshan dropped out of school to trade stocks. In his previous life, he was nicknamed "Retreat God." He struggled repeatedly and corrected his investment strategies. Finally, he attained enlightenment in a rented room and became a top-tier speculative investor.

Feng Weiqiang, nicknamed "Little Crocodile" in his previous life, studied under Lin Guangchang and mastered the "Family Raising Techniques". He made over 100 million yuan in three years, with an initial capital of only 3000 yuan.

Chen Xiaoqun, nicknamed "Chen Jianding" in his previous life, was the master of the "Emotional Leader Strategy," a speculative investor who could rival Zhang Jianping and lead the way in his generation.

The three young talents, including Liao Guopei and Lin Guangchang, are currently in the enlightenment stage, and Zhang Yang's task is to nurture them and help them realize their talents as soon as possible.

"If we are ordinary retail investors, or just follow the trend, how do we judge whether this concept is reliable or not?" Chen Xiaoqun suddenly asked.

"To judge whether a concept is reliable or not, you need to look at your accumulated knowledge. Just like how you can get to know a lot of people after chatting with them for a few minutes, you can tell what kind of person they are and what their personality is like. Stock trading is not something that you can understand just by looking at K-lines, MACD, and volume-price relationships. It is a comprehensive system. Do you understand?" Zhang Yang answered, and then asked a question in return.

"Understood, multiple lines of evidence."

Chen Xiaoqun responded.

"That's the idea." Zhang Yang nodded, noticing that the market was about to open, and then assigned tasks: "The A-share market is about to open. We can discuss anything we don't understand during trading hours. Now, let's assign tasks for accumulating shares."

"Shadowless Kick"

"Here!" Liao Guopei, channeling his acting prowess, stood up straight, saluted Zhang Yang, and asked, "What are your orders, sir?"

"You're in charge of accumulating shares in Yuanwanggu."

"Yes!"

"To support the family."

"Ok?"

"A new frontier for attracting investment."

"Row."

"Drop out of school, Little Crocodile, and Chen Xiaoqun are operating like guerrillas in the market. Remember, we are a gang. If you're unsure about anything, just ask."

"Okay boss."

"Received, boss."

"It has to be Joker who made the arrangements."

Zeng Lingshan, Feng Weiqiang, and Chen Xiaoqun all began to feel fortunate to have joined this gang, their future prospects were so bright they couldn't sleep.

……

As the time reached 9:30, both major indices opened higher. The Shanghai Composite Index opened at 3114.29, up slightly by 0.11%, while the Shenzhen Component Index opened at 12869.34, up slightly by 0.23%.

However, the good times didn't last long; after a brief period of gains, the index began to fall.

Zhang Yang glanced at the screen casually and said, "When the index falls, we need to look at the banking and securities sectors first. If the banking sector falls, it may indicate that the national team is suppressing the market, or there may be systemic risks that are causing institutional investors to sell off their holdings."

"Remember, only institutional investors can cause fluctuations in bank stocks; ordinary investors cannot price bank stocks."

"As for securities, they represent the attitude of market funds. Whether they lead the decline or the rise, they reflect the sentiment of market funds, which is why they are called the standard-bearers of bull markets."

Feng Weiqiang glanced at the banking sector and said, "Banks are currently rising; are they supporting the overall market index?"

What is the purpose of the protection index?

Zeng Lingshan then spoke.

Chen Xiaoqun, who was standing to the side, thought for a moment and asserted, "The ChiNext board is just like China State Construction Engineering Corporation; state funds need to stabilize the market."

"He has talent."

Liao Guopei praised Chen Xiaoqun's special talent, a hint of surprise flashing in his eyes. No wonder Zhang Yang brought Chen Xiaoqun into the team; he must have some kind of extraordinary talent.

"We have to make dumplings for this dish of vinegar," Lin Guangchang said with a faint smile.

While accumulating shares in Internet of Things (IoT) concept stocks, the two also taught, and Zhang Yang did the same, allowing Zeng Lingshan, Feng Weiqiang, and Chen Xiaoqun to work freely while occasionally giving them pointers.

Throughout the day, Chen Xiaoqun bought Hanlan Environment at the bottom and closed with a 5.4% gain. Zeng Lingshan and Feng Weiqiang also bought at the bottom in the morning, but Zeng Lingshan's choice of Huaguo Shenhua saw a smaller increase and even closed down 0.2%, while Feng Weiqiang's choice of Zhongtong Bus yielded a 1.3% gain.
Seeing that Zeng Lingshan's return was in the red, Zhang Yang patiently advised him, "Buying Huaguo Shenhua is a good idea. It has both the expectation of market rescue due to funding pressure and the expectation of winter cyclical demand. However, it is a long-term stock. We play the short-term game and need to cater to the movement of market funds and find stocks driven by market sentiment."

"I've got it, boss. I'll go back and do a thorough review." Zeng Lingshan silently noted it down.

Changing old investment habits is not something that can be done overnight, but it is possible to correct them as long as you are determined.

"Yes, reviewing is a good habit," Zhang Yang nodded in agreement.

Looking at the doji candlestick pattern on the chart, Chen Xiaoqun stretched and said, "I bought a dragonfly doji. I wonder if the market will change direction tomorrow."

"I hope it changes course; only with a change in course will there be more opportunities," Feng Weiqiang added.

"Speed ​​is the key to real speed. When the ChiNext board opens on the 30th, there are still two leading companies and four smaller ones accumulating shares. We'll be busy then."

Lin Guangchang also stretched.

Liao Guopei, who was standing to the side, opened QQ and sent the transaction record to Zhang Yang, saying, "I've sent you the accumulation transaction record, Joker. Shancheng Beer didn't even hit the daily limit today."

“Raising it too high isn’t good either; it’s not conducive to their shipments,” Zhang Yang replied calmly, his eyes showing no emotion.

He has been paying close attention to Shancheng Beer. After witnessing today's sharp drop and subsequent rebound, he can most likely conclude that Ge Weidong and Xu Xiang may be choosing to distribute their shares through sideways consolidation.

Why is it said that novices die from trying to buy at the bottom, while experts die from trading sideways?
The reason is that novices often rely on their own feelings to buy at the bottom. Once they enter the market, they easily buy at the halfway point of the decline, then frantically add to their positions, and finally get completely trapped by the major players.

Experts often fail during sideways trading because it can be a time for both consolidation and distribution of shares. It is very difficult to distinguish between consolidation and distribution, and there are many possible turning points.

If you're selling off your holdings, you're hoping to profit from day trading during sideways consolidation, but the other party is after your principal.

(End of this chapter)