God's imitator

Chapter 11 Psychological Manipulation
Cao Haichuan took out the cigarette case again and realized once more that he shouldn't smoke.

He was getting a little impatient, so he stood up, went to the big screen, and continued explaining the relevant information on the screen.

"As we analyzed before, the initial state of the iron block mechanism is a certain distance from his head."

"Wei Xinjian actually has a margin of error of two shots. Even if he chooses to shoot an innocent person, it will not cause him any harm."

"In other words, this initial design of the mechanism created a false sense of security for him."

"Compared to a metal block that hasn't yet clamped onto the head, a handgun with a 1/6 chance of causing death by gunshot is clearly more terrifying."

"This is the first shot; he is not yet fully prepared psychologically for the idea of ​​'shooting himself.'"

"What if the first shot is a live bullet? A 1/6 probability isn't low." Driven by this thought, he would most likely choose to shoot an innocent person with his first shot.

"Conversely, if the iron block had been close to his head from the beginning, he might have made a more rational choice with that first shot."

Everyone nodded in agreement; this was indeed a detail they hadn't considered before.

Jiang He asked curiously, "Then what about the second and third shots?"
"He's pretty much mentally prepared to take a beating himself, isn't he?"
"Moreover, he showed obvious hesitation when firing the second shot."

Programmer Cai Zhiyuan spoke up: "Officer Cao, I think I understand now. Let me explain."

"Actually, it's still a matter of probability."

"Because the probability of being hit by the first shot is 1/6, while the probability of being hit by the second shot is 1/5, and so on."

"If the previous shot is a blank, then the probability of hitting with each subsequent shot is higher than with the previous shot."

"Therefore, if he doesn't choose to shoot himself in the first shot, he will fall into regret, like a sunk cost, which will further affect his judgment."

"This made him even more hesitant with every shot he fired afterward."

"When he points the second shot at himself, driven by the 'sunk cost,' he will have many other thoughts, such as, this shot has a higher chance of hitting the target than the last shot, or what if the game designers deliberately put the bullet in the second shot?"

"From a rational perspective, his concerns are unfounded and do not help in assessing the situation at all."

"But in the life-or-death decision with five minutes left, it is already difficult for a person to remain rational, and these tiny pieces of incorrect information can easily interfere with his thinking and make him feel lucky."

"Because if the next shot is fired at an innocent person, even if it's an empty shell, he still won't be harmed."

"The same logic applies to the third shot; changes in sunk costs and probabilities will further influence his decision-making."

"After the first three shots were fired, Wei Xinjian's head was squeezed by a piece of iron, and he was filled with great regret, but by then, it was obviously too late."

Cao Haichuan nodded approvingly: "That's right, exactly."

“You have given me the specific probability, which is clearer than I originally thought.”

"However, overall, we share the same view."

But then, Cai Zhiyuan fell into confusion again.

"However, even disregarding the first three shots and only considering the last three shots, as long as he knows the answers to the three questions, he should still be able to survive."

“If the fourth and fifth shots are fired at himself and the sixth shot is fired at an innocent person, his head will at most be squeezed by the mechanism again, but he may still not die.”

Cao Haichuan shook his head slightly: "First of all, Wei Xinjian may not know about the Three Gates issue."

"He probably doesn't understand the changes in probability before and after, and the increased probability of being hit by the fourth shot makes him even more afraid to shoot himself."

"Secondly, the news that 'the fifth shot was a blank' was not a sign of mercy from the designers, but rather a death warrant."

Cai Zhiyuan was even more confused: "What do you mean?"

Cao Haichuan pointed to the information on the screen:

"Wei Xinjian hesitated for a moment when he fired the fourth shot."

Why would he hesitate at this moment? I think the second shot is a completely different situation.

"It's not a matter of probability."

"It was Wei Xinjian who had the idea of ​​committing suicide."

Everyone was somewhat surprised: "Trying to die?"

Cao Haichuan nodded: "That's right, because at this moment, the iron block mechanism had already squeezed inward once. "With a fractured skull and increased intracranial pressure, Wei Xinjian was actually in extreme pain."

"The pain from being crushed by the iron block exceeds one-third of the threat of being shot, and he may have thoughts of wanting to die in order to end this pain as soon as possible."

"And here's the most interesting part:"
"If he had actually done that, he wouldn't have died."

"But this is clearly not what the game designers wanted to see."

Everyone suddenly realized.

In that intense pain, if Wei Xinjian had impulsively fired three shots at himself, wouldn't he have survived?
In that case, he survived not out of repentance or pity, but out of despair and irrationality in his desire to commit suicide.

This changed the nature of the trial.

Cao Haichuan paused briefly, then continued, "So, the game designers deliberately inserted a hint here to rekindle his will to survive."

"This ensured the accuracy of this 'trial'."

"Wei Xinjian originally needed to gamble two bullets to find the location of the live bullet, but now he only needs to gamble one. In other words, the iron block will move inward at most one more time."

At this point, he actually had two choices:

“一是直接打自己，有1/3的概率会死亡；二是打无辜者，有2/3的概率铁块会向内再移动1.29cm。

"A 1.29cm squeeze will be very painful, but it won't kill you immediately."

"With the fifth and sixth bullets already determined, the second option clearly has a higher survival rate."

Cai Zhiyuan fully understood, he added:

"So after his will to survive was rekindled, he ultimately chose to shoot innocent people."

"But the game designers set a trap here."

"There was no live ammunition in the gun, which means that Wei Xinjian completely misjudged the last shot: even without live ammunition, the iron block mechanism would still continue to move."

"Wei Xinjian thought he could use the last shot to kill the innocent and escape, but in reality, he was announcing his own death."

Everyone present fell silent; they needed time to process this information.

Li Renshu felt a chill run down her spine: "So, this game is actually interconnected. From the moment Wei Xinjian decided to shoot the innocent with his first shot, he had already embarked on a path of no return."

"His decision to kill an innocent person with his last shot in order to save his own life became a death ultimatum."

"This is a highly selective game."

"A rational person, a selfless person, or a compassionate person—any one of these traits has a very high survival rate."

That's why it's called the "Roulette of Salvation".

"It may seem like a roulette game of chance, but in reality, it is a test, a trial."

"If Wei Xinjian could change his mindset in this desperate situation and cherish the lives of the innocent, even if it meant shooting himself, he could survive and his soul could be redeemed."

"But unfortunately... he never repented until his death."

A long silence fell over everyone again.

Clearly, after their brains worked at high speed, both physical and mental fatigue began to emerge.

At the same time, death in the game makes them feel a severe lack of security.

The combination of these two factors caused most people to lose the desire to continue speaking.

Fu Chen keenly realized this: "Then let's call it a day. I think everyone can go and rest now."

"Although I don't know exactly what the 'New World' is, I've always been a person who takes things as they come, and I hope everyone else is too."

"No matter what, we are in the same community, with different professions and identities. We can complement each other in our division of labor, and we can get through any problems together."

Everyone got up and returned to their own rooms.

(End of this chapter)