Starting with the smashing of Dunkirk

Chapter 106 Eastern Front Strategy
Two flowers bloom, one branch each.

No one within Demania has yet been able to find out exactly how many benefits the Bretonnias offered or how they won over the smaller countries of Southeast Europe.

By mid-April, the Demanians only knew a general, superficial result: the Italians had declared war on Oreo, but in the initial days following the declaration, there was no substantial action. They also heard that some Italians had gone to seize control of Malta, and that the two sides had likely argued about it.

This information was not difficult to obtain, because the Italians directly publicized it in their own newspapers, talking about the benefits of declaring war on Austria and how the kingdom had already acquired Malta.

Field Marshal Rupprecht, commander of the southernmost reinforcements on the Eastern Front and commander of the German 6th Army, saw this newspaper article on April 17.

At that time, Lelouch had just been recalled from Berlin to Munich to join the troops marching east to Budapest.

Because of the Marshal's high regard for him, Lelouch was naturally summoned to the Marshal's side to advise him on military matters as soon as he arrived in Munich. His daily meals and lodging were also taken care of by the Marshal's royal attendants.

The marshal saw the newspaper while eating breakfast that day and casually asked Lelouch, who was eating with him:
"What do you think of this? Why are the Italians announcing in the newspapers that they've taken over Malta from their ally before even launching a formal attack? If I were Balfour, seeing this kind of behavior from the Italians would definitely make me want to slap them twice—"

Doesn't this make the Bretanians appear to be ceding territory and selling out their country? They nominally gained an ally, but in reality, this ally hasn't done anything yet and has already taken away their own land. Do you think the Bretanians are secretly negotiating with Italy at this moment?

Without a second thought, Lelouch put down his knife and fork and answered the simple question: "This is easy to understand. It's because the Italian people are divided and demoralized, and no one really wants to participate in the war. Therefore, the kingdom's leadership needs to show the people some incentives first."

Normally, to save face for their allies, a country's diplomatic strategy would be to secretly take over Malta and quietly profit from it. But the Italians couldn't do that. They had to pretend to be innocent after gaining an advantage, repeatedly emphasizing to their people that they had benefited, in order to barely arouse their people's willingness to participate in the war.

This shows that this country is not worth worrying about at all. The fact that its people and soldiers think this way means they are destined to only fight when the tide is against them; once the situation turns against them, they will collapse faster than anyone else.

The Duke chewed and swallowed a mouthful of cheesy mashed potatoes, then slurped up his throat with milk, and nodded silently: "That makes sense. So, how much direct impact do you think Italy's declaration of war will have on the war on the Eastern Front? What should our next move be?"
Should they proceed as planned and first go to Budapest to assist Austria in holding the line? Or should they change their plans and directly block the advance, holding off the Luza army along the Carpathian mountain defense line, or even relieve the siege of the Przemyhil fortress, which has been besieged for half a year?

(Note: The "Przemeshir" fortress was originally named "Peremeschli" fortress in 1915, which is also what I wrote in the previous text. However, some readers have reported that they cannot find this place name on Google Maps, so I will rewrite it as "Przemeshir" from now on.)

"Peremyshli" is a transliteration of a Russian place name, but after World War I, this territory became Polish territory. Therefore, the "Peremyshli" listed online is a transliteration of the Polish place name. (For subsequent place names that were originally Russian but are now Polish, I will use the Polish version for the convenience of readers who wish to verify the information on Google Maps.)
The Duke's question might seem perplexing to those unfamiliar with the details of the battlefield. However, those familiar with the current geographical landscape of the Eastern Front will easily understand it.

Before the outbreak of World War II, a large area of ​​land north of the Carpathian Mountains, between Lviv and Krakow, in the southern section of the Eastern Front belonged to Austria (Krakow is now part of Poland, and Lviv is now part of Jukkaland).

However, within three months of the start of the war, that is, throughout the autumn of 1914, the Austrian army was too weak, and the land north of the Carpathians was completely captured by the Russa army, and major cities such as Lviv changed hands.

In the far west, the Russo army fought all the way to Krakow before being stopped by the Austrian army, which had received reinforcements from the Demanians. The two sides clashed in the Battle of Krakow in October and November 1914, and the Russo army was defeated.

After entering December, the Luftwaffe abandoned its westward advance and instead focused on heading south and crossing the mountains. Its aim was to cross the Carpathian Mountains from the Dukla Pass east of the Przymeşil Fortress, eventually entering the Hungarian Basin and capturing Budapest.

From then on, the only stronghold that Austria held in the entire region north of the Carpathians and east of Krakow was the Przemyshir Fortress, which was defended by 17 men before the war, and after six months of fighting, only 13 remained.

This fortress was situated on the railway between Lviv and Krakow, preventing the Russa army from receiving supplies by train, whether it continued eastward or southward. Therefore, even though the Russa army had previously sent troops over the mountains, they dared not commit too many, fearing shortages of ammunition and food, and thus achieved no substantial results.

(Note: "Dukela Pass" cannot be found on the Valley/Dollar map. It is located on the Carpathian ridge north of "Svidnik", as shown in the picture below. It is 506 meters above sea level and is the current Persian/Swedish border.)
Historically, the Przemeshir Fortress actually only held out until March 22, 1915, before falling. The 130,000 Austrian troops inside the fortress held out for nearly six months, but eventually succumbed to too many injuries and illnesses, and an outbreak of plague. Unable to withstand the pressure, they surrendered to the besieging Luza army.

Of course, even if Lelouch was a military enthusiast in his previous life, he couldn't possibly remember the details so clearly. Besides, none of this has happened yet; the 13 Austrian troops inside the fortress are still holding out, having held out for more than 20 days longer than in previous years.

No one knows exactly how the butterfly effect happens or what the underlying principle is.

Perhaps this is related to the fact that the Allied forces had previously developed sulfonamide drugs, and the Demacian high command heard that the Allies' fortresses were suffering from too many wounded and sick soldiers and low morale due to continuous fighting, so they airdropped a batch of sulfonamide drugs by airship.

Historically, the Austrian army held this large fortress so tightly that they were not yet running out of food or ammunition. The main problem was that the soldiers were too wounded and sick from continuous fighting and could no longer hold on.

Sulfonamides, being high-value, low-weight, and low-volume supplies, are best suited for air transport. If the shortage were ammunition or food, relying on airdrops would be unsustainable. However, a single box of medicine could save hundreds of lives. After Lelouch invented airborne tactics, Demanian airship units simply attached parachutes to their medicine boxes, flew over the fortress, and dropped them—a relatively easy task.

The first-aid kit isn't afraid of being damaged by drops; just wrap it with several layers of foam padding.

With sulfonamides, the fortress garrison was able to save at least a third of its infected wounded soldiers, which greatly boosted morale. It's no wonder they held out for an extra 20 days without falling. Lelouch simply didn't know the underlying reasons.

……

The Duke sought advice from Lelouch under these circumstances, wanting to know how the Demacian army should respond when the Przemehill fortress was in such dire straits.

Should we push forward and launch a direct assault on the north side of the mountain to relieve the siege of the fortress?

Lelouch's answer, of course, had to be very careful.

Although he couldn't recall the exact turning point of the Carpathian Campaign, he had played several World War I scenarios before his time travel and was quite familiar with the major historical events.

He knew that at the end of the Carpathian Campaign, the Lusa army was overwhelmed by the fall of the Przemehir fortress, which made them feel invincible.

Originally, only a small portion of the 3rd Army, which was heading south over the mountains, was instead moved south as a whole army to launch a strong attack on Budapest. Most of the 16 divisions that were originally besieging the fortress were also detached to follow the 3rd Army south.

However, after Demania heard about the great defeat of Austria by Russa, they quickly mobilized reinforcements to aid Austria (historically, it was Mackensen's 11th Army that was urgently transferred). Then, the German army launched a counter-offensive against Przemysil from the Krakow direction along the railway, through Gorlice, and recaptured the fortress, which is known as the "Gorlice Breakthrough Battle".

Then, the Russo 3rd Army, which had already crossed the Carpathian Mountains and moved south, along with some auxiliary units, was ultimately cut off by the Germans and annihilated south of the mountains. The Russo army's gains accumulated over the previous six months against Austria vanished overnight, and they even lost some of their resources.

That's exactly the situation right now. Even if Lelouch didn't know the specific battle history, and was asked to use his own judgment to devise a plan, he would still feel that he shouldn't immediately save the Przemyhil Fortress.

Because as long as the fortress is not lost, the Lusha Army will not get carried away and will not easily allow a large army group to cross the mountains and head south.

As long as the main force of the French army does not cross the mountains to the south, it will not leave a huge gap on the north side of the mountains, allowing the Demanian army, which is also coming from the Krakow direction on the east side of the mountains, to cut off its rear and annihilate it.

To lure the enemy over the mountains and into an encirclement, this thorn in their side's rear seemed to have no choice but to be sacrificed. Moreover, in the past six months, the Austrian army had not failed to attempt to rescue the Przemeshir fortress; the Austrian commander-in-chief had organized at least five rescue attempts. However, because the situation was Austrian on the offensive and Portuguese on the defensive, the Portuguese army could rely on its well-established fortifications to force the Austrians to attack their lines, then use heavy artillery to inflict massive casualties on the Austrians.

Everyone knows that during World War I, whoever attacked would suffer a loss. The German army besieged the city without attacking, and attacked the reinforcements. When the Austrian army went to the rescue, the rescue force was definitely at a great tactical disadvantage.

In the six-month-long tug-of-war, the Austrian army suffered more than 400,000 casualties, while the Lussa army also suffered nearly 200,000 casualties. The 130,000 Austrian soldiers trapped in the fortress still could not be rescued. The number of Austrian soldiers who died trying to rescue these 130,000 was more than three times the original number.

Having considered so much information, Lelouch's final strategic advice becomes quite obvious:

"Your Excellency Marshal, I believe that given the terrain of the Carpathian Mountains, the side that attacks by crossing the mountains is at a great disadvantage. One of the most important reasons why the Austrian army lost as many as 40 men throughout the past winter and early spring was that they wanted to cross the mountains to the north to rescue the 13 men in the fortress."

With the Austrian army forced to cross the mountains, the Darth Vassal army could wait in comfort, deploying heavy artillery at their leisure to defend the besieged camps. Meanwhile, the Austrian army, having to cross the mountains, struggled to bring even heavy artillery to the front lines in time, which led to the Darth Vassal army inflicting an exchange ratio of more than twice that of the Austrian army.

To turn the tide of the entire campaign, we cannot be concerned with the gains or losses of a single city or place. The best course of action at present is to abandon the Przemeshir Fortress, make a major and comprehensive retreat to the south of the Carpathian Mountains, let the Lusha army cross the mountains and move south, and then we will block them from the south of the mountains, forcing the enemy to fight this bitter battle that requires them to cross the mountains.

Moreover, as more and more enemy troops advance south, our friendly forces remaining on the northern flank towards Krakow may launch a decisive breakthrough and surprise attack, then recapture the fortress, leaving the enemy troops who have already crossed the mountain trapped.

The marshal stroked his beard, pondering for a long time, still somewhat reluctant: "I understand the reasons you've given, but making such a decision won't be easy. You're right to say we shouldn't be concerned about the gains or losses of a single city or territory. But if we were to give up now, it wouldn't just be the city and territory, but also the 13 elite troops within it!"
Austria doesn't have many elite troops, so for these 13 men to fight to the death for half a year while surrounded is a testament to their exceptionally high morale. I heard they are mainly Demanean soldiers, with some Magyars (Hungarians) and Bohemians (Czechs) as well—in short, soldiers from Austria's three main ethnic groups, known for their strong national cohesion.

In contrast, many of the troops lost in the previous rescue missions were of low combat effectiveness, consisting of soldiers from peripheral, uncoordinated ethnic groups, which is why they crumbled at the first sign of trouble. Getting Austria to abandon its core elite force of 13 men is no easy feat.

Austria's population and army are still quite large, but their combat strength is low, mainly due to the complexity of its internal ethnic issues. The vast majority of its population has absolutely no loyalty to the empire. There have even been cases where "Dmanian officers, while leading soldiers of other races into battle, were shot in the back and killed by their own soldiers before defecting to the enemy."

Therefore, for Austria, 13 Demanian, Magyar, and Bohemian soldiers are indeed more valuable than 40 soldiers from other ethnic groups.

Faced with the Duke's concerns, Lelouch had no choice but to think of some ways to remedy the situation.

After much deliberation, he finally offered a suggestion to the Duke in a consultative tone:

"If we are only worried about the loss of these 13 people, we can think of a way to plan: when the Lusa army succeeds and becomes complacent and moves south from the Dukla Pass, can we quickly launch a rapid attack from the Krakow direction and cut off the enemy's retreat again?"

The Lusha army has been fighting in this area for half a year, and the logistical pressure is enormous. Even if they capture the fortress, they will not have enough transport capacity to immediately transport so many prisoners of war back to the rear.

Moreover, they would certainly need a lot of labor to improve the road conditions from the fortress to the Dukla Pass. Many treacherous sections of the road could not even be crossed by mules or carts, and human ferries would also be needed.

Therefore, when the fortress had just fallen, I didn't think we needed to worry too much about the issue of 'prisoners of war being transported back to the rear of Lusa'. They would most likely be left in the war zone to do hard labor for a while.

In particular, the Austrians said that there was no shortage of food in the fortress, and even if it fell, the Dzungar army would not withdraw prisoners to reduce food consumption due to food shortages.

Therefore, as long as we launch a quick counterattack, it is possible to rescue these 13 prisoners!

The truth becomes clearer through debate. After repeated brainstorming sessions and being "interrogated" by the Marshal, Lelouch has roughly come up with a better plan than that of the same period in history.

In Earth's history, this battle was ultimately a case of "defeat first, victory later," but the counterattack came too slowly. The fortress fell on March 22, and Mackensen only achieved a breakthrough in the counterattack on May 3.

The Lusa army was given a 42-day time gap, which is a full 6 weeks. Most of the 13 prisoners were transported back to the Lusa rear prisoner-of-war camps and did hard labor for 3 years.

Of these 13 people, about one-third were Bohemians, who later became the famous "Czech Legion," which was converted from Bohemian prisoners of war by the Luza Empire.

But in this current dimension, Lelouch can accelerate this process! They didn't just "rush to reinforce Austria after hearing that Austria had collapsed." They were already prepared, so why would they need 42 days to launch a counterattack?

What if they launched a counterattack 14 days after the fortress fell? Then the 13 people certainly wouldn't have been evacuated by then.

Going any faster wouldn't be good either. If the counterattack starts in seven days, the Russo army might not even have time to make its way across. If the Russo 3rd Army hasn't moved south and crossed the mountains yet, the resistance to the counterattack will increase significantly, and even if the counterattack succeeds, it won't be able to encircle the enemy, and the results will be much smaller.

The counter-offensive can only begin after the 3rd Army of the Russian Federation moves south.

This requires maintaining secrecy and silence—historically, the process of Mackensen leading the German 11th Army to Krakow was done very secretly. Until the attack, the Russo people did not know that Mackensen had arrived, which is why they dared to let the Russo cross the mountains and head south.

Otherwise, if even the slightest clue were to be revealed, the commander of the Lu army would know that a formidable person had come next door and would be ready to kick down the door. Even if he had ten times the courage, he wouldn't dare to cross the mountain.

……

"Therefore, this is my opinion: we cannot be concerned about the gains or losses of a single city or place; we should abandon the fortress if necessary."

All we can do is secretly build up our strength in advance, prepare for a counterattack, shorten the time gap between losing the fortress and launching a counterattack, and minimize our absolute losses.

At the same time, the key to the success of the counter-offensive preparations is secrecy; the enemy must not know the direction of our army's deployment in advance.

To maintain secrecy, we can even deceive our Austrian allies! We don't need to tell them we're 'refusing to help,' we can just say: our army wants to help but can't, the troops are exhausted and lack equipment and ammunition.

Only by deceiving even our own people can we deceive the enemy. We can even have our allies on the western front launch new offensives before the formal counter-offensive, and use the banner of our 6th Army during these attacks to lull the enemy into a false sense of security, making them believe we are still on the western front. We can feign weakness while maintaining a facade of strength..."

Duke Rupprecht's eyes widened as he listened, and although he wanted to refute, he ultimately held back.

He's back, everything's back... After two months of rest, the Duke originally thought that Lelouch had become more pragmatic after worrying so much about military preparations and making money.

Unexpectedly, just as he refocused his attention on the battlefield, that cunning and ruthless strategic mind that chilled the enemy returned.

(End of this chapter)