Persian Empire 1845

Chapter 399 The worst plan
Naserdin and Murad listened together to the Vienna negotiations, which had reached a stalemate. Neither side was willing to concede.

"Shah, Russia has pledged to support 20 troops. Furthermore, Prussia's stance remains unclear..."

"Prussia is out of the question; Chancellor Bismarck is very shrewd. He will definitely approach Britain privately to secure their support for Prussia's war against Austria."

Bismarck's intentions have long been thoroughly analyzed by later generations. With his exceptional diplomatic skills, he would certainly use this incident to isolate Austria. Then, he would stab Austria in the back.

"Father, are we going to war with Britain?" Murad asked worriedly from the side. In his mind, Britain was a country that could stir up trouble in Europe. Its navy and commerce were very powerful, and Iran was probably no match for it.

"There won't be a fight. They'll definitely try to stall. As long as we can hold out, we'll be the final victors."

Nasser al-Din was essentially gambling, betting that the British wouldn't fight them. Foreign wars require extensive preparation; plans, supplies, and other aspects all need discussion, but the most crucial element is funding.

From the 800s onward, Britain's foreign war costs skyrocketed. Two wars in the Far East cost over £8000 million, the Crimean War £4000 million, and the suppression of the Indian Rebellion £40 million. Not to mention other smaller unrest, Britain's national debt surged to £8.3 million, placing a significant strain on its finances.

Therefore, if the British wanted to attack Iran, they would need to prepare at least £1000 million, which is financially unfeasible for them. Moreover, the financial expenditure would increase over time.

“Shah, we have captured the central region of Sumatra and are currently heading south. In addition, our merchant ships have been forced to take alternative routes, which has had a significant impact on us.”

The effects of the crisis began to emerge, forcing merchant ships between the Far East and Iran to conduct trade via the eastern islands for security reasons. Over time, this increased costs, which was detrimental to Iran's foreign trade.

"Now is the time to test endurance. What is Ottoman's reaction?"

“The Ottoman people protested, but the Sultan did nothing and even ordered the people to be driven away.”

As expected, Naserdin thought for a moment and then issued an order.

"Get Georgia, Trabison, Muscat, and Cinnestan ready. Cancel all leave for the soldiers and put them on standby at any time."

Nasserdin had to consider the worst-case scenario: if war broke out, all his hard work would be for naught. Whatever the outcome, he had to protect Iran and everything he owned.

However, current news presents both good and bad news. The bad news is that the British warships HMS Calcutta, HMS Conqueror, and HMS Resistance are already near the Persian Gulf. HMS Conqueror boasts 101 cannons and is powered by both sails and steam. HMS Resistance is a completed British ironclad warship, powered by steam, tasked with deterrence.

They came to the Persian Gulf together to intimidate Iran and force it to submit. But so far, Iran shows no signs of backing down. However, their navy is afraid; two Iranian warships, upon seeing them, immediately retreated into Muscat harbor and refused to come out. Their deterrent power is still considerable.

The captain of the Conqueror decided to venture deeper into Muscat, hoping that if the enemy opened fire, he would have a reason to go to war with Iran. The warship had already spotted the port of Muscat and expected to see the enemy flee, but what came into view was a dense array of gun emplacements and cannons.

Iran's naval resources are limited, and it needs to prepare for potential British repercussions, resulting in a combat capability inferior to that of the British. Therefore, Iran has focused most of its resources on coastal defense and its green-water navy, with a particular emphasis on coastal defense.

In Muscat, for example, Iran has built three fortresses there using imported Portland cement, a material whose hardness after solidification rivals that of natural stone. This cement has been extensively used in fortifications and infrastructure construction. The fortresses are equipped with 68-pound rifled cannons with a range of 3000 to 4000 meters, capable of penetrating the defenses of warships. However, Iran will not act until the very last moment.

The good news is that the Dutch have clearly softened their stance, and Prime Minister Tolbe has begun contacting Austria and Iran. The reason is simple: the Netherlands is on the verge of collapse.

Unlike Britain, the Netherlands' finances were more fragile and stable. However, it was also more reliant on its colonies; one-third of its 1.2 million guilders in revenue came from the Dutch East Indies; moreover, 80% of its 500 million guilders trade surplus came from Batavia.

Although the Dutch textile and shipbuilding industries began to develop, they lagged behind other European countries. Cheap industrial goods from Britain and Belgium impacted Dutch domestic industries, limiting tariff revenue. Therefore, the Netherlands remained quite important for its colonies.

Prime Minister Torbe has been informed that launching a war would increase the national debt by 1.5 million guilders, adding a heavy burden to the existing 12 billion guilders national debt. The Dutch government absolutely cannot afford this.

Abdullah has already handed over the conditions to Iran: to purchase Sumatra for 1350 million rials, along with loans and investments for the Netherlands, and Iran will also cover the costs of the Dutch emancipation of slaves in Sumatra. This is quite a favorable deal for the Netherlands.

"Although Britain is having some headaches, once we deal with the Netherlands, it will be a one-on-one confrontation between us and Britain. A standoff like a duel."

Amir agrees, but currently Iran's foreign policy is largely borne by the royal family. It's because the government's finances are weak.

"Are exports to the UK facing some difficulties?"

Amir nodded. The price of kerosene exported to Britain had plummeted, so they switched to importing kerosene produced by Westminster, which was practically a left-hand-to-right-hand trick.

Although Britain is a powerful commercial nation, without the United States, Iran would be the primary producer of kerosene. Britain is reliant on kerosene; the adoption rate of kerosene lamps has risen from 4% in 56 to 38% today, and the annual export share of kerosene is substantial.

The demand wasn't limited to Britain; France, Austria, Prussia, Spain, Russia, and other countries also had a greater need. Furthermore, with the adoption of flat wicks in kerosene lamps to improve safety, kerosene gradually replaced whale oil as the new fuel for lighting.

Following the end of the war in the United States, the Iranian oil company's revenue surged. Profits turned over to the government are projected to exceed 4500 million rials this year, and government revenue has begun to rely on oil more than that from salt, tobacco, and other sources.

"In the end, they will still seek our help and tell Abdullah that the Netherlands must be made to withdraw from the negotiations first. Once that happens, everything will be simple."

(End of this chapter)