The Fierce Teacher of Zhenguan: Starting with Teaching the Crown Prince to Make a Comeback

Chapter 11 Game Theory

“This knowledge originates from the ancient principle of weighing options, which I will tentatively call ‘game theory’,” Li Yichen said.

“Game theory?” Li Chengqian repeated the unfamiliar term, looking puzzled.

"Game theory...is it a matter of playing chess? What does this have to do with court intrigue?"

"Your Highness is wise; this is precisely the conclusion drawn from this." Li Yichen nodded.

"Your Highness can think of it as all those involved in the struggle being like chess players. Every move they make requires consideration of how their opponent might respond and what consequences that response will trigger. The goal is not necessarily to eliminate the opponent, but to find the most advantageous position for themselves in this complex interaction."

Li Chengqian seemed to understand but not quite: "It sounds like...somewhat reasonable, but rather vague."

"Please provide examples to illustrate this," Li Yichen said.

"Please imagine the simplest scenario, Your Highness. Suppose there are two accomplices, detained and interrogated separately by the authorities, unable to communicate with each other. If the authorities lack sufficient evidence and both plead not guilty, they can only be punished for minor offenses, each sentenced to one year in prison."

Li Chengqian nodded: "Yes, if they can be of one mind, the ending for the two of them will be the best."

“However, the government made separate statements to the two men,” Li Yichen continued. “If one man confesses and testifies against the other, while the other man does not confess, the man who confesses will be released immediately, and the man who does not confess will be sentenced to ten years. If both men confess and testify against the other, then the evidence is conclusive, and both men will be sentenced to eight years.”

After Li Yichen finished speaking, he looked at Li Chengqian.

"Your Highness, please consider this: if you were one of the prisoners, what would you choose? And what do you think your comrades would choose?"

Li Chengqian frowned and fell into deep thought.

The candlelight illuminated his profile, making him appear exceptionally focused.

“If I trust him, he will naturally not confess. I hope he will also not confess, so that both of them will only be sentenced to one year, which would be best,” Li Chengqian said slowly.

“But you can’t trust him,” Li Yichen interrupted calmly.

"You are being held separately, and you don't know if he will betray you. If you do not confess, but he does, you will serve ten years in prison alone, while he will be released. The reverse is also true."

Li Chengqian's breathing paused slightly.

“If…if I choose to plead guilty…” he hesitated, “If he doesn’t plead guilty, I will be released, which would be good. But if he also pleads guilty…then we will both have to serve eight years in prison, which is much worse than neither of us pleading guilty!”

“That’s exactly right.” Li Yichen’s eyes were piercing.

"Your Highness, please set aside personal feelings and consider only the consequences. What would you choose?"

Li Chengqian's forehead was slightly sweaty.

He found himself in a dilemma.

Trusting the other party may lead to the worst possible outcome.

Distrusting the other party and actively betraying them might yield the best outcome, but it could also lead to worse results.

"I...I don't know..." Li Chengqian felt a surge of frustration. "It seems that no matter what we choose, there's no perfect solution!"

"Your Highness, please reconsider," Li Yichen prompted. "If you were his accomplice, how would you guess his choice?"

Li Chengqian was stunned and tried to put himself in her shoes.

“He…he must also be afraid that I will betray him…If he suspects that I will confess, he will definitely choose to confess in order to protect himself! In that case, at least eight years will be sentenced, which is better than ten years of solitary confinement.”

Li Chengqian's thoughts gradually became clearer, and his speech quickened, "On the contrary, if he suspects that I will not confess, he is more likely to choose to confess and testify against me in order to get the chance of release!"

Li Yichen pressed further: "So, regardless of what he thinks, is it always more advantageous for him to choose to plead guilty? At the very least, the worst that can happen is eight years, and if he's lucky, he might even be released?"

Li Chengqian looked up abruptly as if struck by lightning, his pupils contracting.

"Yes...that's how it is!" His voice trembled with disbelief. "No matter what I choose, for him, confessing is always more advantageous than not confessing! Conversely...the same is true for me! Confessing means a worst-case scenario of eight years, possibly with release; not confessing means a best-case scenario of one year, possibly ten years!"

Li Yichen nodded heavily.

"Therefore, in this game, for each prisoner, no matter what the other party chooses, it is always more advantageous to choose to plead guilty than to choose not to plead guilty! This is the 'advantageous strategy'."

“Advantageous strategy…” Li Chengqian murmured to himself, repeatedly pondering these four words.

He felt a cold, logical force that ruthlessly stripped away the veneer of friendship and promises, pointing directly to the core calculations of self-interest.

“So…” Li Chengqian’s voice was hoarse.

"So in the end, they both chose to plead guilty and be sentenced to eight years each? There was clearly a better outcome where neither of them pleaded guilty and they were each sentenced to one year, but because of mutual distrust and fear of being betrayed by the other, they chose the worse result?"

"Your Highness is wise, that is indeed the case," Li Yichen affirmed.

"This is the 'Prisoner's Dilemma.' It reveals that in a situation lacking trust and effective constraints, rational choices by individuals often lead to collective irrationality. Everyone seeks to protect themselves, but ends up collectively falling into a worse situation."

Li Chengqian sat there motionless, his face slightly pale.

He felt a tingling sensation on his scalp, as if countless tiny electric currents were running through him.

This example is too simple, too straightforward, yet too profound, and too terrifying!

It perfectly encapsulates his vague understanding of human nature and power struggles deep within his heart!
In the imperial court, factions formed for personal gain, and inflicted mutual strife. How many alliances broke down due to suspicion, and how many agreements were voided due to selfishness? Isn't this a case of being trapped in a "prisoner's dilemma"?

"This...this is game theory?" Li Chengqian's voice was filled with awe.

“This is just one example, the tip of the iceberg,” Li Yichen said.

"The game is ever-changing. It may involve multiple rounds rather than a single game, at which point trust and cooperation may emerge; or there may be multiple participants, making the situation more complex; or there may be a distinction between strong and weak players, requiring different strategies."

Li Yichen paused briefly to allow the Crown Prince a moment to process the information before steering the conversation toward more relevant realities.

"Your Highness, please try to apply this principle to your own situation."

Li Chengqian's expression hardened, and he sat up even straighter.

"My own strategy?"

"Your Highness and the Prince of Wei can, to some extent, be seen as a game of strategy," Li Yichen said calmly, but his words carried the weight of a hammer.

"His Majesty's reign is that of the 'government,' holding the power of final judgment. You and the Prince of Wei both desire His Majesty's final approval."

"If you two both keep to your duties and do not attack each other, then the Tang Dynasty will be stable, and His Majesty can observe the situation at his leisure. This would be the best outcome for both the country and the family."

Li Chengqian nodded: "This is the best strategy, and I also aspire to it. However, Qingque..."

“However,” Li Yichen interrupted him, his tone icy.

"Will the Prince of Wei remain in his proper place? Your Highness, will you completely trust that the Prince of Wei does not covet your throne?"

Li Chengqian fell silent, his face grim.

The answer is obviously no.

"This is the dilemma," Li Yichen said. "If Your Highness adheres to your duty as Crown Prince and does not actively attack Prince Wei, while Prince Wei secretly plots to constantly slander Your Highness and curry favor with His Majesty, what will be the consequences if His Majesty becomes increasingly dissatisfied with Your Highness and increasingly favors Prince Wei?"

Li Chengqian clenched his fist: "I...I am afraid my position is in jeopardy!"

(End of this chapter)