Glamor Economics

Chapter 153

Chapter 19 Section 8 Why Home Appliances Going to the Countryside Can Stimulate the Economy——Retail Index

During the Spring Festival of 2009, the Economic Channel of CCTV, together with the National Bureau of Statistics and China Post Group Corporation, carried out the "CCTV 2008 Economic Life Survey" nationwide.The consumption choices of rural respondents are: computers, cars, refrigerators, motorcycles, color TVs, travel, mobile phones, air conditioners, and washing machines.It can be seen that rural residents have a strong demand for home appliances.Preliminary calculations show that by 2010, the overcapacity of color TVs, refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioners, and mobile phones can be basically eliminated, and more than 20% of export capacity can be transferred, which can reduce the surplus by 100 billion yuan per year. The annual increase in consumption is nearly 1000 billion yuan.

In 2009, the per capita net income of Chinese rural residents was 4761 yuan, and this income level seems to imply the possibility of releasing consumption demand, which is equivalent to the income level of urban residents in the late 20s, when home appliances were rapidly popularized .Under the situation of blocked exports and economic downturn, the rural market with a population of more than 90 million is unprecedentedly attractive. From February 8, 2009, the campaign of sending home appliances to the countryside began to be promoted across the country. "This is the first direct subsidy for farmers in the field of consumption after the state implemented direct subsidies for grain and comprehensive direct subsidies for agricultural materials to farmers." Liu Haiquan, director of the General Affairs Department of the Ministry of Commerce, said.

In 2009, the government invested 200 billion yuan to subsidize home appliances to the countryside, which is expected to stimulate more than 1500 billion yuan of rural consumption.The more ambitious long-term plan is to sell 6 million units (pieces) of home appliances nationwide in the next four years, stimulating domestic consumption by about 16000 trillion yuan.The vast number of farmers is an important force to stimulate domestic demand.According to the statistical data in 2007, excluding the expenditure on food, the pure consumption expenditure of Chinese urban residents and rural residents accounted for about 45% of their per capita income, but the per capita income of rural residents was only three times that of urban residents. one-third.This shows that farmers' willingness to consume is not weak, but low income limits their consumption capacity.

Consumption is an important index to measure the living standard of residents, and it is also an important force to promote the development of the national economy.This involves a statistical indicator of economics, namely the retail index.The retail index is an indicator including cash purchases and credit purchases, which reflects social consumption and overall economic activity.A higher retail index indicates sufficient social consumption, great potential for economic development, rising interest rates, and a rising dollar exchange rate.The retail sales index is often stimulated by factors such as job growth, rising exports, changes in the external environment and the general public's satisfaction with interest rates.For example, "SARS" (SARS) in 2003 had a great impact on the retail industry of my country's tourism, service industry and other tertiary industries.We can understand the overall consumption situation of the society through the retail index released by the media.Generally speaking, holidays are good days for businesses, and the continuous flow of consumers in large shopping malls and supermarkets is the best witness of the rising retail index.Looking at the distribution of the retail index in Shanghai in 2002, we can feel that the rise and fall of the retail index is closely related to our life and consumption.

From January 2002th to 1th, 13, as the Spring Festival approached, the business of the consumer goods market became more and more prosperous. Citizens lingered in shopping malls and supermarkets in order to buy New Year's goods. From the 19th to the 13th, the consumer goods retail index continued to rise. The index on Saturday and Sunday exceeded 19 points, and the index on Sunday became the second highest point since November 200 (the highest on New Year's Day).The weekly average consumer goods retail index rose by 2001% compared with last week. Coupled with the fine weather on weekends, the retail index on weekends this week was 11% higher than last week's weekend index.

In addition, the retail index can also reflect changes in residents' consumption habits.Generally speaking, if the retail index of a certain commodity rises all the way, it means that the commodity is hot. On the contrary, if the retail index drops, it means that the product is not in short supply.We can judge changes in consumers' consumption habits through consumers' preferences for products.

The retail index mainly has the following characteristics:
1.highly influenced by consumption time

The retail index is greatly affected by holidays. Generally speaking, before and after festivals or during festivals are prime time for consumers and businesses.For example, the "May [-]st" and "October" Golden Week markets are during festivals, while the Spring Festival market is affected by traditional consumption habits such as purchasing new year's goods, and the climax of the market occurs before the festival, not during the festival.

2.Holiday consumption is stable

Generally, during the holiday season, the retail industry index will remain at a relatively high level.For example, during the "May [-]st" and "October" periods, the index peaked on the first day, and then fell day by day; last for a longer period of time.

3.Traditional consumption is active, and the index of supermarkets and hypermarkets is far ahead
Judging from the distribution of the retail index, we will find that the harvest of supermarkets and hypermarkets is often much higher than that of other formats.This is mainly because major supermarkets have launched promotional activities with various names and low prices, attracting a large number of traditional consumer groups who buy and produce new year's goods.

The figure below is an index chart of a holiday retail industry in a certain year. We can see the relationship between consumer spending and holidays.

[links to related words]

Total retail sales of social consumer goods refers to the total retail sales of consumer goods from various economic types of wholesale and retail trade, catering, manufacturing and other industries to urban and rural residents and social groups, and retail sales of farmers to non-agricultural residents.Including commodities sold to urban and rural residents for daily consumption (excluding houses) and commodities sold to government agencies, organizations, troops, schools, enterprises, institutions, and urban neighborhood committees and rural village committees purchased with public funds for non-production and non-productive purposes. Consumer goods used in business.

This indicator reflects the supply of consumer goods to residents and social groups through various commodity circulation channels to meet their daily needs. It is an important indicator for studying people's lives, purchasing power of social consumer goods, currency circulation and other issues.

Consumption level From a macro perspective, it refers to the quantity and quality of consumer goods (and labor services) enjoyed by residents of a country on average in a certain period of time, or the degree to which all consumers are satisfied with their material and cultural needs per capita.From a micro perspective, it refers to the quantity and quality of consumption objects obtained by a consumer and his family in a certain period, or the degree to which a consumer and his family's living consumption needs in a certain period are satisfied.

Consumption refers to the quantity of consumer goods actually consumed by consumers within a certain period of time.

Consumption scale refers to the quantity of material products and services actually consumed within a certain period of time (usually one year) in order to meet the needs of material and cultural life.

Consumption structure refers to different levels, different contents, and different forms of consumption expenditure in a country, including the proportion of consumption at each level in the total expenditure and the relationship between them.

(End of this chapter)