I turned into a loli and didn't want to be discovered, so I had to become an assassin.

As for why the Mohican man lost in the previous Russian wheel game, it is actually very simple, because his thinking is too one-way, so the probability he calculated is not entirely correct.

It seems that Luo Li did nothing, but in fact she actually gave the Mohican man a lot of psychological guidance.

The first is to show his extremely large dream power, but he does not use it, but uses a seemingly "yin and yang" dream game to finally make the two sides equal again.

First give the Mohican man a kind of contempt, and then "make it clever" to pull out a game that he has never seen before.

If he had seen this game, it meant that Luo Li could derive certain information from it, some information about the Holy City;

If he hasn't seen it, then he can use this "unseen game" to add his own virtual chips out of thin air.

After all, Luo Li is the game maker, plus voluntarily giving up the "advantage" of dream power in exchange for the "balance of power" of dream games, if on the surface this game is not good for Luo Li, then the Mohican man will feel that there is fraud in it.

Even if this does not make the Mohican man completely let down his guard, it is just a simple foil, and the psychological induction needs to be carried down step by step.

Then there is the formulation of the rules of the game, people always have an inexplicable fear and fear of unknown things, so this rule must not be too complicated, Luo Li wants to make it look simple on the surface.

Yes, on the surface, so this "simple" is just a film.

The game has four rounds in total, and it's simple, not only the rules are simple, in terms of results, in the first round, as well as the last round.

But the middle two rounds of the game are easy to fool if the other party does not turn the corner in their heads in time.

Because the middle two rounds of the game silently changed from pure "probability" to "conditional probability", and conditional probability is not exactly the same as ordinary probability calculation method.

It might be a little clearer to express it mathematically.

In simple terms, the simple probability representation is P (A), and the conditional probability is P(A|B）。

You see, these two are different.

If Luo Li wants to tilt the balance of victory completely in her favor, then she can completely avoid setting the fourth round.

Because whoever plays first, who will lose in the fourth round, and the other three rounds, theoretically, can be a draw.

In other words, if Luo Li and himself duel, then whoever starts first will definitely lose.

It's just a pity that the other party is not Luo Li.

This is precisely a trap set by Luo Li, in order to make the Mohican man mistakenly believe that the initiative is equal to the "right to decide first", but in fact, the initiative is "the right to know the transformation of probability".

In other words, the Mohican man has entered Luoli's thinking misunderstanding from the beginning, and this journey will go deeper and deeper with the end of the first game.

This is the first step trap.

The second trap is the unknown of the outcome of a single round, which is naturally a requirement that comes naturally after the end of the first round.

In order to hide the results of the second round, and in the eyes of the Mohican man, he will only feel that Luo Li is weak-hearted, wants to cheat, or simply seeks excitement, not to mention that the ending of the first round is really "not interesting".

As for the third step trap, this one is interspersed in the middle of all the steps.

In the truth mode, and in the case of Luo Li's first hand, whether or not the revolver is rotated, the result will be fixed.

But Luoli still chooses to turn every round, and this voice is actually very addictive for "outlaws" like Mohican men.

This factor may not be the deciding factor, but it does not prevent Luo Li from assisting her induction.

Coupled with the inquiry of the previous truth mode, the unconscious frown, and the slowdown of the loading speed, all of this is Luo Li's self-directed and self-acting, in order to make the Mohican man more convinced that he is right, and more convinced that his judgment in the first round is correct.

Even more deadly, with his algorithm, his first round was certainly right.

And people's reflective behavior actually has a more or less habit, that is, they like to start from scratch.

Just like reading a book and reviewing, people are likely to start turning from the first page, even if the first page is sometimes meaningless.

At this time, the role of the black box comes out, which attaches "unknown" to the results of the first round.

Therefore, as long as the Mohican man confirms from the beginning, then his next two and three rounds will carry one round of thought.

Then as long as he calculates the next two, three, and four rounds based on the algorithm of the first round, then the final answer is that the second and third rounds must be wrong, the fourth round is right, of course, the result of the four rounds is right, and the thinking is wrong.

The final result, which is naturally one draw, two losses, and one win, and this final score has been determined from the beginning in Luo Li's heart.

As for why he made mistakes in the second or third rounds, it was actually very simple.

The second round is two bullets side by side -

the Mohican man calculated that the probability is that in the case of turning, because there are four short positions, the probability of not being shot is 4/6; in the case of not turning, because one short position has been eliminated, there are three empty positions left, and the probability of not being shot is

3/6.

The probability of not being shot without turning is greater than that of not turning.

Sounds like the logic is right?

But it's not right.

The fact is that in the case of turning, since there are a total of four short positions, the probability of not being shot is still 4/6, and the Mohican man is no problem.

In the case of not turning, because the first shot is a short position, the total probability is actually 4 and not 6, and because the bullets are side by side, only one of these four possibilities will be hit, so the probability of not being hit in the end is actually 3/4.

Therefore, in fact, the final result is that the probability of not being shot in the case of no rotation is greater than that of the case of rotation.

This is the difference between simple probability and conditional probability.

That is, Mohican men should not rotate the revolver magazine.

The same is true of the third round, and the fourth round is actually the same, but in the truth mode, only absolute probability remains, so that the fourth round results look the same as the first round.

And you know, the truth model was first proposed by the Mohican man, so the "coincidence" of the first and fourth round of algorithms is naturally the "cause" buried by the Mohican man himself.

I just don't know if he is willing to accept this "fruit" of his.

Although Luo Li successfully won this dream game through a simple game method, it is important to know one thing, all human behaviors are actually more or less a partial reflection of the social environment, and all the behaviors of the Mohican man just now are easy for Luo Li to see a little clue.

A little bit about the holy city is not as united as he imagined, clues.