Tokyo, 1991: Starting as a bank clerk

Chapter 253 Systemic Risks and Choices [Please Subscribe]

On Thursday morning, the sun finally came out in Osaka.

It had been raining for five days straight, and Kiryu Yaya felt himself getting all wet.

Seeing the long-lost sunlight now, he felt as if he had been buried underground for a thousand years and was now seeing the sun again.

Everything is still fine at the bank.

But a few days later, Hiroki Furukawa called to tell Yaya Kiryu some good news.

The first batch of sample garments has been produced.

The sample garment pattern is basically based on the drawings, but there are a few details that he needs to personally confirm.

Kiryu Yaya greeted Yamada Masakazu and left work half an hour early.

It's not even six o'clock yet.

Kiryu Yaya walked out of the bank.

When I arrived in Higashi-Osaka by train, it was still daylight.

Kiryu Yaya walked into Miyazawa Fiber, where Furukawa Hiroki and Terada Accountant were already waiting.

Hiroki Furukawa stood beside the cutting table, with a row of sample garments hanging in front of him, spread out one by one on a hanger.

Hearing footsteps, he turned around, his face beaming with a warm smile: "Mr. Kiryu, you've arrived."

"You've worked hard these past few days."

Kiryu Yaya's gaze fell on the row of sample garments, and his steps involuntarily slowed down.

Six sample garments.

From left to right: Crew neck T-shirt (white), V-neck T-shirt (light gray), Henley collar T-shirt (navy blue), long-sleeved shirt (light blue), pullover sweatshirt (dark gray), casual pants (khaki).

Each piece was made according to the parameters in the drawings.

The fabric, pattern, stitching, and finishing of the collar and cuffs all correspond one-to-one with his drawings.

Kiryu Yaya didn't rush to speak.

He first stood in front of the cutting table, his gaze moving from the first piece to the next.

He paused slightly when he saw the third Henry collar T-shirt.

The Henley collar opening was about one centimeter shallower than indicated on the drawing, and the button position was also moved one button higher.

He first touched the fabric and stitching, then asked, "The henley collar opening is a bit shorter than in the pattern. Did the pattern maker adjust it?"

Hiroki Furukawa immediately replied, "Yes. The pattern maker tried it twice, and after making it according to the opening depth on the pattern, the neckline was a bit too bulky, so when worn, it would bulge around the shoulders and neck and wouldn't fit well."

"The pattern maker suggested pulling the placket up a bit and adjusting the button positions accordingly. After the alterations, I made a fitting, and it definitely fit better than before."

He paused, then added, "I've already recorded the changes to the pattern in the adjustment notes, which are on the back of the drawings."

Kiryu Yaya flipped open his clothes and, sure enough, saw a handwritten note explaining the adjustments.

He nodded and said, "Well done."

From design to production, there will inevitably be minor differences that need to be adjusted. It would be best if these issues could be addressed in the sample garment stage.

He then looked at the remaining sample garments, and there were basically no problems.

Hiroki Furukawa closed his notebook and then lowered his voice, saying, "After the pattern maker, Mr. Tanabe, finished the first batch today, he chatted with me for a while. He had a very high opinion of Mr. Kiryu's design."

Kiryu Yaya let out a soft "oh".

Hiroki Furukawa continued, "He said he has been a pattern maker for over 20 years and has handled design drafts for many brands. Most designers only have a superficial understanding of patterns and craftsmanship, and it takes several rounds of revisions to make a wearable garment."

"But when he made the first batch of samples, there were almost no parts that needed major revisions. He said that Mr. Kiryu's designs have a very solid sense of pattern making, with the shoulder slope angle, armhole curve, and placket depth all conforming to the actual human body proportions."

"If we didn't know who Mr. Kiryu was, we would really think you were a designer who had been immersed in this industry for many years!"

Kiryu Yaya smiled and said, "You flatter me. It's just a personal hobby."

Seeing that Hiroki Furukawa was about to continue flattering him, he quickly interrupted and took out a new folder from his briefcase.

"These are the blueprints for the second batch of sample garments, mainly women's wear."

"There are four styles in total: a crew neck short-sleeved T-shirt, a V-neck long-sleeved knit top, a skirt, and a long cardigan. They are all basic styles, but the designs have been slightly adjusted."

Hiroki Furukawa nodded, glanced at the blueprints, closed the folder, and looked at Yaya Kiryu: "I will arrange it as soon as possible, and the first batch of women's clothing samples can be produced as early as next week."

Kiryu Yaya stood in front of the cutting table for a while, looking at the sample garments again before turning to Furukawa Hiroki and saying, "Have the pattern maker review the second batch of women's clothing patterns. If there are any uncertainties, such as adjustments to the shoulder or waistline, you can make a blank garment for a try-on to confirm the pattern before using the final fabric."

Furukawa Hiroki wrote two lines in his palm, nodded and said, "Understood. I will have Mr. Tanabe prioritize confirming the pattern of the women's clothing. Before the first batch of women's clothing samples is produced next week, I will show you the blank blanks."

"Can."

Kiryu Yaya fastened the clasp on his briefcase: "Have you confirmed the quote from the fabric supplier?"

"Confirmed."

Hiroki Furukawa picked up a form from the worktable: "The preliminary quotes for cotton yarn and blended fabrics have been locked in. The other party said that if the order quantity exceeds two thousand pieces, the price can be negotiated again."

"it is good."

Kiryu Yaya nodded: "Let's collect the feedback on the first batch of sample garments first. We'll decide on the quantity for the first batch of production after the women's clothing prototype is confirmed."

o

The initial production run will certainly not be large, and it will be experimental.

At this scale, there's no need to go to Hong Kong to find a contract manufacturer; having local factories produce it is sufficient.

When it's time to move to mass production, then take the fully developed garments to a contract manufacturer.

Hiroki Furukawa responded and put the few pages of forms back into the folder.

Terada, the accountant, stood on the other side of the cutting table and didn't say much.

Just as Kiryu was about to leave, he took off his reading glasses and said, "Mr. Kiryu, I have reorganized the factory's accounts according to the new entity, and the details of the old entity's loans and accounts payable have also been listed separately. You can review them at your convenience."

Kiryu Yaya glanced at him: "Thank you for your hard work, Mr. Terada. There's no rush with the accounts; just proceed at your own pace."

Terada, the accountant, didn't say much, just nodded slightly and put his reading glasses back on.

Kiryu Yaya took two steps toward the door, then suddenly stopped, turning to look at Furukawa Hiroki: "By the way, has there been any news from the Kansai Fiber Industry Cooperative Association lately?"

Hiroki Furukawa's expression turned slightly serious, clearly having heard about the previous incident involving the Miyazawa Group and the Kansai Fiber Industry Cooperative Association: "Not for now. Shuhei Yasuda's people haven't come back, and I haven't heard of any unusual activity from the nearby member factories." However, he paused: "I asked Mr. Terada to inquire for me, and it seems that the group's internal cash flow has been a bit tight recently. Several small factories have had their payments for last month delayed by almost two weeks."

Kiryu Yaya's gaze shifted slightly: "Delay?"

This is no small matter; for this systemic risk group, it means that internal conflicts have begun to accumulate.

If this contradiction continues to accumulate, it will inevitably be triggered when land prices plummet in the second half of the year.

"Yes, I heard that the group's cash flow has a slight shortfall. They are prioritizing settlements with several large factories, while payments to smaller factories are being delayed."

"It's not serious yet, but if this trend continues, something bad will happen sooner or later."

Kiryu Yaya was silent for a few seconds, thinking of the list of group members that Terada had given him before, and then nodded slightly: "Understood. Continue to keep an eye on the group's movements. Don't inquire deliberately, and don't let Yasuda's people think we're watching them. Just run the business normally."

"clear."

Kiryu Yaya didn't say anything more, turned around and walked out of the workshop.

It was still early, and the moon was just beginning to rise.

Kiryu Yaya returned to the bank.

What Hiroki Furukawa had just said bothered him.

If the systemic bubble in the Kansai textile industry consortium bursts, will it jeopardize Mitsubishi Bank's claims?

It would have been virtually impossible for more than thirty companies to operate without loans from Mitsubishi Bank.

But if there are any, how many are there?

Kiryu Yaya wanted to figure this out.

He returned to the bank just after 7:30.

Many windows in the office building still had lights on, and the lights in the financing review department on the third floor were naturally on as well.

Several colleagues who were working overtime were packing up to leave when they saw him return. One of them looked up and greeted him.

Kiryu Yaya nodded in response, walked straight to his workstation, sat down, put his briefcase away, and then took out the list and opened it under the desk lamp.

The list is not thick, about seven or eight pages.

Each page lists the names, addresses, and approximate sizes of about seven or eight factories, and the last page reads "Reorganized in the first year of Heisei".

Then he got up with the document and left the office.

Underground storage facility.

Pushing open the door, a smell mixed with old paper, dust, and mothballs hit you.

Behind the duty desk, Yoshio Morishita was sitting in that old chair, engrossed in reading an old novel with its edges curled up.

Hearing footsteps, he looked up, squinted to make out who it was, and then smiled slightly: "Kiryu-kun, it's been a long time."

"Morishita-senpai, I'll have to trouble you again tonight."

"No trouble at all, please have a seat."

Morishita closed the book, placed it on the table, slowly stood up, and took a bunch of keys from the keypad behind him.

"What do you need to adjust this time?"

Kiryu Yaya handed the list to Morishita, saying apologetically, "This time we might have to find a lot of people."

Morishita took the list and exclaimed, "Wow, there are quite a few companies on this list! Kiryu-kun, what are you investigating?"

Kiryu Yaya replied truthfully, "I want to find out how many of these companies have loans from our Mitsubishi Bank."

Morishita adjusted his reading glasses, glanced down at the densely packed factory names on the list, and slowly hummed in agreement: "Then let's look at them one by one according to the company names on the list."

Searching for so many companies one by one would be like looking for a needle in a haystack.

However, Morishita didn't say anything.

Although his movements were slow, his efficiency was in no way lower than that of the young man Kiryu Yaya.

Higashi-Osaka Textile Co., Ltd., Sakai Fiber Industries, Osaka Chemical Fiber Processing, Kita-Kawachi Refining, Izumi Dyeing Factory, Takatsuki Fiber Products, Matsubara Sewing Factory —

Half an hour later, the two retrieved all the company files in the database that overlapped with those on the list.

Of these thirty-plus companies, thirteen had business dealings with Mitsubishi Bank.

The files were stacked on the access table.

Kiryu Yaya sat down at the table and began to check the loan status of each company one by one.

The Higashi-Osaka Textile Bureau had a short-term working capital loan of 30 million yen from Mitsubishi Bank in the first year of the Heisei era, which has now been repaid and is now closed.

Sakai Fiber Industries applied for a 50 million yen equipment upgrade loan in 2012, which was approved. However, less than a year after the loan was disbursed, it became a non-performing loan due to a contraction in downstream orders. The debt management department is currently handling the matter.

Osaka Chemical Fiber Processing is currently making normal interest payments.

Kita Hanoi Refinement has three loans totaling 120 million yen, which are currently three months overdue.

His brow furrowed slightly, but he didn't stop, continuing to scroll down.

Takatsuki fiber, Matsubara sewing, Ibaraki weaving, Tomita forest processing——

As he turned the pages of the file, Kiryu Yaya's expression gradually darkened.

Of the thirteen companies, eight still have outstanding loans from Mitsubishi Bank, totaling more than 400 million yen.

Three of them have already experienced varying degrees of overdue payments, while the remaining five are still making interest payments normally.

However, given the tightening trend within the portfolio's internal funding pool, these loans could become non-performing at any time.

More importantly, he noticed a detail.

The loan approval periods for these eight companies were highly concentrated between 1989 and 1990.

1990 years.

That was during the peak of the bubble, the year when banks were most aggressive in lending and the scrutiny was most lenient.

The loan purposes were almost invariably listed as "equipment upgrades," "capacity expansion," and "working capital replenishment."

These words, put together, along with the Kansai Fiber Industry Cooperative Association's fabricated performance boom created through fictitious orders and fund allocation, all contribute to this.

It is almost certain that a significant portion of these eight loans were approved based on fabricated performance data.

Kiryu Yaya leaned back in his chair and closed his eyes for a while.

If land prices fall more rapidly and consumption shrinks further in the second half of the year, small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises, represented by the fiber industry, will face the double impact of a precipitous drop in orders and rising financing costs.

At that time, the Kansai Fiber Industry Cooperative Association's capital pool is likely to be the first to collapse, and the member factories that are tied together by the association will fall like dominoes.

However, if these companies' debts are recovered now, they, along with other companies in the Kansai Fiber Industry Cooperative, will inevitably go bankrupt prematurely due to these companies withdrawing their loans.

On one hand, there's the livelihood of tens of thousands of people; on the other hand, there are the bank's claims.

What should I do?

At that moment, the system panel appeared before Kiryu Yaya's eyes:

New life options have been triggered.

The systemic risks of the Kansai textile industry consortium have begun to emerge. Eight outstanding loans total over 400 million yen, and the consortium's internal cash flow is tightening; a break in the financial chain is only a matter of time.

You know better than anyone that these companies are a tower of building blocks about to collapse.

The safety of the bank's claims, the livelihoods of thousands of workers, and the supply chain of your fledgling apparel brand all hang on this fragile network.

The window of opportunity for you is closing.

At this moment, you have three choices:

[Branch 1: Immediately report the risk. The abnormal operating model of the Kansai Fiber Industry Cooperative and the loan risks of its thirteen member factories should be formally reported to the Financing Review Department in the form of an internal risk warning, prompting the bank to initiate an emergency credit review.]

(Difficulty: ★)

[Branch Two: Gentle Intervention. Using his position as the manager of Miyazawa Fibers, he privately contacted several of the group's more profitable member factories to explore the possibility of integration, gradually undermining the group's control without alerting Shuhei Yasuda.]

(Difficulty: ★★★)

[Bifurcation Three: Two-pronged approach. On one hand, acting as a bank employee, report risks and push for credit reassessment; on the other hand, acting as the operator of Miyazawa Fibers, selectively acquire high-quality production capacity within the portfolio at appropriate times to complete supply chain integration. Rearrange the chessboard before the storm hits.]

(Difficulty: ★★★★★)

Please choose carefully, as this decision will impact the future landscape of the Kansai textile industry.