White-robed Minister

Chapter 237 0235 [Xu Lai's Deduction]

The officials from the three countries in charge of the negotiations spent their days eating and drinking, probing each other's bottom line, and waiting for a victory on the front lines to increase their bargaining power.

As one of the Song Dynasty's negotiating officials, Xu Lai naturally had to accompany them for meals and drinks.

Xu Lai has basically figured out the bottom line of both Liao and Xia.

The Liao envoys had no bottom line, or rather, they didn't know what a bottom line was. They just made all sorts of military threats and talked a big game of empty promises, saying one minute they'd send 300,000 troops, the next 500,000.

The Western Xia envoy insisted on using the old boundaries from the first year of the Xining era as the standard, demanding that the Song Dynasty return the land it had seized in the past three years. Furthermore, they claimed to have made concessions, willing to acknowledge that Suizhou belonged to the Song Dynasty.

The Lantern Festival is just around the corner, and everyone is looking forward to visiting the lantern fair.

Pianpian, Yu'er, Dingxiang, and Dou Niang have already gone out with their maids and servants to buy Lantern Festival decorations such as moths and willow branches.

Xu Lai accompanied them on a leisurely stroll and noticed that many shops had already started hanging colorful lights.

After walking for a while, Xu Lai asked Wang Hou and Chen Xiaoyi to protect the women, while he went straight to Donghua Gate to head towards the imperial city.

His current position is Hanlin Academician, and his specific work location is in the Academy of Academicians, located north of the Privy Council and the Xuanhui Academy. The emperor works in the next room and can summon Xu Lai at any time.

Xu Lai only checked in at the Academy of Scholars, exchanged greetings with the other Hanlin scholars, and then went straight to the History Museum.

Most of the diplomatic and intelligence documents related to the Liao and Xia dynasties are kept in the Imperial Archives. Some confidential documents are stored in the Secret Archives.

Xu Lai could freely enter and examine both the history museum and the secret archives.

"Scholar Xu, are you here to consult Liao Dynasty documents again?" Song Minqiu asked.

Xu Lai bowed and said, "Greetings, Song Longtu."

Song Minqiu was formerly a drafter of imperial edicts, responsible for writing imperial decrees for the emperor. Because he resolutely refused to write an imperial edict promoting Li Ding, he requested to be transferred to a post outside the capital but was refused. Instead, he was assigned to the Imperial Academy to compile the "Veritable Records of Emperor Yingzong," where he was quite happy to have a peaceful and carefree life.

Song Minqiu said, "I have asked several historians and officials to compile the relevant documents for you. They have been collected and compiled from the end of the Five Dynasties period to last year."

"Thank you for your help!" Xu Lai said sincerely.

Song Minqiu smiled and said, "They are all serving the country. Hehe, there are quite a few officials who negotiated with Liao and Xia, but only Scholar Xu came to review Liao documents. It's easy to tell who is doing their job well."

This fellow harbors a great deal of resentment towards Wang Anshi, and he doesn't miss any opportunity to ridicule and satirize him.

With Song Min asking for help, Xu Lai found it much easier to look up information.

Since the negotiations with the Liao Kingdom began, Xu Lai has spent his time either drinking with the envoys and trying to extract information from them while they are drunk, or researching materials in the history museum.

He had a basic grasp of the Liao Dynasty's official system, military system, and taxation system, and now began to review Liao Dynasty's relevant intelligence and diplomatic documents.

I spent the whole day browsing through it, and even had lunch here.

As it was nearing the end of the workday, Song Minqiu packed up her things to go home, only to find Xu Lai still browsing and copying documents in the history museum.

Song Minqiu smiled and said to Sun Zhu, "Scholar Xu is still busy."

Sun Zhu was previously the second-in-command of the Censorate. He was also thrown into the History Bureau to compile history books because of his opposition to Wang Anshi.

Sun Zhu peeked inside and remarked with admiration, "No wonder he was born into poverty and had no books or writing materials, yet he still managed to become the top scholar in the imperial examinations simply by eavesdropping on lectures. Now, just for participating in negotiations with the Liao Dynasty, he's already going through all of Liao's documents. Such dedication is truly rare."

As the two of them were chatting, several more historians came over and gathered around to watch Xu Lai from a distance, taking the opportunity to linger until it was time to leave work.

As soon as the clock struck midnight, the group of historians dispersed instantly.

Xu Lai stretched, put away his notes for the day, and slowly walked out of the palace.

Instead of going home for dinner, he made an appointment with Zhang to go drink with the Liao envoy.

Since the archery competition at Yujin Garden, envoys from Liao and Xia have held Zhang in high esteem, finding it easier to get things done by drinking with him.

Liao envoys were not allowed to travel freely; they usually stayed at Duting Post Station, and even if they wanted to go to the lantern festival, they had to report it.

Today, Xu has hired several courtesans, purely for singing and dancing to entertain, without any special services.

Xiao Xi asked, "The Western Xia envoy hasn't come?"

Xu Lai feigned disdain: "Why should we, brothers, concern ourselves with the affairs of those distant relatives' countries?"

Yelü Xiaochun laughed and pulled Zhang to sit down next to him, chatting about topics such as riding and archery.

As the music began, the courtesans started dancing and singing, while the officials and servants of the Duting Post Station poured wine for everyone.

Half-drunk, Xu said, "I've heard the grasslands stretch as far as the eye can see, but I've never seen them with my own eyes. Are they truly magnificent?"

Yelü Xiaochun said, "People from the Central Plains are unaware of the magnificence of the grasslands. If Scholar Xu yearns for it, he can come to our Great Liao as an envoy in the future."

Xu Lai feigned ignorance and asked, "Is the grassland only for grazing? Why not grow grain? Growing grain yields a better harvest than grazing."

"Ha ha ha ha!"

Yelü Xiaochun felt as if he had heard a huge joke: "There are very few places on the grassland that can be cultivated, yet Scholar Xu knows nothing about pastoral affairs."

"I am ashamed."

Xu Lai said, "I only know about grasslands from books. How do you levy taxes on herders? Do you do it like in the Central Plains, based on the size or quality of the land?"

This was common sense, and Yelü Xiaochun made no attempt to hide it: "The tax will be levied according to the number of people and livestock."

Xu Lai continued to inquire, asking more and more probing questions.

Xiao Xi, a civil official of the Liao Dynasty, surprisingly didn't think he had leaked intelligence and explained many common-sense things to Xu Lai.

For example, on the grasslands, there are several levels: large herders, medium and small herders, herders, and herder slaves.

Based on the information he had consulted and the accounts of the two Liao envoys, Xu Lai was able to basically determine what the Liao grasslands looked like.

Large pastors and slightly wealthier medium-sized pastors would evade military service by taking up official positions or buying titles.

Take "Sheli" for example. Its meaning is "young master," which actually refers to a nobleman's son. The Liao Dynasty even had a "Sheli Army" composed of noblemen and wealthy young men.

But now, anyone can become a "relic" simply by paying money. Then, by having their children join the Relic Army, they can evade military service. And the Relic Army doesn't actually require joining; they can just spend some money to get by without any training or fighting.

The Liao Dynasty's steppe army was rendered useless!

Its main force comes from small and medium-sized herders, who can be understood as "good families on the grasslands". Nowadays, grassland consolidation is intensifying, the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer.

Wealthy pastors have no need to join the army.

Poor herders and herders were required to serve in the military, and they had to provide their own warhorses, weapons, armor, and even some of their own provisions. In some bizarre cases, even those who had fallen into servitude were still forced to provide their own weapons and armor to fight!

Doesn't it resemble the Tang Dynasty's Fubing system, which eventually collapsed?

The Xi people in the Yanshan region and the Han people in the southern Yan region also faced heavy taxes and corvée labor. Moreover, the conscription of laborers was completely chaotic, leading to a farcical situation: Han scholars from Yanjing (Beijing) were conscripted as laborers after only a short trip outside the city. After the explanation, the officials in charge of conscription were amused and burst into laughter.

Whether they were Khitans, Xis, Hans, or Bohais, the number of good families was constantly shrinking, and the Liao Dynasty recruited mainly soldiers from the poor.

In other words, the Liao army was no longer the Liao army of yesteryear, and its combat effectiveness was far inferior to that of the Western Army of the Song Dynasty. Thirty years later, the Liao Dynasty also implemented reforms, and surprisingly succeeded in replicating Wang Anshi's exemption from corvée labor law, which slightly restored the Liao army's combat effectiveness.

The day before the Lantern Festival, Xu Lai was summoned by the emperor again to inquire about the progress of the negotiations.

The important officials of both governments were present.

"Your Majesty, a war is inevitable. The Liao and Xia states have no sincerity in negotiating peace," Xu Lai reported.

Zhao Xu asked, "Did you manage to get any information from the Liao envoys?"

Xu Lai said, "They've already found out, but they don't know it."

"Huh?" Zhao Xu didn't understand.

Xu Lai explained, "Even the Liao envoys, both the chief and deputy, don't know how many troops will be sent, or even if Liao will send troops at all. I suspect that even the Liao emperor doesn't know."

Zhao Xu was both amused and exasperated: "How could the Liao emperor not know?"

Xu Lai said, "The Liao emperor is indulging in pleasure and has handed over military power to the Liao Grand Tutor. If the Liao Grand Tutor were to mobilize a large army and win, it would naturally enhance his prestige, but it would also arouse the Liao emperor's suspicion!"

"So, whether the Liao Kingdom will send out a large army depends on the Liao Grand Tutor's wishes?" Zhao Xu asked.

Xu Lai replied, "For the past two weeks, I have thoroughly reviewed Liao documents and inquired about the details from Liao envoys. I can conclude that Liao will not send a large army."

Zhao Xu was very interested in this: "Tell me in detail."

Zeng Gongliang, Wang Anshi, Wen Yanbo and other important officials from both offices were also waiting to hear Xu Lai's assessment that the Liao Kingdom would not send out a large army.

Xu Lai recounted in detail the various systems of the Liao Kingdom, even discussing the people's livelihood in recent years. He then said, "Three years ago, many parts of the Liao Kingdom suffered severe disasters, resulting in countless refugees. Now, the refugees have not yet been fully appeased, yet they are donating and selling grain to the Western Xia, completely disregarding the people's livelihood within their own country."

"If the Liao Kingdom were to mobilize a large army, it would only be to conscript Xi people, Han people, and Bohai people. The Xi people have not yet recovered from the severe drought and have been burdened with heavy responsibilities all year round. Forcibly conscripting too many of them could even lead to a rebellion."

"The Bohai people are too far away, and transporting supplies is difficult, making it almost impossible to bring them to Hebei to fight."

"The Han Chinese clans such as Yan, Nan, Han, Liu, Ma, and Zhao, as well as the Khitan nobles and Buddhist temples, controlled a large amount of land and population."

They annexed countless territories, yet evaded taxes and corvée labor. The Liao Dynasty now lacks funds for war, and can only conscript the poorest households.

"As for the tens of thousands of standing troops in Nanjing (Beijing) of the Liao Kingdom, they have enjoyed peace for a long time and have not fought a war for decades."

"If the Liao Kingdom wants to send more than 100,000 troops, it must forcibly conscript soldiers, laborers, and provisions in southern Yan. However, the people of southern Yan are already overburdened, and if they are defeated, civil unrest will break out everywhere!"

"The Liao army is extremely weak now. If they take the initiative to attack, the generals on the Hebei border only need to defend the city carefully, and they will surely be able to defeat them all."

Lü Gongbi said, "These are just speculations."

Xu Lai asked, "What insightful opinion does Minister Lü have?"

"The Liao army's troops in Yannan are extremely elite," said Lü Gongbi.

Xu Lai asked with a smile, "An elite force that hasn't fought a war in decades, whose pay isn't always paid in full, and who has to work to supplement their income?"

Lu Gongbi was speechless for a moment, because Xu's description was so vivid that it immediately reminded him of the Kaifeng Imperial Guards.

Wang Anshi said, "If what Scholar Xu says is true, there is no need to worry about the Liao Kingdom sending troops. Let's first wipe out the rebels in Kuizhou!"

Xu Lai was completely confused. What the hell was this Kuizhou rebel army?

However, in Nanchuan County and Ba County, there were three major families, all of whom were "civilized barbarians" who had submitted to the Song Dynasty. Each family owned several thousand tenant farmers, coercing Han Chinese to become their tenants. If they refused to comply, they would kill the Han Chinese and seize their land. The land they seized was not taxed, and they frequently harbored and kept fugitives.

They also frequently disguise themselves as Liao people to plunder the people of various ethnic groups in Kuizhou. Now they are even building fortified villages and manufacturing weapons.

Sun Gou, the transport commissioner of Kuizhou, and Zhang Shen, the transport judge, had been leading troops to fight against them for a year, but they were defeated by these guys.

Wen Yanbo said, "Since these bandits are so difficult to wipe out, why not try to offer them amnesty and give them a chance to reform?"

Xu Lai was immediately enraged: "These three families are merely Yi tribes, with only ten or twenty thousand soldiers, and their armor is extremely rudimentary. To offer amnesty to such people is tantamount to condoning more rebellions! Even if we appease them, does that mean they won't commit further crimes in the future?"

Wang Anshi responded firmly: "Your Majesty, I recommend Zhang Dun to go to Kuizhou to quell the rebellion!"

Zhao Xu nodded and said, "Alright."

Wen Yanbo was extremely dissatisfied. He felt that the emperor was too wasteful in his military campaigns. Why did he have to use force to suppress these notorious bandits who could have been appeased? They had already been suppressing them for a year, suffering heavy losses in both manpower and resources. Appeasement was the most cost-effective and reliable solution.

With Wang Anshi and Xu Lai echoing each other's military pronouncements and the emperor so inclined to trust them, what will become of the Song Dynasty?

Xu Lai also grew increasingly annoyed with Wen Yanbo. He didn't want to offend anyone, but now he wanted to get Wen Yanbo dismissed from his post. Just looking at this guy was enough to annoy him!

Leaving the main hall, Wang Anshi bowed to Xu Lai and asked, "I wish to continue reforming the military system. Would Scholar Xu be willing to assist me?"

Wang Anshi has recently taken another action, ordering the disbandment of 5,000 Shaanxi garrison troops. These were mostly old and weak men unable to fight, and their removal would save military funds, which could then be used for the border troops.

Xu Lai, unwilling to follow Wang Anshi, gave an ambiguous answer: "I will listen to His Majesty."

Wang Anshi believed that he could persuade the emperor and win over Xu Lai, so he decided to recommend Xu Lai as the Deputy Privy Councilor.

Xu Lai strolled home. Tonight, he would test the lights and enjoy them with his family.

Back in the capital, with no battles to fight, he could only secretly copy some poems to make his presence felt.

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