Beiyang Dream

June 17th, the 17th year of the Guangxu Emperor's reign. Tianjin.

In the main hall of the Zhili Governor-General's Office, Li Hongzhang sat in a grand chair, holding a handkerchief in his hand, wiping the sweat from his bald forehead from time to time.

Sitting opposite him was Keisuke Ōtori, the Japanese minister to Qing China, dressed in a black suit, completely covered up, with beads of sweat streaming down his cheeks and his collar soaked. That's how the Japanese do things; the hotter it gets, the tighter they button their collars, as if loosening a single button would be a loss of national dignity.

A stack of white paper lay before him, and he held a calligraphy brush in his hand, dipped it in ink, and wrote quickly, stroke by stroke.

The British Consul in Tianjin, Chris Jarris, sat to the side, legs crossed, holding a cup of chilled tea. It contained ice, making it chilled in the physical sense. The ice had been taken from the Governor's mansion's ice cellar and frozen the previous winter. He sipped it listlessly, a fake smile—the hallmark of a British gentleman—on his face: seemingly warm, but actually quite hypocritical.

Also present were Li Hongzhang's son-in-law Zhang Peilun and Luo Fenglu, a staff member in charge of the Westernization Movement.

Luo Fenglu sat next to Jia Lishi, occasionally leaning over to listen to Jia Lishi mutter a few words in English, which he then relayed to Li Hongzhang.

This was a "written discussion." Da Niao's Mandarin was mediocre, and Li Hongzhang, unwilling to listen to his halting official speech, decided to communicate by writing. Da Niao's knowledge of Chinese was decent; he could write beautiful characters. Li Hongzhang dictated, and Zhang Peilun wrote back. The back-and-forth was like a game of billiards. Da Niao finished writing and handed it over with both hands. Zhang Peilun stood up, took it, glanced at it, and frowned slightly.

Li Hongzhang saw it and asked, "What's wrong?"

Zhang Peilun turned the paper around and handed it over, lowering his voice: "Your Excellency, Minister Big Bird said... the Japanese cabinet intends to join forces with our Great Qing to deal with the Russians."

Li Hongzhang put down the handkerchief and paused for two seconds.

He took the paper and read it over and over again. The writing by the large bird was brief, but the meaning was clear: Japan hoped to join forces with the Qing Dynasty to resist Russian expansion in the Far East. In exchange, Japan was willing to recognize the Qing Dynasty's privileged status in Korea…

Li Hongzhang put down the paper and slowly turned his gaze to Jia Lishi.

Jarris understood the meaning behind that look, put down his teacup, nodded to Luo Fenglu, and rattled off a string of English. Luo Fenglu listened intently, then turned to Li Hongzhang: "The Consul said that Britain is pleased to see Japan and Qing resolve their misunderstandings and jointly maintain the prosperity and stability of the Far East." Li Hongzhang stroked his beard, his face expressionless, but his heart was pounding.

Is Britain happy to see this?

He sneered inwardly. How could Britain possibly welcome a Qing-Japanese alliance? If Qing and Japan banded together, and the two yellow-skinned people united in the Far East, how could Britain maintain its divide-and-rule strategy? What about agreed-upon tariffs? What about extraterritoriality? What about unilateral most-favored-nation treatment? Did they still want them?

Looking at Jarris's smiling face, Li Hongzhang began to ponder: either Britain had ulterior motives, wanting to use the Qing-Japanese alliance as leverage to pressure Russia; or Japan itself was trying to trick Russia, using the British consul as a figurehead—Britain might not actually support them, but was simply too lazy to say it outright. There was also the possibility that Jarris hadn't received any explicit instructions from London and was acting on his own.

But you can't ask that to Jarris's face.

Zhang Peilun had already picked up his brush, dipped it in ink, and was waiting for Li Hongzhang to speak. Seeing that his father-in-law remained silent, he whispered, "Your Excellency, why don't we let the Japanese show their sincerity first?"

Li Hongzhang tapped his fingers twice on the table: "You mean... the Tianjin Special Treaty?"

Zhang Peilun nodded: "We should try to get whatever we can. Since Japan has taken the initiative to propose an alliance, wouldn't we be foolish not to take this opportunity to ask for something? Maybe we can even get the British to bleed a little too."

Li Hongzhang nodded.

This is promising. In the eleventh year of the Guangxu Emperor's reign, we suffered a loss and stipulated that both countries would withdraw their troops from Korea simultaneously, with neither allowed to station troops there. Back then, the Qing Dynasty suffered a loss, but there was nothing they could do; they had just finished fighting France and needed a breather. But now, the Russians are advancing south, and Japan is even more anxious than the Qing Dynasty. Fortune's wheel turns, and this year it's our turn.

"Tell them," Li Hongzhang began, "that we can first discuss revising the Treaty of Tianjin, and that the Japanese side should clearly recognize the Qing Dynasty's suzerainty over Korea."

Zhang Peilun wrote a few lines with swift, flowing strokes and handed them to Ootori Keisuke.

Big Bird took it and looked at it, his face not showing much expression. He turned the paper over, wrote a few lines, and handed it back.

Zhang Peilun took it and paused for a moment.

He handed it to Li Hongzhang and lowered his voice: "Your Excellency, the Japanese proposal is that the Treaty of Tianjin can be revised, and the Qing Dynasty can station 3,000 troops in Korea to protect Korea against Russia. Japan only requests to retain a 400-man embassy guard in Korea."

Li Hongzhang stared at that piece of paper for the time it takes to drink half a cup of tea.

Three thousand troops were stationed there.

He mentally counted on his fingers: Three thousand Qing soldiers were stationed in Korea, ostensibly to defend against Russia, but in reality, they controlled most of the country. The Japanese only left four hundred embassy guards, far fewer than three thousand—negligible!

But... something's not right.

Li Hongzhang knew perfectly well that the Japanese weren't that generous. They were currently focused on dealing with Russia, and would rather let the Qing Dynasty extend its influence into Korea first than allow Russia to gain a foothold. Once Russia withdrew, they would certainly renege on their promises. But that was a matter for later; what they had in hand now was the real benefit.

Zhang Peilun leaned closer again: "Your Excellency, the Qing Dynasty's title of leader is nominal, but the 3,000 troops stationed there are real. In Korea, whoever has more troops calls the shots."

Li Hongzhang stroked his beard and remained silent for a while: "Let's add two more. First, the Qing Dynasty must unilaterally establish a new concession in Korea; second, the Qing Dynasty can help Korea train a new army and officers."

"Write it to him."

Zhang Peilun picked up his pen and wrote furiously for a while, then handed the note over.

The big bird took it without blinking, glanced at it, and felt a surge of joy in its heart.

Three thousand troops, a concession, training a new Korean army… the demands seemed high, but they were all within Japan's acceptable range. After all, what were three thousand Qing soldiers? If the Imperial Army's elite forces wanted to take Korea in the future, could three thousand Qing soldiers possibly stop tens of thousands of troops? As for the concession, giving it to them was fine; it was Korean land, not Japanese territory—just being generous at someone else's expense. Training a new army? Who knew who those trained would fight in the future? Big Bird understood, but his face remained indifferent. He picked up his pen again and wrote, then returned it with a new request: "The Japanese side hopes to invite the Beiyang Fleet and the Japanese Combined Fleet to jointly patrol the east coast of Korea in the near future, to deter the Russians."

Zhang Peilun took a look and handed it to Li Hongzhang.

Li Hongzhang finished reading, his brows furrowing. He pondered: The Beiyang Fleet patrolling the east coast of Korea alongside the Japanese Navy? Wasn't that aimed at the Russian Pacific Fleet in Wonsan? The Japanese were trying to use the Beiyang Fleet as a shield. If the Beiyang Fleet went, the Russians would certainly have to think twice. But in that case, the Beiyang Fleet would become a bargaining chip for the Japanese; they could claim to the outside world that "Qing China and Japan have joined forces." Zhang Peilun, noticing his father-in-law's hesitation, whispered, "Your Excellency, Yuan Weiting and Chang Zhenbang have repeatedly advised against using the navy, suggesting instead the land forces..." Li Hongzhang smiled faintly.

He understood the thoughts of Yuan Shikai and Chang Desheng. Reinforcing the army was a real asset, and any movement of the navy would cause a major disturbance, potentially helping the Japanese extricate themselves from their predicament. But then again… how many more could the army be added? Three thousand at most. The appearance of the navy's ironclad warships would carry a completely different weight. To truly end the standoff at Wonsan, the Beiyang Fleet would be needed.

Chang Zhenbang, that kid, says "Don't touch the navy," but who knows what he's plotting. Is he raising an enemy to enhance his own power? Or is he waiting for a better price to sell? He's always been a shrewd strategist than anyone else.

He thought for a moment and said to Zhang Peilun, "Tell the Japanese that as long as the Tianjin Treaty is revised, the Beiyang Fleet can visit Japan as a gesture of goodwill. As for the east coast of Korea, we will not go there for the time being, to avoid escalating the situation in Wonsan."

He paused, then added, "I have instructed Chang Zhenbang to work with the British Consul-General in Seoul, Hill, to mediate the Russo-Japanese conflict. Today, he will meet with Baron Korf of Russia aboard the Kowshing."

Zhang Peilun wrote down each word carefully and handed it to the big bird.

The big bird took it and looked at it, and already had a general idea of ​​what was going on.

Li Hongzhang's meaning was clear: the Beiyang Fleet's visit to Japan was a sweet treat, meant to whet Japan's appetite. Sending the navy to the Japanese coast would be a huge bargaining chip for Japan. If the Russians knew, they would have to think twice. But at the same time, Li Hongzhang was also mediating in Wonsan, sending the slippery Chang Desheng to negotiate with the Russians. Chang Desheng was greedy, shrewd, and deceitful; sending him to mediate would likely prevent things from stopping anytime soon.

Big Bird quickly ran through the details in his mind: On one side, they were negotiating the revision of the Tianjin Treaty; on the other, they were stalling with the Russians in Yuanshan; and in between, they were holding onto the Beiyang Fleet as leverage… Li Hongzhang wanted to use the navy as a bargaining chip in the Russo-Japanese negotiations to exchange for concessions on treaty revision. That old man, he was more cunning than anyone else. Big Bird picked up his pen again and wrote faster than before: “The Japanese side hopes to negotiate with His Excellency in Tianjin on the revision of the Tianjin Treaty and the matter of a Sino-Japanese alliance.”

Zhang Peilun read it, handed it over, and whispered, "Your Excellency, even if the alliance fails, as long as negotiations begin, it's a card the Japanese can play. The Japanese can say to the outside world that the Qing Dynasty wants to join forces with Japan against Russia..."

Li Hongzhang waved his hand: "It's alright, perhaps we can really reach an agreement. Tell him that treaty revision negotiations can begin first. However, if the two countries join forces, the consequences could be serious, and we need the Emperor and Empress Dowager's permission before negotiations can proceed."

Upon receiving the note, Big Bird finally put down his pen, picked up the cup of "herbal tea" that was no longer herbal tea, and took a sip.

Jarris, standing nearby, interjected in English, which Luo Fenglu translated: "His Excellency the Consul said he was pleased to see this friendly step between the two countries and that Britain will continue to play an active role in Far Eastern affairs."

Li Hongzhang smiled and cupped his hands in greeting, but in his heart he was thinking about something else: Chang Zhenbang's negotiations with the Russians on the Kowshing must be about to begin, right? That kid, I hope he doesn't anger the Russians to the point of bombarding the Japanese concession again.

Yuanshan, Qing Dynasty Concession, second floor of the telegraph office.

noon.

Chang Desheng had just put down his chopsticks when a "Yuanshan Defense Map" was spread out on a square table in front of him. He had drawn the map himself, and the scale, contour lines, and radiation boundary markings were all done very neatly. In his previous life, it would have been a CAD construction drawing.

The core of the defense plan was a ring of fortifications surrounding the "Three Buildings" in the Qing concession. The outer perimeter consisted of barbed wire and trenches, while the core positions included artillery positions, anti-artillery bunkers, underground warehouses, and ammunition depots. It could house up to a thousand men and deploy six cannons with a diameter of 12 centimeters or larger.

Chang Desheng stared at the artillery positions on the map and counted on his fingers: the position was beginning to take shape, with two layers of barbed wire, trenches dug four feet deep, three bunkers built, and the artillery positions leveled. However, only three cannons with a caliber of twelve centimeters were present—all of which were "borrowed" from Lao Li, and even the artillerymen were Lao Li's. The other three cannons, with a caliber of fifteen centimeters, were nowhere to be seen.

"What about the military spending Hill promised? What about the artillery that Japanese bastard Oishi talked about?" he muttered, tapping his fingers on the table. "They're all just talking big, each one a better pie in the sky than the last."

He was just about to sit down and recalculate the construction costs when he heard footsteps downstairs. Then the curtain was lifted, and Duan Qirui's face peeked in.

"Zhenbang! Good news, good news!" Duan Qirui had a rare smile on his face, holding a telegram in his hand and waving it around as if he were holding up a victory report.

Chang Desheng was overjoyed. Without even looking at the telegram, he blurted out, "Zhiquan, is the money and cannons from the British and Japanese about to arrive?" Duan Qirui slammed the telegram on the table: "Why are you only thinking about money and cannons? Look for yourself! It's a telegram from the Grand Secretary forwarded by Lord Yuan. The Japanese want to join forces with our Great Qing and have even agreed to revise the Tianjin Treaty!"

Chang Desheng was startled: "What?"

He grabbed the telegram, first skimming through it, then reading it word by word.

The telegram, forwarded by Yuan Shikai from Seoul, was brief but packed with information: "Today's negotiations in Tianjin saw Japanese Minister Keisuke Ōtori propose a joint effort against Russia, suggesting revisions to the Tianjin Convention to allow the Qing Dynasty to station 3,000 troops in Korea, establish an additional concession, and assist Korea in training its new army… Negotiations are underway. The Grand Secretary orders: Wonsan should continue mediation to prevent escalation."

Chang Desheng stared at the paper and muttered, "It can't be that bad... Is my butterfly effect really that big?"

His mind raced: Historically, the First Sino-Japanese War was still three years away from starting, so why was Japan now proactively seeking an alliance? And even willingly relinquishing the right to station troops? This wasn't how things were supposed to go. The historical significance of the First Sino-Japanese War was extraordinary!

That marked the beginning of the Self-Strengthening Movement's collapse and the countdown to the Qing Dynasty's demise. And now? Japan is begging to join forces with the Qing Dynasty?

"The Qing and Japanese have joined forces... So will the First Sino-Japanese War still happen?" he muttered to himself.

The First Sino-Japanese War was truly a war with a tumultuous history. From the time he first transmigrated over two years ago, it was almost like "Schrödinger's First Sino-Japanese War," and who knows if it would even happen.

Just when history seemed to be getting back on track these past few months, why did this Japan-Singapore alliance suddenly emerge?

This thing... can't possibly work, right?

Duan Qirui was completely bewildered: "Zhenbang, what are you talking about? What butterfly? What turtle?"

Chang Desheng snapped out of his daze, folded the telegram neatly, and tucked it into his pocket: "Ah, it's nothing. We're having turtle tonight."

"Soft-shelled turtle?" Duan Qirui was even more confused. "Where would we get soft-shelled turtles here?"

"I said let's eat, so let's eat." Chang Desheng waved his hand and began tidying up the defense map on the table. "Let's not talk about food... it's getting late, we still have an appointment with Lord Xi and Sir Kolf to negotiate on the Goshing! Where's Xi in Ming? Has he arrived yet? If he has, let's go to the Goshing together!" He said he was going to eat turtle and go to the Goshing, but in his heart he was calculating: Japan and Qing joining forces? Impossible, absolutely impossible. My butterfly effect can't be that big. This is fucking illogical!