A song from Chengdu revived a closed-down pub.
Chapter 291 Su Fan's Advice
Su Fan picked up the pen on the table and drew three lines on the paper: "The current problem needs to be broken down into three parts. First, the debt of the fund; second, the legal validity of the guarantee; and third, the operation and cash flow of Tengfei Group itself. These three things must be completely separated. The other party's current tactic is to deliberately mix them together and use the fund's hole to destroy the credit of the entire Tengfei Group. The first thing to do now is not to save the stock price, nor to rush to pay back all the investors' money, but to give the market a verifiable risk boundary."
Ye Sicheng asked, "What do you mean?"
Su Fan said, "What the market is really afraid of is not the 1 billion, but that nobody knows if there is another 5 billion behind the 1 billion. Tengfei's previous announcement only said that the business was normal, but did not disclose how much responsibility it would have to bear in the worst-case scenario. In the eyes of the market, this kind of vague response is not prudent, but guilty. The other party has calculated that you dare not reveal your hand, so they dare to release information batch by batch. Therefore, the next announcement cannot be delayed any longer. Establish a special investigation team composed of independent directors, accounting firms and law firms to clearly state the total size of the fund, the remaining funds, the funds already transferred, the number of guarantee agreements, and the upper limit of the liability that the listed company may bear. List out how many effective guarantees there are, how many are in doubt, and what the worst-case repayment amount is. At the same time, disclose Tengfei's current cash, unused credit, operating cash flow of mature projects, and rigid expenditures for the next three months. Don't just say that the company's operations are normal. Use numbers to tell the market whether Tengfei can still operate normally even according to the worst-case scenario."
Ye Sicheng frowned and said, "Won't making all of this public cause even greater panic?"
"In the short term, things will definitely look bad, but even bad numbers are better than the unknown. Moreover, the other side has some information. If you hide one piece of information today, they will release another piece tomorrow. Every time they release information, Tengfei's credibility will be depleted. Rather than letting them control the pace, it is better to lay all your cards on the table at once. What they rely on is the information gap. Once the information gap is gone, the information they have will lose its lethality."
Ye Sicheng nodded thoughtfully: "And then?"
"Second, cut off the transmission of risk." Su Fan nodded on the second line. "Build a firewall between the listed company, the Ye family, and the fund. Tengfei cannot repay a single penny of debts for which there is no legal obligation. Disputed guarantees should be handed over to lawyers and the court for determination. Once the liability is confirmed to be valid, a special plan should be developed to handle it. We absolutely cannot use the listed company's operating funds for indiscriminate repayment just because the other party comes to us at the same time. In addition, we should manage the funds accounts of each mature scenic spot, hotel, and project under construction separately. The money generated by the project should be used to prioritize employee wages, normal operation, and necessary construction. We cannot let the fund's debts drag down those projects that were originally operating normally."
Ye Sicheng asked, "What should we do about those investors who keep pressing for money?"
"Separate them. Those who really want to get their money back and those who want to bring down Tengfei have different demands. Those who are willing to negotiate normally should sign a deferred payment agreement, and handle the principal, returns, and penalties separately. First, confirm the principal, then discuss the returns, and finally discuss the penalties. We can use a portion of the future revenue rights of mature cultural tourism projects as credit enhancement, or introduce long-term domestic funds for project-level financing. However, we cannot use control of Tengfei Group to exchange for short-term cash. As for those who refuse to negotiate, insist on filing lawsuits simultaneously, or even secretly contact the acquirer, we should list them all separately and investigate their sources of funds, their connections with each other, and whether they have a concerted action relationship. In particular, those investment institutions that have recently contacted minority shareholders may appear to be unrelated, but that does not mean they do not have the same investor behind the scenes."
Zhang Hang, the person in charge of securities affairs, couldn't help but ask, "But they've spread their shares across different accounts, making it difficult to trace the connection."
Su Fan said, "Then let's trace the money from its source. Accounts can be dispersed, but it's difficult to completely sever the flow of funds, transaction times, and contact persons. Let's review the recent shareholder register, abnormal trading accounts, and large-scale transaction intentions. If several institutions acquire Tengfei shares at similar prices around the same time and simultaneously contact fund investors, there's reason to suspect that they are acting in concert. If their combined shareholding reaches the information disclosure standard but they fail to fulfill their disclosure obligations, we'll hand over the materials to the regulatory authorities. They want to secretly acquire shares, so let's bring them into the open first."
In the meeting room, everyone fell silent.
Ye Sicheng looked at the three lines on the paper and asked, "And the third one?"
"Third, maintain confidence in the cultural tourism sector. The real foundation for its take-off is not the stock price, but the scenic spots, hotels and projects that are still operating normally. Have all of our mature scenic spots and hotels announce that they are operating normally. In conjunction with tourism platforms, travel agencies and local partners, issue a joint statement confirming that tickets, annual passes and vacation packages can be used normally. For tourists who really want a refund, open a fast refund channel."
Ye Sicheng was taken aback: "We're short of cash right now, and you're proactively refunding them?"
"The more you prevent refunds, the more people will think you're out of money. Only a small percentage of people actually request refunds. As long as the refund channel is open, most people won't be in a hurry to get refunds. Once confidence is stabilized, the scale of refunds will naturally decrease. In addition, open up the projects that have been rumored to have stopped work to the media and partners for on-site inspections. Make all the information that can be made public, such as the construction progress, payment status, and employee salary records, public. Don't let the group's own people stand up and say that everything is normal. Let the construction companies, local partners, tourism platforms, and accountants speak. The words of third parties are more effective than a hundred words from Tengfei itself."
Ye Sicheng pondered for a moment and then asked, "What about the stock price?"
"The stock price cannot be saved by buying back shares. At least for now, we cannot use our already tight cash reserves to forcibly prop up the market. Once market confidence is restored, the stock price will naturally recover. If you rush to announce a buyback now, the outside world will suspect that Tengfei is trying to create a false prosperity with its last bit of cash. Tengfei's major shareholders can publicly promise not to reduce their holdings within a certain period, and the company's management can also demonstrate their confidence in the group's long-term operation through compliant means. But the most important thing is to clarify the debt ceiling and present the operating data. What you need to stabilize is not today's stock price curve, but the market's judgment on Tengfei's solvency."
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