Mage Joan

Joan couldn't agree with Mr. Pinkerton's suspicion of Professor Moriarty, which made no sense from the motive of committing the crime.

What benefit can Professor Moriarty have from the rescue of Harry Kaufman's escape?

If there is no benefit, why did he do this illegal thing?

When trapping Harry Kaufman, Mr. Professor provided indispensable help to the police. Thanks to his "true knowledge", everyone can see that Harry does have a deformed pedigree.

If he really rescued Harry from the prison, why did he help the police put Harry in jail?

Based on common sense, Joan has every reason to think that Ted Pinkerton has a prejudice against Professor Moriarty, and brought this prejudice into the case, made an irrational judgment, and brought a completely innocent person. , Mistaken as a suspect.

However, for some reason, Qiao An still felt a little uneasy.

He can list a hundred reasons to prove that his mentor has no motivation to commit crimes, but in the end he can not completely eliminate the inexplicable doubts in his heart.

Qiao An was stunned for a long time, and his troubled mind still couldn't calm down. He simply suspended his work and went to the mentor's lab to see if he was busy or if there were any signs of abnormality.

...

Joan walked into the instructor's laboratory and found that Professor Moriarty was sitting at the desk and sorting out the experiment log. He didn't see any abnormality in his manner.

"Joan, are you free today?"

"Now is my break time, come and visit to see what you are busy with."

Joanne took a chair and sat down next to the instructor. He found that the laboratory was extremely deserted, and he was a bit puzzled.

"Teacher, haven't you experimented today?"

Professor Moriarty looked up at his students, his grey-blue eyes gloomy.

"The second phase of the experiment has been completed, and all living subjects have also been disposed of."

The word "handling" made Joan feel a little uncomfortable. Scratched his head and took the initiative to change the subject.

"How are the results of the experiment?"

"Not bad." A smile appeared in Professor Moriarty's eyes.

"From the statistical data of the previous and the second phases of the experiment, the vaccinated subjects generally gained immunity against smallpox virus, and the effect was better than I expected."

"Congratulations, you have made a major breakthrough!"

Joan is sincerely proud of the excellent work of his tutor.

Professor Moriarty shook his head, his face sad.

"Don't be too happy first, there is a set of experimental data that is not very good-looking. The accidental mortality rate of all vaccinated specimens is as high as 2%."

"What is the specific cause of death?" Qiao An asked in surprise.

"Dying from smallpox."

Professor Moriarty revealed a cold reality with calm words.

"The vaccinia inoculated with the test body is actually a virus sample collected from smallpox patients, which can be referred to as "human pox" for short."

"Human pox has a fatal flaw, no matter how to reduce the poison, or an accident will occur. From the experimental results, the probability of accidental death is about 2%."

Joan listened to the tutor's remarks silently, and his heart stirred up waves.

Professor Moriarty's "accidental risk", translated into vernacular, means that a person who was already very healthy, inoculated with human pox in order to prevent smallpox, instead became infected with smallpox and died like that.

No one wants to die. It’s unclear, but before the vaccination, no one knows who these 2% random dooms will happen to.

This is not a deliberate murder, not even a manslaughter. People who accidentally contract smallpox due to vaccination of humans can blame anyone besides sighing their own misfortune?

To be fair, the vaccine against vaccinations invented by Professor Moriarty is certainly not perfect, but in areas where smallpox outbreaks occur, relative to local residents, the mortality rate is as high as 15%, and the 2% accidental risk is far from enough to deter people from being vaccinated. .

This is like a gamble. Choosing to inoculate human pox is like choosing to bet on the side with the greater win. It is completely rational, and there is no choice but to lose.

If one million people are vaccinated against human pox, according to Professor Moriarty’s statistics, about 20,000 people will die of uncontrollable medical risks, and some of them may not be infected with smallpox for life. White is dead.

However, if 1 million high-risk groups are not vaccinated, about 150,000 people will die from smallpox infection.

150,000 is far greater than 20,000. From the perspective of probability statistics, it is obviously worthwhile to inoculate human pox.

However, in the interim, Joan realized that he was measuring life from the perspective of an outsider as data available for addition and subtraction.

If the same thing happens to yourself, if you unfortunately become a member of the 2% group, can you still think so?

What makes Joan even more disturbed is that even if he put this statistic in front of him, he did not really feel sad for the accidental death of the 20,000 people. In contrast, he is more pleased that there are 130,000 People, who should have died from smallpox, are now preserved by vaccination.

However, "human life" is only a unit of quantity that can be compared and added to or subtracted from each other?

Will the value of 20,000 lives be less than 130,000 lives?

A person's death is a tragedy.

The death of thousands of people is just a string of cold figures.

Joan was deeply saddened by the failure to feel the sorrow she deserved.

...

P.S: Some reference data about vaccination of "human pox"

In the smallpox epidemic in Boston in 1723, the mortality rate of smallpox infections among people who were not vaccinated was 15%, and the mortality rate of vaccinated human pox was 2%.

From 1721 to 1732, people who received human pox in the United Kingdom had an accidental death rate of about 2%.

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