The sun never sets

On the other hand, even if people are prepared for the last crisis, the next crisis may be triggered in a different way. If we use past experience to fight future crises, it may be a dead end, because the solution used last time may be ineffective or even counterproductive next time.

Crises are cyclical. Often, after facing a crisis, humans will struggle in frustration for a while, fight back, and maybe the crisis will pass. This sounds a bit like facing epidemics before vaccines - infecting many people and killing many of them. Such infectious diseases spread among the population for several years, broke out a few times, and then passed quietly and no longer prevalent. People don't know how it ended or whether their efforts were effective.

Last year, in the first half of 1928, Hoover, then Secretary of Commerce, stepped on the brakes and advocated restrictions on speculation, but at that time, there were only a few people who saw things more clearly like him. Later, when he was elected president, he could not prevent the United States from falling into the Great Depression, but instead got himself into trouble. His luck was really bad.

However, Mr. Hoover only wanted to limit speculation and did not foresee such a serious economic crisis. If Hoover had known that such a terrible thing would happen, he would probably not have spent so much money on running for election.

The United States in this world did not win the world war, and paid a heavy price in the Australian and Central American wars, but it had many more financial innovations, which led to the outbreak of an economic crisis in the United States in 1929, but much earlier.

In another world, the economic crisis in the United States broke out in late October 1929. In this time and space, the New York stock market exploded in early May. Whether in October or May, the stock market crash led to the collapse of the US economy.

In order to fight against the worldwide wave of syndicalism and the growing power of the Human Innovation League, Germany and the United States have become closer and closer, forming close ties in politics and economy. The outbreak of the US economic crisis has led to the German economy also going into trouble. In addition, the economies of Britain and National France have also gone into trouble.

In contrast, the Anglo-French Alliance and the Central American Syndicalist Federation developed rapidly, and the People's Revolutionary League was even carrying out its third five-year plan, which was in stark contrast to the wailing in New York and Berlin.

William III was visiting a local oil refinery in Southeast Asia. When he heard about the economic crisis in the United States, he fell into anxiety. He knew very well how closely the German economy was linked to the United States. If the American economy had problems, the German economy would inevitably be affected.

Sure enough, within a few days, bad news came from Berlin. Germany's exports plummeted, and many signed contracts could not be fulfilled. Many American businessmen and companies would rather pay high liquidated damages than complete the transaction. Some companies and individuals simply went bankrupt, and the client blew himself up or went bankrupt.

William III immediately returned to the mainland from Nanyang, and then drove to Chang'an. If he wanted to return to Berlin as soon as possible, taking a ship was a better choice than taking a train. He couldn't take a plane because it was too unsafe.

However, William III needs to talk to Chairman Lin again. According to the advice of his advisors, the place that can solve Germany's current problems is Chang'an, not Berlin. After losing the United States, the world's second largest market, Germany has nowhere to sell its industrial products, and Egypt and Africa do not have much purchasing power.

With the collapse of the stock market, the US economy immediately fell into a devastating disaster. A terrible chain reaction soon occurred: crazy runs, bank failures, factory closures, worker unemployment, poverty, organized resistance, and the brink of civil war. Agricultural capitalists and large farmers destroyed a large number of "surplus" products, used wheat and corn instead of coal as fuel, and poured milk into the Mississippi River, turning the river into a "Milky Way."

The homeless in the city built simple shelters with wooden boards, old iron sheets, tarpaulins and even brown paper. The villages where these huts were gathered were called "Hoover Villages". The begging bags of the homeless were called

"Hoover bags", cars that were pulled by animals because people could not afford fuel were called "Hoover cars", and even the newspapers covering the homeless sleeping on street benches were called "Hoover blankets".

The street apple vendors became one of the most well-known symbols of the Great Depression. Many of those who were forced to make a living by operating mobile fruit stands were once successful businessmen and bankers.

The situation in Germany was better than that in the United States. The conservatism of the Junker class meant that financial innovation was not rolled out as quickly in Germany, and the impact of the economic crisis was not as great as in the United States. However, the situation in the German Empire was definitely not good.

The economy went into recession, purchasing power declined, factories closed, and a large number of workers lost their jobs. All the situations that occurred in the United States during the economic crisis were also experienced in Germany. On the one hand, workers in the city fell into hunger because they had no money to buy food; on the other hand, a large number of products in the countryside were destroyed.

While William III was on his way to Chang'an, the news from Berlin was getting worse and worse.

"Please arrange for me to meet with Chairman Lin immediately!"

William III issued instructions to the German Embassy, and soon he received a reply, "Chairman Lin will hold talks with His Majesty the German Emperor in the Weiyang Palace."

The German government sent a long telegram from Berlin, hoping to open up the market for German goods. The American market was finished, and if the Union, the world's largest market, could be obtained, the problems Germany was currently facing would be solved immediately.

The Alliance was carrying out its third five-year plan, which required a large amount of machinery and equipment. The quality of German machine tools was similar to that of the Alliance, and many people believed that German-made machines were of better quality. Indeed, Germany had some unique secrets in machine tools.

If the Union had opened up its markets, it could have saved Germany's collapsing economy.

"If the League extends a helping hand, it will gain the friendship of the German people."

In the Weiyang Palace, William III seemed very sincere, but Lin Yongchang was unmoved. "Your Majesty, the Alliance is willing to live in peace with Germany, but it cannot be at the expense of the interests of our country."

The Union built a large number of heavy machinery processing plants in the second five-year plan. What Germany can make, the Union can also make. Even if tariffs are not taken into account, the machinery and equipment manufactured by the Union will be cheaper. What reason is there to buy German products?

With the exception of a few products, the Alliance needed almost no industrial products from Germany.

Chapter 827 Mutual Trust

It's not that there is no trade between the People's Revolutionary League and Germany, but it's mostly spontaneous behavior among the people. Some things are sold cheaper in Germany, and the European part of the League may not have the corresponding factories. Shipping goods from Asia may be more expensive, so they will purchase from Germany.

In recent years, the federal government has purchased from Germany the most advanced machine tools, high-temperature and high-pressure reactors needed in the synthetic ammonia industry, and some chemical intermediates and other products.

Most of what the Alliance sold to Germany were oil, iron ore, tungsten metal, etc. Germany's demand for ore and oil was increasing, but the total trade volume between the Alliance and Germany was gradually declining.

[People's Revolutionary League] The basic principle of trade with Germany is reciprocity. We sell as much as we buy from Germany. Germany imposes high tariffs on the Union's high-tech products such as cars, televisions, refrigerators and radios, so the Union also raises tariffs on a large number of German goods. Trade barriers are something that the Germans can use, and the Union can use them as well.

Now William III asked the People's Revolutionary League to lend a helping hand, but how should he help? Should he unilaterally lift the tariff barriers and allow German products to occupy the Union's market? Or should he provide Germany with a large interest-free loan, or even simply give Germany a large sum of money?

Lin Yongchang asked William III, "What kind of assistance do you need?"

Before William III came to the Weiyang Palace, he had received a telegram from Berlin, "What Germany needs most now is the market, followed by technology."

"The alliance can open its market to Germany and transfer technology to Germany, but we demand equal treatment and corresponding returns."

If the People's Revolutionary League and Germany open their markets to each other, Germany's industry will definitely be greatly impacted, and the products of the alliance will overwhelm a large number of German companies like a tide.

Lin Yongchang did not believe that the German government would agree to terms similar to the Sino-US Treaty of Amity and Commerce. Even if William III agreed, the German government would not agree. The size of Germany and the People's Revolutionary League was too different. If the tariff barriers were removed, the German Empire would soon become a republic of the People's Revolutionary League.

Rather than seeing that outcome, the Junkers would definitely rather give it a go and have another world war. Militarism is brutal oppression at home and constant expansion abroad.

Now that the economic crisis has come, the German Empire will inevitably move towards military expansion and preparation for war. This has nothing to do with William III's personal stance and political inclinations, but is an inevitable choice of the German national will.

"William, please listen to me. In this era, as long as there are problems in the country's economy, the people will be dissatisfied. Then they will either go to the extreme left, like the French Commune, to establish a left-wing centralized government; or to the extreme right, like Mussolini in Italy. It's either the extreme left or the extreme right. It's difficult to take the middle road, and it will not please both sides."

William III: "But the alliance......"

"It is true that the Union is not like the French Commune.

It is not extreme left, nor extreme right like fascism, but the Union has 4000 million square kilometers of land. As long as the central government is not in chaos, other crises can be solved in a way. "

Fascism is essentially a bourgeois monopoly model disguised as socialism, with a weird mixture of racial system and militarism. Overall, it is a step backward in history. It is an enemy of populism, and an extremely vicious one at that. Therefore, it can be said to be extreme right.

William III had a strange idea in his mind: if Germany could also have 4000 million square kilometers of land and 8 million people, why would it have to worry about the economic crisis? Just increase the number of troops and flatten the whole world.

Looking at the current territory of the People's Revolutionary League, how can the Germans not be jealous? The German high-ranking officials have always believed that they were betrayed. If the People's Revolutionary League had not suddenly changed its attitude at the end, the German army would not have stopped at the gates of Paris, nor would it have swallowed a bitter peace.

Even though William III wanted to have a good relationship with the People's Revolutionary League, he couldn't help but covet the vast territory of the alliance. He was silent for a moment, then said: "Germany's current problem is that the market is small and the products are overstocked..."

Lin Yongchang is very concerned about the changes in Germany. The United States is on the other side of the Pacific Ocean, and whether it is good or bad, the alliance can't do anything about it, and it won't have much impact on the alliance.

Germany is different. There is a long border between Germany and the People's Revolutionary League. If the Ottoman Republic and the Republic of Madras are included, the border is even longer. If there is any change in Germany, the alliance will be directly affected.

Meeting with William III was not to save Germany's collapsing economy. It could not be saved. Even if it could be saved, why? Chairman Lin never said that Germany and the League were in a husband-and-wife relationship, and the families of the League's cadres did not buy large-scale businesses in Germany.

Lin Yongchang urgently met with William III in order to stabilize Germany, so as to avoid disruption to the Third Five-Year Plan of the People's Revolutionary League. It was inevitable that Germany would embark on the path of militarism, but as long as it did not attack the alliance first, it would be fine.

Far-right Germany and Italy are about to start expanding their military forces and preparing for war. The Anglo-French alliance has already embarked on this path from the beginning, so let them go to war. Of course, the idea is always good, but it is hard to say what it will turn out to be.

".........In order to enhance mutual trust between the Alliance and Germany, the Alliance Central Committee decided not to build military airports or military fortresses in western Poland. The main force of the Polish military district will be deployed to the east bank of the Vistula River............"

Lin Yongchang only hoped that the Germans would not see this as a sign of weakness on the part of the Alliance. ".....I hope Germany will stop supporting the Polish rebels and intervene in the dispute between Romania and the Alliance..."

After the end of World War II, Poland was stirring up trouble everywhere, wanting the three Baltic countries to become independent and form a maritime federation with Poland. This was supported by both the British government and the instigation of the German Empire.

As a result, the Central Committee of the Union was irritated by the Poles' small actions and simply mobilized 120 million troops to destroy Poland, whose historical status was questionable. Poland was once again destroyed and disappeared.

After the Polish rebels were eliminated, the Union swept away Polish separatists, shot thousands of them, and sent more people to Siberia to grow potatoes. However, Germany has been secretly supporting Polish Zionists.

The intelligence agencies under the German General Staff recruited many Poles. After being trained, those Poles entered the interior of the Allies and engaged in espionage, sabotage and assassination activities, which once caused great harm and the poisonous influence still remains to this day.

Chapter 828: Economists Don’t Understand Economics

Poland has a population of tens of millions, and resistance movements have been rising and falling. Under the suppression of the League, the open resistance activities have become much less, and can be seen only a few times a year, but the covert resistance has always existed. It is nothing for the Poles to sabotage. Through investigations, interviews, and fingerprint detection, most of those who sabotage can be easily caught.

But those Polish spies who were gathering intelligence everywhere were not so easy to catch. Generally speaking, people became spies either for money, or because they were caught with evidence, or because of their beliefs, and many Polish people believed that they became spies out of hatred.

Spies who spy for money or women are easy to deal with, and those who spy because they are threatened are also easy to deal with. The latter two types, spies who spy because of faith and hatred, are the most difficult to catch.

Among the spies captured by the League over the past decade, a large proportion were Poles, in addition to separatists from the three Baltic countries, Russian aristocrats and Hungarian syndicalists.

Lin Yongchang had no intention of stopping Germany from rushing down the path of militarism. He just wanted Germany to reduce its support for Poland and the Baltic resistance organizations. He did not even ask the German intelligence agency to hand over the list of spies.

The work on the secret front was important, but it was impossible for the Germans to give up a truly valuable spy, so Lin Yongchang simply did not mention it.

William III listened quietly to Lin Yongchang's words, and then made a suggestion, "How about an alliance between our two countries?"

"Ok?"

Lin Yongchang asked in surprise: "Alliance?" This proposal really surprised him.

"Yes, the People's Revolutionary League and Germany, these two powerful countries, will join forces to completely

Change the world!"

"............." To be honest, Lin Yongchang had considered this possibility, but he couldn't do it. Sacred values, or ideology, are very important and are the foundation of a country.

For a giant patchwork like the Alliance, sacred values/ideology are even more important. If there is a problem with sacred values/ideology, different ethnic groups in different regions may immediately fall apart.

How did the Soviet Union in another time and space end? Internal corruption was the main problem, and the collapse of ideology was the direct cause. Khrushchev completely denied the Stalin model at the conference and severely criticized Comrade Stalin, shaking the foundation of the Soviet Union. The unbreakable alliance was heading towards disintegration.

Although the Human Revolutionary League is not as radical as syndicalism, it also aims to eliminate poverty, eliminate the gap between the rich and the poor, and achieve world peace. If the Human Revolutionary League forms an alliance with Germany, which is ruled by Junker landlords, then what is the "land reform" in the country? Should the land distributed to the peasants be taken back? Should the nobles be invited back?

Land reform is the basic national policy of the Human Innovation Alliance, and is one of the fundamental sacred values built around Lin Yongchang's thoughts. If this national policy is denied, the Alliance building will lose a load-bearing wall. It may not be noticeable for the time being, but something will definitely go wrong over time.

The People's Revolutionary League would never sign a military alliance with the German Empire, and at most become a strategic partner. William III thought that Chairman Lin would be very interested in his proposal, but he was not. Instead, the other party proposed a new term, "strategic partner?"

"Strategic partners refer to cooperation between advanced domestic and foreign enterprises that can bring financial resources, advanced technology, and management experience to enterprises through joint ventures or other means, enhance the core competitiveness of enterprise technological progress and the ability to expand domestic and foreign markets, and promote enterprise technological progress and industrial upgrading."

"......" William III frowned and thought for a while, "Are you saying that you agree to provide loans and transfer technology to our country?"

These days, the great powers are all playing with trade barriers. Unless they use cannons to conquer a place, they rarely open their markets. It is also difficult to develop the domestic market. Capitalists always tend to squeeze out the maximum profit. They pay as little as possible. It is best to let those workers bring their own dry food to work. If they can collect money in return, it would be even better.

But this is impossible. When there is no food to eat, no matter how strong the German government's suppression is, the workers will rise up and make trouble. In that case, the cost of suppression will be too high. It is better to pay the workers some wages.

Whether in Germany or France, or in the United States of America across the Atlantic Ocean, the workers' rights and interests were won through repeated struggles, bloodshed and sacrifice, and were never given by capitalists and the government.

"There is a lot to learn from German industry. The alliance and Germany can share what they have and learn from each other. The alliance is in its third five-year plan and cannot provide loans, but can cooperate on some projects."

William III did not think that cooperation could solve the problems Germany was currently facing, but it was better than nothing. "Does it include military cooperation? If possible, I hope to cooperate in the research and development and manufacturing of tanks and aircraft carriers."

The Germans were the best at making super-heavy artillery, better than the Allies. The famous "Paris Cannon" was the first of its kind and was one of the best in the world at the time. It was said that the German army was secretly developing a super cannon with a larger caliber and longer barrel in order to destroy the defenses and fortresses of the French Commune after the outbreak of war.

It is also possible that it was intended to destroy the fortress of the Alliance. The People's Revolutionary League inherited the Russian legacy, including the Sevastopol Fortress, which had been continuously built and reinforced for more than a hundred years and was as solid as a rock. It was the mainstay of the Alliance on the Black Sea.

"Germany's current problem is not military, but economic. I think it would be better for the two countries to strengthen cooperation in the civilian manufacturing industry."

William III was somewhat disappointed. He had shown great sincerity and wanted to get closer to the alliance, but his good intentions were wasted. Chairman Lin promised a lot, but it was of no use to Germany. It could neither solve Germany's economic problems nor enhance Germany's military strength.

In other words, he could not recite poetry, otherwise he would have chanted two lines: I originally turned my heart to the bright moon, but the bright moon only shines on the ditch.

“The alliance must first consider the people of the alliance, and then help other countries solve their problems.”

Lin Yongchang seemed to have seen the dissatisfaction in William III's heart. "Your Majesty should trust the German economists. They understand economics best and will come up with a solution."

Do economists understand economics? Perhaps. But some people also say that economists do not understand economics, just like sociologists do not understand society. Those so-called experts and scholars are just summarizing some past experiences, and the summaries are not very good, and then they learn from each other.

Chapter 829 Take Care of Yourself First

The current situation of the Alliance is somewhat similar to that of the British Empire after the Boer War. The territory of the country is already very large, and the cost of further expansion is too high. [People's Revolutionary League] Unlike the British Empire, most of the territory belongs to the mainland and needs to be invested and constructed, rather than

Like the British Empire, only England and Scotland are the mainland, and all other places are colonies.

The British Empire could plunder its colonies, but the League could not. The League Central Committee followed Lin Yongchang's doctrine and aimed to improve people's living standards. Even in places like Poland and Lithuania, it also carried out land reform and construction.

Out of consideration for future wars, the Human Innovation Alliance did not develop heavy industry in Poland and Lithuania, but built a lot of flour mills, textile mills and other light industrial factories, and repaired a lot of roads and bridges.

According to the plan of the General Staff, if a war broke out, Poland and other places might be destroyed, but even if the light industrial assets were burned down by the war, they could be quickly rebuilt.

Heavy industry is different. It takes a long time to build and has a slow effect. For example, the current steel mills in the alliance are already the third generation of steel production technology, using blast furnaces with coal injection or oil injection technology. It takes a year and a half to build the factory alone, plus the time for three connections and one leveling and debugging equipment, and running-in. A steel mill takes at least three years from planning to production. It is not safe to place heavy industries such as steel mills and heavy machinery production plants on the border close to Germany.

The Alliance only developed light industry and agriculture in Poland and other places, which greatly improved the living standards of the local people and dissipated the resistance of the local people. Ten years after the liberation of Poland, the only people who still insisted on being hostile to the Alliance were those whose land was confiscated, whose interests were damaged, or those who had blood feuds with the Alliance.

Most Poles, Lithuanians, Latvians, and Estonians feel that life is pretty good now. As in other parts of the Union, most of the people in these places are farmers, and as long as the state collects less taxes, they think life is good.

However, both investment and construction cost money. Although current investments will pay off in the future, the alliance is now carrying out its third five-year plan, upgrading its industries while developing the military industry, and building in Australia, Southeast Asia, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and India. The central government of the alliance is already stretched to the limit and has to spend every penny carefully.

The [Third Five-Year Plan] cannot be stopped. If we want to solve the current problem of insufficient funds, we can either suspend construction in one or two regions, such as temporarily stopping construction in Sri Lanka and India; or use the old method - issuing bonds.

After careful study, the alliance decided to use the old method - issuing bonds to raise funds for construction. At the same time, the alliance spent a lot of hard currency on international purchases. The money raised by issuing bonds is RMB, which cannot be used in countries like the United States and Germany. If you want to buy equipment from abroad, you have to pay real money.

An economic crisis broke out in the capitalist world, and all commodities fell in price. At this time, it only cost one-half or even one-third of the usual price to buy equipment and machines. Gold and silver are natural currencies, which are of course good, and they are even better for buying equipment to promote the development of productivity.

The People's Revolutionary League issued another round of bonds, and the country's overall debt reached 300 billion yuan, setting a new record. But compared with the losses in the United States, this debt is not enough.

In the month after the New York stock market crash, the United States lost $300 billion, or about 600 billion yuan. The United States was in mourning, and in this tragic era, the alliance across the Pacific was willing to buy machinery and equipment with real money, which immediately attracted many troubled American companies.

From 1920 to 1929, hourly wages for American workers rose only 2 percent, while factory productivity soared 60 percent. At the same time, farmers' real incomes were falling due to falling agricultural prices, taxes, and rising living costs. In 1910, each farm worker earned less than 40 percent of what a nonfarm worker earned, but by 1929, the proportion was less than 30 percent. This rural poverty was a serious problem because the agricultural population accounted for one-fifth of the total population.

The weakness of the U.S. banking industry was the final factor that contributed to the stock market crash of 1929. At the time, there were many independent banks operating, and some banks lacked the financial strength to weather the financial storm. So when one bank failed, panic spread, and depositors rushed to other banks to withdraw their deposits, setting off a chain reaction that destroyed the entire financial structure.

This economic crisis was more severe than the previous ones and had a greater impact. After the news that the People's Revolutionary League was willing to use gold and silver to purchase machinery and equipment spread, long queues formed outside the embassies and consulates of the League, all of whom were there to sell their products.

Almost new equipment was now sold at half the price, and some companies were even responsible for contacting shipping companies and delivering the equipment to your door. The phone of the Alliance Embassy in the United States was about to be blown up, and those who were originally dissatisfied with the Alliance put on smiling faces and wanted to sell the machines and other goods in their hands for a good price.

Some grain merchants hope that the alliance will not only buy machinery and equipment, but also some agricultural products such as soybeans and wheat. However, the alliance has grain producing areas such as Ukraine, Poland, Henan and Hebei, so why would it need to import large quantities of grain from the United States?

The alliance does not have much foreign exchange, so it is now using real money to buy machinery and equipment.

Gold and silver. We can't say that when there is a bumper harvest at home, we still have to use gold to buy food from the United States, right?