legendary trader

Chapter 175 Price War

Chen Fan originally planned to stay at home on weekends and not go there. In the hot summer, staying in the swimming pool and air-conditioned room is the most enjoyable.

But a seemingly ordinary piece of news on the news blew Chen Fan out of his leisure and ease.

The source quoted foreign media news: "Saudi Arabia increased production by 80 barrels per day, and oil-producing countries have actually fallen into a prisoner's dilemma."

When I saw the report, Chen Fan was slumped on the sofa. He had been in the swimming pool for a long time. Although he was cool, his body was also softened.

At first, Chen Fan didn't notice anything. After the new broadcast, Chen Fan belatedly thought about the value of this news. He jumped up from the sofa and hurried upstairs into the study room. He turned on the computer to check the value of the news. Price chart.

Chen Fan has been watching the financial market recently, and he is still very sensitive to the prices of bulk commodities like crude oil.

Crude oil prices have been running along a relatively standard downward channel since the year before last. Although it is very slow, it also shows that the current crude oil market actually has slightly more supply than demand.

This time, Saudi Arabia, a major oil producer, did not know what to do, but chose to increase its position in oil. It is conceivable that the smooth operation of oil may be disrupted, and there may be violent fluctuations in the short term.

Chen Fan was worried that he had no investment direction, so he came to give him a pillow when he was sleepy, and couldn't help being excited.

The crude oil price chart displayed on the computer was consistent with Chen Fan's impression. Chen Fan started to look up the information again, but unfortunately, he didn't find any useful information, but it didn't bother him.

Chen Fan immediately called Mr. Liu and briefly explained the matter. Mr. Liu immediately agreed to contact the staff of the research department to work overtime, and to collect and sort out the information Chen Fan needed before noon tomorrow, Sunday, and call him over.

After hanging up the phone with Mr. Liu, Chen Fan contacted Zhang Yang and Zheng Xiaopang again, and went back to the company to work overtime tomorrow to study whether it is necessary to short crude oil.

Originally, Chen Fan had been very resistant to shorting the market because he had no confidence.

However, with the huge gains in short selling in the U.S. stock market, Chen Fan's self-confidence began to explode. He felt that as long as his judgment was correct, there was nothing terrible about short selling.

Seeing that Chen Fan suddenly changed his previous laziness and became fierce, Liu Ying was very surprised. Standing at the door of the study, she heard Chen Fan's continuous calling, and waited for Chen Fan to stop calling. into the study.

"Why? Is there an opportunity in the crude oil market?" Liu Ying asked with a smile.

Chen Fan nodded and said: "I feel that there may be a chance to do it, but I don't dare to confirm it yet. I will talk about it after reading the information tomorrow."

"What about your stock positions? You still have a lot of futures contracts that have not been closed." Liu Ying said with concern.

Chen Fan smiled, "Put the stock there first, and the futures contract will start closing next week. If it doesn't work, let the exchange settle it. There will be no more index futures in the short term. I judge that there is no big market."

"Is Xiaopang still doing gold? Will there be any problems in the battle?" Liu Ying is still a little worried about Chen Fan's plan to invest in an all-round way. "Now the international crude oil price is about 18 yuan, and Saudi Arabia will increase production a little bit. How much it can be affected, it is estimated that it will be suppressed to 9 yuan at most, and it is probably not the best time to participate in short selling now."

Chen Fan thought about it in his mind and said, "You'll know when the York City Commodity Exchange opens on Monday. If the jump is strong, just don't participate."

The next day, Chen Fan and Zheng Xiaopang didn't arrive at the company until almost 11 o'clock, and Mr. Liu was already waiting in the office.

Chen Fan took over the materials sorted out by the research department from Mr. Liu, looked at the long analysis of market supply and demand above, and chose to skip the conclusion part directly.

The researchers apparently also analyzed the causes of Saudi Arabia’s production increase plan, and deduced the possible Domiller effect it may bring to other oil-producing countries. The final analysis concluded that the impact on oil prices will be very severe in the short term, optimistic view That is, the trading price of international oil prices may drop from the current 20 yuan to 15 yuan, and the pessimistic law directly sees it below 12 yuan.

Chen Fan looked up and saw that Zheng Xiaopang and Zhang Yang were still looking down at the information, and did not disturb them, but turned to Mr. Liu and asked: "Old Liu, you did a good job, how are the staff from the research department adding now?" Sample?"

Mr. Liu said: "Thank you Mr. Chen for your praise. At present, the analyst team has established a framework, and the follow-up will mainly be the formation of a senior analyst team."

Chen Fan thought about it and said, "I looked at the plan you made some time ago. At present, you are mainly poaching people, right?"

Mr. Liu nodded and said: "Building the framework is mainly to recruit people, so that they can be quickly formed. Except for a few very good analysts, the main focus will be on newcomers in the future, and they will be cultivated slowly."

Chen Fan smiled and said: "This is very good. I said I wanted it last night, and it was made in one night. Where are they? Are they still down there?"

Mr. Liu nodded and said, "Everyone is resting below."

Chen Fan thought about it and said, "Then let's go down and take a look. By the way, has the company's welfare been formulated?"

Mr. Liu thought about it and said: "It should be there. Human resources and finance seem to have relevant clauses. The documents should still be with Mr. Liu."

After waiting for a while, after Zhang Yang and Zheng Xiaopang read the information, Chen Fan asked, "What do you think?"

Zheng Xiaopang curled his lips and said, "I watched it after you called last night. I guess it will be difficult for you to open a position if you dive directly into the water on Monday."

Zhang Yang also echoed and said: "I think it will be difficult to open a position tomorrow. I guess the bulls just want to run for their lives now. Who would dare to resist. Although it is only an increase of 80 oil, the crude oil market itself is only in a weak state of balance. If it breaks, short-term speculation looks beautiful, but if you can’t build a position, you can only watch it fall.”

Chen Fan didn't answer right away, but looked at Mr. Liu with a questioning look, and said, "Old Liu, you can also talk about your own views."

Mr. Liu came to the company last night, and the report he completed with the analysts below should be said to have surpassed Chen Fan and others in his understanding of the crude oil market.

Mr. Liu thought for a while before saying: "We also had discussions when we sorted out the information. Most of them thought that the possibility of grasping this opportunity was very small. The main reason was that Mr. Zheng and Mr. Zhang said that it was difficult to open a position."

After a short pause, he continued: "If there must be a chance, the high probability is that the analysis report said that the market has entered a pessimistic state, that is, the oil price has fallen below the 15 yuan mark, and the work of opening positions should be completed here. But to be honest, 4 Only one of the analysts has such a judgment, and I think the chances are slim.”

"They think that the oil price may open at 15 or 6 yuan on Monday, and it will be in place in one step?" Chen Fan asked.

President Liu nodded.

Chen Fan picked up the analysis report on the table, looked at it and said: "The reason for Saudi Arabia's production increase this time is because of Venezuela's oil industry development plan that started several years ago. But Saudi Arabia’s oil production cost is much lower than that of Venezuela, and since it wants to attack Venezuela’s investment plan, I estimate that Saudi Arabia’s target price for oil prices should be based on Saudi oil production costs, and Venezuela has production costs, such a range.”

(End of this chapter)