legendary trader

Chapter 176

After listening to Chen Fan's analysis, Zheng Xiaopang, Zhang Yang, and President Liu were all lost in thought.

It took Zheng Xiaopang a while to say: "Saudi Arabia's actions seem to be of no benefit to him, right? Increased production has led to a drop in prices, and the final profit is still estimated to be that much? What can he get?"

Both Zhang Yang and President Liu looked up at Chen Fan, waiting for his explanation.

After thinking about it, Chen Fan said: "Ten years ago, Saudi Arabia also suddenly announced an increase in crude oil production, which caused the price to drop from more than 30 yuan to more than ten yuan. He didn't get anything. The only thing he got was the so-called pricing power of international oil prices. But it is worth noting that the collapse of oil prices at that time hit the booming North Sea oil industry at that time, resulting in the death of a large number of investment plans.”

Zheng Xiaopang immediately said: "You mean that Saudi Arabia's goal is to stifle the crude oil industry that Venezuela is engaged in. The purpose is to limit crude oil production, and through this to gain a dominant position in international oil prices?"

After finishing speaking, Zheng Xiaopang himself shook his head and said, "Oil prices include North Sea oil price and York City oil price. These two are the basis for pricing international oil prices. Crude oil prices are controlled by several big countries. Who is Saudi Arabia?"

“Saudi Arabia can’t really set the price, but it can control the price in the short term. If, I mean, if the oil price falls below the cost of crude oil extraction in Venezuela, then the investment in Venezuela’s crude oil industry will inevitably be cut or even cancelled.”

Chen Fan looked around at several people before continuing: "I guess Saudi Arabia's purpose is to limit crude oil production. Only when the production is controllable can Saudi Arabia intervene in international oil prices at critical times. You think, if Saudi Arabia does not suppress oil prices at critical times, then After a large amount of new crude oil production is formed, international oil prices will still fall with the increase in crude oil production. But if Saudi Arabia lowers oil prices before these new crude oil industry investments, so that these capitals cannot see the profits after investment, then who will Will you continue investing?"

Zheng Xiaopang nodded and said, "It makes sense. If I were the boss of Saudi Arabia, I would also suppress oil prices when the major oil producing countries were about to launch new oil production projects, forcing them to give up investing in new projects."

说完这话郑小胖立马来了精神，拿起分析报告看了看主要产油国的开采成本后才说：“那样我们可以在15、6米元的价格快速建仓, 把油价做空到12米元以下。要是这个观点成立的话，国际油价下跌空间就在7-12米元这个范围内。”

Lao Liu said at this time: "Saudi Arabia has made several moves to suppress oil prices. Their purpose has been noticed by analysts long ago, but because they never respond, they can't get an accurate answer. This time, the short-selling agency probably will A lot, and I think their analysis is similar to what we said here, but if a lot of institutional money is killed in it, the risk."

Chen Fan nodded and said, "Indeed, this investment is especially important for judging the reversal point of international oil prices. If you make a wrong judgment, you may really lose money."

Zheng Xiaopang said nonchalantly: "Let's not be greedy, just open a short position at 15 or 6 yuan, and start to reduce the position after it falls below 12 yuan. This way the risk is small. Although the profit may be less, but It doesn't matter, as long as you make money."

Chen Fan smiled and said, "Then there's no need to be so timid. It will be fine to decide when to enter and exit according to the changes in the market."

The investment plan has been decided in this way, and the market will enter the short market when the market opens tomorrow morning.

The next morning, Chen Fan came to the company, and when it was almost 8 o'clock, Zhang Yang and Zheng Xiaopang also came.

However, Zheng Xiaopang only said to come over at 8 o'clock, and ran to see his gold team. Only Zhang Yang sat and chatted with Chen Fan in the trading room.

Looking at the price of the September crude oil contract of 9 yuan, Zhang Yang asked Chen Fan: "Where do you think it will be opened today?"

Chen Fan thought about it and said: "The high probability is above 16 yuan. It is estimated that after the opening of the market, the liquidation will suppress the price. Now the bulls are probably on the verge of liquidation."

When it was close to 8 o'clock, Zheng Xiaopang trotted all the way into the trading room, found a seat and sat down, waiting for the opening of the York City Exchange.

17.45 yuan, the opening price of crude oil futures was a bit beyond Chen Fan's expectation, but Chen Fan started the trading robot to pursue orders downward without the slightest hesitation.

This time Chen Fan set up an order to open a short position in one direction, directly facing the buy order below and placing the short order at two prices lower.

However, it was obviously a little late. The oil price had only gone down in a straight line and then leveled off. It was not because of the strong support of the buying order, but because it entered a state of circuit breaker. The price at this time was 17.42 yuan.

"I'll wipe it, rely on it." Zhang Yang on the side only placed one empty order and saw the market suspend trading, and cursed in a low voice.

Zheng Xiaopang cut to the backstage to have a look and said, "Not even one lot was sold."

Five minutes later, when the market started trading again, oil prices plummeted again, and a fishing line was directly smashed to 5 yuan before a slight rebound began.

During the entire decline, Chaofan Investment was very lucky that no one lot was traded.

Zheng Xiaopang smacked his lips and said, "I don't seem to be lucky today, you guys should be more aggressive, brothers."

During the rebound process, the trading volume was greatly enlarged, and a large number of trading orders were liquidation orders. The long liquidation order and the short profit liquidation order began to collide violently at 16.40 yuan.

Taking advantage of this opportunity, Chaofan Investment began to quickly open positions and short positions. York City Exchange light crude oil futures use 1000 barrels per lot. Although some trading platforms have launched small contracts in order to stimulate transactions, Chen Fan and the others are certified by the state. Formal trading platforms can only use the exchange's standard contracts for transactions.

After more than ten minutes, the number of new orders began to decrease, and most of the liquidated orders had already left the market, and the rest should be after paying the margin, and the market fell into a short-term equilibrium state.

Zheng Xiaopang blinked and said: "I didn't expect that 16 yuan can open a position, and I have built so many positions. Is there a trap?" '

Chen Fan was stunned after hearing this, and then said: "Probably not, no one is vigorously shorting now, because most of the capital positions are estimated to be insufficient, and it should be attracting long positions now."

Zheng Xiaopang pointed to the computer screen and said: "They all fell by 3 yuan, there should be a counter-draw."

"The panic fell, and there were no transactions during the whole process, but there should be a rebound, but it is estimated that 17 yuan will not be reached. After all, the market must be bearish now. It is estimated that the bulls will enter the market after it falls below 15 yuan." Chen Fan said. .

The September contract price of light crude oil gradually rebounded to 9 yuan, and the short positions of Chaofan Investment are also increasing.

But the price was pushed up more because of the reduction of short orders. It seems that there is not much funds for active shorting. This made Chen Fan start to hesitate a little. He will not be really caught by Zheng Xiaopang. Bar?

(End of this chapter)