Shanghai is prosperous

Chapter 221 Why Do House Prices Keep Rising?

Yang Lei was just starting to eat soybeans. When he heard Wang Yiyuan's question, he smiled and said, "Old Wang, the question you asked can be regarded as a large subject of systematic research and several sub-subjects.Oh, the question is too big, I can't answer it all at once.

Ren Ziping said, "Yang Lei, aren't you usually good at talking, and someone sent you the so-called little Zhuge of the Pacific?"
Yang Lei said again, I also heard from Xiao Ren that you, Mr. Wang, are also doing research on real estate, so I would not dare to play tricks on you.

Wang Yiyuan clinked a glass with the two of them, wiped his mouth with a paper, and said, we are just talking casually today, I am not from a major, and I still have to learn from you when I talk about it.

Ren Ziping thought for a while, and said, that's fine, anyway, we are free today, and if we have time, we ordinary people might as well come to boldly analyze the current real estate market.

Wang Yiyuan smiled and said, I see it this way, whoever said the most reasonable and best words today will not have to pay for it.Okay?
Everyone agrees.Wang Yiyuan said, then I will go ahead and start, as a throwing brick to attract jade.In fact, many of us do not understand real estate until now, and we are always adjusting and controlling.But the actual results are known to everyone, so what is the reason for the repeated trials and failures of regulation and control, without any results?
Ren Ziping said that the real estate market can be divided into two phases. Before the end of March 05, from a policy perspective, the government was invigorating and activating the real estate market. In 3, a lot of policies were issued. Since the end of March this year, China's real estate market has actually entered a period of regulation and control.

Yang Lei said, is there any bubble in China's real estate market?I personally think that from a rational point of view, China's real estate market has bubbles.After 2000, the increase in house prices was much higher than the increase in disposable income, and it continued.

Ren Ziping went on to say, but until now, generally speaking, the transaction volume has soared in the past few years and the housing prices have generally risen, and they have repeatedly hit record highs.So why is this happening?

Yang Lei said, I personally think that the root cause of China's real estate problems is not real estate, but urbanization, the GDP-oriented economic development model for many years, etc. There are too many complicated factors mixed in it.Therefore, to solve the problems in real estate, only prescribing medicines to real estate will always be a headache, and it is impossible to solve any problems.

Wang Yiyuan said with a smile, in this way, among these complicated factors, let's list the most important points, and see how many can be listed?

Yang Lei said, in my opinion, the first reason is that our country has entered a period of rapid economic growth in the past few years, especially after 00.Our income is also growing, albeit unevenly.

Hehe, the media always likes to compare the static house price to income ratio, so as to measure our house price is high.Ren Ziping said, in fact, because of the rapid growth of income, our dynamic housing price ratio is in a process of continuous decline.

Yang Lei said, in addition, the economic polarization is relatively large, that is to say, there is a group of high-income people, far exceeding the growth of housing prices, which also supports China's high housing prices.In this process, the relatively low- and middle-income earners are farther and farther away from the purchasing power of the market.

He went on to analyze that the third reason is that we are a country with a large population and are in the growth period of urbanization.During the peak period of population birth, it is equivalent to contributing the population of a medium-sized country to the world every ten years, so the demand for housing is still very large.You can see that now basically the older generation, even the older generation, are helping their children buy houses.

Wang Yiyuan nodded and said that in the process of urbanization, different cities are uneven.I think the main battlefield of China's real estate market in the future will still be in central cities.This is the same structure as Japan in the 80s and [-]s, Tokyo in Japan, and Seoul in South Korea.

Ren Ziping agreed.He said that there is another reason why real estate is so prosperous. The country has invested heavily in urban infrastructure in recent years. It is vividly said that the government is pouring RMB into the land.Whenever a real estate company acquires a piece of land, the house price and land price will soar overnight.

What you said makes sense. Come on, let's have a drink first.The three continued to drink.

Yang Lei said, looking back, it is also closely related to the background of the currency.Our base currency is heavily invested.At the same time, there is overproduction in the physical field, so their competition is cruel, and they have to use exports to digest the remaining fields.Foreign currency is brought in through exports, and foreign currency brings a surplus of domestic currency.

Ren Ziping said with a smile, this kind of surplus has also caused real companies to transfer funds to the asset field, because it is easier to make money, and everyone is speculating in real estate.

If there is more money, things will naturally increase in price, which has never become reasonable since ancient times.What goes up today is closely related to the currency.Wang Yiyuan also laughed and said, besides, private capital investment channels are limited, bank stocks and real estate, among the limited sources, the safest and visible one is real estate.

Ren Ziping said, I think the protection of the real estate industry by the regional government is also an important factor.Our fiscal revenue is food finance, and our construction depends on real estate. The more developed the region, the better it knows how to manage land.

Hehe, this is natural. Yang Lei analyzed that the income from land transfer fees has long been the main source of income for local cities, and it is also the backing for the large-scale infrastructure construction in cities around the world in recent years.

Yang Lei said, in a sense, I think the biggest resistance to real estate regulation is not developers, but local governments.We feel that local governments will still be highly dependent on real estate. The impulse of local development is the engine that pushes up real estate. How easy is it to restrain it?
Ren Ziping said, in addition, how the government positions the housing industry is actually unclear. Many times I feel that the government has not established a long-term mechanism for real estate.

He analyzed that during the economic crisis, the housing industry should be used as a weapon to boost the economy, and when housing prices are too high and real estate is overheated, it should be used as a livelihood project.When the market is hot, the emphasis is on people's livelihood, and when the market is cold, it is a project to stimulate the economy.

Wang Yiyuan thought for a while and said, the government's visible hand and the market's invisible hand have been in the game process.The real estate market is currently under pressure. With the demand unresolved, behind the deserted situation, the demand has not really been suppressed. As long as there is a slight relaxation, the energy will definitely rebound and increase. The huge demand is coming Waiting for the trend.

(End of this chapter)