The days when I sold coal in the coal mine

Chapter 572 We Mainly Talk About Problems

We will not roll the names of whoever spoke in the middle, but Zhang Xiaobei synthesized everyone's opinions and formed several consensuses overall.

First of all, everyone believes that the overall coal industry has a positive outlook.

The first meaning, everyone judges: In the next two years, the monopoly power of resource integration will still be greater than market power.

The coal industry's policy of "mainly integrating and supplementing new construction" has not changed. The integration and reorganization of production factors such as resources, assets, technology, and manpower have always been the theme.

Through the integration of coal resources, the reorganization of coal enterprises, and the expansion and strengthening of coal enterprises, it is possible to increase the degree of monopoly in the coal industry.

It can be concluded that in the next two years, the monopoly power of the coal industry will still be greater than the market power.Especially in terms of price, coal enterprises are easy to form a price alliance, and may form a monopoly price that exceeds market forces.

The second meaning, everyone judges: the contradiction between the ever-expanding market scope of coal products and the limited resources fully determines that the demand for coal is still strong.

Clean coal technology is also booming, becoming an emerging industry that demands coal.

At present, the main development areas of national clean coal technology are:
Coal washing and processing can improve the quality of coal products and increase the proportion of coal washing.This means that some impurities will be digested on the spot.It means that coal will become cleaner and meet the needs of environmental protection.

Briquette, improving the way of coal combustion.This fertilizer plant can be used for civilian purposes, and the combustion rate is increased, which means that the utilization efficiency is improved.

Increase the proportion of electricity converted by the coal industry.As mentioned above, the method of long-distance ultra-high voltage transmission.The power generation from Binzhou has been sent to Shanghai, what else can't be solved on the spot?
Application of coal water slurry technology.Coal water slurry technology has now begun to be popularized in the chemical industry, and the cost is really very low.

Coal gasification technology; development of coal liquefaction technology.

That is, coal-to-gas and coal-to-oil mentioned earlier.It does not make money, but it can improve utilization efficiency.

Comprehensive utilization of coal gangue and fly ash.Gangue bricks, coal ash waste heat power generation...

Our conclusion is: With the improvement of coal application technology, the application scope of coal will be greatly expanded in the future.

What you see is that coal is used by the whole people. Although the utilization rate is high, the scope of utilization is wide.

The growth rate of coal utilization will not change, the reason is that we have more coal and less other energy sources.

In addition, everyone also judged that the status of coal in the energy field may be further improved, and the supply of coal will continue to affect the long-term development of the national economy.

Lack of oil, less gas, rich coal, this is a reality of the energy structure.Natural resource conditions determine that coal will be the most basic and important energy resource in China, which also means that the coal industry will continue to have a bright future.

Secondly, everyone analyzed that the prospect of the anthracite market in the next two years will be stable, and the price will rise steadily.

The first basis is that the current situation of anthracite supply and demand is tight.

Anthracite resource itself is a scarce species, which belongs to small coal.

There are only four production areas in the country, and the output is still very limited.

Coupled with the strength of security control, the crackdown on illegal coal has increased, and the obvious shortage of railway transportation capacity has caused timely supply problems for "transporting coal from north to south" and "transporting coal from west to east".

This is a supply-side factor.

What about the demand side?According to the data of the past few years, the growth rate of anthracite consumption has exceeded 12% every year, and all of them are domestic.

Moreover, with the strengthening of environmental protection control, anthracite power plants and anthracite steel plants have even appeared, and new coal chemical industries using anthracite have emerged.

On the one hand, it is used for combined cycle power generation of gas turbine units, and at the same time, it is used to produce high value-added products such as methanol, acetic acid, and dimethyl ether.

Another aspect is the development of MTO/MTP (methanol to olefins technology) projects.

The second basis is data support.Anthracite supply and demand forecasts.

After the integration, the total number of coal mines in Tang Province does not exceed 1000, and there are even fewer anthracite coal mines.

Mongolia, Qin Province and other coal-producing areas are also promoting the integration of large groups.

据预测，2011、2012、2013年的全国原煤产量预计分别是32亿吨、33亿吨和35亿吨。

The growth rate is between 5-8%.

The output of anthracite is 5.0 million tons, 5.1 million tons and 5.2 million tons respectively, and the growth rate is only 2%.

The expected output of anthracite in Tang Province is only 1.6 million tons, 1.7 million tons and 1.8 million tons, and the growth rate is the fastest, and it is only about 5%.

而2011年、2012年和2013年需求预测，在需求增速放缓的基础上，大概在5.2亿吨、5.3亿吨和5.5亿吨。

This data shows that demand is still greater than output to a certain extent, that is to say, supply and demand are close to balance, but there is still a small amount of shortage.

The third basis is that everyone mentioned the specific situation of Jinsheng.

The first is the proportion of Jinsheng Group in the province's national anthracite coal.

Tang Province is the largest anthracite producing province in the country, accounting for about 30% of the country's total anthracite production.

It is estimated that in 2011, Binzhou's anthracite output will account for about 50% of the province's total and about 15% of the national anthracite output.

It is estimated that Jinsheng Group's production capacity of more than 1000 million tons per year will account for 11% of Binzhou City, 5.6% of the province's total, and about 2% of the country's total.

This is the status of Jinsheng Group in the anthracite industry. As a county-level enterprise, it is really amazing.

In addition, compared with the quality of national anthracite, Jinsheng Group currently mines No. 3 anthracite of Tang Province Formation.

It has the characteristics of low ash, low sulfur, high calorific value, high mechanical strength, high carbon content and good selectivity.

It is favored by users in chemical industry, electric power, metallurgy, construction and other industries at home and abroad. It has strong product characteristics and resource advantages, and is a high-quality product.

Of course, we are not the best in the country, and the best resources are in Ning Province.

This is an industry problem in the market, and the market is relatively wide.

In addition, everyone also talked about some shortcomings, such as the restrictions on railway transportation, and so on.

It sounds like factors that have nothing to do with the market or may appear occasionally.

So when you hear this, it's an extremely good rhythm in the market, so why worry about it?
Within three years, the current state can basically be maintained with slight fluctuations. Is that still burning high incense?

Even if you beg your grandpa to sue your grandma, he won't be able to come.

However, if this is the case, is it necessary for Zhang Xiaobei to hold this meeting?

"Well, very good, everyone just said a lot, and I probably listened to it, and memorized it. Generally speaking, everyone is full of confidence in the market." Zhang Xiaobei said here, and scanned the audience with his eyes. of elites.

"And not only have confidence, but also very strong confidence, I asked everyone to talk about the situation of this year and next year, good guy, I even analyzed the situation in 2013." Of course, this is what the children want You have to work to convince yourself that the market is going well, Vice President Zhang, don't worry about it.

"But folks, the market is ever-changing and complex. We are right to be confident, but we need to be aware of potential problems in the market."

"Anyway, anyway, I have never heard of such a continuously high temperature market, let alone seen it."

"So, we are mainly talking about problems."

Zhang Xiaobei didn't discourage the children's enthusiasm, but he couldn't make them blindly optimistic.

So at this moment, Zhang Xiaobei tapped the table lightly with the knuckles of his right middle finger and index finger.

(End of this chapter)