Agricultural giant since 1983

Chapter 452 Gambling Agreement
In the previous negotiations, China will make the following concessions and commitments on agricultural market access: first of all, it is mainly tariff concessions, and China promises to continue to reduce the average tariff on agricultural products from the current 19% to 2005% in 17 , of which important agricultural products dropped to 14.5%.

For example, tariffs on beef, pork, poultry, citrus, grapes, apples, vegetables, almonds, hazelnuts, and pistachios will be significantly reduced.

Except for bulk agricultural products, most agricultural product imports will cancel quantitative restrictions and implement a single tariff. For agricultural products subject to quota tariffs, the tariff within the quota shall adopt a low tax rate policy; To reduce the tax rate accordingly.

The second is to liberalize some agricultural product markets and gradually expand the access of bulk agricultural products such as wheat, corn, rice, and cotton to the Chinese market.

The third is to gradually eliminate the state-run monopoly. According to the promise, the Chinese government will retain the state-run foreign trade system for agricultural products such as grain, cotton, edible vegetable oil, sugar, and tobacco leaves during the transition period. However, my country has not promised to restrict foreign businessmen and foreign capital from entering the purchase and sale of agricultural products such as grain and cotton. field.

At the same time, after the completion of the transition period, my country will have to liberalize the import and export trade of agricultural products in accordance with the requirements of the WTO, and give up a certain proportion of agricultural product trade such as soybean oil, wheat, rice and cotton to non-state-owned enterprises including foreign-funded enterprises. In the future, Arowana will occupy more than half of the market in China.

The fourth is to cancel export subsidies. China has promised to join the WTO not to provide export subsidies for any agricultural products, especially corn, rice, cotton and other products.

Fifth, implement the WTO animal and plant quarantine standards, and strictly implement the WTO inspection standards in the trade of agricultural products such as wheat, fruit and meat.

From the above aspects, we can see that the core of China's accession to the WTO is to reduce tariffs on agricultural products, open the agricultural market, dismantle non-tariff barriers, eliminate state monopoly, etc.; this has brought opportunities to the domestic agricultural product market and agricultural production , also poses challenges.

The advantage is that you can use international agricultural resources to adjust the domestic agricultural structure. Simply put, you don’t need to rely on the country for everything. You can use domestic land and other agricultural resources in areas with higher efficiency, and then import domestic needs from abroad. In this way, complementary advantages are formed, thereby reducing domestic agricultural pressure and readjusting more land for restoring natural ecology.

It can also introduce foreign advanced technology to improve the output and quality of domestic agriculture and improve the comprehensive competitiveness of agriculture; improve the export environment and export a large number of domestic superior agricultural products, such as livestock and poultry, vegetables, fruits, horticultural products and so on.

Everything has two sides. Although joining the WTO can bring various benefits, it will also bring many shocks. First, the production of agricultural products will be reduced. The prices of many agricultural products in the international market are lower than domestic prices even with tariffs. These products enter the country on a large scale. , is a good thing for consumers, because they can buy more products at a lower price, but it is fatal for producers, who either give up the production of this crop, or simply give up agriculture and specialize in other industries.

Li Lei has a lot of data from later generations in his mind. The output of domestic agricultural products has decreased the most and has the greatest impact on vegetable oil. In 2004, soybeans ushered in the highest production of 1740 million tons in history, but soon the domestic soybean industry ushered in a heavy blow. After a crushing defeat in the soybean war, the national soybean output plummeted to 2007 million tons in 1279. You must know that the sales volume of soybean oil and soybean meal during this period has been rising, while the sales volume of products has skyrocketed, but the output of raw materials has been falling. Then production Where do the raw materials of the product come from?It must be imported.

At the same time, multinational companies are also rapidly entering the Chinese market. On the one hand, market competition has been intensified, forcing domestic competitors to improve their technology and make long-term progress; .

For these, Li Lei needs to make preparations in advance, so after the Spring Festival, he came to the capital again, first met with the leaders of COFCO, China Grain Storage and other enterprises, and presented detailed data to warn them that after joining the WTO, the domestic agricultural Those impacts that will be faced, especially in the soybean field, must be paid attention to as a focus, and preparations must be made in advance.

"In 96, the price of spot soybeans could reach 3000 yuan per ton, and the futures market even had a high price of 3500 yuan per ton. Common people could make money growing soybeans, and many people happily called soybeans golden beans; In 1700, due to the impact of imported soybeans, the price of soybeans continued to drop. The spot price once fell below 1800 yuan per ton, and the futures price also fell below 1800 yuan per ton. Although it has risen recently, it is at most [-] yuan per ton More."

"Maybe some people think this is a good thing. The price of soybeans is cheap, and we can spend less money to buy soybeans, but this phenomenon is not normal! The planting area is constantly decreasing, and domestic soybean production has also hovered at a low level for a long time. The main reason for the price is imports. American soybeans are cheap, even with the cost of shipping and tariffs, the price of soybeans shipped to China is still lower than that of local soybeans, and the oil yield is higher! "

"However, from a historical point of view, the four major grain merchants do not do good deeds. Their ultimate pursuit is to control pricing power in order to gain higher profits and influence, so sooner or later they will make a fuss about soybeans, and we There are too few means to deal with the offensive now, and there were policy restrictions in the past, and after joining the WTO, policy means will not be easy to use anymore!"

"In this way, we have to rely on ourselves. If we want to compete with the four major grain merchants, we must have cards to play, and these cards are funds, soybeans, and shipping capacity." Without money, you can't buy soybeans, and without soybeans, you can't resist short buying and short selling. , and if there is no transportation capacity, even if there are soybeans, they will not be able to be put on the market, so these three things are indispensable.

"If we can win this battle, we will be able to keep the pricing power of soybeans. Otherwise, we will have to let the four major grain merchants slaughter us! If people want to raise prices, they will raise prices. No matter how high the increase is, we have to grit our teeth and endure it." , and soybean oil, soybean meal and other industries will be controlled by them!"

Li Lei glanced at COFCO's leaders and added another piece of news, "At the end of last year, Wilmar International acquired Kerry Grain and Oils, and then merged with its domestic subsidiary Yihai to form the Yihai Kerry Group. This is what they plan to do. It is a sign of a large-scale attack. Wilmar International has ADM among its major shareholders. At that time, ADM's cheap soybeans, coupled with Wilmar International's oil extraction technology and sales network, will not be easy for Luhua or Fulinmen. , if we can’t stand it, the edible oil industry will also fall.”

"Then there was an increase in the price of soybean meal, an increase in the cost of the farming industry, and a sharp rise in the prices of pork and chicken. It seems that in the short term, it has taken a lot of advantages, but in the long run, these will all be returned!" The main reason for the sharp rise in pork prices in the future is There are two reasons. Pork production is reduced in the event of an epidemic, or feed costs increase.

"We are also preparing for the impact we will face after joining the WTO, but as you know, our main task right now is to maintain the safety of staple food, so we still have to focus on wheat, rice, and corn, and other crops will also do the same. Some preparations, but if the things you mentioned happen in the short term, we may be a little powerless, so we can only say that we will try our best!" The leader of China Grain Storage sighed, their strength is far from being as strong as in the future, and they can While ensuring the safety of staple food, a large number of soybeans are absorbed and stored.

"So we have to work together. Now we are not without advantages. At least we have figured out the ideas of the four major grain merchants, and our preparations can be hidden, which is equivalent to the enemy's secrets; The gap will definitely exist and will become bigger and bigger, but the main share cannot be handed over to European and American countries. Argentina, Brazil, Russia, and Ukraine are also cooperation partners that can be won; at the same time, investment in technology must be increased to eliminate The four major grain merchants and Monsanto have a monopoly in the fields of soybean breeding, pesticides, and chemical fertilizers; then we can also purchase and lease land overseas to grow soybeans.” Li Lei has been doing these things before, but he alone It's not enough to do it alone.

"There are also other oil crops planting and purchasing work. Soybeans are not the only ones that can extract oil. Sunflowers, rapeseed, peanuts, sesame, cottonseed, etc. can all be used. Some places are not suitable for planting soybeans, but they are suitable for planting other oil crops. These The land can also be used! At the same time, when purchasing overseas, we can try our best to diversify and use these oil crops to limit the rise in soybean prices."

These tasks can be carried out in a two-pronged manner. Sinograin and COFCO contact through official channels, while Li Lei and other private enterprises can negotiate with soybean producers and purchasers in other countries through private channels, and sign procurement and supply contracts, so as to weaken the four major grain merchants. Impact.

"Finally, we have to pay attention to the futures market." The battlefield of the soybean war is not limited to physical transactions, and the futures market is equally important. At present, China's soybean futures are mainly traded in Shanghai and Dalian. Shanghai focuses on imported soybeans, while Dalian Futures Exchange is Serving soybeans in Northeast China.

Compared with the futures manipulation capabilities of the four major grain merchants, the level of the domestic team is far inferior, and the various rules and regulations of the domestic financial market are not standardized. Many people rely on this to make a fortune, such as Li Lei The Tang Wanxin I met before, there are many such people in the futures market.

If this problem is not dealt with properly, I am afraid that in the future, there will be a scene where the physical trading market barely resists, but the futures market is completely defeated. In this case, the war will still be lost.

Fortunately, there is still time to promote the standardization of the futures market and do a good job in risk defense; at the same time, Li Lei's New Century Investment Company has trained a group of excellent technical and psychological qualities after years of fighting in the international futures market. Let them take the lead, at least technically they will not lose to the four major grain merchants.

The meeting lasted for a long time. Li Lei explained the possibility of the soybean crisis with detailed information and solid data. The leaders of several state-owned related enterprises were persuaded by him. Then they found the leaders above and asked them Give an early warning.

Although China's strength today is far from being as strong as it will be in the future, it is a big country after all. If it is prepared in advance, it will not be so easy for the four major grain merchants to win; European and American companies have failed before, and they were once defeated by the Soviet Union. Have you taught me a lesson?In the future, he also ran into a wall in the hands of China Grain. He wanted to operate China's staple food, but was directly thrown out by China Grain with a large amount of inventory. In the end, he lost all his money and had to withdraw in embarrassment.

It is now 2001, and the soybean war took place in 2004. If we start preparations three years in advance, we may be able to withstand this attack.

Throughout 2001, in addition to routine work, Li Lei almost devoted most of his energy to meeting the impact of WTO accession, using various methods to improve the comprehensive competitiveness of his subsidiaries and strengthening overseas layout. We are facing various shocks, but this is also a good opportunity to enter the international market. China has relaxed restrictions on foreign investment, and WTO member states will also relax restrictions on Chinese investment. They just take advantage of this opportunity to go overseas and build a more complete enterprise architecture.

To become an agricultural giant, relying on the domestic market alone is far from enough. It must be deeply integrated into the international market. After so many years of accumulation, Huinong has accumulated sufficient advantages in many fields such as feed, chemical fertilizers, breeding, and food processing. , You can go to the international market to wrestle with those giants!

The layout in Southeast Asia and Central Asia in the past few years is just some preliminary attempts, and now we can make great strides into the markets of other countries, such as Ukraine, Russia, Argentina, and even African countries. These places have huge potential waiting to be developed.

In the second half of the year, the Chinese people received good news one after another. On October 10th, at Wulihe Stadium in Shenyang, Yu Genwei scored a goal to help the Chinese team beat Oman and get a ticket for the 7 World Cup. Huinong smashed the Chinese team The investment under the plan has achieved rich returns, and the sales of Jianlibao and Wandashan milk have also increased significantly.

Then, the Fourth Ministerial Conference of the World Trade Organization held in Doha, Qatar formally adopted a resolution to admit China as a full member of the WTO.

At this time, Li Lei also won the CCTV bid king again at a price of more than 2000 million yuan. Last year, it was almost the same price. He was also won by Li Lei. Continue, and increase investment in advertising and marketing in other channels.

After entering the WTO, the domestic dairy industry will also face challenges from foreign-funded enterprises, and this challenge came earlier than Li Lei expected. Several foreign-invested companies obtained admission tickets to the domestic dairy industry market through a VAM agreement.

(End of this chapter)