Agricultural giant since 1983

Chapter 462 The War Begins

The outbreak of the soybean war reached its most intense stage in 2003, but now, in 2001, the prelude to this war has already started, but most people have not realized it; the four major grain merchants are very good at long-term layout , They are now starting to speculate on soybeans and push up soybean prices, just for future harvests.

In order to launch an attack on China's soybean industry, a series of preconditions must be met. The first is policy. If the Chinese team imposes restrictions on the import and export of soybeans, then no matter how powerful the four major grain merchants are, they will not be able to dominate the Chinese market. The conditions have been loosened. In order to join the WTO, China had to make many concessions in the agricultural field during the negotiations. Staple grains such as rice and wheat are still under control, because the safety of staple grains is related to the fundamental security of the country. Soybeans, for the time being. no more.

With China's official accession to the WTO, all the promises made before have to be fulfilled, so the soybean market was forced to open up, giving the four major grain traders a chance to use their means.

The second is the increase in demand. Now China can produce about 500 million tons of soybeans every year. If these soybeans can basically meet the needs of Chinese consumers, it will be useless to have more soybeans in the hands of the four major grain traders.

However, in recent years, the domestic per capita meat consumption has increased rapidly. In 1980, the national average meat consumption was only 13 kilograms, but last year it exceeded 4000 kilograms. Now the total population of China is close to [-] billion, and each person consumes an extra three Ten kilograms of meat add up to nearly [-] million tons. The extra meat consumption is definitely not enough to rely on free-range farming. For example, intensive farming will consume a lot of feed. The total amount of these feeds is calculated in units of hundreds of millions of tons. .

In addition, there is vegetable oil. In 1979, the total consumption of vegetable oil in the country was only 166 million tons. By last year, this figure had reached nearly 500 million tons, an increase of almost ten times, and soybean oil accounted for nearly half of it. Based on the average oil yield of domestic soybeans of 16.5%, oil extraction alone is enough to consume all the soybeans produced in the country.

In fact, Li Lei himself is also accelerating the increase in soybean consumption, because the production of dairy products also needs to consume soybeans. One kilogram of milk requires three to five kilograms of feed, which usually contains more than 1000% soybeans, and this piece consumes another 30.00 million tons of soybeans.

Even without considering other soy products such as tofu and bean curd, China needs to consume at least 3000 million tons of soybeans every year, which is a gap of 500 million tons. More, and this gap will continue to expand in the future.

Because China's economy has risen and is currently in a period of rapid growth, the income of Chinese people will increase in the future, and their demand for meat, vegetable oil, and dairy products will continue to increase. The current per capita meat consumption is 500 In the future, it can be increased to 3000 kg or 4000 kg. Now the sales volume of vegetable oil is 1000 million tons, and in the future it can be increased to 2000 million tons or 3000 million tons. The current consumption of dairy products is [-] million tons, and it can also be increased in the future. Increase to [-] million tons, [-] million tons.

In order to achieve these goals, a large amount of soybeans must be consumed. An increase in per capita consumption of one kilogram is a gap of several million tons of soybeans. According to the changing curve of the land, China's soybean imports will definitely continue to increase in the future. It is not impossible to increase from the current 500 million tons to 3000 million tons, 5000 million tons, or even break through [-] million tons.

In addition to policy and demand, prices must also be considered. They also ship soybeans to China to make money. Losing money cannot be done!They also have great advantages in this regard. The genetically modified soybeans developed by Monsanto and other seed companies are far superior to Chinese soybeans in terms of planting cost, yield, and oil yield. Unloaded at the port and sent to the oil mill, the final price is still much lower than that of domestic soybeans, and they are still profitable.

If the four major grain merchants can maintain policy trade, they can also make money, but this does not meet their expectations. What is the meaning of monopoly?It is not for the pursuit of excess profits. Since they have monopolized more than [-]% of the national soybean trade, they will never be satisfied with conventional profits, but must pursue excess profits. For this reason, they will never be afraid to launch a war.

Therefore, shortly after China joined the WTO, the four major grain merchants began to act, and the soybean war has entered the prelude stage. food crisis.

What exactly is the food crisis?Many people intuitively think that food shortages lead to crises. This is actually true, but it does not cover all food crises, because there is another kind of food crisis called a virtual food crisis. The main factor that can determine the price of food supply in the international market today is the United States. The food policy, the actions of the four major grain merchants and financial speculators, they can cause false food shortages by formulating policies, hoarding food to cause shortages, and speculating on food prices, creating crises and then profiting from them.

In the future, the familiar garlic and beans are actually a fake food crisis. Is the skyrocketing price of garlic and mung beans really due to insufficient supply?Actually not, the supply of garlic and mung beans on the market can fully meet the needs of consumers, but some people have hoarded a large amount of garlic and mung beans, artificially creating a supply shortage. price goes up.

The same is true of the measures taken by the four major grain merchants. Their ally Monsanto was the first to act. Previously, Monsanto provided free high-oil and high-yield soybeans developed by them to farmers in China’s main soybean-producing areas. Li Lei also solemnly warned against this However, at that time China had already released restrictions on soybean seeds, and had not formulated regulations on restrictions on genetically modified activities, so we could only watch farmers happily receive free high-yielding seeds from Monsanto, It used to cost money to buy seeds, but now you can get seeds without money. Who would not accept such a good thing?

A few months later, the harvest of this batch of soybeans was successfully completed, and the yield was indeed much higher than last year. The soybean farmers either wanted to save their own seeds, or they were going to ask Monsanto to continue asking them for free seeds, but at this time Monsanto directly asked them Frustrated, they appealed to the WTO, claiming that these farmers had misappropriated Monsanto technology products, which constituted an infringement, and they must stop planting this soybean.

Monsanto has already obtained key patents, and this appeal is also in full compliance with WTO regulations, and there is no way to save genetically modified seeds, so these farmers can only choose other seeds.

Monsanto’s timing is very precise. The time of appeal coincides with the time when China’s main soybean producing areas are about to sow seeds. Many soybean farmers are unprepared for this. They cannot find so many alternative seeds at once, so they can only give up soybeans and reform. Planting other crops, so this year's total soybean acreage in China will definitely decrease.

The four major grain merchants immediately announced this information, and attached their analysis. China’s soybean imports have been increasing in recent years. Now that this situation occurs again, it will definitely import more soybeans next year. Future soybean prices Definitely will improve.

The information was quickly fed back to the futures market. Financial speculators caught wind of the news and quickly bought long orders in the futures market, which quickly raised the price of soybeans in the Chicago futures market from 415 cents per bushel to 627 cents per bushel.

This alone is not enough, so the four major grain merchants continue to adopt various means to increase domestic optimism on the soybean industry. They provide the country with low-priced high-oil soybeans to attract a large number of investors to build oil extraction plants. A large number of oil mills appeared.

The price of soybeans provided by the United States is 15.00% lower than that of domestic soybeans, and the oil yield is about 5.00% higher. You must know that every time the soybean oil yield increases by one percentage point, you can earn 150 yuan more per ton. These oil mills buy soybeans at a price It's cheaper and more oil is squeezed out, it's literally a money grab.

As a result, many investors ignored Zhang Xiu's warning in "Food War" and flocked frantically to major port cities to spend money and build oil extraction plants, hoping to make a fortune. The four major grain merchants also provided them with With a lot of help, the equipment and technology to build an oil mill were easily available.

Under such circumstances, China's domestic oil extraction capacity will soon usher in an explosion. The combined oil extraction capacity of all oil extraction companies has exceeded the sum of domestic vegetable oil demand. In other words, whether these companies can make money now , the key is no longer in production capacity, but who can get enough soybeans. With soybeans, they can continue to make money. If they don’t have soybeans, they will lose all their money. Equipment maintenance costs are indispensable.

Not to mention that there are still many people who do not get loans from banks, but get money through other channels. The money is not so easy to get. Once the oil extraction plant shuts down, they will not be able to make money. There is no way to repay the debt without money, and they absolutely cannot afford the consequences of not paying the money.

All the above measures are for one purpose, which is to strengthen the domestic soybean industry's dependence on American soybeans. Once the country can no longer do without American soybeans, it is time for them to harvest; Have to spit it out twice.

Li Lei knows this very well, and he is not idle. He has also adopted various methods to prepare for the final battle. A large amount of ammunition will definitely be needed at the moment of the decisive battle. He is hoarding ammunition,

There are two types of ammunition for this war, soybeans and funds. Seeing that the soybean market in the Chicago futures market is optimistic, he also asked the traders in the new century to mix it up. On the one hand, he used this opportunity to make money and hoard funds; It is to increase the cost of the four major grain merchants to speculate on soybean prices. The more funds they spend on this, the less the share that can be used for decisive battles in the future.

For soybeans, it is mainly through cooperation with China Grain Storage to build more soybean storage warehouses, and secretly hoarding soybeans so that they can be thrown out at critical times. The main sources of these soybeans include the soybeans he planted in Kazakhstan and the saline-alkali land in China. Salt-alkali-resistant soybeans grown.

Soybeans from China’s main soybean-producing areas and Brazil’s soybeans are basically under the supervision of the four major grain merchants. Large-scale entry and exit will definitely attract their attention. Kazakhstan is not a major soybean-producing area, and it is located in Central Asia with inconvenient transportation. Even if the four major grain merchants pay attention to Kazakhstan, they pay more attention to their wheat and barley production, and Kazakh soybeans are not among their focus points.

In the same way, there have been no successful cases of large-scale cultivation of soybeans in saline-alkaline land in the world before. Therefore, in the knowledge of the four major grain merchants, it is difficult to guess that Li Lei can actually change soybeans from saline-alkali land, so they Certainly not prepared for this.

He Weimin and the others sacrificed a lot for this matter. Originally relying on their contributions in the field of saline-alkali resistant soybeans, they were able to publish many heavyweight articles and strive for the National Science and Technology Progress Award. However, in order to catch the four major grain traders by surprise, Li Lei temporarily Suppressed the articles that had already been written, and did not help them win national awards.

Of course, Li Lei had already analyzed these for them, and He Weimin and others accepted it after they understood it, and even comforted Li Lei in turn, "Dong Li, if the failure of the four major grain merchants can be used as a basis for these papers Endorsement will definitely be more convincing, and it will be easier to win national awards!"

This is also the return of Li Lei's long-term emphasis on R&D personnel. After so many years in Huinong, these researchers can use the best equipment and enjoy the best treatment. Looking at the whole country, they cannot find a more comfortable place than here; The bosses of other companies only know how to draw cakes, and He Weimin and others will not be so straightforward in their promises.

There are also actions in South America. He has already purchased farms, fleets and warehouses in Brazil. If he does nothing, it will definitely arouse the suspicion of the four major grain merchants.

So Li Lei asked the people in the Brazilian branch to make a big purchase in Brazil, and kept participating in auctions and auctions of various farms. At the same time, he also negotiated with many farms and wanted to order their products. soybeans.

Naturally, the four major grain merchants would not let him get what he wanted, so before China's soybean war began, they had a wave of small-scale firefights in Brazil.

But in fact, Li Lei's goal is not here. In addition to Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, Bolivia, Ukraine and other countries are also rich in soybeans, and they can stock up some secretly.

(End of this chapter)