this man is not calm

Chapter 519 The Confusing Future

Old Jin's concerns are understandable. These days, there are many smart people who can see that petrochemical energy prices are about to surge. Given that domestic electricity prices are unlikely to rise significantly, the value of hydropower, wind power, photovoltaic power, and nuclear power is beginning to emerge.

Coal-fired power generation remains the mainstay of the global energy sector, but as low-carbon and environmental protection requirements become increasingly stringent, restrictions will inevitably increase.

Natural gas power generation in Western Europe is booming and is about to enter its peak period.

However, since it is also a type of fossil energy, classifying natural gas power generation as a new energy source simply because it emits less carbon and reduces pollutants is still somewhat controversial.

"Economic globalization is the strongest driving force..."

After a moment's thought, Kim Sang answered frankly.
"The progress of human society largely depends on the efficient use of natural resources... especially fossil fuels. The more innovative the use, the more valuable it becomes. But in reality, technological development has clearly entered an unprecedented bottleneck period, let's put it this way..."

Kim Sang, leaning back in his recliner, rolled over and explained in an even more comfortable position:

"Despite the constant emergence of scientific and technological innovations around the world and the rapid economic development brought about by the active World Trade Organization, there have been no truly groundbreaking discoveries or disruptive inventions that have had a significant impact on the world for a long time."

The theory of relativity has been around for more than half a century, but controlled nuclear fusion is still fifty years away from technological maturity and commercialization.
Advances in semiconductor chips also rely on advancements in existing technologies, simple technological improvements, and iterations of existing achievements, without any substantial progress.

Even in the fields of theoretical physics, chemistry, and mathematics, it seems that we have entered "garbage time" ahead of schedule.

Measuring how good a company is is extremely difficult, as standards are hard to quantify. However, judging whether a company is about to fail is very easy. Sudden tightening of attendance, emphasis on weekly and monthly reports, tightening of benefits, restrictions on reimbursements, or numerous meetings that have no real substance are, frankly speaking, just "decorating turds on turds," creating problems where none exist, and grasping at straws in desperation.

As we enter the 21st century, the world will enter a new phase, and the achievements of the past two centuries of industrial revolution will be realized in the next two decades.

Because there is no substantial progress, we can only keep "combining and rearranging" existing achievements to maximize the value of current scientific and technological achievements.

Just like gasoline and diesel engines, which have developed for more than a hundred years, they have clearly entered a "dead end". The equipment is becoming more and more complex and precise, but its practicality and durability are generally poor. The only solution is to set up barriers, raise the threshold, and defend the patent moat to maintain the advantage of the first movers.

The same phenomenon occurs in almost every industry and every place, including the IT industry in which Jinshang has made a heavy investment. Whether it is PC Internet or mobile Internet, the essence is the innovation of business models. The real technological foundation was completed many years ago. The so-called great development is basically concentrated on the progress of materials chemistry and process technology, and the "technology tree" derived from it.

The most significant progress has been made in photovoltaics, lithium batteries, solid-state batteries, and hydrogen fuel cells; however, the progress in coal deep processing, petrochemicals, and steel metallurgy is even less remarkable, with little change compared to half a century ago, except for the discovery of some additives, catalysts, high-efficiency catalysts, and special alloys.

Kim Sang-he chatted with the others present, explaining a lot in fits and starts, but the meaning was clear.

On the eve of the world entering a phase of "garbage time" in human civilization, the petrochemical industry, which has entered a bottleneck period and can even be said to have stagnated, remains an indispensable mainstay. However, under the cross-border wave of new energy, it is bound to undergo the test of "transformation".

"The power generation efficiency of photovoltaic materials is still some distance from the theoretical level, but they already have considerable commercial value. The rest is to promote and deploy them, and spread the costs through mass production, so that the price will drop to one-tenth of what it is now. At that time, the whole society will undergo a dramatic change."

Regardless of what happens abroad, Jinshang is certain to experience significant development domestically.

"There are many people who can make this judgment, but their level of optimism varies."

Recalling some past events, Jin Shi earnestly shared his thoughts.
"Anyway, you have money, so go ahead and do whatever you want. Some of our relatives, old friends, and business partners are also very interested, or their children want to go into this line of work."

"They're all about making money off trending topics; not many of them are actually doing anything worthwhile."

"It's all the same. In your words, the opportunity has arrived, but only you have the ability to conduct systematic analysis, develop a strategic investment plan, and invest heavily to seize the high ground."

In this industry, there are people more famous than Jin Shang, but those fancy boasts have little substance, and many are even just scams to make money.

What percentage of the domestic market do you think new energy vehicles will account for?

"Forty percent, that's just right. It saves costs, meets low-carbon and environmental protection requirements, ensures energy security, and appropriately reduces operating costs."

Petrochemical fuels are largely refined into gasoline and diesel for use as power sources. However, they are not only fuels for burning, but also crucial chemical raw materials, which are indispensable in almost every industry.

Since that's the case, gasoline and diesel, these "byproducts" that have no greater use than "feeding" engines, must have somewhere to go.

Protecting nature, reducing fossil fuel consumption, and lowering carbon emissions does not mean we will stop using gasoline and diesel in the future, but rather that we will use them in a cleaner, more efficient, more energy-saving, and more environmentally friendly way.

Emerging markets, led by photovoltaic and wind power, will be a key driver of innovation.

"So, how smoothly are your electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles being promoted?"

"It's alright, not bad!"

But it's not exactly good either!
Jin Shang silently sighed in his heart.

The first obstacle encountered by mandating the blending of biodiesel into aviation fuel is that this substance is difficult to meet aviation fuel standards.

Regular biodiesel is produced by refining waste oils, vegetable oils, animal oils, and even gutter oil, and then reacting them with methanol (ethanol) through transesterification to produce fatty acid methyl esters or fatty acid ethyl esters. The final product may contain glycerol byproducts, excess alcohol, and catalyst residue. While biodiesel's properties are similar to regular diesel, there are some differences. For example, its properties can change in cold environments. In recent tests, a racing team under Jinxi Culture discovered that biodiesel is prone to wax formation at low temperatures, which is absolutely unacceptable in aviation fuel.

There are also ways to improve this, such as taking the Sustainable Renewable Aviation Fuel (SAF) route. This involves using waste oils, agricultural and forestry waste, municipal solid waste, green hydrogen, and sustainably sourced methanol and ethanol. The green dye produced through hydrogenation is not the same as the biodiesel produced through transesterification.

In China, the cost of large-scale biodiesel production is high but still acceptable. Sustainable renewable aviation fuel (SAF) is a bit more troublesome, as it is too expensive. Jinshang's hopes of making a fortune through this route have been dashed. Even with various subsidies and new mandatory blending standards, it can barely break even.

The same investment is far less worthwhile than refining it into biodiesel and dumping it in Europe or selling it to domestic counterparts; it might even be more promising to keep it for our own use.

Of course, biodiesel is not without its problems. Although its swelling effect on rubber oil is not as obvious as that of methanol, it can still corrode some alloy materials and damage the engine and fuel system. Older diesel engines need to strictly control the blending ratio to below 5%, and newer products should not exceed 20%, with a recommended value of 10%.

Otherwise, the fuel system and engine system would have to be redesigned, which would be very costly.

The most serious problem is the research and development and promotion of methanol-powered vehicles.

The laboratory under Jinxi Culture compared the differences between traditional passenger cars and pure methanol-powered vehicles. Taking taxis as an example, considering the fuel price difference, proper maintenance and upkeep costs, methanol-powered vehicles are very expensive. Only when the total mileage exceeds 600,000 kilometers can the price difference of the initial cost be offset.

This essentially eliminates the possibility of ordinary users purchasing methanol-powered vehicles on a large scale. Apart from taxis and commercial vehicles, passenger cars that can be driven for more than 600,000 kilometers are extremely rare.

Unless the automotive industry's supply chain is restructured and economies of scale are used to achieve mass production, significantly reducing production and usage costs, even government intervention alone, let alone a businessman like Jinshang, would not be effective.

Of course, this doesn't mean it has no value; in specific fields and usage scenarios, it still has significant advantages.

For example, fixed-route heavy trucks, city buses, and taxis, since their prices are high, they don't take the low-price route, but compete in the high-end market where "you get what you pay for".

Buses, heavy trucks, mining trucks, and forklifts equipped with lithium titanate batteries and methanol (natural gas) engines can still be used normally in frigid northern regions where temperatures can drop to minus 30 or 40 degrees Celsius.

Expensive reason.

Only in the warmer southern regions can lithium iron phosphate batteries, dual-fuel engines, and high-pressure common rail biodiesel vehicles find their comfort zone.

"I've invested in lithium titanate, rotary engine, and HCCI engine technologies. I had no choice but to do so. The country is so big, and each region has its own realities that need to be adapted to. We can't get stuck on the details. It's just... the investment is enormous, and it's a bit strenuous."

In the southern regions, lithium iron phosphate is definitely more suitable due to its high quality and low price. In the north, ternary lithium should be considered, as it has a higher energy density and is better able to withstand the harsh winter. As for the far north, where winter lasts for more than half the year, lithium titanate is obviously more suitable because it has a long lifespan, can withstand extremely low temperatures, and is safe and does not catch fire. The only drawback is its lower energy density, but it can be used in hybrid vehicles to make up for the shortcoming.

The rotary engine has been around for over half a century. Due to its low thermal efficiency, short lifespan, and complex maintenance, it has been phased out of the passenger car market and now only exists in the sports car and racing car sector, where it is highly favored by car modification enthusiasts. However, as Jinxi Culture has begun to venture into the automotive market, it has discovered that this thing is actually quite suitable as a range extender under certain conditions.

The rotary engine is the ideal choice for range extenders due to its small size, high power output per liter, and smooth start-up.

Multiple tests showed that when the Zengcheng vehicle travels between cities and surrounding areas, less than one-tenth of the mileage is powered by gasoline. Therefore, in the combination of a large battery range extender and a small-displacement, small-tank range extender, the high fuel consumption of the rotary engine is effectively compensated. It only operates in the range of highest thermal efficiency, which is much better than the dynamic conditions of ordinary gasoline vehicles in the city with frequent stops and starts. Moreover, most of the time it uses electricity instead of gasoline, which is really ideal.

Conversely, a rotary engine of the same displacement is only one-third the size of a four-cylinder engine, or even smaller, which allows for more batteries to be placed, optimized layout, high power output, strong performance, and smooth, vibration-free start-up, making it very suitable for compact small and medium-sized passenger cars.

As for the spark plug ignition controlled compression ignition technology of SPCCI proposed by the research team, which is a compromise of HCCI engine, it combines the advantages of gasoline engine and diesel engine. It is said that the highest thermal efficiency in the laboratory can reach 50%. It is obviously going for the high thermal efficiency route, squeezing the potential of the engine, and is going for pure fuel vehicle or hybrid route. It is not very suitable for range extender.

Speaking of this, we probably have to mention that although Mazda cars are slow and congested, and don't sell well, they are serious about researching engine "black technology." They are quite persistent in making money for research and development when they don't have the money to buy cars.

"Aren't you just a 'new player' in the new energy vehicle industry? How come you've come up with so many new gadgets?"

"I can't say for sure. If there's hope, let's give it a shot. Maybe it'll work out. Anyway, cars are selling well in Zengcheng. Maybe we can go for the high-end market. As for the rest... let's take it slow."

Even the "golden finger" was somewhat vague in judging the future, so Jin Shang had no choice but to make some decisions based on his experience from his previous life and his own understanding. As it stands, the situation is not bad. For example, the rotary engine and SPCCI technology were both things that were once very popular but were quickly abandoned by the market.

The rapid maturation of lithium battery technology far exceeded industry expectations, and electric vehicles quickly became mainstream. No matter how much we try to explore the value of traditional internal combustion engines and improve thermal efficiency, it is even jokingly referred to as "finding gold in the shit," going against the trend of the times.

In Jin Shang's view, the disappearance of some technologies is not because they are worthless, but because they are not used in the right place. For example, the rotary engine is definitely not a selling point for gasoline cars, as it has too many defects. However, if it were used in the "range extender" track, it might be able to gain a foothold. The quiet exit of the SPCCI engine is more like it appeared too late and was swept away by the new wave of electric vehicles before it could find its proper place. If it were to develop towards alternative fuels, such as methanol, ethanol, natural gas, or dimethyl ether as efficient alternatives, it might have a chance.

New energy vehicles (electric vehicles) can carry so much more. Refrigerators, color TVs, and large sofas are just the surface. Traditional fuel vehicles have a limit to their power supply and cannot carry too many power-consuming machines, otherwise the power supply will be insufficient. Electric vehicles do not have this concern. Abundant power not only drives the vehicle with high efficiency, but also powers many high-energy-consuming electrical appliances, greatly improving the driving experience.

Many experienced drivers who have driven electric cars can't go back to the era of gasoline cars. The reason is not complicated: who doesn't like a comfortable and easy-to-drive new car?

Watching the father and son chatting, Nan Dabiao, who had been struggling to get a word in edgewise, finally found an opportunity.

"Ah Shang, I'm under a lot of pressure with on-the-ground promotion, and the artist management department is also packed with people. How about I place another order for you? Luxury nanny vans, commercial reception vehicles, VIP cars, multi-functional vehicles, etc. There's a lot of demand. Since they're so useful, give them a try. Anyway, they can be tax-deductible..."

"Great! With celebrities leading the way in using it, it's part of the advertising and promotion. Building brand awareness and public recognition is a long and arduous task!"

(End of this chapter)