this man is not calm

Chapter 520 The future is promising
Since it was an acquaintance who was showing up, Jin Shang felt bad about letting them suffer a loss, so he explained in detail which type of car was more advantageous in which situation.

Currently, cars are relatively common in China, but they are still not something that ordinary people can afford to own casually. Most car owners lack knowledge about car use, repair, maintenance, and other related matters. New energy vehicles are even less common and are relatively new to the public eye, so it's normal that people don't know much about them.

Under Jinshang's leadership, Jinwenhua's affiliated companies are currently focusing on R&D, contract manufacturing, and small-scale trials in the automotive and related fields.

Many models have been launched, but the truly important areas are very concentrated in the "three electrics" – motor, battery, and electronic control – which are almost equivalent to the "three major components" of traditional fuel vehicles. The so-called three core competitive advantages of color TV, refrigerator, and sofa are fine to talk about as a joke, but it would be too stupid to actually believe them.

The largest investment is in the research and development of lithium batteries, with lithium iron phosphate as the main product and ternary lithium and lithium titanate as secondary products. While a small number of lead-acid battery vehicles using battery swapping are still in use, lithium iron phosphate batteries are rapidly emerging. Ternary lithium batteries, due to the difficulty in managing thermal runaway, are only used in a few scenarios. On the contrary, lithium titanate batteries, which Jinshang does not value as much, are beginning to gain a foothold in public transportation, commuting, ports, mining areas, and industrial parks.

Especially in colder northern regions, buses in several large and medium-sized cities have begun to switch to lithium titanate batteries. Their advantages, such as shorter distances, fixed routes, and convenient charging, are a perfect fit, and the usage scenarios perfectly avoid the biggest drawback of low energy density of lithium titanate power batteries.

If used in the right context, it can still be useful.

This made Jin Shang realize that in his previous life, Ms. Dong's large-scale investment in Yinlong New Energy (which was mainly based on developing lithium titanate power batteries and expanding into commercial vehicle applications such as public transportation and commuting, and was later renamed Gree Titanium) was not due to a lack of vision, but rather because it made some sense. It was truly remarkable that it could maintain a considerable scale despite the reasonable backlog of new forces such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary lithium and sodium batteries.

While lithium iron phosphate batteries were struggling in the icy and snowy northern regions, and ternary lithium batteries were not mature enough, had poor stability, and occasionally even exploded, minibuses, buses, public buses, and commercial vehicles equipped with lithium titanate batteries were the first to "break the ice" and win trust.

If you really feel the range is too short, you can consider adding a range extender.

For vehicles with less stringent space constraints, lower load requirements, and a greater emphasis on safety, lithium titanate batteries are ideal. If space is really needed, wouldn't a rotary engine be a good alternative?
Even inventions with inherent disadvantages can become popular products if used in the right context and combined in the right way.

"Both pure gasoline cars and electric cars have obvious advantages and disadvantages. Battery swapping is just a transitional compromise. At present, range-extended vehicles are the primary target for promotion. You can think of them as electric cars that have eliminated range anxiety to a certain extent. The main option is to prioritize large batteries and small fuel tanks. Small batteries and large fuel tanks... mainly meet the needs of a small number of car owners, not the mainstream..."

“Indeed, I think Ashang has considered everything very thoroughly. After the test drive, I felt that the experience of electric vehicles is truly first-class. Traditional gasoline cars, even the top-of-the-line luxury cars, don't feel as technologically advanced as pure electric cars and Zengcheng cars…”

In response to Nan Xiaobiao's agreement, Jin Shang nodded and smiled:

"Gasoline-powered cars mainly emphasize the basic function of commuting and travel. Their electric systems are very weak. Even hybrid (non-plug-in hybrid) and mild hybrid (electric systems below 48V, small batteries) experience power loss when the air conditioner is turned on, and they simply cannot power more electrical appliances."

Products modified from traditional fuel vehicles to improve the driving experience, reduce fuel consumption, and slightly enhance electrification and intelligence are completely different from the electric vehicles that Jinshang is vigorously promoting, starting with Zengcheng vehicles. The two are fundamentally different.

"What about your company's popular DMI super hybrid? It not only supports range-extending mode but also has a series-parallel drive system, which seems pretty good."

"Wanting both, wanting everything, do you really think it's that good?"

It's not that Jinshang is pessimistic about plug-in hybrid vehicles, but rather that the first-generation product had too many inherent flaws. Engine intervention timing, intelligent power saving, driving experience, onboard computer, electronic control correction, system upgrades, as well as lightweighting and stability, all require further improvement.

Having both electric and gasoline drive systems makes maintenance and upkeep a major hassle. If it breaks down, most repair shops can't fix it and it has to be sent back to the factory. It's far less durable and economical than the simpler Zengcheng car.

It's definitely fine for regular use, but it's not as perfect as advertised.

"In most cases, a car in Zengcheng is sufficient; if you frequently travel long distances on highways with complex road conditions and don't have much time to charge or swap batteries, buying a DMI super hybrid is a good option; as for commercial cargo transport and long-distance transportation, apart from the urban taxi market, gasoline cars still have a significant advantage, and new energy vehicles are currently quite expensive..."

Not only were there differences in car prices, but oil prices were also very low at the end of the 20th century. When calculated per 100 kilometers, the cost was not much higher than that of electric vehicles and internal combustion engine vehicles that used alternative fuels such as methanol, ethanol, dimethyl ether, and natural gas.

With cheap oil prices, even with various taxes and fees, the cost disadvantage of using the product is not obvious. On the contrary, the advantage of low initial investment is very attractive.

Therefore, when Jinshang began investing in the research and development of electric vehicles, it was not seen as a threat by mainstream car companies and was simply ignored. It even attracted ridicule from some people in the automotive industry, who thought that the young rich man was foolish and had too much money, so he was messing with car companies to create "big toys" exclusively for the rich.

Whether it's electric vehicles, electric cars, hybrid vehicles, or even alternative fuels like biodiesel, alcohol fuels, and natural gas, none of them seem to have a future in this era, and they don't even generate as much hype as hydrogen fuel cells.

Before oil prices rise, discussing the feasibility of electrification and alternative fuels is meaningless; at most, it can only make a name for itself in some niche areas.

"To reiterate, the industrial chain is not mature. The entire automotive industry is based on gasoline and diesel, and has developed around the internal combustion engine. It's been around for over a hundred years, and it's already a monolithic entity. Starting from scratch is not easy!"

Kim Sang sighed from the bottom of his heart!

The rise of Tesla electric vehicles in its previous life, leading the new energy trend, was partly due to coincidence, but it was also an inevitable choice of the times.

The root cause lies in the fact that crude oil prices are simply too high. In addition, developed countries want to restrict the development rights of developing countries and strongly promote carbon emission reduction, which has forced wind power and photovoltaics to achieve leapfrog development and reduce the dependence of energy on petrochemical minerals.

Furthermore, the fact that the "three electrics" (battery, motor, and electronic control system) do not depend on the automotive industry but can achieve independent development and progress laid the foundation for their later integration into an electric vehicle.

Even so, Tesla achieved success after more than a decade of hard work, fueled by various subsidies, and its initial prices were so high that they were unacceptable, making it a luxury item for only a few.

Only after the supply chain matured did Tesla electric vehicles significantly reduce their prices, becoming a formidable force in the mainstream passenger vehicle market. After a brief, intermittent discussion, Nan Xiaobiao complained with a hint of regret:

"Everything else is fine, but the built-in devices charge too slowly, and there are too few high-power fast charging stations, which is inconvenient. Wouldn't it be more reliable to use battery swapping in the future?"

Upon hearing this, Jin Shang gave Nan Dalong a meaningful look and patiently replied:
"It seems that Xiao Biao has gained experience over the past two years and has been able to identify the key points. Let me put it this way, the battery swapping model will be very promising for the next twenty years, but for thirty years... it's hard to say! As manufacturers and operators, if we put all our hopes on the battery swapping model and don't have a Plan B, we will eventually perish."

Indeed, Jin Shang believes from the bottom of his heart that NIO, a new car company that has gone all out in building battery swapping stations, promoting the battery swapping model, and drafting battery swapping standards in its past life, is now in a difficult situation. If it does not quickly make a decisive move and catch up with other companies, it will be dragged down by the soon-to-be-obsolete battery swapping model sooner or later.

"How could that be? I just felt that spending millions to build a battery swapping station with little return and huge operating expenses seemed a bit unhealthy. I didn't expect it to be so dangerous."

"Do you think my main purpose in investing in battery swapping stations and charging stations is to pave the way for electric vehicles?"

"no?"

Even Kintoki, who didn't care much, was a little surprised and couldn't help but ask a question.

"That's partly the goal, but not the main one. If... I can integrate all the domestic car companies, quickly launch industry standards, and spend ten years investing heavily in infrastructure without any limit, there might be some hope of changing the user experience and perception. Maybe we can survive for another twenty years and find a safe place to land."

That is almost impossible.

"Land grabbing?"

Nan Dabiao tentatively asked, and Jin Shang nodded approvingly:

"Not entirely, but half right. Given that land prices in most cities, suburbs, and near roads are severely undervalued, investing in gas stations, methanol refueling stations, hydrogen refueling stations, charging stations, and battery swapping stations, as long as it can be sustained, even with huge losses, will be largely offset by the soaring land value appreciation, and there's even a good chance of making a profit—this is a projection over twenty years. Another point is that relying on battery swapping itself is fundamentally unprofitable; the disadvantages of battery leasing are too great, and in the foreseeable future, its chances of becoming mainstream are slim..."

The clever Jin Shi racked his brains, pondered for a while, and then calmly replied:

"It's safer to pursue both paths simultaneously. If you're just looking for an excuse to acquire land and wait for it to appreciate, it's not worth investing a huge amount of capital in this field. There must be other goals, such as... wind, solar, energy storage, charging, and battery swapping; integrated generation, grid, load, and storage; distributed power park transformation; or even... external power supply?"

"Green electricity direct connection! This plan will take at least ten years to take shape. Its foundation lies in the leapfrog development and rapid industrialization of wind power, photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and energy storage. My strong skepticism about the battery swapping model stems from the fact that lithium batteries and hydrogen energy may mature and be commercialized at an unimaginable speed, while the price of wind and solar power generation equipment will drop to less than one-tenth of its current price with large-scale production, and even lower than that of hydropower and thermal power..."

Relying solely on the benefit of land appreciation is not enough to provide stability and returns; it also requires a truly viable business model to support it.

Without energy storage projects for new energy sources such as wind and solar power, the operating model is roughly to store electricity at low prices during off-peak hours and sell it at high prices during peak hours. It is said to be a powerful supplement to the power grid and the city's electricity supply, but in essence, isn't it the same as "stealing electricity"?
Even if it's legal and compliant, would the mains power company willingly let itself be "fleeced"?
Without a more compelling rationale, it probably won't be so easy to implement.

"Electricity is a relatively easy energy source to transport but difficult to store. Charging stations and battery swapping stations, together with nearby photovoltaic and wind power, as well as energy storage batteries, plus electric vehicles, constitute a micro distributed virtual power plant, which is part of flexible DC, integrated generation, grid, load and storage, and dynamic peak shaving."

If an electric vehicle's battery is 20 kWh, increasing the number of batteries, combined with the existing energy storage stations, would be quite substantial.

It generates its own electricity for its own use, supplemented by the city's power grid, and participates in the overall power supply system as a large integrated entity.

The ultimate goal is to directly supply electricity to nearby customers (residential and commercial).

Between power plants and electricity customers, power can only be transmitted and distributed through the power grid. Solar photovoltaic green electricity is fine for supplying power to one's own unit or other units, but cross-entity power supply is not allowed. If power could be generated and transmitted at will, wouldn't that turn a power plant into a super energy company that integrates production and transportation?

Even if its scale is so small that its influence is extremely low, the qualification threshold is so high that it is almost impossible to reach.

Do you think you can just open a power grid company whenever you want?
Such a large country can only issue a few licenses in a few major directions, such as east, west, south, and north, based on geography and practical needs.

Traditional power plants lack the capacity and motivation to promote direct green electricity connections, allowing wind and solar power plants to sell electricity directly to the outside world, instead of having only two options: self-consumption or selling to the grid.

"You're really ambitious! I thought your proposed energy strategy was just to develop wind and solar power, sell electric vehicles, and research hydrogen energy and energy storage. I never expected this..."

Even if it was a bold idea, it still put a lot of pressure on Jinshi's wild ideas. However, considering his son's abilities and vision, he felt relieved.

The concept of direct green electricity connection is not about what it literally means; its core lies in the liberalization of qualifications.

Although it is limited to new energy power generation in fields such as wind power and photovoltaics, there is enough room for imagination. If one day, more than 60% of the energy sources in the domestic power market are green electricity, could it give rise to one or more behemoths comparable to the power grid?

All of these, such as wind and solar power plants, power generation, grid, load and storage, flexible DC transmission, smart parks and charging and battery swapping stations, are essentially laying the groundwork for the future rise of new energy.

(End of this chapter)