Rebirth of the Capital Legend

“I don’t think so,” Zhao Zhiyuan said. “First of all, the internal shareholding structure of Shuguang Shares is not good. Secondly, the position of this stock in the main line of the new energy industry chain is also very average. There are not many stocks that are related to it.”

Another point is that the active major funds in the market today have a relatively deep involvement in the new energy industry chain.

With so much capital invested in the market, it's practically impossible to profit in the short term without creating a significant upward price movement.

Therefore, let's analyze it from this perspective...

The new energy industry chain cannot be subject to the trend of "harvesting profits the next day".

On the contrary, other related concept sectors that did not see significant capital inflows today, especially those with already heavy losses, such as film and television media, internet software, and internet applications, are likely to experience a one-day wonder, despite their seemingly good performance.

As for Apple's supply chain...

I think the market will most likely continue its divergent trend, with the strong likely to remain strong and the weak likely to remain weak.

"Yes, many short-term active funds in the market today have indeed deeply invested in the new energy industry chain," Liang Jiucheng added. "I also feel that the new energy industry chain is unlikely to be a one-day wonder. As for how high this sector can go in the short term, I think we still need to see. It is still necessary to maintain a certain position and continue to monitor it. As for heavy investment... it is not too late to wait until the overall expectations of various major funds in the market for this sector become more consistent before making a move."

“That’s right,” Zhang Wei nodded. “At this stage, the opportunities on the right side are better than those on the left side.”

As the core members of the "Qilu Gang" group continued their discussion, the market trading time had already entered past 2:30 pm, with less than half an hour left before the market closed.

Following the intense market trading in the preceding period.

At this moment, the performance of the new energy industry chain, as well as the steel, coal, and non-ferrous metals sectors, is gradually strengthening.

"It seems that Shuguang Shares is truly beyond saving today."

Seeing the market trends, countless retail investors gathered on various online stock investment platforms were engaged in heated discussions. Among them, retail investors who were paying attention to or holding shares of Shuguang Co., Ltd. couldn't help but sigh.

"I really don't understand. In the main theme of the new energy industry chain, Shuguang Shares is clearly the most popular, so why can't it outperform Tianci Materials?"

"Isn't the main issue that Shuguang Shares has such a large circulating share capital?"

"Is the free float very large? What about Oriental Yuhong stock?"

"The reason why Oriental Yuhong's stock is so strong is because it has the support of President Su's 'Fuxing Road' and the continuous locking up of shares by Fuxing Road. As for Shuguang Shares, its internal shareholding structure is chaotic. Although its circulating shares are not small, there is no powerful institutional intervention to help lock up shares. As a result, the shareholding structure will not be settled, and its market trend will naturally be very different. Does this stock even deserve to be compared with Oriental Yuhong?"

"There are indeed big disagreements. I feel that buying Shuguang Shares today was a complete mistake."

"As long as the cost of buying today isn't too high, there's still a chance to make a profit tomorrow, right?"

"It's hard to say. If Shuguang Shares can't maintain its strong closing today, it will definitely open lower tomorrow, and it's very likely to open significantly lower."

"Even if it opens significantly lower, it can't be lower than when it opened today, right?"

"That's not necessarily true; a suffocation attack is also possible."

"With such a strong speculative sentiment in the new energy industry chain today, even if Shuguang Shares isn't the core leader in this sector, as a popular stock in the market, its performance tomorrow, even if it's bad, won't be too bad, given the generally positive sentiment in the main sector. Moreover... if Tianci Materials and Penghui Energy can continue to open higher and move higher tomorrow, creating upward space, I estimate that the speculative sentiment in the new energy industry chain will further improve. At that time, even if Shuguang Shares doesn't rise sharply tomorrow, it shouldn't continue to fall sharply either."

"In any case, the performance of Shuguang Shares today is clearly below expectations."

"It's not just below expectations, it's a complete waste of market potential."

"What can we do? We already bought in the morning, and now we can't sell them even if we want to."

"Oriental Yuhong's stock performance is still the most reliable. Regardless of whether the market goes up or down, it steadily goes upward, so there's no need to worry at all."

"Indeed, Oriental Yuhong is one of the most stable stocks in the entire market."

"So, it's still more useful to have President Su's seat."

"That's right. Looking at the entire market, the stocks that Mr. Su holds, regardless of whether they are currently the core hot stocks, have all performed quite well."

"Yes, Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium are also performing strongly today."

"These two stocks saw increased trading volume today, suggesting that other major institutional investors are continuously buying into these stocks at this level."

"If you ask me, these two stocks are the core forces in the entire new energy industry chain."

"That statement should be correct."

"Speaking of which, the non-ferrous metals sector today was probably driven by Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium, right? It feels like the sector wouldn't have been this strong without these two stocks. And looking at the performance of individual stocks within the non-ferrous metals sector, the best performers are indeed those related to lithium batteries."

"The non-ferrous metals sector was originally driven by the lithium battery sector."

"What about the steel and coal sectors? I always feel that the logic behind the price movements of the steel and coal sectors is completely different from that of the non-ferrous metals sector."

"Isn't the trend in the steel sector still driven by expectations of supply-side reforms?"

"Still talking about supply-side reform? Isn't this policy already a year old? Is the market still willing to buy into this recycled news?"

"It's not as simple as the supply side; I think it's more like a reversal of the industry's fundamentals."

"A turnaround in the fundamentals of the steel industry? Has the overcapacity been clearly cleared? I don't think it will happen that quickly."

"I have a feeling that the surge in the steel sector is due to mergers and acquisitions among large steel companies. Didn't we hear that Baosteel and Wuhan Iron and Steel are going to merge? In the future, these two companies will merge into Baowu Steel Group, becoming a giant in the domestic steel industry." "This news has been circulating for a long time, but there has been no concrete action."

"If they really merge, it can be described as the merger of the CNR and CSR in the steel industry."

Will this trigger a bull market? Or will it be another bull market driven by speculation surrounding the mergers and reorganizations of state-owned enterprises?

"Forget about it. A bull market, my foot! What kind of market environment is this? What kind of macroeconomic environment? What kind of liquidity environment? Where are all these funds going to enter the stock market?"

"That makes sense. The macro situation is incomparable to that of two years ago."

"So, does this mean that the boom in the real estate industry chain is a long-term negative for the stock market?"

"You could say that, since the housing market has absorbed too much liquidity."

"I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing. The booming real estate market and the booming infrastructure sector will ultimately benefit the corresponding core stocks in the stock market through solid performance. And after the core leading stocks in these core industry sectors have significantly improved their performance, they should also drive the overall market trend. Just like the current trend of the infrastructure sector, it has actually brought the Shanghai Composite Index from below 3000 points to above 3000 points."

"How much has this affected? It's far less than the real estate market's drain on liquidity and its impact on the stock market."

"I don't think the poor stock market performance is due to the real estate market siphoning liquidity. The main reason is that people lack confidence and are overly pessimistic about the future. In this situation where investment confidence is weak and expectations for the future are severely pessimistic, even if there is ample liquidity on the macro level, this liquidity will not flow into the stock market. It will most likely flow into other places, such as forming huge savings deposits, the government bond market, and the bank fixed-income wealth management market, etc."

"That's a good point. Indeed, even if macro liquidity is good, it's difficult for that liquidity to flow into the stock market when market investment confidence is lacking."

"Does that mean the market will likely remain in a bear market for a long time?"

"It will definitely take a long time. Compared to the last bull market and the one before that, the next major bull market cycle is estimated to be at least five years away. Of course, in addition to major bull markets, minor bull markets and structural market trends will most likely continue to occur in the short to medium term."

"Yes, that makes sense. Since the market is likely to maintain a structural trend in the long term, there's no need to rush into building positions or finding investment opportunities."

"There's no need to rush. There will be plenty of opportunities in the long run."

"But in terms of short-term opportunities, there are still some stocks worth participating in, right?"

"Anyway, I think there are two core themes worth focusing on in the market right now. One is the large-scale infrastructure theme, which has already formed a trend breakout pattern and the chip structure has been completely stabilized. The other is the new energy industry chain theme, which is currently being hyped up by various major funds. After all, this core theme is a core industry among the emerging industries of the future, with a huge scale, a very high ceiling, and strong support from national policies. There will definitely be many opportunities in the future."

"Doesn't big spending count? I think big spending is pretty good too."

"The consumer sector is very broad, and I always feel that the future macroeconomic trend is not as optimistic as everyone expects. The consumer sector is too dependent on the direction of the macroeconomy. If the macroeconomy is not doing well, continues to be sluggish, or is expected to fall into a period of low growth, then the consumer sector will be difficult to improve, and some of the seemingly solid underlying logic will be significantly shaken."

"What about the smartphone supply chain? Major mobile phone manufacturers all say that the industry has only just completed the first half, and the second half has not yet begun."

"The future prospects of the smartphone industry chain are likely still very good. However, the period of explosive growth in user base and market demand has passed. What follows should be an era of competition for existing market share, where major smartphone manufacturers will fight each other to seize market share. In this era, the profits of smartphone manufacturers should decline and price wars will begin. So, the long-term outlook is positive, but in the short term, there are definitely still many hidden dangers."

"What about the coal sector? It seems that the coal sector is consolidating its capacity and clearing out excess capacity more rapidly than the steel industry."

"I think the coal sector is about to see a turnaround."

"I also believe the future of the coal sector is more optimistic than that of the steel sector, but... the market's overall expectations for this sector are probably still not high at present, right?"

"That's good enough. The coal sector has been performing very well recently, and the industry has really taken off today."

"The valuation of Shenhua Coal Industry stock is indeed quite low."

"The market is just too big. Even if there is an expected rebound and future valuation repair, how much can the maximum increase be? At most, it will be two or three times."

"Isn't a two- or three-fold increase enough?"

"Two or three times isn't enough. Our capital is already small, so we naturally want to gamble on stocks with higher potential for growth. Let's leave these blue-chip, heavyweight stocks to the institutional investors."

"Okay, if you guys don't like it, I do. I'll buy some first."

"In the coal sector today, Pingmei Energy should be the strongest stock, right? I feel that if funds continue to concentrate on the coal sector, Pingmei Energy will definitely have a lot of room for speculation, and it might even become the next market leader?"

"Pingmei Energy's stock performance was indeed very strong today, but its sustainability remains questionable."

"Speaking of which, the stock performance of Beijiang Jiaojian today doesn't seem very strong, does it?"

"The stock of Beijiang Jiaojian has rallied today."

"It's not exactly weak, is it? After all, this stock is still showing a strong upward trend, and judging from the buying and selling dynamics, it seems the rally isn't over yet."

Whether the rally in Beijiang Jiaojian stock has ended depends on how the market opens tomorrow.

"There's no need to look at tomorrow's opening situation. We can judge by looking at the post-market trading data. As long as the funds that entered the market earlier don't engage in large-scale profit-taking and selling off today, then this stock is expected to continue its second wave. The only concern is that the major funds in the market might sell all their shares to retail investors today."

"Probably not. The rapid drop and subsequent surge in this stock's price movement during the day couldn't have been achieved by retail investors working together. I absolutely don't believe that the stock's price movement today wasn't driven by major institutional investors. However... with such a large trading volume today, it's certain that a group of institutional investors who entered the market earlier have chosen to exit and take profits."

This has sparked intense discussions among numerous retail investors in the market.

Before we knew it, the market trading session had quickly reached the final fifteen minutes of the closing session.

At this point, the previously stable market activity, including intraday trading volume and the price movements of many popular stocks, became volatile again. (End of Chapter)