Rebirth of the Capital Legend
Chapter 725 The Expected Certainty Premium!
Among them, Shuguang Shares, a popular stock with high market attention, saw many investors selling off their shares again in the last fifteen minutes of trading, seeing that the stock price was still not rising despite the good investment sentiment in the new energy industry chain.
Meanwhile, some potential investors who originally wanted to buy the stock, or who were optimistic about it, saw that the stock was still unable to generate a strong profit-making effect, and they began to back down. As a result, while the selling pressure gradually increased again, the number of active buyers actually decreased.
However, despite the fact that the stock price of Shuguang Co., Ltd. has started to decline again and the selling pressure on the market has increased significantly.
Within the main lines of the entire new energy industry chain...
However, overall, it is still in a relatively positive upward trend.
Along the main trend, driven by stocks such as Tinci Materials, Penghui Energy, Lead Intelligent Equipment, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, and Do-Fluoride Chemicals, more and more related low-priced stocks were discovered by active short-term funds in the market and rose steadily, forming a strong overall profit-making effect along the main trend.
Other core storylines at the same time...
The major infrastructure theme also rallied and strengthened in the last fifteen minutes of trading.
The stock of Beijiang Jiaojian has surged to nearly 6% and set a new record high. Taihe Shares hit the daily limit and continued to see reduced volume at the close. Tianshan Cement rose more than 7%, Conch Cement rose more than 3%, and a number of other stocks with "Hua" in their names, such as Huaguo Jiaojian, Huaguo Zhongjian, Huaguo Tiejian, Huaguo Jianzhu, and Huaguo Zhongye, also rose, continuing to attract the attention of major buying funds.
Meanwhile, film and television media, internet software, and internet applications are the main sectors that have been weak recently.
At this moment, the core stocks within the sector, such as All-China Education, Baofeng Technology, LeTV, Maruda Films, Huawen Media, and Huawen Online, have seen their prices rise sharply during the session, but are now continuing to decline.
It seems that after a short period of active buying interest during the day, the market has attracted attention.
Due to the heavy selling pressure from trapped investors in these core sectors, a large amount of active capital has begun to withdraw from these sectors and core stocks.
As for the steel, coal, and non-ferrous metals sectors, which saw a surge in attention during the day and were also the leading sectors in terms of gains, these are also the sectors that saw a surge in attention during the day.
At this moment, it is still fluctuating and strengthening.
Especially after core stocks such as Pingmei Energy and Bayi Steel hit their daily limit, the focus on the steel, coal, and non-ferrous metals sectors continued to surge, attracting a large influx of active funds into the market. As a result, many stocks in these sectors that were at low levels, had low valuations, and had strong expectations for explosive earnings growth were snapped up by a large number of active funds in a short period of time.
Sectors with the largest net outflows of funds during the day include liquor, white goods, pharmaceuticals, retail, petrochemicals, and power.
At this moment, due to the renewed decline in the film and television media, internet software, and internet application sectors, the main funds in the market have begun to converge on these defensive sectors again, causing a general rebound in the core leading stocks of these sectors at the end of the trading day.
Furthermore, due to the gradual recovery of these key sectors.
The Shanghai Composite Index also began to rise in the final stages of the trading day, narrowing the gap between it and the ChiNext Index and the Shenzhen Component Index.
Finally, at 3 p.m., the two stock exchanges closed.
The Shanghai Composite Index closed with a slight gain of 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index, after experiencing significant fluctuations, both closed with gains of around 0.5%.
Besides the performance of the index...
On the major themes of the market, the steel, coal, and non-ferrous metals sectors maintained their leading position in the two markets until the close. The gains of the three sectors were all above 2%, significantly outperforming the major market indices. Moreover, more than 12 related concept stocks in the three sectors hit the daily limit, indicating that the investment sentiment and speculative sentiment were extremely hot.
Besides these three leading sectors.
While the infrastructure sector wasn't the most eye-catching performer today, it still outperformed major market indices. The three core sectors—real estate, construction and decoration, and building materials—all closed with gains of around 1%, and overall, major funds showed a slight inflow.
Furthermore, these are core stocks within the entire major infrastructure sector.
Taihe Shares closed at the daily limit, Tianshan Cement surged 8%, Shougang Shares rose 6%, Financial Street Holdings jumped 4%, and Beijiang Transportation Construction climbed nearly 6%...
The performance of most popular stocks that have garnered significant attention has been quite good.
This illustrates the diverse investor groups in the market, including retail investors, institutional investors, and speculative capital.
The public's attention to and participation in the core theme of major infrastructure projects have not decreased significantly.
Moreover, in today's Hong Kong stock market, the main popular stocks in the real estate industry chain are still performing strongly, especially a number of mainland property stocks, which are still hitting new highs today under strong and continuous speculative sentiment, and the market trend continues to show a trend of rising volume and price.
As for sectors such as film and television media, internet software, and internet applications, which lean towards the technology theme.
From the start of trading to the close, the market generally followed an A-shaped pattern. Many popular concept stocks rose to nearly 5% intraday, but by the close, they had all fallen back to their original levels. Very few concept stocks in this main sector were able to maintain their intraday gains until the close.
As for defensive sectors such as liquor, white goods, and pharmaceuticals...
The closing prices showed a weak and volatile trend, slightly weaker than the market index. However, the overall internal shareholding structure remained relatively stable, without a large number of major funds taking profits and leaving the market, or a situation where major funds actively sold off on a large scale.
This shows that although many funds in the market are aware of the leading stocks at high levels.
In a market characterized by a zero-sum game and without any new major positive catalysts, the market is in a state of flux.
It's unlikely that prices will continue to rise.
However, for the time being, no new main theme can be found to support these major funds and guide the market index to continue to break through upwards. Therefore, everyone is temporarily focusing on the main theme of major infrastructure or major consumption and waiting for the market to develop further.
The steel, coal, and non-ferrous metals sectors saw a significant surge today.
Judging from the trading volume and the level of attention from major funds, most investors in the market have not yet formed a strong consensus on these main sectors.
Most people still believe in these few sectors.
It's driven by short-term speculative sentiment.
Few people realized that these sectors had ushered in a speculative opportunity due to a fundamental reversal, and very few investors compared these sectors with the major infrastructure and consumer themes.
However, investor confidence in the steel, coal, and non-ferrous metals sectors remains somewhat weak.
However, these sectors generated strong profits during today's trading session.
The surge in market attention and the growing interest from a wider range of investors are real and undeniable facts.
In particular, the non-ferrous metals sector is highly interconnected with the new energy and lithium battery sectors. Many lithium battery-related concept stocks within this sector have seen a rapid surge in investor attention and speculative activity from major investors. This has led to further consolidation of the internal shareholding structure of stocks such as Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, and Huayou Cobalt, resulting in a trend of continuous breakouts.
"Looking at today's market, overall, it should be in line with expectations, right?" After the market closed, Li Jinshi, in the 'Fushan Group' main speculative capital group, observed the market trends and the final closing situation and said, "However, in the final stage, the market's core hot spots and sentiment shifted back to heavyweight stocks and defensive main sectors, which was somewhat unexpected. I originally thought that small and mid-cap and micro-cap stocks would at least be able to experience a short-term oversold rebound today, but now it seems that this oversold rebound is unlikely to materialize. Perhaps tomorrow's market development will return to the old path."
"Yes, it's still the same market hotspots as before: consumer staples, infrastructure, power, and petrochemicals. These sectors are better able to generate sentiment, attract speculative buying, and gather potential buying power, creating a sustained profit-making effect." Hearing Li Jinshi's words, Chen Guiyun nodded in agreement, saying, "Film and television media, internet software, internet applications... these main sectors are still too weak. The amount of trapped capital in the market is still too heavy. It's indeed difficult to gather sustained buying power and sustained buying follow-up. It seems that no one believes these sectors can achieve a sustained upward trend."
Upon hearing Chen Guiyun's words, Liao Guoxiang replied, "It's not that I don't believe that sectors like film and television media, internet software, and internet applications, which are more technology-oriented, can form a sustained market trend. Rather, the overall market volume is not optimistic, and everyone's investment confidence is really weak."
Amidst a generally pessimistic market sentiment regarding investment.
It is inherently very difficult for stocks with weak earnings performance and a focus on storytelling and thematic concepts to achieve sustained upward trends.
Generally, this occurs when overall market expectations are low and people's expectations tend to be conservative.
The more certain the core theme is in the market, the more attention it will attract from major funds, and the more it will help to build consensus on the market trend.
This should be called the expected certainty premium.
In the current market phase, whether it's the liquor and white goods sectors in the main consumer sector or the real estate development, construction decoration, and building materials sectors in the main infrastructure sector, the certainty of expectations is very high. Therefore, the corresponding stocks have a relatively high degree of consensus on their price trends.
Of course, this includes today's steel, coal, and non-ferrous metals sectors.
With increasing attention from major investors, and given that the core leading stocks in these sectors already have low valuations and relatively high safety margins, a stronger consensus is gradually forming, creating a premium for the certainty of these expectations.
"According to what you've said, Lao Liao, stocks in sectors like film and television media, internet software, and internet applications—which lean towards the technology theme—don't seem to offer much opportunity right now, or have they generally bottomed out?" Chen Guiyun inquired. "But the steel, coal, and non-ferrous metals sectors are worth paying more attention to?"
Liao Guoxiang nodded and said, "That's what I think, and the market is also reflecting that. There's no reason for us not to follow the market's feedback when making our trades."
"On the main lines..." Li Jinshi said, "Indeed, the main lines of consumption and infrastructure are still more reliable. The steel, coal and non-ferrous metals sectors that performed well today were actually driven up by funds based on the underlying logic of these two main lines. I think it's right to continue to pay attention to the market trend of these main lines. As for the corresponding concept stocks of film and television media, Internet software and Internet applications, which are more inclined towards the technology main line, since they have not formed a sustained profit-making effect, have not shown obvious bottoming characteristics, and there is a heavy amount of trapped capital in the market, and the overall chip structure has not loosened, then we should indeed respect the market and avoid this main line and the corresponding major sectors."
“Avoiding weak sectors is not a problem,” Chen Guiyun said. “But how to choose the core hot stocks in the hot sectors is still a problem. What do you all think of Beijiang Jiaojian stock? Do you think the rally in this stock has come to an end?”
Li Jinshi said, "I think the rally of Beijiang Jiaojian stock is not over yet. At least with the increased trading volume today, the stock closed relatively stable after the huge intraday fluctuations and even reached a new high. Overall, the stock's performance today was in line with expectations. However, the break in the limit up price here will likely affect market sentiment and the willingness of investors to take over."
"The fact that Beijiang Jiaojian stock didn't collapse and plummet today is beyond my expectations," Liao Guoxiang said. "Normally, after yesterday's low-volume sell-off, this stock should have opened lower and continued to decline today. But instead, it didn't follow the expected pattern of opening lower and declining. Instead, it showed a good pattern of volatile fluctuations digesting profit-taking. This fully demonstrates that at the current level, there is still a large number of active funds in the market willing to continue to support Beijiang Jiaojian stock, and this potential continuous buying power is stronger than the selling power in the market."
However, today's core market focus, and the primary target and attack of active major funds in the market, is not the large-scale infrastructure sector.
Otherwise, the stock of Beijiang Jiaojian would still have a great chance to hit the daily limit today.
But for this particular stock, the closing situation is quite good.
The fact that the stock didn't fall after the sharp turnover proves that the large amount of capital that followed up during the day still wants to push the market up. It also shows that with the current level of attention and the concentrated force of capital, the stock price is unlikely to fall.
Given this, once their stakes have been further consolidated...
The stock price will most likely continue to rise. Whether it can achieve the same level of increase as the first wave, or whether it can hit several limit-up days and generate significant gains in the second wave, only time will tell. (End of Chapter)
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