My life is like walking on thin ice

Chapter 459 Different, Very Different

"If the battle of Gaoque breaks out, has your majesty ever estimated the amount of troops and food that our Han family will need to deploy?"

After a long silence, Han Tuidang finally spoke.

However, due to his status as a surrendered general and his respect for Liu Rong, Han Tuidang decided not to raise his objections directly, but to use this tactful approach to make Liu Rong give up.

Unexpectedly, this question was met with Liu Rong's extremely confident and accurate answer.

"I have indeed calculated it."

Liu Gong spoke in a slightly cocky tone and immediately stepped forward, looking up at the Feng Shui master.

Then he raised his hand and pointed at Gaoque, roughly drawing a circle.

"Gaoque was originally garrisoned by one of the four major Xiongnu clans: the Huyan clan."

"After the Hetao-Mayi battle last year, Xiongnu Chanyu Ting was well aware of the danger of Gaoque, so he transferred another of the four major clans, the Lan clan, to the Gaoque front line."

"In addition to the two tribes stationed at Gaoque, with a total of about 40,000 soldiers and horses, there are also surrounding tribes."

...

"Within a radius of 500 li from Gaoque, there are 19 tribes of varying sizes with more than 10,000 people and more than 500 warriors. They can send out at least 30,000 troops."

"Within a thousand miles, there are fifty-five tribes with more than a thousand warriors, which can send out 60,000 troops."

"If we attack Gaoque by force and fail to take it quickly, then at most seven days after the battle, there will be more than 100,000 Xiongnu cavalry stationed at Gaoque that our Han family will face."

When it comes to specific numbers, the smile on Liu Rong's face gradually faded, replaced by a sense of severity and solemnity.

"One hundred thousand soldiers and horses, even the Hu cavalry who are not good at attacking and defending the pass, should not be underestimated."

"Besides, we have Gaoque as our support. Without three times the number of troops, it would be impossible to storm it."

"In other words, to attack Gaoque, our Han family needs to mobilize at least 300,000 soldiers, and at least twice as many civilians and auxiliary soldiers."

"——This is nearly a million people."

"The monthly military rations, including losses along the way, are nearly three million shi!"

...

"In the battle of Gaoque, whether or not our Han family can capture Gaoque, the casualties of our soldiers will not be less than 20%."

"That is, at least 60,000 soldiers were killed or wounded, and more than 100,000 civilians were killed or wounded."

"This is just a conservative estimate."

"The worst case scenario is that nearly half of the 300,000 combat soldiers were killed or wounded, more than 100,000, and more than half of the auxiliary soldiers and civilians were killed or wounded, hundreds of thousands."

"In this case, my Han family will have to spend hundreds of millions of dollars just for post-war relief."

After saying that, Liu Rong turned to look at Li Ji and Luan Bu, wanting to see their reactions.

——Liu Rong calculated this account based on theoretical value.

What will actually happen, these experienced generals will be able to come up with a more accurate range.

as predicted.

As soon as Liu Rong finished speaking, Li Ji simplified the data given by Liu Rong without hesitation.

"Two hundred thousand soldiers and horses should be enough to attack Gaoque."

"The remaining 100,000 troops may be deployed along the western side of the Hetao area to prevent any disturbances in Hexi."

"As for military rations - 300,000 troops, at least twice as many civilians and auxiliary soldiers, just food costs nearly 2 million dan per month;"

"Besides, the Hetao Mountains are high and the roads are long. For every stone of grain transported to Gaoque, perhaps an extra stone or more would be required as transportation costs."

"So, that's 4 million shi per month..."

...

As he spoke, Li Ji couldn't help but take a deep breath, and barely convinced himself to put aside the two issues of manpower input and military rations consumption for the time being.

But even if these two major items were removed, the remaining part was enough to terrify the four people in the hall.

Especially as Liu Rong mentioned just now: the casualties caused by the attack on Gaoque may cause the Han family to bear the burden of pensions and compensation of up to hundreds of millions of money after the war.

Hundreds of millions of dollars!
What concept?
——Emperor Taizong Xiaowen once calculated: If the Han Dynasty and the Xiongnu people fought three decisive battles in succession, and each time they used all their main forces, the total value of the money, food, expenses and other investments consumed by the Han Dynasty would be about 400 million coins.

In other words, if the Shaofu saved up 400 million yuan, the Han Dynasty could avoid bothering the lower-class people and defeat the Huns at its own expense without increasing taxes.

Four hundred million coins, a final battle in three stages, each stage costing about one and a half million coins.

In other words: if they attacked Gaoque by force, regardless of success or failure - if the casualties were too great, the Han Dynasty's war investment would very likely exceed almost all the costs of a certain stage of the final battle with the Huns as originally planned.

The cost is extremely high and the risk is huge!
Naturally, Li Ji, Luan Bu and Han Tuidang looked at Gao Que with increasingly strange eyes.

——Who the hell do you think you are, Gao Que? That my Han family has to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to gamble on a chance to break through head-on?

Oh, you are from Munan Gate...

That's okay...

But even so, the amount of post-war pensions of millions of dollars is really frighteningly large.

What will this cause?
very simple.

When the Han-Xiongnu Gaoque Battle officially started, if one of the three old guys present was in charge, he would definitely settle the score in secret.

When the casualties in the attack on Gaoque reach a level that causes the Han family to suffer heavy losses and the compensation would be enough to compensate for death, these three people will definitely stop attacking Gaoque for cost-effectiveness considerations.

If we don't continue fighting, there will be no more casualties, which will lead to an ever-increasing amount of post-war compensation that needs to be paid.

But is this really the case?
People in later generations often say that war is a continuation of politics, which breaks out due to the overflow of the intensity of political struggle and serves politics.

But from the perspective of this "accounting" theory, that is, finance, economy - or the theory of gains and losses, war is often a zero-sum game.

That is: the victorious side takes all, and the defeated side loses everything.

As long as you win, you have everything;

If you lose the war, you will have nothing.

In modern times, it was for this reason that the United States, at a time when its regime was in an extremely difficult period, decided to go all out and try for a 'winner takes all' solution to all its internal problems.

The same principle applies to Gaoque.

——If the Han army captures Gaoque and successfully defends the core victory fruit of 'Gaoque', then the six-digit combat casualties and the total amount of pensions up to eleven digits will all be worth it.

With Gaoque, the Han Dynasty will be able to own Munan, Hexi, and even the more distant Mobei and Western Regions in the future. Any investment is worth it and will be profitable.

On the contrary, if Gaoque could not be taken, the chain reaction caused by the failure of this zero-sum game would most likely cause the Han family - at least the current Han family - unbearable pain.

The first point is naturally casualties.

Why mention the casualties again?
Because the casualties during victory and the casualties after defeat are two completely different things.

Victory in war means that after every battle, we can almost clean up the battlefield.

The bodies and belongings of the fallen soldiers can be collected, and the ashes obtained from the cremation of their bodies can be sent back to their hometowns - and they died heroically and returned home with honor!
Those who have lost their combat effectiveness and mobility due to injuries can also receive relatively better treatment and diagnosis during the battlefield cleanup process.

Those who are lucky can be rescued, those who are slightly less lucky may become disabled, but at least they can survive.

Only when one is extremely unlucky and seriously injured can one be beyond rescue.

What about the loss of the war?
Forget about cleaning up the battlefield - it's already amazing that we can prevent our national border from shrinking inward!
The national border is hanging in the balance, not to mention cleaning up the battlefield, collecting the bodies and belongings, or even burning the bodies and transferring the ashes back to their hometowns to "return home in glory."

Most of the time, soldiers who died in a lost war were unable to keep their bodies.

Basically, the martyr's superior during his lifetime came to inform the family: your son/husband/father has died heroically on the battlefield.

Then the family members took the martyr's belongings left at home and built a cenotaph or something like that.

Neighbors in the surrounding area would not say that the man of a certain family was a "great hero who sacrificed his life for the country", but would simply say: Oh, his man went to a defeated battle and died on the battlefield.

There are even people who blame the failure of the war on the heroes who died in the war.

——To die on the battlefield clearly means that this person is not good enough!

——If there are too many such inferior people, how can the army have the combat effectiveness?

——Without fighting ability, how can we defeat the Huns? With our heads?
Therefore, victory or defeat in a war will have a significant impact on the posthumous reputation, honor, and social evaluation of the fallen martyrs.

If you die in a war in which our side wins, you are using your life to help us achieve victory!
But if you die in a war in which we lose, someone will regard your death as one of the culprits of the defeat.

For the Han people of this era who value reputation more than life, and especially family reputation more than the family's future, the difference between the two is greater than the gap between life and death.

——The former is better than being alive, while the latter is more unacceptable than the death of the entire family.

The second point: pension system.

In the perception of most later generations, whether the killed or disabled soldiers receive compensation, what level of compensation they receive, and what kind of social opinion they receive have no direct correlation with the outcome of the war.

But in feudal times, the two were highly related.

The reason is simple;
In fact, the vast majority of feudal dynasties did not have a very sound and normal pension system for killed or disabled soldiers.

For example, in the current Han Dynasty, at the legal level, there are only a few regulations left in the form of laws and decrees during the reign of Emperor Taizu Gao.

The original text is: When a soldier dies in the army, his body is made into a coffin and sent back to his county. The county will provide him with clothing, quilts, coffins and burial supplies, and offer a small sacrifice. The chief official will oversee the burial.

Translated, it means: if a soldier died during his service, his body would be placed in a small coffin and sent back to his hometown; the county government of his hometown would provide burial clothes and burial supplies, and a sacrifice of Shaolao standard would be held for him; and the highest official of the county government would personally attend the funeral.

It looks great, is very heartwarming, and solves many real-life problems.

But in fact, this regulation regarding fallen soldiers is just a "regulation" and cannot be considered as a pension at all.

For example, the first sentence: Soldiers who died in the army were buried in their counties.

——What else?

——If we don’t send the body back, will it be thrown in the wild to stink and rot, unable to rest in peace?
——If this is really done, who would be willing to join the army, and who would be willing to let their sons join the army?
This is a basic measure that should be taken; if you fail to do it, you will lose your virtue.

Let’s look at the second sentence: The county provided clothes, quilts, coffins and funeral supplies, and the ancestral temple provided a small sacrifice.

This sentence is okay.

The county government of the martyr's registered place provided funeral supplies and held sacrifices for him according to the standards of Shaolao. After all, it was some real money spent and it actually reduced the financial pressure that the martyr's family might face when arranging the funeral.

But the problem with this article is that whether it is the funeral fart bestowed in the name of the emperor, or the "Shao Lao" required for the sacrifice of Shao Lao specifications, that is, a pig and a sheep, without exception, the local county government is responsible for paying for it.

The emperor at the central government refused to pay, so he just talked to the local county government and asked them to pay money to win the hearts of the people.

Let’s not talk about whether this is appropriate or not, or whether it is unfair to the local county government;

The loopholes in the specific operations alone are so big that they are speechless.

——In principle, local county governments cannot violate this law and must perform the functions required by this law.

But what if the local county government is unable to perform its duties?

What if the financial situation of the local county government is not sufficient to support them in enforcing this law?

What's even more disgusting is that if the financial situation of the local county government can be whitewashed as "just unable to afford this expenditure", then this legal decree formulated by Emperor Taizu Liu Bang will inevitably become a dead letter.

It’s not that I don’t want to give it to you, it’s that I really don’t have the money!

Otherwise, wait a little longer?

If you really can't wait, you can pay for it out of your own pocket so that the person can be buried in peace first.

As for funeral supplies and sacrificial offerings, we will give you the money when the county government has money.

what?
You ask when the county government will have money?

It's not that if I say yes, it's there, and if I say no, it's there, too; if I say no, it's there, and if I say yes, it's there...

Funeral supplies and sacrifices of Shaolao standard were all just empty talk because the local county government was "unable to afford it", not to mention the last sentence "the county magistrate attended the funeral".

Is it okay that I am very busy?

Is it okay to go to the county government for a meeting?
It’s really useless - I’m sick, what can you say?
After all, in most periods of the feudal era, whether the fallen soldiers could receive compensation depended entirely on the mood of the feudal emperor himself.

When the mood gets better, some people may just wave their hands and hold a collective state funeral;
When he is in a bad mood, he will bury his head like an ostrich and there is nothing you can do about it.

So, how did things related to war affect the mood of feudal emperors?
Among all matters related to war, what is the easiest and most direct way to affect the emperor's mood?

The answer, obviously, is the result of war.

If you win, you will naturally be happy!
The emperor not only had the courage to generously provide relief, but he also had the confidence to do so - how much of the money earned from winning the war could be used to provide relief?

On the contrary, if you lose the fight, you will naturally be unhappy.

Not to mention whether there is still the energy and mood to provide relief - even if there is, the actual conditions may not allow it.

After all, if we lose the war, we will suffer huge losses economically.

Where is the spare money to provide compensation to the dead and the disabled?
(End of this chapter)