My life is like walking on thin ice

Chapter 460 Strategic Pattern
This is one of them;

——The mood of the emperor and the generals was affected by the direct factor of the outcome after the war and the indirect factor of the emperor's mood. This made it full of uncertainty as to whether the soldiers could receive compensation if they died or whether they could receive rewards if they were alive.

Moreover, it is obvious at a glance that the treatments corresponding to the outcomes of wars are very different.

As a person from later generations, Liu Rong naturally knew that this was wrong.

In the army, rewards are rewards and relief is relief.

The former is a reward and the latter is encouragement. Both are necessary and indispensable.

To be honest, compared with "rewarding meritorious people on time", it is more urgent to form a system to support "providing pensions to fallen and disabled soldiers on time".

Because there is no reward, there will only be a lack of motivation, and everyone will not work hard and will not be willing to fight well;

Without compensation, people will lose confidence and simply won’t want to go to the battlefield!

Therefore, the pension system will also exist or disappear depending on the victory or failure of a war.

The last and most speechless point is that after this battle, the strategic pattern between the Han and the Xiongnu will not remain as it is now, with the Han controlling the Hetao area and ready to make a move, while the Xiongnu defending Gaoque and trembling with fear.

——The strategic landscape will be in dynamic change with every war or even battle.

For example, from the fifth year of the Han Dynasty when Emperor Taizu Gaohuangdi Liu Bang was trapped in the siege of Baideng, to the first year of the current Emperor Liu Rong before the end of the Han-Xiongnu war - during this full fifty years, the strategic pattern between the Han and the Xiongnu was always that the Xiongnu were on the front line and the Han was passively beaten.

It was not until the first year of Emperor Liu Rong's reign, when the Han-Xiongnu War ended, that the strategic balance between the Han and Xiongnu tilted in favor of the Han for the first time.

On the surface, this doesn't seem normal.

Because the war between the Han and the Xiongnu was, in essence, a failed war of aggression and a successful war of national defense.

Moreover, the war did not extend the front line or time - it was just a battle in Chaona, and the war was completely over.

Whether from the results or the process, after the Battle of Chaona, the actual border control line between the Han and the Xiongnu did not change at all.

Before that battle, the Han people guarded Chaona Pass, and the Huns came and went as they pleased, fought as they pleased, and left as they pleased.

After that battle, the Han still guarded Chaona Pass, and the Huns could still come and go freely.

The state of confrontation between the two sides has not changed, and neither side has suffered too heavy local losses or been seriously injured by the huge cost of war.

From this perspective, the Battle of Chaona between the Han and the Xiongnu should not have affected the actual strategic situation between the Han and the Xiongnu.

At most, the Huns' morale was low and they were a little afraid and wary of Chao Nasai.

The morale of the Han people was higher, and they had an extra layer of "awesome" filter towards Chao Nasai and the generals and troops who participated in the war.

However, the reality is: after that battle, the strategic situation between the Han and the Huns changed.

——The Han Dynasty, unprecedentedly, completely blocked the Xiongnu's organized cavalry groups outside the country.

This alone forced the power centers of both the Han and the Xiongnu to re-evaluate the changes in power between the two sides, and to formulate a new way of treating each other based on the new power comparison.

For example, after the battle against Chao, the Han family realized that they were becoming quite powerful;

Although they still couldn't catch up with the Huns who were determined to escape, they could at least hold a place and block the Huns somewhere, preventing them from doing whatever they wanted.

After that, can I be less humble?
Do we no longer have to worry so much about the threat of the Huns constantly talking about "four hundred thousand soldiers and horses"? Do we no longer have to rush to marry the Huns or beg them for mercy when they show anger and are ready to make trouble, so as to kneel down and keep the border stable?

Yes!
From then on, the Han people were no longer afraid of the Huns!
As a result, the Han family gained the confidence that "No matter which direction the wind blows, you just can't take us down or get out of here."

What about the Huns?

They should have recognized this reality and adjusted their strategic response to the Han Dynasty as soon as possible;
But in the end, he was still living in a dream, believing that the Battle of Chaona was just a fluke for the Han Dynasty and the incompetence of the Right Wise King Yizhixie, which led to such an counterintuitive outcome.

It is no wonder that only half a year after the Battle of Chao-Na, the Huns once again approached the Han Dynasty from the direction of Mayi, and thus fell into the trap of the Han Dynasty and lost the Hetao area.

——The Battle of Chaona did not make the Huns face the reality at all.

They failed to face the reality and still followed the old calendar to make new strategic arrangements and strategic response plans. Naturally, they were tricked by the Han family who updated their strategic log earlier.

It was not until the Huns' original thought of the 'Battle of Mayi' turned into the Hetao-Mayi Campaign, in which the Han dynasty had complete control over the situation from beginning to end, that the Huns finally began to face reality.

Just a little late.

By the time the Huns realized the reality and realized that they had lost the Hetao area, a new strategic pattern began to take shape again.

This time, the Huns learned their lesson and no longer believed in their past strength. Instead, they forced themselves to calm down and carefully examined how different the current Han Dynasty was from the past.

Obviously, the biggest change is that the Han Dynasty took control of Hetao.

Every few years thereafter, the Han family would receive a considerable number of war horses that would help them quickly build up their cavalry units.

Secondly, after the Hetao-Mayi Campaign, the Han Dynasty demonstrated its huge strategic reserves, logistical support capabilities, and ability to control the battle situation by fighting on two fronts, with more than 100,000 people participating in both fronts.

Finally, there was the new emperor of the Han Dynasty, who was decisive and courageous. After more than 50 years of strategic disadvantages, he resolutely took the initiative to try to reverse the existing strategic situation.

And did it!
After realizing these changes, the Huns finally adjusted their strategic response plan against the Han Dynasty and their assessment of the strategic situation between the Han and Huns.

——First, the Chanyu Ting sent envoys to Chang'an, either by coercion or intimidation, to see if there was still a chance to scare the Han family, so as to seek some benefits for the Chanyu Ting that could be easily obtained without spending a single soldier.

By the way, we can judge the Han Dynasty’s backup plans and confidence through the attitude it displays in the diplomatic process.

For example, if the Han Dynasty puffed up its beard and glared, and acted extremely tough, it was because its wealth had been emptied by the Hetao-Mayi Campaign, and it was actually almost unable to hold on; pretending to be tough was just an attempt to force the Xiongnu Chanyu Ting to surrender as soon as possible.

At this time, as long as the Shanyu court can hold on, the Han people may not be able to hold on as the battle line stretches out, thus bringing about new x factors in the strategic landscape.

But what disappointed the Xiongnu Chanyu Ting was that that diplomatic test presented an extremely cruel reality to the Xiongnu Chanyu Ting.

——The Han family still has some strength to spare.

The Hetao-Mayi Campaign did not empty the Han people's assets, and it was far from emptying them.

If the results of the battle were not so great and the Han people were willing to digest it patiently, the Hetao-Mayi Campaign would not necessarily have ended with the change of ownership of Hetao!
Instead, it will enter the second stage, such as the Battle of Hexi, the Battle of Gaoque, or even directly the Battle of Munan and the Battle of Mobei!
After making this strategic judgment, the Huns finally realized that the strategic pattern between the Han and the Huns had undergone earth-shaking changes with the Battle of Chaona and the Battle of Hetao-Mayi, two wars that took place in the same year.

Therefore, in order to cope with the new strategic situation, the Huns changed their strategic decision and decided to temporarily avoid the limelight, while using space to exchange time, running to the Western Regions and even further west in Central Asia to rebuild their strength for the future.

After the new strategic pattern was formed, Gaoque became the fulcrum of the strategic balance between the Han and the Xiongnu.

With Gaoque in place, the Han's next strategic offensive could be delayed or even stopped directly;

The Huns could take advantage of the time when the Han Dynasty was unable to move further north to Munan and west to Hexi due to the existence of Gaoque, and further deepen their control over the Western Regions. They could increase the Western Regions' ability to generate and transfuse blood to the Huns' Chanyu court, so that they would have more bargaining chips and power in future struggles between the Han and the Huns.

What if this happened in the past?
——If you want to exploit the people in the Western Regions, or to capture cities and strongholds and expand territory in Central Asia, why does Shan Yu Ting need to take action personally?
Over in the Western Regions, a thousand or so elite cavalrymen, plus an envoy of the Chanyu, were enough to scare more than 90% of the countries in the Western Regions into pissing their shit out of them, and they would quickly wash their queen mothers clean and send them to the Chanyu's court to warm their beds!

Central Asia is a little troublesome, but it's just a little troublesome. If we send more troops and give it more time, we will always be able to gain something.

But under the new strategic pattern, the Xiongnu Chanyu Ting dared not hold back any longer and had to take action himself in order to gain the greatest strategic benefits in the Western Regions and Central Asia in the shortest possible time, thereby improving his passive situation under the new strategic pattern of the Han and Xiongnu.

At this moment, Liu Rong wanted to launch the Battle of Gaoque between Han and Xiongnu. Among the war costs and the strategic risks and losses that might be incurred after the war, one crucial issue was the impact of the war outcome on the future strategic landscape of Han and Xiongnu.

If they win and take Gaoque, then there is no doubt about it - no matter how the strategic situation changes, it will inevitably change in a direction that is beneficial to the Han Dynasty and extremely unfavorable to the Xiongnu.

But if they lost the battle, and still failed to capture Gaoque after suffering huge losses and investing huge costs, then the post-war strategic landscape would develop in a direction that would be unfavorable to the Han Dynasty.

Just like the Battle of Chaona, the Xiongnu simply attacked but failed to conquer, which began to tilt the strategic balance towards the Han Dynasty;
If the Battle of Gaoque was won, and the Han Empire was unable to capture the city - or even unable to capture it quickly, or unable to hold it for long, then the strategic balance after the war would also tilt in favor of the Xiongnu.

The first to be affected are the nomadic tribes that still exist in the Hetao area and are theoretically subject to the Han Dynasty. They will inevitably become restless and waver, thus leading to instability in the Hetao area.

The worst-case scenario could even lead to a chain reaction - the Xiongnu would turn from defense to offense, crossing the river from Gaoque to the south and setting foot on the Hetao area;
The nomadic tribes in the Hetao region responded in the heart of the Hetao, which led to the Han Dynasty having to pacify the Hetao again or even give up the Hetao.

The second is Hexi.

Nowadays, the Han family cannot make full efforts to seize Hexi due to the existence of Gaoque.
The existence of Gaoque also gave the Hexi tribes a certain degree of confidence when facing the Han Dynasty's obvious strategic offensive intentions.

Once the Battle of Gaoque breaks out and ends in the defeat of the Han Dynasty, the Hexi tribes will not only be approaching the Hetao area, but will at least further lock the Han Dynasty's footsteps on the east bank of the river.

The Han Dynasty's originally favorable situation and its relaxed strategic position of being able to take Hexi in the west and attack Munan in the north would be reversed.

The most ideal situation is that the Han Dynasty loses the ability to continue to expand and maintain a strategic offensive posture, but can barely keep the Hetao area;

The worst case scenario is that everything returns to the strategic situation before the Hetao-Mayi Campaign, or even before the Han-Xiongnu Battle.

Over the past few years, the Han family has wasted countless manpower, financial resources, and time, but all in vain.

And this cost - compared with the investment in the battle itself and the consumption of resources after the war, the change in the strategic pattern caused by the results of the war is the key point that the Han family really needs to evaluate the risk-benefit ratio.

It’s just like doing business, there are gains and losses.

The investment may be large or small, and the risk may be high or low;
Judging whether a business is worth doing or should be done does not depend on how large the investment is or how high the risk is, but on whether the final profit can match the amount of investment and the level of risk.

There is no doubt that attacking Gaoque is a large project with huge investment, high risk, and extremely substantial returns.

If we use the two most extreme outcomes of the war as the standard, namely, a complete victory for the Han Dynasty, which would move north to Munan and west to Hexi, or a complete defeat for the Han Dynasty, which would give up the Hetao area and retreat to the north, it is no exaggeration to say that the Battle of Gaoque might very well become a battle of national destiny for both the Xiongnu Empire and the Han Dynasty!

The winner will have a prosperous country from then on;

The loser will also see the decline of his national fortune.

Judging from the current strategic situation between the Han and the Xiongnu, the Han, which occupies a relatively advantageous position, does not seem to need to take this risk.

Maintaining the status quo, relying on the unique advantages of Hetao to develop with peace of mind, and increasing cavalry is the most cost-effective option.

But Liu Rong was very clear: in the next two years, the Huns would definitely reap rich rewards in the Western Regions and Central Asia.

When they return, the Xiongnu Chanyu Court will surely reappear in the Munan area with a new look.

By that time, Gaoque would probably no longer be the barrier that the Xiongnu used to keep the Han Dynasty out of the south of the wall, but would become a stronghold for the Chanyu army to march south and retake Hetao.

The enemy is growing, growing stronger, and gathering strength;

Moreover, he abandoned Munan and ran to the West to accumulate strength!
Liu Rong really couldn't convince himself not to take advantage of this window of opportunity to do something so that the Huns would completely lose the chance to turn things around.

Gaoque is very difficult to fight.

But right now, the main force of the Shanyu court is far away in the west - at least in the Western Regions, and they cannot come back within three or two months!
This may very well be the time point in the next few decades when Gaoque's defense will be the weakest and most easily breached.

Whether we can seize this opportunity depends on how well the soldiers fight.

But whether or not to seize this opportunity depends on whether Liu Rong has the strategic courage.

(End of this chapter)