My life is like walking on thin ice

Chapter 499: Running East and West

In the third year of the reign of Emperor Rong of the Han Dynasty, it was the third month of spring.

On the nineteenth day after the counterattack on Gaoque, the Xiongnu Right Wise King Luanti Yizhixie made the extremely decisive decision to abandon Gaoque and move to Yunzhong.

Of course, they did not retreat from Gaoque in a high-profile manner and turn around to attack Yunzhong.

——It was as if it really existed, and it sensed Yizhixie’s intentions and was willing to cooperate with Yizhixie;
Ever since Yizhixie made the decision to move the battle to Yunzhong, it seemed that the "God of the Plow" who really existed in the dark had caused heavy fog to fall for three consecutive days in Gaoque area at the beginning of spring!

This made Cheng Buzhi and Zhidu in Gaoque very frightened, fearing that the sudden abnormal weather changes would cause changes in Gaoque.

But what neither of them knew was that Yizhixie was an extremely decisive person.

As a new generation of Right Wise King who grew up in Munan and was personally trained by the former Right Wise King, a great man in the Han border area who was able to cure children's night crying, Yizhixie knew very well that once a military decision is made, there is no turning back.

Once a decision has been made, you should focus on moving forward with it, rather than considering whether the decision is right or wrong halfway through.

Because it makes no sense.

The harm and danger of revoking a military decision that has already been made or even being promoted is even greater than thoroughly implementing an obviously wrong decision.

Because wrong decisions often do not mean that there is no success rate, but that the success rate is not high.

The reason why wrong decisions are "wrong" at the military level is often that the success rate is incorrectly assessed.

For example, last year the Huns thought it was impossible to lose Gaoque, which meant that they overestimated the success rate of defending Gaoque.

The fact that Gaoque was captured by the Han family does not mean that it was originally completely impossible to defend Gaoque and that the Han family would definitely capture Gaoque.

The general situation is: even when the Han army has the advantage of time, place and people, the Huns' chance of holding Gaoque is still as high as 80% or even more than 90%!
If we are a little more careful, Gaoque will be almost impossible to be breached from the outside.

As a result, the Huns made a slight misjudgment, misjudging the 80% or 90% as being infinitely close to 100% - or even more directly 100% and must.

He mistakenly thought that as long as one is careful, Gaoque will not be lost, but thought that no matter how careless one is, Gaoque will not be lost.

In fact, even though they had the best timing, location and people, the Han Dynasty still paid a huge price and relied on luck to seize Gaoque in an extremely dramatic way.

But no matter what, even if it is a wrong assessment or a wrong decision, the success rate will always exist and will never be completely zero.

——Xiang Yu burned his boats and Han Xin fought a desperate battle. The success rate was so tiny that it could be said to be invisible to the naked eye, but didn’t it succeed in the end?
From the perspective of hindsight, it is true that King Xiang was unparalleled in his dominance, while Han Xin was a master of military strategy.

But before it is accomplished, I am afraid that neither of them is 100% confident in their hearts.

To put it bluntly: Throughout the five thousand years of Chinese history, there was more than one Overlord Xiang Yu who burned his boats and fought a desperate battle, and more than one Han Xin who fought a desperate battle.

Xiang Yu burned his boats and faced death, not because he was Xiang Yu, so he succeeded, but because he succeeded, so he became the overlord Xiang Yu who was named in history.

If it had failed, and the anti-Qin general Xiang Yu died in the Battle of Julu, who in later generations would have known who Xiang Yu was, and how could he have become the later King of Western Chu?
There is nothing new in the five thousand years of Chinese history.

Whether before or after Xiang Yu, there must have been countless generals who had played the strategy of burning their boats and breaking their bridges.

But only Xiang Yu succeeded, so he became Xiang Yu.

Others did not succeed and failed, so they became 'they', not even worthy of their names being known to future generations.

The same principle actually applies to military decision-making.

After making the decision to "burn your boats and break your cauldrons", until the outcome of the war is settled, you cannot be sure whether you will be the next Xiang Yu or another unknown "them".

But the decision has been made, and what you should do is to do everything you can to give yourself a greater chance of success and a higher rate of success.

Maybe in the end, you and your enemy are both at the end of their rope, and it is just this breath you forcefully hold out that makes you the second Xiang Yu.

On the contrary, if after you have made up your mind, you are still thinking, "Oh, that's Xiang Yu, how can I accomplish what only he has accomplished?", then even if you are really Xiang Yu in the world, you will definitely be one step away from becoming "them" by accident.

Again.

For generals who are not time travelers or reborn people, the outcome of a war can never be predicted 100%.

The situation on the battlefield changes rapidly, and until the moment the outcome of the battle is decided, no one can say who the final winner of the war will be.

In order to achieve victory, careful and rigorous planning and preparation must be carried out so as to gain more theoretical chances of winning during the preparation stage.

When the plan is prepared and officially enters the implementation stage, you should no longer think about "Oh, I would not have made this decision or planned this way if I had known earlier", but should implement it unswervingly.

It's like a decision. Your judgment before the war is that there is a 50% chance of success if you do this.

As a result, you misjudged the decision and the chance of success was only 20%.

what would you do?
The answer is: carry it out, push forward more firmly, and strive for that 20% success rate.

What if at the same time - when you realize that the decision you thought had a 50% chance of success actually only has a 20% chance, there is a random change with a 60% chance of success, which is higher than the success rate of your original plan!
How to do?
The answer is still: stay focused and carry out the decision unwaveringly even if you mistakenly judge that you have a 50% chance of winning, when in fact you only have a 20% chance of winning.

why?
Because the plan with a 60% success rate will only have a 60% success rate during your initial preparation and decision-making stages.

Once you don't choose that option in the first place, success is no longer a 60% chance.

Let’s give an example for better understanding.

You are a businessman.

In a certain year, you judge that there is a 50% chance that there will be a shortage of socks in the market in the second half of that year.

So, you decide to stock up a batch of socks at a low price in the first half of the year, and then wait until the second half of the year when the market is in short supply, hoard them, sell them at a high price, and make a huge profit.

As a result, just as you started to stock up, news came out from the market: In the second half of the year, there is an 80% chance that the government will conduct macro-control of the socks market.

Once the authorities take action, the price of socks will plummet.

You stockpiled this batch of socks at one dollar a pair, and planned to sell them at five dollars a pair.

Now, there was news in the market and the price of socks dropped to 50 cents.

If you sell now, you will lose 50 cents on each pair of socks, and half of the total cost will be lost.

If you don't sell them and wait until the second half of the year, if the authorities really take action, the price of the socks may drop to one cent, and you will have to pay 90% of the cost!

What should you do at this time?
The goods I have stockpiled are sold at a price of 50 cents, so I cut my losses in half?
Or should we ignore the possibility that the authorities will "80% likely intervene to regulate the market" and stubbornly stockpile goods, taking a gamble on that 20% possibility?
The answer is: hold on.

Because when you decide to stock up at a dollar, and there is news of official market regulation, the price of socks drops to 50 cents, and you have already lost half of your money. Then, even if you cut your losses, you can only keep the remaining half of the cost.

Hold on. If you fail, the only difference is that you will go from losing 50 cents per pair of socks to losing 90 cents per pair of socks.

Once you succeed, there will be a real shortage of socks in the market without any market regulation. Then you will go from losing 50 cents per pair to making 4 yuan per pair!
At this time, you should not be thinking about: how to choose between a certain loss of 50 cents and a high probability of losing 90 cents.

Instead, it should be: I have already lost 20 cents, so should I invest another cents and gamble on the % possibility of making back all the losses and earning another dollars.

Perhaps this statement is still not appropriate enough.

——Then add one more condition.

——You spent one million to buy one million pairs of socks at the price of one dollar a pair. This one million was all borrowed by you!
Now, there is a rumor in the market that "the authorities are 80% likely to withdraw", and the price of socks has dropped to 50 cents, and you have already lost 500,000 yuan.

If you sell your one million pairs of socks now, you can only get back 500,000.

Even if you use all the money you collect to pay off your debts, you will still have a foreign debt of 500,000 yuan, which you will have to pay off slowly with your monthly salary of several thousand yuan.

But if you grit your teeth and hold on, there is an 80% chance that the price of socks will drop to one cent, and the goods you stockpiled can only be sold for yuan. After paying off the yuan debt, you will still have yuan of debt left.

But there is still a 20% chance that the price of socks will rise to five yuan. Not only will you be able to pay off your one million yuan debt, but you can also make another four million yuan in net profit!

At this glance, it becomes clear.

The first option is to give up and accept the debt of $500,000.

The second option is to pay the price of 80% to assume a debt of 20 yuan in exchange for the opportunity for % to change their fate, turn losses into profits, and earn an additional million yuan in profits.

In fact, this example is still not 100% appropriate.

Because whether you lose 500,000 or 900,000, even if your salary is only 3,000 or 5,000, there will always be a day when you can pay it back.

The sky won't fall.

But the consequences of military decisions will inevitably result in death!
Either a dead enemy or a dead comrade!
A wrong decision that was thought to have a 50% chance of success, but actually only had a 20% chance of success, may still allow you to get that 20% chance of success if you persist in implementing it.

However, after a wrong decision has been made, it is 100% impossible to turn around and make another "correct decision".

Because most soldiers cannot see or understand whether the decision is right or wrong, or whether the success rate is high - at least they cannot determine it.

As long as we hold on, the morale of the army can be maintained. No matter how small the possibility is, it is still a possibility.

But once the decision is changed, even the dumbest or slowest soldier will know that your previous decision was wrong.

Once the morale of the army is broken, even if there is a 99% chance, failure is inevitable.

So, Yizhixie left.

Walked very determinedly.

Even though there was heavy fog, which seemed to create extremely favorable conditions for the Xiongnu in attacking Gaoque, Yizhixie still did not let the army, which had already begun to sneak out of the camp and march towards Yunzhong, turn around and come back to attack Gaoque.

——This is the reason why orders issued in the morning cannot be changed overnight.

The orders issued by the court must be cautious and well thought out.

Once it is issued, it cannot be changed overnight.

And the experience of dealing with the Han people over the years - especially as the son of the Right Wise King, growing up beside his father, the former Right Wise King, naturally made Yizhixie learn a lot of "conspiracies and tricks" from the Han people.

For example, this time, Yizhixie led his army to withdraw from Gaoque and moved to Yunzhong, using the Han people's strategy of "increasing stoves and reducing soldiers".

Of the remaining 70,000 troops, more than 60,000 had actually been taken away by Yizhixie.

There were actually only about 10,000 people left in the Xiongnu camp outside Gaoque, plus the wounded and the elderly and weak.

Cheng Bushi and Zhidu of Gaoque were still in a state of panic, unable to sleep or eat. They inspected the defenses of the pass day and night, fearing that the Huns would take advantage of the fog to attack.

And Yizhixie, under the cover of the fog, successfully deceived the Han soldiers in Gaoque and headed towards Yunzhong City quietly.

——In Yunzhong City, an extremely brutal battle to defend the city will inevitably break out.

And there is a high probability that it will fail.

Because in the early years, Wei Shang, the governor of Yunzhong, was still there, and Yunzhong City was still under the leadership of Wei Shang, the county governor. Every household was in mourning, and even Wei Shang himself was injured, and five of his eight sons died. At the cost of two tragic deaths, Yunzhong was barely saved.

After that battle, the Huns knew that Yunzhong City was difficult to capture and never came again.

He also made a statue of Wei Shang and worshipped him morning and evening, as if he were offering sacrifices to a god.

But now, Wei Shang is gone.

After losing Wei Shang, Yunzhong City, which had lost its backbone, had lived in peace for so many years because of Wei Shang.

The swords of the people in the clouds are no longer effective...

Therefore, Yizhixie led his troops eastward from Gaoque on the other side of the river, north of Hetao, and aimed directly at Yunzhong.

And on the same piece of land - also in Hetao, there was a Han army heading westwards, with the target: Hexi.

It seemed that the Han and Xiongnu sides had reached a tacit understanding early on, with the Yellow River-Gaoque as the boundary - the Xiongnu on the north went east, and the Han army on the south went west through Jiangxi.

But unlike Yizhixie's going to Yunzhong to make a strategic exchange and stop the loss, the Han army crossed the Hetao and went to Hexi in order to further expand the results of the battle on the basis of obtaining Gaoque.

——The glory of the emperor comes from his great skills and courage!

Taking the worst-case scenario as a prerequisite, that is, Gaoque would be recaptured by the Huns, Emperor Rong made an extremely bold decision.

Even if Gaoque will be recaptured by the Huns, we must take advantage of the fact that Gaoque is still in our hands to take over Hexi!
In this way, even if Gaoque was lost, it would only return to the previous situation where the Han and the Huns used Gaoque as the boundary and glared at each other on the north and south banks of the river.

By then, Hexi will belong to the Han Dynasty.

The Western Regions may also welcome the first Han merchant caravan.

——A 'caravan' dispatched by the government, not smuggled out of the country...

(End of this chapter)