My life is like walking on thin ice

Chapter 500 Focus on the heart
It has to be said that Emperor Liu Rong's strategic vision undoubtedly fully demonstrated the phrase "estimate the enemy and be lenient".

——Based on the premise that Gaoque is captured by the Huns again and that everything returns to the state before the Battle of Gaoque broke out, consider the next strategic plan!

Not to mention that even now, the four words "strategic plan" are still closely related to "temple calculation", or divination, in the Han Dynasty.

Even in later times, being able to "foresee the enemy's weakness" so thoroughly after achieving a major victory in the early stages of a battle is also an astonishingly outstanding strategic vision.

It’s not difficult to understand either.

After the Battle of Gaoque broke out, Gaoque was undoubtedly the biggest gain and loss for both the Han and the Xiongnu.

——The Han Empire captured Gaoque and even achieved the strategic goal of the entire battle. Many of the subsequent arrangements were to preserve the fruits of victory to the greatest extent possible.

The loss of Gaoque by the Xiongnu was another severe and unacceptable loss since the change of ownership of Hetao.

In the second half of the battle, all possible responses of the Huns revolved around the proposition of "recapturing Gaoque".

Judging from this battle alone, the next goals of both sides are very clear.

Han Family: Defend Gaoque!
Xiongnu: Retake Gaoque!
On this basis, both sides will undoubtedly adjust their ultimate strategic goals according to the actual situation in order to make them more in line with reality.

For example, after realizing that the recapture of Gaoque could no longer be achieved through "barely tolerable casualties", the Xiongnu Right Wise King Luandi Yizhixie had to adjust the strategic goal of this battle from the somewhat fanciful "recapture of Gaoque" to: regaining the battlefield in a place other than Gaoque, such as Yunzhong.

Logically speaking, one side wants to defend Gaoque, and the other side wants to recapture Gaoque - the two are completely opposite and conflicting, so of course only one side can achieve the goal.

Even if we have to retreat and adjust our strategic goals based on actual conditions, the party that has a greater difficulty in achieving its goals should give in.

Just like the Battle of Gaoque, compared with the difficulty of the Han Dynasty defending Gaoque, it was obviously more difficult and more difficult for the Huns to recapture Gaoque.

So the Huns gave in.

The Huns retreated - they no longer considered recapturing Gaoque as their strategic goal. Even if the Han suffered losses in other places, they should still regard defending Gaoque and preserving the greatest fruits of victory in the Gaoque battle as the highest strategic goal of the entire battle.

But in the end, Emperor Liu Rong still decided to make preparations for both scenarios.

If the goal can be achieved and Gaoque can be defended, that would be the best.

If the achievement fails, Gaoque may be taken back by the Huns. The Han should seize the time and do something while Gaoque is still in their hands.

The strategic advantages that Gaoque brought to the Han Dynasty are needless to say.

——Going north, you can go straight into the heartland of the Xiongnu, with no obstacles along the way and no natural barriers;

If they retreated, they could also block the Xiongnu at Gaoque, making it impossible for them to send even a single soldier to the Hetao area south of Gaoque and the Yellow River.

To the west, Gaoque, controlled by the Han Dynasty, meant that the army on the "Western Expedition" no longer had to worry about the Xiongnu in Gaoque moving from north to south and threatening the army's flanks when they crossed the Hetao area from east to west.

Taking into account the importance of Mu'nan to the Xiongnu and the fact that the Han Dynasty has not yet achieved significant results in the construction of its cavalry forces, it is not difficult to conclude that even if Gaoque was obtained, it would be difficult for the Han Dynasty to cause a significant blow to the Mu'nan area within three to five years.

On the contrary, Hexi, which had originally made the Han family in a dilemma and hesitant, became fertile ground for the Han family to concentrate on "plotting" after Gaoque was taken.

In this way, Liu Rong's thoughts became much simpler.

——No matter whether Gaoque, which is controlled by the Han family at the moment, can become China's "since ancient times" or it is an experience lasting a few months, the strategic opportunity brought by Gaoque to the Han family must not be wasted.

It's like a gambler who accidentally makes a huge fortune that is equal to several small goals.

It is obviously impossible to stop at this point, and it is even more unrealistic to win more and more. Instead, it is normal to lose all the few small goals you have won and then lose all your wealth.

Therefore, instead of worrying about how to gamble next to keep the profits of these small goals, it is better to do something while you have the money now, with the premise that "you will lose it all sooner or later".

For example, buying a house.
Buy a car~
Or buy some stocks, put some money into a fixed deposit, etc.

In this way, even if you lose the small goals you have won in the future, you will still have a house and a car left.

Or it could be some valuable wealth that cannot be quickly converted into cash but will benefit your future.

The emperor Liu Rong's strategic judgment on Gaoque and Hexi is similar.

——Can Gaoque be defended? Will a black swan event occur, allowing the Huns to accidentally recapture Gaoque?
To put it bluntly, let alone Emperor Liu Rong who was far away in Chang'an - even Cheng Buzhi and Zhidu at the front line probably wouldn't dare to guarantee it.

Liu Rong has done everything he could.

It is necessary to delegate power and give people what is needed. The logistics supplies, food, fodder and weapons should be delivered in a saturation manner.

Liu Rong did everything the Han emperor could do, within his ability, and to increase the probability of "defending Gaoque".

Next, as for Gaoque, the only thing Emperor Liu Rong in Chang'an could do was to obey fate.

Because all human efforts have been made.

But just waiting like this - waiting for Gao Que to send back the news of 'held' or 'lost', is undoubtedly very torturous.

Tian Zirong was unwilling to do so, and he didn't like to be like a gambler, waiting for the result stupidly after throwing all the chips into Gaoque.

So, Tian Zirong naturally made a slightly rash but timely strategic decision: move westward!
To put it bluntly, at least half - or even more than half - of the reason why the Han family wanted Gaoque was to eliminate the worries and flank threats when planning to take over Hexi.

With the flanks safe, they can penetrate deep into the Hexi Corridor, gradually take control of the Hexi region, and then further extend their influence to the Western Regions.

The Western Regions were the main reason why the Han dynasty wanted to acquire Hexi, and Hexi was the main reason why the Han dynasty wanted to acquire Gaoque. As for the direct military threat to the Munan region after acquiring Gaoque, it was not to directly destroy the Xiongnu nation and race, or drive them to the northern desert, so that there would be no king in the south of the Munan region.

In fact, even though the Huns suffered setbacks in a series of major battles between the Han and Huns in the past two years, we still have to admit that this time point was still the peak period of the Hun Empire.

In terms of comprehensive strength, the Han and the Huns were still evenly matched.

In the past, the Xiongnu dominated the grasslands and controlled the Hetao area, taking a strategic offensive stance against the Han Dynasty.
Now and in the future, the Han Dynasty, which has Hetao and Gaoque in its hands, can only turn from defense to offense and let the Huns take a strategic defensive posture.

However, under the premise that the comprehensive strength of both sides is comparable and evenly matched, the strategic attack and defense only slightly tilts the original 50-50 strength comparison between the two sides to 64-65.

Even with a 6:4 advantage, it was still far from enough for the Han army to go north out of Gaoque, march straight into Longcheng, and destroy the city, so that there would be no royal court south of the curtain.

Therefore, Gaoque's greatest value to the Han family at this stage is not to support the Han family's short-term strategic plan for the Munan region;
Instead, it provided strategic support for the Han Dynasty to advance westward, control Hexi, and get involved in the Western Regions.

From a God's perspective, Emperor Rong's "brilliant chess move" was undoubtedly to transfer Yizhixie to Yunzhong as a strategic exchange, which minimized the benefits brought to the Xiongnu side.

If everything goes well, when the Xiongnu Chanyu Ting returns from the west under the leadership of Junchen this autumn, the strategic situation between the Han and Xiongnu sides will be like this.

——The Han Dynasty retains the complete original map and has a high probability of losing Yunzhong City, or Yunzhong is lost and recovered, and the military and civilians of Yunzhong are severely damaged.

The territory that originally belonged to the Xiongnu further lost Hexi on the basis of losing Hetao.

The border line between the Han and Xiongnu between Munan and Hetao will also be pushed northward from the big river south of Gaoque to a range of dozens of miles north of Gaoque.

What is more crucial is that originally, if the Huns wanted to go to the Western Regions from the Munan area, they could go south from Gaoque, step into the Hetao area, turn west, and then directly step into the Western Regions through the Hexi Corridor.

With Gaoque changing hands and even Hexi coming under the control of the Han, the Huns had to go around a long way north if they wanted to go to the Western Regions from Munan.

People in later generations had many doubts about the fact that the Han Dynasty implemented the system of counties and fiefdoms in parallel in the early Western Han Dynasty.

——Why not directly govern it?

——Why not turn the whole world into counties and rule them directly from the court in Chang'an?
The answer to this question is obvious: in this era, distance is also a key factor affecting the central government's control over local areas.

The closer to the capital, the higher and stronger the control the central government has over the place, which is the so-called "foot of the imperial city."

The farther away a place is from the capital, the lower and weaker the control the central government has over the place, which is the so-called "the mountains are high and the emperor is far away".

The foundation of the Han Dynasty: the mausoleum town system, was essentially about forcibly relocating local tyrants far away in Guandong to areas near Chang'an, where the court had greater control, so as to save time and effort in suppressing them.

On the other hand, it is not difficult to find the relationship between the strength of the central government's control over a certain region and its geographical distance.

——In the entire Guanzhong area, whether it is Lantian and Xinfeng near Chang'an, or Henei which is also in Guanzhong but thousands of miles away, the control of the Chang'an court over the local counties can be said to be as easy as commanding one's own arm.

Although it also follows the objective rule that the greater the distance, the weaker the control, the difference is not obvious.

But once they were out of the pass - to the counties outside the pass such as Henan and Hedong, the control of the Chang'an court and the implementation of the central government's orders in the local area would visibly drop by three or five levels.

The further east you go, the weaker the presence of the central court in Chang'an and the weaker the enforcement of court orders. On the contrary, the presence of local counties and vassal states becomes stronger.

Even in the places farthest from Chang'an - the Kingdom of Yan in the northeast, and Wu and Huai in the southwest, the local people and officials did not know the princes, prefects and county magistrates, but did not know the emperor in Chang'an.

However, it is also highly likely that only the edicts of the princes are regarded as "imperial orders", and only the decrees of the county governors and county magistrates are regarded as systems.

As for the emperor in Chang'an and the central court, to the common people and officials in these places, they were more like gods in the heavenly palace - they had heard of them but never seen them.

The same phenomenon applies on the grassland.

In this era when transportation basically relies on walking and communication basically relies on shouting, even the Huns, who had a slight advantage in transportation and information exchange efficiency due to abundant horses, could not escape this law.

The tribes that are closer to the Chanyu's court are more obedient.

The tribes in remote areas that are far away from the Chanyu Court and whose bases are rarely passed by by the nobles, have less respect for the Chanyu Court, are more stubborn, and are more rebellious.

The successive losses of Hetao and Gaoque, on an intuitive level, gave the Han Dynasty the opportunity to contact and communicate with the Western Regions from Hexi, but it also significantly lengthened the actual distance between the Munan area and the Western Regions.

A long journey means a long distance.

In this era, the increasing distance is directly linked to "weaker control", and can even be equated with it.

Originally, the Western Regions lived only under the tyranny of the Huns. If they were not careful, the Huns from the southern part of Mu - the tribes from the Hexi region - could beat the tiny countries in the Western Regions into a pulp.

But now, Hetao is owned by the Han family, Gaoque is owned by the Han family;
In the foreseeable future, Hexi is very likely to be controlled by the Han Dynasty.

If the Huns want to show their love to the filial sons and grandchildren in the Western Regions, not only do they have to go through a long detour, but the core tribes in the Munan area have to go there in person!
But when we arrived in the Western Regions, we saw that the Han people had arrived there first!
For the countries in the Western Regions in the past, there was only one king and father in the Western Regions, and that was the great Xiongnu Chanyu.

After Gaoque changes hands and Hexi is controlled by the Han Dynasty in the future, the Xiongnu Khan, the kind father, will undoubtedly not be so kind in the eyes of the countries in the Western Regions.

Instead, it was the newly emerged second emperor: the Emperor of Han, who was said to have beaten the first emperor: the Khan of the Xiongnu to a pulp?
Although the Western Regions are vast, they are dotted with small countries.

Just taking 'country' as the unit, there were as many as seventy-two Western Regions countries that paid tribute to the Xiongnu Chanyu's court!
In the past, these seventy-two small countries, as well as those tribes that were too small to be called "countries", were undoubtedly subject to the swords of the Huns.

So what will the scene be like in the future when the Han Dynasty sets foot in the Western Regions?

Among the seventy-two countries in the Western Regions, weren't there a dozen or so rebels who had 'suffered from the Xiongnu for a long time' and wanted to embrace the more gentle Chinese agricultural civilization?
Especially those farming tribes that mainly rely on farming and are incompatible with nomadic civilization, wouldn’t they have a natural instinctive liking and closeness to the Han people, who are also an agricultural civilization and the epic leader of agricultural civilization?
(End of this chapter)