super energy power

"In the coming time, the price of oil will fall. Therefore, I think the country's oil policy should be conservative. Maintain the status quo and be prepared for a drop in oil prices." Sioux Cheng's straightforward answer expresses his opinion .In other words, he re-emphasized his own opinion.

Wrong choice will lead to great loss.If possible, Su Cheng would try his best to persuade Su Zhenguo. This has nothing to do with the individual, but with the country.

If it is said that the triangular debt is the meat rotten in the pot, the wrong steps of the oil futures are equivalent to giving the meat to others.

Both Director Mao and Zhu Enbo were very serious.In such a private occasion, facing the three men surnamed Su, old, middle-aged and young, can't help but make people imagine.

Zhu Enbo does not want to offend Sioux City, but he also has a strong sense of responsibility, insisting that Chapter 270 cannot be put on the table: "At the end of November, the United Nations passed the war case, and the current situation is that the United States has won legal justice. They will launch a war against Iraq at any time. Once the war starts, the price of oil will rise to a level that we cannot afford.”

Zhu Enbo was a little excited when he said it, and his small eyes were wide open: "Su Dong, our country has small capital and low profits, and the rise in international oil prices will eventually be transmitted to the domestic manufacturing system. At that time, chemical fertilizers, agricultural The prices of film, fishing, and fishery supplies will also rise, driving up the prices of grain, vegetables, and meat. The price of chemical fibers will also rise, that is, the price of clothes will rise. In addition, the price of rubber and fuel will also increase. The state increases the burden."

In China in 1990, there were fewer vehicles.The energy used for heating and production is mainly coal, and it is not like the United States that has an incomparable urge for fuel.But the price of chemical fiber is a big problem. Nouns such as "Dacron", "nylon", "polyester" and "acrylic fiber" are all chemical fiber raw materials made of petroleum.At this time in China, the output of cotton and wool was very small, and petroleum and chemical fiber products were the main source of clothing materials. Domestic clothing prices were already expensive enough.If it is hit again by this blow, the textile industry will have big problems first.

Su Cheng admitted that what Zhu Enbo said was reasonable, but it was just a truth.

He thought about it.Said: "What you are talking about is only the change of oil prices under normal conditions. The problem now is that the Gulf crisis has already pre-planned the rise in oil prices. From 18 US dollars to 38 US dollars, the highest is 40 US dollars. The increase has more than doubled, even if the war really (Baidu search: , the fastest update for reading novels) Besides, the oil price has now dropped to around US$35, once you buy more, you will first face a huge paper loss.”

"At the beginning of the war, oil must have a big increase. As the war prolongs, the price of oil will increase steadily. Moreover, the war may involve Saudi Arabia. Once the Middle East is broken, how much will the oil price rise? It is possible to be outrageous..." Zhu Enbo breathed a sigh of relief, and said: "Don't look at our country as an oil exporter, it is for crude oil itself. Our country imports a lot of refined oil every year, and petrochemical products More, at that time. These things will grow wildly, and if you don’t buy crude oil to make up for it, you will cause a lot of losses.”

Saudi Arabia is the world's largest oil producer and also has the most oil storage facilities, like OPEC's buffer pool.If Iraq invades Saudi Arabia and produces certain results, the world oil market will collapse immediately.

Director Mao nodded unconsciously.In their view, Iraq, which has hundreds of thousands of cavalry and a large amount of sophisticated equipment, poses a real threat to Saudi Arabia.During the start of the ground war, there were problems with the utilization of Saudi crude oil supplies.

The public speaks the public's truth, and the mother-in-law speaks the mother-in-law's truth, which is the current situation.Although it was difficult to convince the other party, Sioux City still tried its best, saying: "What will happen in the Gulf War, let's not discuss it yet. However, from mid-August to mid-December, it has been 8 months. The Americans have not started fighting yet, just to be fully prepared for the worst-case scenario. China is afraid of rising oil prices? The United States and Western countries are even more afraid, and no one wants a third oil crisis. Therefore, as participants and organizations in the war Or, the United States has done a lot of work. I guess, once the war starts, the United States will put the strategic oil reserves on the market. The oil reserves of the member countries of the International Energy Agency are as high as 12 billion barrels, which can last for 4 days of world consumption. A lot of power."

Zhu Enbo shook his head and said: "At the beginning of the war, the United States may release strategic oil. However, once the oil supply in the Middle East becomes tight, or the front line is extended, oil prices will rise in retaliation. The United States will not only stop the release of strategic oil, but also Maybe there will be a counter-purchase. Let me say one possibility, Iraq uses missiles and other equipment to blockade the Persian Gulf, and at the same time attack Saudi oil facilities, the oil supply will immediately become difficult."

Historically, the United States and multinational forces deployed a large number of anti-aircraft guns and missiles in Saudi oil fields, and used thick concrete to protect the control computers of the oil fields, just to avoid Iraqi tricks.

Saudi Arabia has not lost the chain, using a large number of small boats to shuttle transportation, transporting oil to large tankers outside the Persian Gulf, and striving to maintain oil exports at pre-war levels.

Not only that, major Western oil companies also cooperated with the government's appeal and did not take the opportunity to drive up prices.On the day the war broke out, Exxon, Chevron, Continental Petroleum, Atlantic Petroleum and other group companies all announced to freeze the price of oil...

However, all these things that did not necessarily happen were brought back by Bush Sr. He spent an untold amount of energy trying to convince the Saudi royal family and the oil companies.In the four to five months since Iraq invaded Kuwait, the diplomatic direction of the US government has been devoted to this.

It is now the end of December, and Sioux City believes that these historical facts will still happen.But he couldn't use that as an excuse.

There are too many variables.

It is true that the Saudi oil fields may be ignited, the oil roads in the Middle East may indeed be cut off, and oil companies may indeed risk their lives for money...

However, before it happens, who knows?

In 1990, China was not only counting on the Gulf War to become the Vietnam War, but also counting on the Soviet Union to aid Iraq.According to the Cold War thinking, it is normal for the Soviet Union to subsidize slave countries to participate in the war.Although their country is in chaos, it is not difficult to think about sending a few ships of arms.

With hindsight, reasoning after the fact, many people can speak clearly and logically.But no one can guess the details before the war begins.

A boring guy like Gorbachev has made half his life's wrong decisions. Who knows whether the next decision will be right or wrong?

The luck of China's reform lies in the fact that there are countries that keep making mistakes before us.The Soviet Union adopted "shock therapy", and as a result, the economy was in a mess. China then adopted a dual-track price system to delay the crisis caused by full marketization.The Japanese Prime Minister happily agreed to the "Plaza Agreement". As a result, the appreciation of the yen far exceeded expectations, and China adopted control of the exchange rate...

No matter how wise a judge is, in the face of the fog, he is actually confused.

Su Cheng is not confused, but it is impossible to convince Zhu Enbo.He turned his target to Director Mao and Su Zhenguo, and said: "The task of the State Reserve Bureau should first of all be to ensure the safety of the country's material supply. We are now an oil exporter, so we should first consider hedging and choose to buy short. Our profit remains the same, the oil price falls, and our profit also remains the same. Let’s see what happens in the oil market.”

This is the safest way. Although you can't make money, it's not easy to lose money.

Zhu Enbo said uncomfortably: "My work unit is in the State Reserve Bureau, but my report is intended to be provided to central enterprises such as Sinopec and PetroChina. They have a profit task and a guarantee task, which should be treated separately."

"It is a company in name, but Sinopec PetroChina still has the responsibility of stabilizing domestic prices in essence."

Su Dongyuan snorted dissatisfied: "Twilight!"

If it was Su Xing, he would immediately bow his head and be taught.

However, Su Cheng rolled his eyes and said, "During the war, anything can happen. When it is difficult to make a judgment, it is natural to focus on stability. Such a big country, does it still need to use market speculation to raise funds? Winning is nothing to be proud of, losing is trouble. Besides, people who enter the casino will always lose their pants.”

When Hou Haiqing heard Sioux City talk about the casino again, his eyelids moved, and he quickly lowered his head.

Su Dongyuan grasped the conversation, and said in a choked voice: "The futures market is a casino, why did you go in?"

"I'm still young, I can afford to lose." This was aimed at Mu Qi.

Su Zhenguo waved his hand, interrupted the gunpowder-flavored conversation between the two, and asked with a smile: "Xiao Zhu, tell me, if you are asked to buy futures, how much are you going to buy?"

Rare opportunity to show!

Zhu Enbo mobilized his brain desperately: it is not good to buy more futures, and it is probably not good to buy less.

He thought of the $8700 million futures bill in Sioux City.Zhu Enbo hesitated for a moment, and said: "I plan to do short-term futures for a period of time, with a contract value of about 2 million U.S. dollars. When the war starts, I will move to the medium and long-term. This will not only ensure profitability, but also ensure my country's oil security. Increase the profits of the oil industry. According to the situation, the medium and long-term futures contracts can be increased to 5 million US dollars."

Judging from the government expenditure in 1990, this amount of money is really quite a lot.

Su Zhenguo turned to Su Cheng and asked, "How much are you going to buy?"

"The mortgage is 1 million U.S. dollars, and the contract amount is between 10 billion and [-] million." Su Cheng said with absolute certainty.

Zhu Enbo was stunned, thinking: How dare you!

Sioux City sees the nose and the heart.

Su Zhenguo asked noncommittally: "What about the petrochemical base of the Haicang Project? Are you still involved?"

"Of course." Su Cheng's tone was more certain. ! ! !