super energy power

In Azerbaijan in 1994, the thirst for funds had reached its peak. Aliyev had no choice but to sell 11 oil blocks in one go. .

What he didn't expect was that the Aqijiu oil block, which was not very promising, turned into a super oil field with reserves of billions or even tens of billions of barrels of crude oil.

At this time, what Aliyev thinks is far from the reduced share, but the increased income.

An oil field with a daily output of 15 barrels of crude oil, no matter whether it is a 40% or 50% share, will always bring more income than an oil field with a daily output of 1.5 barrels. In general, a sum of foreign exchange is not only a solution to the unresolved problems, but also a catalyst for stabilizing society.

Whether it is Aliyev's allies or his enemies, their eyes are fixed on the income of the government. If the oil field is not profitable enough, it is uncertain how many troubles will arise.

However, the increase in crude oil production in Azerbaijan is not a good thing for OPEC.

Regardless of the competitive relationship between the Middle East and the Caspian Sea region, just the current sluggish demand for crude oil is causing headaches for OPEC members. Adding hundreds of thousands of barrels of crude oil to the market every day is the strategy of reducing crude oil production that they have been discussing. Turned into a flower in the water, the moon in the mirror.

In the past, when crude oil fell, the common practice of OPEC was to cut production. The daily crude oil production of countries in the world is about 8000 million barrels. Among them, many oil-producing countries such as the United States and Britain do not export crude oil. Therefore, the real decision of crude oil production is The amount put on the international market can only be the net exporter of crude oil.

Generally speaking, reducing production by 100 million barrels is already a big move by OPEC, and the international crude oil price is not to say that it responds to the sound, and it is almost jittery.

A production reduction of 150 million barrels or 0 million barrels is a state of economic crisis. For OPEC with a daily output of 00 million barrels, it is a huge sacrifice for 12 countries to reduce their total production by 7%. Just over 10 barrels.

As for countries other than OPEC, Russia once made a decision to cut 30 barrels, which is almost the limit.

However, Azerbaijan suddenly increased production, and the increased production capacity exceeded 30 barrels, close to the level of [-] barrels, which means that the production reductions of the two OPEC members are all contributing to Azerbaijan.

It is impossible to expect OPEC to eliminate such a big market shock by sacrificing its own interests.

What they formed is not a charitable organization, but a monopoly organization among countries. The purpose is to obtain more profits, whether it should be or should not be.

The Saudis are the backbone of OPEC, and they are also a special existence. Since the output of crude oil is high enough, Saudi Arabia has naturally become a buffer for various oil-producing countries. Whenever crude oil needs to be reduced, the rich and powerful Saudis often take the initiative Much reduction, and whenever the world is short of crude oil, the Saudis are always the original provider of last resort.

Until shale oil, Saudi Arabia was almost the last bastion of commercial oil in the world.

Therefore, when Aliyev appeared, the Saudis were the first to receive him.

After some routine greetings, Jassim, representing the Ministry of Petroleum of Saudi Arabia, personally sent Aliyev to the hotel, and then wave after wave greeted the crowd.

Aliyev enjoys this process very much, but still remains quite cautious.

The people who come to visit now are all here to test his tone. This is because he is not strong enough. If the president of a big country wants to do this kind of thing, he should ask his subordinates to do it.

However, Aliyev is an old KGB from the Soviet era. He never took his face too seriously. He was not in a hurry, so he accompanied him with peace of mind.

It wasn't until Naimi from the Saudi Oil Ministry appeared that the two entered a state of preparation for negotiations.

Naimi, who was 59 years old at the time, was also a great man. He was the person who sat on the position of Saudi oil minister for the longest time. He was still active in the oil political circle until his 70s. As his strength increased , Naimi once entered the top 30 of the Forbes global power list, higher than the President of the United Arab Emirates.

In 1994, Naimi was not very well-known, but his strong concept, or his unique concept, was still well known by people in the oil circle.

Stable oil prices, against the decline of crude oil prices, but also against the rise of crude oil prices, is what makes Naimi completely different from other oil-producing countries.

Perhaps, this is also the reason why Naimi has been doing it longer than other big shots.

After a few short sentences, Naimi asked the question he was most concerned about through the translator: "Is Azerbaijan willing to keep the price of crude oil stable?"

"Of course." Aliyev smiled and leaned on the sofa, and said in a very comfortable posture: "Azerbaijan has just started selling crude oil to the international market. If the oil price can remain stable, so that Azerbaijan's fiscal revenue can remain stable, then naturally we will needed."

Oil revenue is the need of every oil-producing country to ensure finances. If it is lower than this standard, it will be very difficult to promote production cuts. After the Iran-Iraq War, Iran and Iraq, especially Saddam Hussein in the mad dog model, are precedents. In the difficult period after the war, not to mention letting them reduce production, the main problem is that the two countries secretly increased production.

This question was asked by the gentlemen interviewed before. Naimi nodded and said directly: "What is the budget of Azerbaijan this year?"

"About US$15 billion." Aliyev gave a lot of water.

For Azerbaijan now, 5 million U.S. dollars is enough to make ends meet. As for living well, naturally, no amount of money is enough.

According to the current oil price, even if Azerbaijan can get half of each barrel of crude oil, which is between US$8 and US$9, Azerbaijan will produce 30 barrels of crude oil per day, and if the maintenance period is removed, the annual crude oil production will be 9000 million barrels However, less than US$8 million fell into the hands of the Afghan government.

It will take a few more years, when the output of the Caspian Sea Oil Region rises sharply to 0 or even 300 million barrels per day, and the oil price doubles and then doubles, Azerbaijan will become a truly rich country.

Naimi pondered for a moment, and said: "15 billion is a reasonable figure, but can your Excellency postpone the high production period of crude oil and stabilize the currently unstable crude oil price?"

"It can be considered." Aliyev smiled.

Naimi was a little excited and said: "The OPEC ministerial meeting in January this year was originally planned to reduce production, but in the end it failed to reach a conclusion. Therefore, this summit is the last chance of this year. It is possible to get the approval of the President. I support it, and I am confident that I can convince OPEC members to finally make a decision to cut production."

"Rising oil prices are also good for Azerbaijan now." Aliyev changed the subject and said: "However, the Caspian Sea Oilfield has just started production, and the costs of the companies have not yet been recovered, and the operation of the equipment is not very smooth. It is estimated that It will take some time to convince them to postpone the production..."

"Coordinating OPEC countries also takes time, how about a month?"

"It's hard to say. In addition... the delay in production will cause short-term income shortages, and the government needs to coordinate."

Naimi tilted her head to listen to him, and wanted to roll her eyes, thinking: You just received so much signing bonus, how can you still be short of income?

The other party was the president, so Naimi had no choice but to ask calmly, "What about the coordination time?"

"Not sure... By the way, have you contacted Kazakhstan?"

Naimi immediately knew what Aliyev wanted to say, and said with a headache: "Kazakhstan has also put forward some requirements, mainly in terms of oil pipelines and oil refineries... However, Kazakhstan's crude oil export channels are different from ours... ..."

"Kazakhstan did not agree to the request to cut production?"

"Yes."

Aliyev said without expression: "I will discuss with my staff and make a decision."

"Thank you, President, for your interview." Naimi could only hope that Aliyev would make a decision that would benefit him.Although OPEC can put pressure on it, is it just for the reduction of hundreds of thousands of barrels of crude oil production?But not necessarily worth it.

Aliyev watched Naimi leave, and said slowly, "Let's get the news out."

"Okay." His media director nodded slightly, took the elevator in the hotel suite, and left the building.

At this moment, the financial reporters surrounding the hotel expecting to get first-hand news about OPEC were anxiously waiting.

... (To be continued.)