super energy power

"The price difference between London and New York is currently fluctuating between 80 cents and 1 cent, and our contracts are roughly divided into this range." Qi Xiao reported his latest results at a flying speed.

"That's an average of $1?"

"It's higher than this price, about 1.1 US dollars. The price difference is more complicated to make. It takes a lot of time to sell short and buy short the crude oil contracts in London and New York respectively. In addition, it takes up a lot of funds..."

"Increase the leverage."

"Because it is a contract for difference, we have put the leverage at 100 times."

"The leverage of the price difference contract is 1000 times, it doesn't matter." Su Cheng said casually.

"1000 times... this... In fact, 100 times leverage is already a lot. When I came here, it was a deposit of 2 million US dollars. If the price difference was increased by 10 cents, there would be a profit of almost 1 million US dollars. Put it at 1000 times... ..." Qi Xiao didn't know what to say. Although he had received a lot of advanced experience, the Chinese in the 90s tended to be conservative in their understanding of risks. Using 1 million U.S. dollars to pry 100 billion U.S. dollars is enough to make people frightened Jumping up and prying up 1000 billion US dollars is a bit beyond his psychological bottom line.

Even knowing that there is a 1000-fold leverage, Qi Xiao still wouldn't make such a decision.

Sioux City is completely different. Although he has not received much financial guidance, in later generations of oil finance activities, contracts for difference, like hedging, are basically compulsory courses in oil finance.Any company involved in the import and export of crude oil needs to consider the price difference of crude oil.Although the price difference between London and New York crude oil is only a little over US$1, but in the years when crude oil was tens of US dollars, the price difference between London and New York often reached more than ten US dollars, and the price difference contract is also due to the global flow of crude oil , has become an important indicator. Many financial institutions may not do crude oil futures, but they will do contract for difference.

Except for crude oil price spread, crack spread and other vocabulary, which are almost all exam questions, even if Sioux City starts from experience, it will not be suspicious because of 100 times or 1000 times leverage.

However, in the years when crude oil CFDs were not yet popular, ordinary traders did not dare to use such terrifying leverage. After all, although such CFDs are impeccable in theory, it still takes time to determine how well they actually perform. prove.A bank will not blindly bet hundreds or even thousands of times of funds in order to make millions of dollars of profits. In case of any bugs, that is the amount of funds that will cause a bank to fail.

The reason why Soros’s Quantum Fund became so famous is that they dared to use ultra-high leverage and used hedging techniques such as contracts for difference to eliminate risks. Tens of millions of dollars of capital to leverage a market of hundreds of billions of dollars.

However, these are a bit too high-end for the financial world in 94 years.Contracts for difference appeared in the market as early as the 70s, but it was not until after 00 that they were gradually recognized by large financial institutions. Qi Xiao had to find some small and medium-sized financiers who were willing to do this transaction. Obviously more cautious.

Su Cheng recognized Qi Xiao's concerns, this decision should be made by him, he smiled reassuringly, and asked in a soothing voice: "What does the other party think? Did the spread trader give advice?"

Qi Xiao looked down at his feet and said, "They have suggested using higher leverage."

"How many?"

"300 times to 500 times." Qi Xiao wiped his forehead, there was no sweat, but he felt that he should sweat.

"Then follow what they say." It was difficult for Su Cheng to guess how much the CFD could earn, and finally took safe measures, even though it was beyond Qi Xiao's ability to bear it.

"Well, in this case, the size of our price difference contract will be 600 billion to 1000 billion US dollars. For every 10 cents in the price difference between the two places, there will be a profit of 3 million to 6 million US dollars. If the price difference expands to 1 In terms of US dollars, it is US$30 billion to US$60 billion..." Qi Xiao said, and began to touch his forehead again, and at the same time said softly: "If the price difference narrows, we will lose that much."

Whether it is 30 billion US dollars or 60 billion US dollars, it is difficult for Dahua Industrial to bear now. They hold the most shares in the Pan-Asia Fund. Once the price difference is narrowed, the best result will also mean Dahua will Hua Industrial's trip was in vain. In a bad situation, Dahua Industrial may have to pay for it.

Qi Xiao's reminder also made Su Cheng realize the huge risk.

He nodded slowly, and said: "The average price difference of the contracts we bought is 1.1 US dollars. Thinking about it, the price difference between New York and London crude oil cannot be reduced to zero, so don't be burdened. The contract is well fulfilled."

"Okay." Qi Xiao could only choose to feel at ease.Indeed, crude oil prices in New York and London can go up and down, but the possibility of narrowing the price difference to zero is almost impossible.Maybe at a certain moment, the price of the two will be the same, but most of the time, there will always be a price difference between the two.

Especially in this range of sharp price changes, there are too few factors to narrow the price difference between the two.Spot traders will not transport the crude oil they need from London to refineries in North America. Similarly, it is impossible for spot traders in the United States to choose suppliers in London because of the price difference of tens of cents. Crude oil production companies The same is true, they will decide which delivery warehouse to send crude oil to a long time ago, and unless the price difference is so large that there is sufficient profit, it will be difficult for them to change such a decision.

However, things are unpredictable, especially in this kind of big and small gambling games. Those who lost their fortunes died on 13 "big" games in a row. In the casino, you can find the boss, and who to talk to in the crude oil betting transaction.

Su Cheng didn't dare to say with certainty that the price difference of crude oil had narrowed, but he inferred this part of the information based on the known situation.

Before making the inference, Su Cheng thought a lot and prepared a lot, but now that he thinks about it again, he feels that he was not prepared enough, that he didn't think enough, just like a student who is about to take the exam, he always has an unexplainable anxiety.

"Send me all the newspapers for today. The major newspapers, as well as the evening papers, will send the new ones immediately." Su Cheng put his worries behind him, and after Qi Xiao went out, he gave Yang Ming instructions One sound.

At this time, it was five thirty in the afternoon.

There are still 2 hours until the end of the manual price outcry, and five hours before the end of the electronic price outcry. If it is a normal day, the oil price should be ready to rise slowly, because many customers are not willing to hold the contract overnight. They would rather If you earn less, you will also close your positions before the daily trading deadline, and then re-select your route after the trading day starts tomorrow. Some profitable and cautious customers will also choose this way.

Only Su Cheng took this day longer than a week, or in other words, he actually didn't want to stay overnight, lest something uncontrollable happen again.

Yang Ming agreed, and asked, "Are they all newspapers, or financial ones?"

"Finance and economics are the main ones, and the "Daily Telegraph" is also needed, and the Sun newspaper is unnecessary." The Daily Telegraph is the serious newspaper with the largest circulation in the UK, and the Sun is the s with the largest circulation in the UK. The intelligence newspaper is also the newspaper with the largest circulation in the UK.Su Cheng looked at his watch while talking, and said, "The time difference between London and Tokyo is 9 hours, right? Find some Japanese newspapers and see what they say, first translate the headlines."

"Are you waiting for the latest news?"

"Ah."

"The "Daily Telegraph" seems to have an electronic newspaper. It is said that there are real-time news. I will ask."

"Wait." Su Cheng asked with wide eyes, "What is an electronic newspaper?"

"It seems to be called Wanwei. You can see it on the computer. It has the daily front page headlines and the latest news of the "Daily Telegraph." Yang Ming is in charge of the office in Sucheng. Work, on the other hand, is to collect information. He knows that Su Cheng is very interested in computer technology, so he deliberately learns about this information.

However, Su Cheng fell into deep nostalgia. For future generations of college students, life without the Internet is unimaginable, and he never forgot about the Internet at first.I originally thought that it would take a few years before I could read some outdated news on Kitten, but I didn't expect that the British media is so advanced, and it is still biased towards the Conservative Party's Daily Telegraph.

"Su Dong?"

Su Cheng woke up like a dream: "Find someone, let me see this station."

After a while, a staff member came up to install and debug the computer for Sioux City.

On the spherical 15-inch monitor, the website of the Daily Telegraph flashed out danglingly, using the IBM Web Explorer browser from the medieval era, which was so simple that Sioux City couldn't bear to see it.

I don't know if it's the ibm's dispatcher or the IT staff of the London International Petroleum Exchange. While operating the keyboard, he explained to Sioux City in detail: "We are using ibm's os2 system now, and the software you see is ibm's browsing software. In addition to the html 3 it supports, the most powerful thing is that it integrates emails and news, and you can see the Daily Telegraph station you want with just a few small operations."

"Integrated email and news functions? So powerful?" Su Cheng looked at the IT man in front of him with sad eyes, completely indifferent to his excitement.

The it man smiled back, looked at Su Cheng with pitiful eyes, and thought proudly: He must have passed out by now, probably he doesn't even know what a browser is.

Sure enough, Su Cheng said in English: "Come and help **, I want to read today's news."

Su Cheng was completely indifferent to this bulky and slow IBM computer.

The IT man was happily operating the computer, feeling the pulse of technology.

"Let me know if you have any new news." Su Cheng read through today's new news, but there was nothing worth paying attention to.

The it man said naturally: "Whenever you want to see new news, you just click this button to refresh..."

"Come on, do it, click after a while, and I'll get some new news." Su Cheng pushed away the chair, and sat on the sofa to read the newspaper by himself.

The it man had no choice but to sit and refresh the page.

After an unknown amount of time, a piece of news suddenly popped up.

"New news." The IT man's voice was muffled as if he was shopping with his wife.

"What's the content?" Su Cheng was still scanning the newspaper.

"Azerbaijan announced that it will not reduce production... Barabara... Kazakhstan will continue to build its own oil fields... OPEC will not be able to reach a production reduction agreement in the short term, and the crisis of oversupply in the crude oil market will further ferment..."

"Show me." Su Cheng seemed to bounce off the sofa, and flew to the 15-inch spherical monitor.

Today's website is even simpler than the blogs and microblogs of later generations, but the text is very clear.

Sure enough, it was news in the style of "Daily Telegraph".

Su Cheng glanced over ten lines at a glance, halfway through, he picked up the phone, and said in a deep voice: "Prepare plan S, contact Aliyev, and if you confirm the bad news, execute it immediately."

The s plan is the best result that Sioux City is waiting for. If Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan continue to increase production and OPEC cannot come up with an appropriate plan, no matter how the market interprets it, a short-term crude oil surplus will form.

The ending of crude oil's continued decline will be irreversible.

With OPEC's consistent efficiency, the time required to give a plan is at least calculated in weeks.

Convincing the oil ministers of 12 countries, and then the leaders of 12 countries, even in an emergency situation, it is difficult to draw a quick conclusion.

……