super energy power

The trading pool has become more crowded.

As the price of crude oil approached 15 dollars, many financial institutions that did not do crude oil futures, or rarely did crude oil futures also joined in. Capital insurance companies and fund companies have all set their sights on the fluctuations in oil prices.

The more than [-] traders who originally worked in the trading pool can no longer bear the orders of so many institutions and companies. Those institutions with redundant seats have to send all traders who are qualified to enter the trading pool, such as Sumitomo Corporation Hidetomo Hirano is far more than just a trader. When the major clients of the firm request to participate in crude oil trading, other traders have to put down their work in the office and go shirtless.

If more than 100 people are squeezed into a trading pool the size of a basketball court, it will be crowded. When the number of people exceeds 0, it is simply a basketball court for idiots. Yelling, you can't stop the movement of your hands, the only thing you need to be careful of is the flying elbows all over the field, if you are knocked unconscious, it will delay the opportunity.

This is also the reason why there are no female traders in the futures exchange. No matter how depressed the trading pool is, it will always come into operation sometimes, such as the coffee trading pool. When there are few people, there are only a dozen traders playing in it, but there are many people. Sometimes, there are hundreds of people, it all depends on how many arbitrage opportunities there are.

For many merchants participating in the transaction, crude oil at $15 seems to be picked for nothing. Even if they are more cautious, they will order traders to buy as soon as the oil price falls below $15.

In their minds, it is impossible for the price of crude oil to return to the 70s. In this case, as long as you buy within 15 dollars, there will always be a few cents that are tens of cents in profit, taking into account the leverage factor. A profit of 10% or even [-]% is simply at your fingertips.

The goal of BP Global Petroleum's Kangle joining the Pan-Asian Fund is to get about 10% of the profits.In the eyes of countless people, the situation of the London International Crude Oil Futures Exchange is simply a gift from God.

Of course, there are also some clients who will ask their traders to chase the ups and downs, follow in the footsteps of Pan Asia Fund, and take small short positions in the market.

However, compared to the risk of doing more.The risk of short-selling has been infinitely magnified in the eyes of people in the financial industry, and Qi Xiao has collected a list of new financial institutions entering the market.There is a long list of long names, but less than one-third of the short list.

Qi Xiao especially reminded: "HSBC, SunTrust, Bank of Ireland, etc. on the right are all investing on behalf of clients, probably at the request of clients. If their self-operated funds are involved, it is most likely to be done on the left in the extra column."

"So, people in the financial world are not very optimistic about shorting." Su Cheng commented while watching.

"Many of the financial institutions that are long now are well-capitalized and have the ability to wait until the delivery of crude oil. We are now at risk of being short-squeezed." Qi Xiao reminded him, thinking to himself: It's not just that he is not optimistic.

Su Cheng just smiled.Said: "At this time, at that time. Now they think that $15 is the reserve price, and $14.88 is cheap. In the morning, they still think that $17.88 is the cheap price. In my opinion, the more people in the financial world, the more confused they are. The reserve price... but these spot traders may hold crude oil until delivery, um. You make a separate list for them."

"Okay." Qi Xiao agreed, and then asked worriedly: "Su Dong, when will the new supply you mentioned appear?"

"Of course it is impossible today, and increasing production is not a matter of a day or two."

"It's not a day or two..." Qi Xiao finally understood why Su Cheng used it as a follow-up method, if there was no current profit.The other six crude oil producers, I am afraid, will not rashly increase crude oil production capacity.

Qi Xiao felt like he was sitting on an accelerating Concorde airliner, his eyes were gray, and he said in a trembling voice: "Su Dong, the current market trading volume has increased several times than usual, and the bad news can last until the market closes." It’s hard to come by. Once the market turns around, releasing bad news won’t have much effect.”

"The market will not be reversed so easily. An increase in the supply of crude oil is an increase. Is it possible for those financial institutions that are long to deliver crude oil? I have the risk of a short squeeze, and they also have the risk of going long. Crude oil is not gold. You can pile them up in your own basement." Su Cheng's tone was calm, not joking.

He is indeed quite sure.

Because what he got was Aqijiu, the world's top five super oil field.

Back then, after bp acquired Aqijiu, just announcing its reserves caused a fluctuating wave in the crude oil market. Fortunately, the British had their own North Sea oil fields, and bp adopted a gradual construction plan, so it did not cause destruction to the crude oil market After all, the Aqijiu oilfield has a peak daily output of 130 million barrels and an annual production capacity of 4 million barrels, which is comparable to the output of the British North Sea oilfield in the later period.

At that time, the North Sea oil field had the reputation of solving the world's oil crisis. In order to save the British economy and the world economy, it took only three years for the British developer to work in the harsh area with a wind speed of 100 knots and a wave height of 36 meters. , Completed the task of doubling and re-doubling the production capacity of the North Sea Oilfield. In contrast, the long and slow development of the Aqijiu Oilfield for more than 10 years can only be said to be caused by the capitalist concept of money.

Dahua Industry has not yet estimated the complete reserves of Aqijiu, and the 30 billion barrels is just the current exploration results. Similarly, compared with its peak production capacity, the current daily production capacity also has great room for expansion.

Unlike the former bp, the current Dahua Industry is sure to expand the production of the Aqijiu Oilfield to 130 million barrels or more within a few years. As a result, it is destined that the oil surplus in the 90s will become more and more obvious.

At that time, even OPEC will have to bear the relatively low crude oil price. According to the rough estimate of the strategy department of Dahua Industrial, the crude oil price will be reduced by 50 cents at least and 1 dollar at most.Because no oil organization can tolerate a long-term reduction in production capacity of 130 million barrels, which is already equivalent to the national production capacity of an ordinary oil-producing country.

In fact, the peak production capacity of the Aqijiu Oilfield itself accounted for more than 30% of Azerbaijan's national production capacity, and Azerbaijan, from the pre-Soviet period to the former Soviet Union period.When it came to the Caspian Sea oil-producing countries, they were all top oil-producing countries in the world.

In the future, Chavez, the old Venezuelan man who is bouncing around, will only rely on the daily output of 400 million barrels per day, and whenever he picks up the "oil weapon", it cannot be said that he will not produce a barrel of oil In general, his weapons are only 50 million barrels.

Something the President of the United States cannot decide.Not necessarily what ExxonMobil can't decide, and what ExxonMobil can't decide.It doesn't mean that Aqijiu Oilfield can't decide.

Barring other production cuts, the oversupply situation has already been achieved for crude oil, an extremely inelastic market.

If it is another ten years later, when China and other emerging market countries begin to show exaggerated appetites, an increase in the Aqijiu Oilfield may be easily digested.But in 94, when the demand for crude oil was sluggish, Aqijiu's production capacity was definitely a stick that broke the camel's back.

If it weren't for the sluggish demand for crude oil, the OPEC ministerial meeting in the past two months would not have discussed the issue of reducing production capacity, and countries such as Iran and Saudi Arabia would not have taken actions to increase production capacity for a long time.

Like a lot of bad news.In the era when crude oil prices were hundreds of dollars, it was easy to make a drop of twenty or thirty dollars, but now, for Sioux City, who has learned about the speculative boom in crude oil futures, a drop of three or four dollars is really nothing.

Qi Xiao's feeling was completely different, and he looked at Su Cheng.He seemed to want to find out the madness in his expression, and said: "Let's hold the heavy warehouse for the night..."

"In the next few days, let the market evolve by itself." Su Cheng interrupted him and gave an order directly.Whether it's him himself or a futures trader like Qi Xiao, he wants to compare his financial methods with guys in the City of London who earn tens of millions of pounds in salary.That's all a typo.The cold reception encountered by Pan Asia Fund when it first arrived is the feedback of reality.

But in the crude oil market, Sioux City has already accumulated solid capital, coupled with his understanding of the future, he is not worried about his position being too heavy.

Qi Xiao returned to the office in dismay, Su Cheng also restrained himself, and went back to continue the conference call.His partners presumably have similar concerns.

The next morning.

Newspapers from all over the world put the volatility of crude oil futures on the front page of the financial news. Compared with the evening news yesterday afternoon, the depth of the newspaper news after a night of brewing has been significantly improved. The leading "Financial Times" even published a special report. Put it on the headlines.

It took Su Cheng a whole breakfast to swallow this report signed by "Di Liya".With his English proficiency, he was able to handle conversations and negotiations, but it was too hard to read professional articles.

Holding the newspaper and walking out of the hotel, he saw a group of reporters staring at him with bright eyes, like a group of gamblers who had stayed up all night.

In a daze, these sharp-moving creatures of the fourth type stuffed the microphone to his mouth.

"Su Dong, may I ask what Pan Asia Fund is going to do next?"

"Su Dong, do you think crude oil futures will open higher today?"

"Chairman Sioux City, please say a few words for the readers of the Daily Telegraph..."

"Su Dong, the price of crude oil in New York has started to rebound, do you regret shorting London crude oil futures..."

Sioux City caught the information amidst a bunch of questions, stopped and asked, "Did the price of crude oil in New York go up?"

During the London break, crude oil futures in New York were still trading, and they clearly had digested the negative impact of OPEC.

The reporter who just mentioned the rebound of crude oil prices in New York squeezed away the people around him with a bright face, held up the microphone and said: "Yes, the current price in New York is 16.22 US dollars, which is more than 1 US dollar higher than the price of crude oil in London. What do you think will happen in the future?" How to develop?"

"Is the price in London still fluctuating around $15?" Sioux City asked without answering.

The reporter looked at the notebook and said: "London North Sea Brent crude oil August contract, the closing price yesterday was 8 US dollars. Now the crude oil prices in New York and London are seriously inverted, what do you think?"

The price of the North Sea Brent crude oil futures contract has always been higher than that of the Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract, but now the latter is $1 higher than the former, which is naturally extremely abnormal.

But compared to the inversion of crude oil futures prices, Sioux City seems to be more abnormal. He showed a strange and uncontrollable smile, and asked, "So the price difference between London and New York has widened to 1 dollar?"

"Yes." The reporter answered strangely, holding up the microphone vigorously, waiting for Su Cheng's response.

Su Cheng closed his eyes and smacked his mouth.

Dahua invested $2 million in contracts for difference between London and New York, when the difference between the two was less than 50 cents.Under the leverage of 300 to 500 times, for every 10 cents in the price difference between the two, Dahua Industrial will make a profit of almost 4.5 million US dollars.

Today, the price difference between London and New York has widened to 1 dollar. For this alone, he can get a net profit of 23 billion US dollars from the contract for difference.

This is the profit from Sioux City's independent investment, and there is no need to share a penny of the profit.

As far as the current situation is concerned, the price difference between London and New York seems to continue to widen.

In 1994, such a large sum of money was more than enough to buy two state-owned enterprises, and it was more than enough to invest in other emerging industries, let alone how much it would cost.

Su Cheng laughed and waved his hands. With the help of the bodyguards, he got rid of the reporters. After getting into the Rolls-Royce, there still seemed to be laughter coming out.

A group of reporters looked around in astonishment, and someone asked softly: "In China, does this expression have any meaning?"

On the contrary, Dilia, who had interviewed Sioux City, felt something and quietly returned to the newspaper office.

...(To be continued. If you like this work, you are welcome to vote for recommendations and monthly tickets. Your support is my biggest motivation..)