Coquettish Rebirth

Even if Jia Hongjian relied on his knowledge before rebirth, many industries would enter a predicament similar to Changhong's after 08.For example, the cpu field!For example, Intel's cpu, I bought a second-generation i5 2500k cpu.The cpu released in 2011 gave Jia Hongjian the opportunity to replace it for 5 years!According to his usage characteristics, at least he personally doesn’t need to change the computer for five years, at most, he just needs to change the graphics card every two or three years according to the requirements of the game!It seemed normal in 2012, but it was definitely not normal in 2001!

You must know that in the late 90s and early 21st century, the development of cpu was at a time when it was fast! In 98, the CPU clock frequency was only 1g!As a result, in 04, the CPU of the Pentium 4 had to reach the clock frequency of 5G!Although Intel's cpu clock frequency has dropped since then, the single-core capability has risen!When it comes to i2500-4k, 4 cores can reach 5g faster. What is this rush?If you calculate carefully, how fast is the development speed of the CPU in these eleven or twelve years?How many times has it been turned over?But from this time on, Jia Hongjian heard that the development of CPUs will become slower and slower, because their performance has completely exceeded the needs of users!An ordinary user buys an i5 cpu, which may be enough to play games for [-] years, why should he spend money to buy a new cpu?

So didn't Intel encounter an environment similar to that of Changhong?It's not that there are no new technological breakthroughs, and the speed of previous breakthroughs has suddenly slowed down.Then the market demand suddenly approached saturation, even the fast-growing Chinese market was slowly approaching saturation!What should we do at this time when there is basically no bigger market on the earth?Can't develop the alien market?And develop the African market?What a joke, a lot of countries in Africa are still around the poverty line!People don't even have food and clothing, so why do they need high-end cpu?Not to mention other things, even if you give it a single-core cpu, African black uncles can use it happily?So what is Intel going to do?

Even with Apple mobile phones, they are the same, and even the entire mobile phone market is similar.Back when there was Jobs, amazing features appeared on Apple phones after a while, but what about 4s?Isn't it just an extra siri?What else?After Jobs died, if Jia Hongjian deduced according to Collins' theory, the person who took over from Apple just wanted to imitate Jobs' thinking.The whole company must have shown that they wanted to pretend that Jobs was still alive.Continue down the path of Jobs.But none of them is Jobs, so after the most capable "Monkey King" is gone, none of those "Zhu Bajie" can become "Monkey King"!

So what next?In the absence of breakthrough new features, the iphone4 swept the global market.Let everyone be familiar with the iphone.When the performance of mobile phones quickly exceeds the needs of ordinary people.It became the time when everyone suddenly discovered that the iphone4 could run the latest software after several years, when everyone realized that there was absolutely no need to follow the latest trends and buy an iPhone every year, when everyone discovered that the iPhone had lost its soul.When there is little change every year, what should I do with this iPhone?

Even the rapid development of the entire mobile phone industry to the point where PCs have stagnated, what should we do?If you look back and find that the cost of 200 yuan can already be made enough for ordinary people to use it, just like when a 2000 yuan mainframe is enough for Jia Hongjian’s parents, who will spend a lot of money? What is the price to buy a mobile phone? In 2000, it cost five, six, seven, or eight thousand to buy a computer, but in 2012, two to three thousand was enough, and five to six thousand was fine. Unless you are deliberately pursuing high-end, ordinary people will never spend five With all the performance of [-] computers, what should manufacturers do at this time?Similarly, when two or three thousand mobile phones can satisfy the majority of ordinary users, and the two or three thousand flagships are just bought by trendy figures, will mobile phone manufacturers also encounter bottlenecks?

When the common people find that the hundreds of new models produced by so many brands are hardly updated every year, and the old mobile phones are enough, and when no new market similar to China has been developed, these mobile phone manufacturers will not actually Facing a dilemma similar to Changhong?So according to this prediction, in fact, in about 15 or 16 years, mobile phones will also enter this predicament?If you think about it that way, it's actually quite scary.Since 08, many industries have gradually fallen into the same scene!It is also encountered that technology cannot be improved rapidly, or the speed of progress exceeds the needs of ordinary consumers, and then the level of consumer shopping is getting lower and slower, and the market reaction is getting colder and colder... Why is there a sudden change? Is this what the industry is all about?

If this is the case, will n multiple industries start to cut expenses together and start paying attention to management?That is what Jia Hongjian said when there is no way to increase revenue and make more money, you can only rely on reducing expenditure.However, after all kinds of throttling and various controls, the most obvious result is that the salary of labor is limited, the increase slows down or even does not rise, and then the number of new jobs decreases. Will it gradually accumulate another one around 2020? A movement similar to Occupy Wall Street?A large number of young people of the new generation can't find a job?Then there is no way but to "rebel"?

This is no exaggeration!You must know that the problem with Spain among the five European pig countries is that young people cannot find jobs!In the early years, the Spanish real estate market was quite prosperous, because Europeans, especially Nordics, liked to come to Spain for seaside vacation in winter.This first ignited the Spanish hotel industry, and after the hotel industry prospered, house prices rose slowly, and rooms became more and more difficult to obtain. Finally, everyone found that it is so troublesome that it is better to spend some money to buy a house in Spain.In the past, I had my own house directly, and I could even rent it out. Isn’t that great?

As a result, a large number of foreigners came to Spain to buy houses, resulting in young people who graduated from high school and did not go to college, but went directly to the construction site to move bricks-don't forget that the wages of brick movers in Europe and America are not lower than that of white-collar workers!Even the migrant workers who work as coolies in China in later generations have lower wages than the white-collar workers who sit in the office?It's easy for people to spend five or six thousand a month!And what about the little white-collar workers?There are two or three thousand!So in the eyes of many young Spanish men, going to university is of no use?As a result, who knows that after a few years of moving bricks, the supply exceeds demand.Spain has built too many houses. Once the economic situation changes, foreigners will not come to buy them, and domestic people will have houses. This will cause real estate companies to close down one after another, and then a large number of young people will lose their jobs!Even at one time, the unemployment rate of young people under the age of 30 in Spain was as high as 50%!Is this going to happen?

Then countries such as France are also discussing to postpone retirement, which has caused riots among young people, because young people still feel that it will be more difficult for them to have a job if the old men do not retire!This kind of thing makes the whole world not peaceful!Then around 2020, according to Jia Hongjian's thinking, if many industries are slowly tightening and are no longer so popular, what should we do?Of course, this is when there is no major technological breakthrough.In case there is a technological breakthrough, nothing will happen, but isn't he just idle and boring?So think about the worst case scenario.That's just in case.Is that going to cause a worldwide economic depression?

这赶脚就是继08年之后，又来了一次十年一度的经济萧条了有木有？80年代末90年代初开始，美国是靠着赶上了苏联崩溃的红利和it的狂潮，一下子爽了起来。2000年之后是美国靠着次贷爽了几年。中国是靠着成为世界工厂开始爽了。可是到了2010年左右中国产品已经打入了大多数国家了？再到2020年左右。中国怎么找到新的“市场”？

So if you think about it this way, Jia Hongjian suddenly realizes that the period from the 90s to 2008 seems to be a relatively rare era of rapid development in the modern history of mankind!This kind of discovery really made Jia Hongjian feel quite amazing!Because he was used to the era of rapid development in the world from the 90s to 2008, so he thought that this kind of rapid development should be the norm!In fact, this kind of rapid growth is not the norm!It's like China's rapid growth of 30% or even more than 8% per year for 10 consecutive years.Many people feel that they have become accustomed to it, and even feel that this thing is too fake. Is it just a number?But if after 2012, we get used to only 7% annual growth, we will find that the original 7% annual growth is no longer easy to do business, not as easy as 10% annual growth!So when it grows by 1% every year, is it more difficult to do business?If there is a 1% annual growth rate for 20 years or even longer, will we think that the previous 10% annual growth rate is a miracle and a rare period?

This feeling is very strange. Of course, Jia Hongjian himself didn't take it seriously.Didn't he just think about it when he was shopping with his sister?What kind of technology can't be broken through, but fortunately, several industries can't break through the technology, this condition is too harsh!What if there is a technological breakthrough in two or three years?One can't break through, and there are ten out of ten who can't break through?Yes or no?So Jia Hongjian was just thinking about having fun, but thinking about how to play, he nodded at the clothes the girl was trying on to show they looked good, and at the same time thought the idea was very interesting, and he wanted to hear what others thought of him. What do you think of this "slightly bigger brain hole" idea?But after thinking about it, he didn't seem to have any friends in economics.So in the end, I just used my mobile phone to make an international long-distance call and went back to China to chat with He Xin!

This He Xin used to be one of the country's think tanks!Gradually fewer came out over the years, and he seems to have retreated to study things.But the so-called retreat is just that I seldom come out to do things, and I still keep in touch with old friends like Jia Hongjian. "Hello, He Xin? Are you free? Let's chat with you!" Jia Hongjian asked first after getting through the phone, lest others run out of time. "Ah? It's time... a bit, what's the matter?" He Xin said after hesitating for a while.Since the other party had time, Jia Hongjian would not be polite, so he told He Xin about his outrageous ideas.In the end, who knows that this is the end of the talk, and he hasn't asked He Xin what he thinks of this kind of brain-opening idea, but he listened to He Xin quite appreciatively, "That's right, this is Kondra Tiev’s long-wave theory! The world economy has a cycle of about 50 years. The first 20 years are rising and the next 20 years are falling. This time we are almost in a rising period from 1990 to 2010 or 20. Then there will be a decline period of more than [-] years, and everyone will have a hard time by then..."

ha?What?Does Jia Hongjian's crazy thinking conform to the law?real or fake?What is this Yev long wave really has this kind of theory?Isn't this He Xin's joke to tease him?What kind of economic principle does Jia Hongjian think about casually when he is shopping with his sister... Does it conform to any economic principle?Really or not, brother? (To be continued..)