Coquettish Rebirth

"Of course it is true. The Kondratiev long-wave theory itself is an investigation of the laws of the capitalist market economy by people in the Soviet Union at that time. However, Kondratiev himself died earlier in the late 30s. Yes, so I didn’t study it later. After being inspired by many economists in other countries, they added various other long-wave theories of technology and product development cycles, resulting in more and more comprehensive capabilities. Describe a state of the market economy. In short, since the end of the 80s, IT technology began to exert its power slowly, forming a new round of technology with information and technology as the core and a climax of social growth.

This round of ** developed to around 2010. Although it has greatly promoted the development of the Internet, according to the law, by then, the technology investment of various companies in various countries over the years will gradually become insufficient, and they have entered a similar business model. There is no new breakthrough technology, and the market is basically saturated at the same time, which makes the profits of merchants drop sharply, so merchants have begun to reduce investment.After the overall reduction of investment, social jobs have been reduced, which has further brought about a depression period.And after the depression period for more than [-] years, basic research has finally made a breakthrough, the market prospect is promising, various companies have begun to invest heavily in research and production, jobs have increased, and society has slowly begun to prosper..."

Hearing He Xin's words, Jia Hongjian was really shocked!Fuck, didn't you say that economics is more of an art than a science?How can economists predict so accurately now? "Brother, is this prediction generally accurate?" He asked. "Basically, it is probably accurate. But it is impossible to accurately predict the year. It is like God looks at human beings and knows that a person will definitely die, but he does not necessarily know the exact year. And the cycle itself is also unpredictable. It is not completely fixed. Most of the time, the boom period is more than 30 years to 40 years, and even the low tide period may last for more than 40 years, and the short period of 20 years is enough. Therefore, the academic circle only knows such a theory, and it can roughly infer the entire economy. However, it is not certain to say that 2010 will definitely go down, maybe this band can continue until 2020?"

oh!Emotion is like predicting a girl's menstrual period?Probably know the next week or so.But I don't know if it will come on Monday or Wednesday or even Friday.yes?Just when Jia Hongjian was feeling emotional, He Xin continued to introduce: "Such a theory is basically in line with the actual situation of social development, especially in Europe and the United States. For example, there are records in the last long-wave recession in Europe and the United States. The fourth recession period since 66 began. It caused the first oil crisis. Then the Bretton Woods system linked to the US dollar and gold disintegrated. The US economy was in turmoil, so the common people in the United States then shouted To withdraw troops from Vietnam. At that time, due to the rise in oil prices in the United States, the prices of various commodities rose. Even the price of food rose a lot, which brought a great impact on the lives of ordinary people. What drove people away was that their salaries did not increase. Prices are going up..."

I fuck?Isn't this what will happen in the next few years?Back in 08, historically, it seemed that since 06 and 07, the price of oil has been soaring all the way. As a result, let alone the price of food, the price of domestic pork has been soaring, and then everything else has been soaring. price!For example, buns have risen from 2012 cents to 12 cents, then 7 cents, and then 08 piece. In Shanghai in [-], there were [-] piece, [-] pieces, [-] piece, [-] meat buns!The price of a large bowl of ramen in ramen shops has also skyrocketed. In this year, a large bowl of ramen on the street should cost [-] yuan a bowl, but in [-] it was directly [-] yuan a bowl!And there is less meat!In this way, after [-], the world economy really started to go downhill?

"The downtrend before the 60s was around 29 years, which resulted in the Great Depression, and then a world war. Everyone exported wars to each other. After 45 years, everyone was exhausted, and then began a period of 20 years. Years of growth. The downward period that started in 66 ended in the mid-to-late 80s, almost 20 years later, when Bush Sr. stepped down, and when Clinton came to power, he chanted the slogan of revitalizing the economy. To be honest, I think Clinton is too slippery , it is estimated that he has already figured out that he should have already reached the upward range, but the common people did not find out, so he called the economy. At that time, he did not need to do anything, and the economy can develop well, but it seems to be his credit. But no matter what , There are still about ten years left in the uptrend this time. It depends on whether there are any Serb youths who came out to assassinate Archduke Ferdinand. No one knows whether this depression will lead to a new round of world war. I don't know..." He Xin said.

Upon hearing this, Jia Hongjian thought it was amazing!Your sister basically predicted the subprime mortgage crisis in 08 and the debt crisis in Europe!From the perspective of "contemporary people" like Jia Hongjian, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the debt crisis in Europe have underlying causes, but they all seem to have been put together accidentally. An isolated incident, but who knows that in the eyes of these economists, it is actually a predetermined thing!Just like before World War I, the entire Balkan region has become a huge powder keg. Maybe experts can't be sure when the fight will start, but it is almost certain that the fight will start!At most, a Serb youth suddenly appeared and shot and killed Archduke Ferdinand, which suddenly led to the outbreak of World War I!Perhaps in the eyes of economists, such things as the subprime mortgage crisis and the debt crisis may not necessarily appear in 08, but they know that something will happen around 10 years ago and cause the world economy to go down!This kind of rushing is amazing!Economics is so awesome?How did the experts discover this pattern?

"How is this thing determined? What are the specific rules?" He couldn't help asking.Then I heard He Xin’s introduction, “This is mainly the conclusion drawn by Kondratiev, a statistician, based on the economic data of major developed countries in the world such as Britain, the United States, France and Germany. He may not understand why this is so. However, by comparing a large amount of economic data, especially the economic data of the commodity economy, including commodity prices, interest rates, imports, exports, coal and pig iron production, etc., he did conclude such a rule of about 50 years. After he discovered this law, later generations mainly filled in the internal logic of such a law. There were Schumpeter’s innovation cycle theory, Duin’s long-wave theory, etc. Simply put, it’s like a mobile phone. At the beginning of the 70s, it was a military communicator made by Motorola, and then it was gradually miniaturized, and finally turned to civilian use. After it became civilian, it became a new technology and a new market, which suddenly created a huge market in the world, and then Manufacturers are investing and producing one after another, but in the absence of absolute technological breakthroughs in mobile phones, sooner or later they will occupy the market. Then what should we do?"

Hearing this, Jia Hongjian understood a little bit, and he interjected, "Then we will see if there is a new technological breakthrough. If there is, then it will be a new round of growth. If not, it will fall into stagflation..." When he said , Jia Hongjian thought of the development of the entire mobile phone industry.At the very beginning, mobile phones were all kinds of feature phones to expand the market. In the early 90s, not to mention mainland China, even foreign countries did not popularize mobile phones. The entire 90s can be said to be a process of popularization of feature phones!Then in the first few years of the 21st century, although the market is still expanding, it has generally come to an end. At this time, various technologies are mature and messy, so there are Chinese copycat phones and domestic machine dynasties!Because at this time, it has reached the point where even the cottage workshops can make mobile phones!In other words, is this a bit like the time when the aunts who buy vegetables on the street are discussing stocks?Generally speaking, when the stock market is so good that the aunts on the street start to discuss stocks, we are almost about to get out of the way?Because even the aunts on the street have started to enter the market, and no one will take over after that!Sometimes the stock market is like passing a flower by beating drums, and see who will pick it up last!

Similarly, if even small workshops can start making functional phones, does this prove that the technology of functional phones has spread in a mess, indicating that the market has almost passed the development stage, and it is time for various companies to start fighting for prices?If a smart phone like the iphone suddenly appeared at this time, it would be great. Shuffle the cards all of a sudden, create a market for smart phones out of thin air, and it will last for a few more years.But the trend of smart phones has gradually spread to the time when street workshops can produce them?When smart phones are at the end of the period, if there is no new round of technological breakthroughs and no new markets, then it will obviously shrink slowly, just like the Changhong in history!

"That's right. To put it bluntly, this thing is accumulation. The accumulation of the past 20 years has caused the next outbreak in the next 20 years. During the 20 years of the outbreak, it is basically impossible to accumulate new technologies while developing, because if new technologies are so easy to accumulate There will be no such long-wave cycle. Therefore, it can basically be considered that although during the 20 years of the outbreak, countries and industries have been desperately researching and developing, even if there is a new technology, it may not be suitable for the market, and then after 20 years of accumulation , there may be a new potential market, and then the merchants will turn the various combinations of technologies accumulated in the past 40 years into a new product that adapts to the market, and this will suddenly explode..."He Xin point He nodded and said.

Damn... If you listen to it like this, the future relationship is really in a downward range!It seems that in the next few years, Jia Hongjian really has to slowly let the entire Huaxia Hi-Tech system learn how to control costs. How can it be the same as wow haha? With deep internal skills, he can quickly convert all the profits of a product and an industry They were all dug out.To the point where people have their own skills, to the point where everyone makes a product, and others can't make money, but we can make money!By reducing costs through overall management and paying attention to every small profit at the same time, you can live longer than others and adapt to the economic downturn better than others! (To be continued..)