Coquettish Rebirth

"Then when the economy starts to go down, what will be the specific performance? Is it stagflation? The common people feel that the price of things has been rising, and then wages are not rising? It is becoming more and more difficult for young graduates to find jobs? Business is not good. Do?" Jia Hongjian couldn't help asking.

"If the inflection point was reached in 2010, then problems began to appear slowly in 08 and 09, and then we will see what kind of fuse will be detonated, and there may be high inflation in a short period of time. In order to avoid its own crisis, the United States will They will start to print money, so that the price of oil will skyrocket, exploit the whole world in this way, export the crisis, and then pay for the United States. So in a short period of time, maybe within two or three years, the whole world will suddenly start to inflate, Because of the soaring price of oil, all kinds of prices soared. Then after two or three years, through the exploitation of the whole world, the investment in the world dropped sharply, and the funds returned to the United States to save the market. After the end, the United States began to stabilize, and then the funds in the United States Start to flow out and go to other countries to buy bottoms. In this way, there will still be inflation, but it will be much milder. Relatively speaking, the world economy will enter a stable period, and everyone’s economy will not fall much, but it will gradually become stagflation. Slight inflation and slow economic development. Generally speaking, it is not as bad as when the crisis broke out in the previous two years, but the overall situation is not good. It just survived, and there were small problems everywhere, and then this state lasted for more than ten years. But through In the past ten years of stagflation, the prices of commodities such as oil will gradually fall..."

Having said this, He Xin paused, "Although many people know about these things, few people have studied them before. For example, after the recession in the United States in the 60s, no one has studied the long-wave theory. Later in the 80s Well, someone finally realized that something was wrong, and wondered why it had been stagflation for so long. In the mid-to-early 80s in the United States, there were no big investment opportunities in the country. It seemed that all industries were not worth investing in. Later, Duin Taking out and analyzing the long-wave theory previously studied by the Soviet Union, the results have had some influence in Europe and the United States. Compared with us, there are few people in China who study these things. You may think that the Soviet theory has long been outdated... That's right. Don't be too obsessed by then. Focus on investing in bulk items. Don’t keep thinking about investing in oil, gold and coal. Those things will be very hot in the first few years, but they will gradually cool down. If you invest, you will be cheated when you are about to produce It's..."

Scrap!Jia Hongjian was really shocked when he heard this! After 08, he knew that the price of gold had risen for a while.He also knows that oil is rising.Then coal prices began to fall around 12 years.Many coal mines are not profitable, and foreign coal mines have begun to export to China, and the price is cheaper than domestic coal.It made many coal bosses very uncomfortable!From this point of view, maybe after 2012, the prices of oil, gold, etc. will gradually drop?Then after the coal market has been booming for 10 years, is it going to usher in a downturn?Unexpectedly, these ordinary people think that there is no way to predict the future. In fact, in the eyes of economists, the track has already been laid!

"Then what will Huaxia Hi-Tech do then?" Jia Hongjian asked hastily. "You Huaxia Hi-Tech? At the beginning, shrink it first. According to the situation in Japan in the 70s I have studied, the price of bulky items rose at the beginning, which led to a decline in the profits of the machinery manufacturing industry, the steel industry, and other industrial levels. Some small companies Small factories began to close down. After all, the price of raw materials has risen so much that no one can bear it, and things cannot be sold. It depends on who can bear it. After that, the coal industry and the chemical industry began to be misfortune. Because After the iron and steel factories and machinery factories reduce their investment, the energy demand will also decrease, so the coal and chemical industries will definitely drop, and then the oil price may also drop slightly, and then the inflation rate will drop. At this time, the government will almost release a series of Stimulus policies to maintain growth. At that time, the iron and steel and machinery manufacturing industries will gradually feel like spring, and the gross profit margin will gradually increase a little bit. It seems that at least it can barely operate. In the general environment, because The employment situation has not improved, the market has become colder, and consumers have relatively less money in their pockets, so high-level consumption will decrease, and the low-level consumer market will start to flourish.

Or the passenger flow of big restaurants decreases, and then the passenger flow of small restaurants on the street increases.Because consumers are afraid to spend a lot of money, they can only choose lower-level consumption, so low-level consumption will be somewhat rejuvenated.Finally, the necessities of life and daily consumer goods will pick up. After all, the basic survival needs of human beings are still needed. Shampoo and facial cleanser are still needed, but it may be that the long-term will be more inclined to cheap products. At that time, you will sell them abroad. Things may do well... In addition, because your online marketing has reduced links and the price is relatively low, it may be that in the recession era, your online sales will be good, but the real economy may be hit, because people open stores to sell clothes You can't make any money..."

Fuck!It turned out to be this principle!When Jia Hongjian heard this, he was suddenly enlightened!He had a friend who opened various small street shops, but in the second half of 2012, that friend complained to Jia Hongjian, feeling that business was doing well in 08, but why did business suddenly fail in the second half of 12? Good job!The previous daily turnover of 3000 yuan may suddenly be more than 1000 yuan!That's just enough to pay the rent!He even thought about not going to the previous wholesaler to wholesale clothes, and simply looking for a pattern or something to go to a garment factory in eastern Zhejiang or even Lingnan to place an order directly, and then earn excess profits by bypassing the middleman.Even this friend is thinking about opening an online store to sell clothes, and if he can sell one piece, it's a piece of cake!On the other hand, in Jia Hongjian's memory, online shopping such as x treasures has been booming all the way, as if they were not affected by the general environment at all!

Even thinking about the situation of the street stores near Jia Hongjian’s community, it is true that many new stores transferred from 2012 could not be opened, and they closed after two or three months, and then opened another one.As a result, I couldn't sustain it after driving for a few months, so I replaced it.In the end, even some newly-opened restaurants could not continue to open, and the whole street became more and more "oil pressure massage"!So from this perspective, He Xin's theory can really be verified!This proves that it has indeed entered the Great Depression period. Although the economy may recover a bit, it will not return to the era of rapid development, and even the world's markets have begun to enter an era of slow shrinkage and depression.Everyone didn't know that the situation was bad, so they all started to control their spending, and then more basic consumption became more popular!On the contrary, it is more and more difficult to do high-end consumption!

And if you look at this point in the field of mobile phones and computers, it seems to be in line with such a general trend-because people are less and less afraid to spend money.So mobile phones and computers may become cheaper and cheaper to buy.Anyway, it happens that there is a surplus of technology, and consumers rationally feel that they don't need such awesome performance.Therefore, low-end products are becoming more and more popular, and the prices of mobile phones and the like may be getting lower and lower, and finally become the point where there is basically no profit to sell... Manufacturers such as sentimental Xiaomi who have lowered the price may just catch up Is it such a trend?But catching up with the trend is not necessarily a good thing.Because at that time, it will be the price competition of Chiguoguo.Everyone is driving down product prices.As a result, everyone's profits are low, and in the end it is to slowly shuffle the cards to see who can live longer!

At this time.It can be said that Jia Hongjian basically has an idea of ​​the direction of future investment!That is to make network sales bigger and stronger!With online sales, even through the current joint venture with Shuchuan, more vertically integrated production lines, you can generate more profits than others in price competition, and live longer!At the same time, because consumers are more and more concerned about the price factor, online sales will definitely go one step further!At the same time, because jobs may become increasingly difficult to find, and the boom in online sales will demand jobs in labor-intensive industries such as the express delivery industry.Although it may be really tiring and hard work in the express delivery industry, let alone make a lot of money, it is still a job after all, and it can still make money.Therefore, there may not be a large number of people doing express delivery in China, but what about in the United States?What about in Europe?

Those in the United States and Europe shouting 99% to occupy Wall Street, didn’t they say that they were so overwhelmed by loans that they couldn’t support themselves by working part-time?Isn't the unemployment rate high in the United States?Then let's go to the United States to build a courier company...can it attract a lot of manpower?Can it make money?Indeed, there are various traditional big-name express delivery manufacturers in the United States.But can we predict the future downward trend in advance, and how can we slowly invade the express delivery market in the United States through a design?At that time, it may be to find a way to reduce the cost, such as building more outlets, and then let the courier go out to deliver the goods by bicycle, or... simply use the unmanned helicopter made by 602 to deliver the goods?That's right!What is expensive in the United States is labor costs!So from a certain point of view, as long as there is no need for American delivery, the cost will actually be much lower, right?At that time, Sherlock Holmes can use drones to deliver goods... This is very sci-fi!

"Who are you calling? Tired of waiting?" Ye Jing came out of the fitting room and asked the clerk to wrap the clothes. While giving the clerk the credit card to swipe, she turned her head and asked Jia Hongjian concerned. "Ah? I'm on the phone with He Xin." Jia Hongjian turned his head and smiled, and then said to He Xin on the phone, "Okay, brother, I have something to do, so hang up first, thank you for following along I've said so much, let's talk later when I have time!"

"Hurry up and hang up the phone as soon as you see me asking?" Who knew that Ye Jing raised her eyebrows and looked at Jia Hongjian at this time, as if she was a bit "catch rape", "Actually, what kind of vixen did you call just now? Talking sweetly to the vixen, as soon as I came out, he immediately pretended to be calling He Xin, right?" "Yo, you already know this? I still have a vixen, I like it, what's wrong?" Jia Hong Gradually he knew that Ye Jing was joking, so he probably said the opposite. "Hmph, Xiao Mian, let's see how I clean you up when I get home, and I'll make you kneel on the washboard!" Ye Jing said deliberately pretending to be a queen.

"It's a good idea, we don't have a washboard in our house. It's hard to buy a washboard if you want to in America!" Jia Hongjian laughed loudly. (to be continued..)