Coquettish Rebirth

"In 2003, I noticed that some scholars and experts in the market had begun to remind the public and investors sporadically that the real estate market had begun to have bubbles. Many people did not agree with this, even after a long time, Many people still think that this is simply unfounded worrying nonsense. And this insight into the real estate industry bubble has been fully confirmed today. I have studied the whole story of such a subprime mortgage crisis and its root causes, and found that this is An unavoidable real estate bubble collapse after the IT bubble collapse in 2001. Why is it unavoidable? Because after the IT bubble collapse and the world's telecommunications industry downturn, the United States as a whole has not been affected much, and the United States as a whole is still the world The most excellent investment environment that exists.

But at that time, the US stock market was no longer suitable for investment, at least not for a short period of time.At this time, funds will definitely find other areas to invest in. At this time, in order to prevent the sharp drop in the stock market from affecting the real economy, the Federal Reserve adopted a very expansionary monetary policy in order to stimulate the economy.They first announced that they would cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points, and the interest rate would drop from 6.5% to 6%, which opened the prelude to the US interest rate cut.Since then, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates 13 times in a row, finally reducing the federal funds rate to a low of 2003% in June 6, and maintaining it for more than a year.Under the guidance of the Federal Reserve, the US financial system is in a very relaxed environment, various interest rates have fallen, and high-risk financial instruments have also begun to be widely used.

Let this 1% federal funds rate hit the lowest level in 45 years!Many friends in front of the TV may not understand what the federal funds rate means, so let me explain.The federal funds rate in the United States is actually the interest rate in the interbank lending market, the most important of which is the overnight lending rate.That is to say, the interest rate at which commercial banks borrow some funds from peers, that is, lending money between banks.It's like we have no cash in our pockets and borrow some from our neighbors or colleagues.Changes in this interest rate can sensitively reflect the surplus or shortage of funds among banks. The Fed’s targeting and adjustment of the interbank lending rate can directly affect the cost of funds of commercial banks, and pass on the surplus or shortage of funds in the interbank lending market to industrial and commercial enterprises, thereby affecting consumption, Investment and the national economy. "

"Specifically, how did the federal funds rate stimulate the rise in housing prices? I won't talk about the complicated process in the middle. What I can tell you here is that the decline in interest rates has led to a decline in housing loan interest rates. In housing loans In the market, loose monetary conditions led to a continuous decline in mortgage interest rates. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell from 2000% at the end of 8.1 to 2003% in 5.8. The 1-year adjustable rate mortgage rate also fell from 2001% at the end of 7.0 to 2003% in 3.8. It is worth noting that in June 2004, the Federal Reserve adjusted its macro-control direction again, and raised interest rates 6 times in a row until August 2005, pulling the federal funds rate from 8% to 14%. Mortgage interest rates have risen, but they are still relatively low. From this point of view, we can also see that in 13. The Federal Reserve also realized that there may be a bubble behind the real estate risk, but they estimate that the risk is not great..."

Having said that, Jia Hongjian's posture, momentum, and attitude are not at all like a guest who came to be interviewed, but like an expert who has been invited to talk about the subprime mortgage crisis and deeply analyze the internal reasons. It was as if this talk show suddenly became his one-man show!This point is actually caused by the host and the others temporarily encountering an unexpected situation and suddenly not knowing how to answer the conversation.Such a program was originally a recorded program, that is to say, it was not broadcast live.Logically speaking.In fact, at such a time, the host can ask the director to call the card.Then they stopped to discuss something.But such a thing is not necessary, and the director did not call the card.At the same time, such a recording and broadcasting program does not mean that after three hours of filming, the complete content of three hours must be broadcast at the end, and various editing can be performed in the middle.So the hosts who knew that editing was possible were not in a hurry, but let Jia Hongjian speak for himself, while they were actively considering how to arrange the following interview questions and content.It's just that they don't know it.The relationship between Jia Hongjian and their company will not allow long sections of his speech to be edited out!He, Jia Hongjian, is here this time to be an expert!

Didn't Jia Hongjian come here to pretend?Wouldn't it be better to stimulate his movie box office by pretending to be aggressive?So why start pretending to be an expert now?What does this have to do with box office?Don't worry, just keep reading and you will find out!At that time, Jia Hongjian began to analyze little by little that funds flowed into the US housing market after the global funds flowed out of the stock market.And then because of low interest rates.This leads to an increase in the number of people who buy a house, and the increase in the number of people who buy a house leads to an increase in housing prices.The existence of low interest rates has led to the fact that the rise in housing prices does not actually increase the interest rate much, so it has little impact on the willingness to buy. "According to statistics, from 2000 to 2004, the median house price in the U.S. housing market has increased by 33%! A full one-third increase! However, if a home buyer mortgages a house with a median price for a 30-year loan, the monthly payment required The loan amount only increased from US$846 to US$876, an increase of only US$30! It can be said that low interest rates have become the main factor supporting high housing prices and high sales volume. Under such a situation, the current rise in interest rates and decline in housing prices will It is not impossible that the wealth of a large number of families who bought houses after 2000 will shrink or even be cut in half! This will further encroach on the wealth that families could have used for consumption, and thus affect the real economy even more!"

Having said this, Jia Hongjian paused, and said his final conclusion, "So after my research and judgment, such a subprime mortgage crisis is actually not just a one-year, two-three-year period like the collapse of the IT bubble. In the past, it was far from impossible. It is estimated that by 2012 or even 2014, such a crisis may not be able to survive, and the entire world economy may even enter a trough of slow depression! I like the United States very much, I I think the people here are very cute, so I personally suggest. People in the United States, you may have to be a little more careful when spending money from today. The future may not be so easy..." After saying this, Jia Hong Gradually, he shut his mouth, as if he had finished his long speech before.

For such an expert-like speech, Jia Hongjian felt very satisfied.anyway.Didn't he want to play tricks before?Don't you want to stimulate your movie box office growth?How come it has become such an expert-like speech now?Because this in itself is a pre-measure and method to stimulate the box office!What do you say about this?Because in fact, Jia Hongjian discovered through research that the worse the economic situation in this world is, the more popular entertainment methods such as movies are relatively cheap!why?Because ordinary people dare not spend a lot of money because of the bad economic situation, they can only spend this kind of small money for entertainment. They always want entertainment!When the economic situation is good, maybe they just watch the movies they like to watch, and at other times they party, date and drink all kinds of wine, all of which cost money.And it's not cheap!But because the economic situation is not so good, everyone is afraid that if they have money to spend today, they will not have money to spend tomorrow, so this large amount of entertainment expenses will be reduced as much as possible, so maybe going to a party or dating will become two people going to the movies up!

Such a rule is really not the result of Jia Hongjian's random brain research, but absolutely has a theoretical basis. For example, the current strength of Hollywood and American movies is the result of the Great Depression in the United States!That's right.During the Great Depression in the United States in the 30s, all kinds of poor people had no entertainment.They could only choose movies, a method that was not very popular at the time, for entertainment, and this led to the rise of the American film industry!Similarly, such a theory may have examples in all walks of life. For example, in the tourism industry, when the economic situation is good, foreign travel is booming.But when the economic situation is not so good, it may take a step back and become all kinds of hot domestic travel, why?

Is it because the common people feel that the economic situation is not good, so if you spend less money, it is better to spend too much money abroad than to have fun at home!And if the economic situation continues to deteriorate.This domestic travel will soon cool down, and then other cheaper entertainment methods will become popular!This is a chain of decline!As a higher species, human beings have developed to this day. They not only need food, clothing, housing and transportation, but also need social interaction, entertainment and relaxation.When they feel that high-end entertainment is too expensive, they will gradually shift to cheaper ones!Back then, Hollywood movies became popular during the Great Depression, but now such a subprime mortgage crisis will make the U.S. economy stagnant and weak, which will definitely stimulate a new round of soaring box office in North America!To be honest, the North American box office of a film like "Avatar" may be partly due to the economic situation. After mixing with various gimmicks, it leads to the scary high box office!

According to the historical development, the economic situation in the United States is estimated to be in the second half of the year or even in 08 before the common people realize that it is a bit sluggish, and then the box office of movies may slowly rise.But at that time, Jia Hongjian and his third Batman part might all be offline!Now that we know such a rule, how can we give such an opportunity to make money while lying down to later generations?Whoever copied it at such a great opportunity counts as it!So now, he, Jia Hongjian, is going to release his pessimism about the future on a large scale first, in order to stimulate the American people's sense of crisis!At such a time, the movie released at the same time is their third Batman movie, which is the most competitive. In such a situation, we scare one out of ten people, and let one out of ten people be scared. If people can go to the cinema to watch our movies, the box office will also increase a lot, right?In the end, even if it only increased the box office by tens of millions of dollars, then we didn't pay any cost!We just came to the TV station and said a few words casually. How could Jia Hongjian not want to do it for tens of millions of box office at zero cost?

Even if this thing doesn't fool people into watching the movie, then we don't lose anything, at most we lose a little saliva.But if it succeeds, it will be a lot of money!How could it be possible that Jia Hongjian would not do this kind of thing that is sure to make money without losing it?And this is just the first step!Next, he still has a series of tricks to try his best to attract consumers to watch his movies in the cinema! (To be continued..)