Coquettish Rebirth

What did Jia Hongjian answer?His answer was definitely a professional and in-depth answer that the hosts never dreamed of!Just listen to what Jia Hongjian said: "I have researched it for about 20 days, and the result of the research is that anyone in the market who says that the subprime crisis is not a big problem is tantamount to putting... Angry, I’m sorry, this word may offend the audience a little bit, please forgive me., why did I say that? Because after my analysis, I found that maybe at such a time next year, the top five investment banks...or according to the current number The four major investment banks may not exist anymore. Lehman Brothers also has a big problem, and it is likely that it will not be able to survive within a year. Changes will be known. On the other hand, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, I think they can survive, but they will be seriously injured. According to the results of my deduction, these two investment banks may eventually apply to the Federal Reserve Transformed into a commercial bank..."

When Jia Hongjian said such words, the host, who was looking at Jia Hongjian with smiles on his face, but was actually thinking about how to ask questions in his mind, was stunned. !They originally wanted Jia Hongjian to say something casually and buy them some time to think, but who would have thought that Jia Hongjian would really say such a shocking thing?The disappearance of the five major investment banks?At this time, it sounds simply sensational!So at that time, the male host couldn't help but asked Jia Hongjian, "Hungjian, you just said...the five major investment banks will disappear? Even Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley will be transformed into commercial banks? Is there any basis for your analysis? I am not I'm judging whether your analysis is correct, just because such a result is so shocking, I really can't believe it!"

At this time, Jia Hongjian smiled and explained, "The result of my research. If it is to be discussed in detail, it will be a long chapter. It is no exaggeration to say that basically if it is written as a thesis, it can be used as a Harvard University’s undergraduate or master’s thesis this year is used, and it is estimated that it can be passed. The explanation here is stinky, long and full of academic things. It’s too boring to say, so I’m just simple here Describe the general reason - going back to the root cause, it should be the rapid development of financial derivatives. This has a lot to do with Greenspan. Due to his authority, he also strongly supported the development of financial derivatives, which led to the rapid development of financial derivatives in the past 20 years. The global market value of financial derivatives has reached 153 trillion US dollars, but financial derivatives are very complex and difficult to understand and can be magnified by 1:10, so the risk is greater than that of stocks.

And it is its stalk effect.When the market was good, the profits were huge, causing Wall Street financiers to invest desperately. As a result, the subprime mortgage crisis became a fuse, causing the financial derivatives market invested by investment banks such as Goldman Sachs to plummet.So don't think that only the last investment bank is losing money, Goldman Sachs is also losing money!In the end, although Goldman Sachs will not go bankrupt, they will still want to work part-time in some businesses that they didn't like before to seek stability... That is to say, according to my estimation.In the end, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley will definitely seek help from the U.S. government, hoping that the U.S. government can acquire some of their non-voting shares..."

When Jia Hongjian just said this.The hostess interrupted him suddenly, "Hung-chien, I'm sorry to interrupt, but we, the United States, are not your China, we are capitalism that emphasizes liberalism, and our government won't take care of them..." The hostess also had a sense of pride as she spoke.I really don't know where this pride comes from!At this time, Jia Hongjian didn't slap him in the face.He just smiled and said: "Thank you for reminding, but what I heard from the President of the United States and various executives, they never said that the American economic system is pure free capitalism, according to their description, they have always said that The American economic system is a mixed economy!"

Having said this, Jia Hongjian paused.Without giving the hostess a chance to interrupt him, he continued: "The economic system of the United States is a mixed economy. The main component of such a mixed economy is the private ownership economy, which is often called the free enterprise system. In contrast to the socialist economy. The socialist economy relies heavily on government planning and common ownership of the means of production. It should be noted that although the United States implements a private enterprise system, the government has always participated in regulation and guidance to some extent The economy of the United States. The simplest example, after the Great Depression in 1929, how did President Hoover, who did nothing but wait for the social economy to recover by itself, stepped down? What did Roosevelt do when he came to power next? Roosevelt introduced a series of measures, including currency devaluation, crop control, employment stimulus, federal relief, Tennessee Valley experiment, debt relief, financial reform, etc. Behind these initiatives emerged a tendency that the government was happy to expand its role This is actually the so-called Keynesian economics later on. These things are clearly written in our Chinese middle school history textbooks, and I think you Americans should know better than me.”

At this time, Jia Hongjian paused, seeing that the hostess was completely dumbfounded and didn't know what to say, he smiled and continued with grace: "Looking at the history of business since Roosevelt, American politics Economists constantly shifted the means of macroeconomic regulation. Roosevelt tried to find a middle way between the free enterprise system and the government-led economy, so as to manage capitalism, so as to create what came to be called active government, interventionist government After 1941, the United States quickly formed a so-called mixed economy. World War II provided an opportunity for the modern government to intervene in economic affairs, and it seemed to affirm the correctness of Keynes' theory of deficit expenditure. The Cold War after World War II greatly strengthened the power of the federal government. Expansion. The "Employment Act" promulgated in 1946 made full employment the responsibility of the government, and the government must actively intervene to achieve full employment, full production, and full consumption. This seems to have opened the precedent for macroeconomic regulation in the United States...

Truman, Eisenhower, etc. have attracted countless large companies to participate by virtue of the establishment of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the Korean War. The dominant position of the government is evident.In order to recover from the economic slowdown of the post-Eisenhower period, Kennedy advocated a large reduction in personal income and corporate taxes.After JFK was assassinated, Lyndon Johnson left behind the mark of a great reformer with a great society—low inflation combined with high employment made the 20s the most prosperous period in American history.In the past 60 years, the average annual economic growth rate has reached 10%, and macroeconomic regulation has also gained credibility.Nixon's real interest was in foreign affairs, but he had to take steps such as freezing wages and prices, ending the dollar's convertibility guarantee for gold, unilaterally ending the Bretton Woods agreement, imposing a 4.7% surcharge on imported goods, etc. To deal with recession and inflation...

In the 20s, there was an economic "Waterloo" in the United States. People seemed to feel that Keynesianism had lost its effect. There were calls for privatization, fiscal conservatism of the federal government, and tax cuts. Against this background, Ronald Reagan advocated Free markets and lean government.Later, Clinton adopted a balanced budget to deal with the fiscal deficit situation left by Bush Sr. So really counting, is Ronald Reagan's free market theory operating for a long time, or the mixed economic government intervening in the economy for a long time?Beauty, you don’t have to argue with me on such an issue, I can give you various examples of government interference in the economy in American history here all day long... so can we continue talking about the economy now? "

Jia Hongjian's question could be regarded as a staircase for the hostess to get off the stage, and the hostess nodded hurriedly.After all, she could tell that she really didn't know much about it, but Jia Hongjian seemed to know a lot about it!Under such circumstances, why would she go up to pester her?Isn't that humiliating?After Jia Hongjian gave the girl a step to step down at this time, he turned his head and continued to talk about economic matters, "The United States is the economic engine of the world. When something happens to the United States, the world will definitely catch a cold. This point There is no doubt. So after the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, I personally estimate that in August, Europe will feel a headache.

Their European Central Bank should start preparing to intervene in the economy in August and prepare to invest funds to rescue the market.But such a move to save the market may not be able to save the market. According to my personal estimation, the economic situation of Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece and other countries may become very bad. They are the countries with the worst economy in the European Union. Moreover, after the European economic integration, they are also faced with the impact of the advantageous industries of other European countries coming in to their own industries, which makes their economic systems single and their ability to deal with crises deteriorate... In short, such a U.S. economic change Bad things will evolve into a new world economic crisis in the next year or two..."

Such an exposition of Jia Hongjian is generally based on his historical memory and what he researched and judged a few days ago.It is basically impossible to go wrong when such a thing is said!To hell with this wrong!And after such a statement was uttered, the male and female hosts were immediately dumbfounded!They were originally going to interview Jia Hongjian for an exclusive entertainment interview, but who knew that Jia Hongjian opened his mouth and gave a 5-minute economic discussion, and then he began to talk about the development of the world economy at length. !The key problem is that the situation he said is quite alarming, and that those who think the subprime mortgage crisis is not a big problem are bragging, saying that this crisis will become a global economic crisis!Hiss... Really?Is Jia Hongjian bragging?Are you running the train with your mouth full?At that time, the two hosts couldn't help but think so!But this time, they didn't make any preparations in advance for economic materials, so they didn't seem to have the confidence to ask Jia Hongjian!what should I do? (To be continued..)