Technology invades the modern world

Chapter 120 Important but Not Urgent Weather Forecasting
"real or fake?"

Two hours later, Ye Du, on his way to retrieve the calculation results from the newly established computing center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, couldn't resist opening the results to check them out.

Regardless of the specifics, at least the calculation yielded the same result.

The location, intensity, and movement path of the future weather system were calculated.

When he returned to the meteorological bureau and handed the results calculated by the computing center to Tu Changwang, Tu Changwang had a similar thought to him: "It seems unlikely that it can be calculated in two hours."

However, they did manage to calculate it.

For the next two weeks, we took the numerical weather prediction model and parameters for the day to the computing center every week for them to calculate.

Then they compared their calculation results with the observation results from local meteorological stations.

Let's see how accurate their calculations are. If their accuracy is higher than our current methods, then we can definitely use their method.

After listening, Ye Duzheng said, "Director, there's still something wrong."

Don't you think the results from the computing center are too precise?

Even if they used a computer to provide the calculations, even the Soviet BESM-2 couldn't achieve that level of precision.

Tu Changwang said, "We don't need to worry about that."

We don't care how the computing center did it; we only care about its accuracy.

He went back and pondered Guo's speech again. Tu Changwang guessed that China might have achieved a technological breakthrough in some area, which was why it was so cautious.

Then, considering that from Hua Luogeng to the entire Mathematics Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, a large number of mathematicians disappeared, supposedly transferred to Guangzhou, but who knows where they were transferred to?

These mathematicians disappeared in the middle of the 60s, but then the Computing Center was established in early 62.
Ye Duzheng said there are only two people in the computing center. How do you know there really are only two people? Tu Changwang thought to himself, maybe through some kind of channel, you give them to them, they put them into the channel, and the channel then transmits what you need to calculate to other rooms.

The two people's calculation center is just something they put on display for you to see.

Tu Changwang had also heard about the missile technology that the Soviet Union "forcibly" purchased from China last year, and he estimated that it was also a result of China's technological breakthroughs.

To find out what he had been thinking, he went to see Dean Qian to try and verify his guess. Sure enough, it was pretty much as he had guessed; Dean Qian had also been transferred.

Therefore, Tu Changwang speculated that China had achieved an unprecedented breakthrough in the field of numerical analysis. In addition, because the breakthrough was so remarkable, there were extremely strict confidentiality requirements.

He guessed that the computing center might be where mathematicians, led by Hua Luogeng, were using human brains to provide calculations for them.

Therefore, since we've already made some guesses, let's not delve any deeper.

Tu Changwang himself didn't want to dwell on the details anymore, nor did he allow his subordinates to inquire about them.

Two weeks later, Tu Changwang organized a meeting with experts from the Meteorological Bureau.

"Come on, Duzheng, you give the summary."

Ye Duzheng walked to the blackboard, which was covered with papers. The papers contained data comparisons between their calculation results, the calculation results from the calculation center, and the actual observation results.

"These are the 24-hour weather forecasts for the past two weeks. The first column is a summary of the results reported by local meteorological stations. The second column is the result calculated using past methods. The third column is the result calculated using the latest numerical weather prediction model."

The accuracy rate for the second column was 65.2%, while the accuracy rate for the third column was 90.3%, significantly higher than that of the second column.

After speaking, Ye Duzheng walked to the second blackboard:
"Starting last week, we extended the weather forecast period to 48 hours."

Similar to the 24-hour chart next to it, the first column is the actual results of the observations, the second column is the previous predictions, and the third column is the predictions after using the new method.

This time the gap between the two sides was even greater. The accuracy rate of the second column was less than 50%, while the accuracy rate of the third column was still around 70%.

So, to summarize, we can use new methods to replace old methods and provide weather forecasts for people across the country and in local areas.

On the other hand, we need to fully explore the potential of the computing center.

In my opinion, our current predictions are not good enough.

Our numerical weather prediction models are still in their infancy, and our meteorological observation network is sparse, mainly concentrated in eastern cities, with almost no data on the upper atmosphere and ocean.

The experts present, who knew that the Meteorological Bureau was collaborating with the Computing Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, were still shocked when they saw the results, even though they knew in advance, and heard the huge contrast in the data.

Those who don't know will be even more shaken.

The most obvious example is Zhu Kezhen.

He is a towering figure in China's meteorological field, a true master.

At the time, he was working at the Institute of Geography of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Of course, he knew about the establishment of the Computing Center, but he did not expect it to be so powerful.

Because his work at this time mainly involved observing crops, and he was in charge of establishing a national phenological observation network at the Institute of Geography of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, he was far removed from frontline meteorological work.

His current work requires virtually no use of the computing center's resources.

Given that only two weeks have passed since the center was officially established until today's meeting, Zhu Kezhen had rarely heard from his colleagues about its remarkable achievements. However, this time he witnessed it firsthand.

"I have a suggestion: you should try to tap the potential of the computing center as much as possible."

When we were developing numerical weather prediction models, our goal was to track advanced international achievements and cutting-edge applications.

I think that one day China will have its own computers, and we will be able to use numerical weather prediction models.

However, this work was done in the 1950s based on a hopeful expectation for the future.

In reality, we don't know when we will have our own computers, or when we will be able to assign them to the meteorological bureau for weather forecasting.

Therefore, when people were doing this work, it was somewhat of a preliminary research process, and they didn't explore the entire model as deeply as possible.

It only uses a simple filtering equation and a single-layer quasi-geostrophic model, without considering vertical motion and non-geostrophic effects.

Insufficient consideration was given to accuracy and applicability.

Of course, I'm not going to dwell on everyone's questions, since these are practical factors.

It's like asking me to prepare now for something that might not happen for who knows how many years from now. I would do it, but I wouldn't put much effort into it.

Now that we have it, we need to optimize and adjust our model to better reflect the actual situation.

Furthermore, I think you should also focus on observing the exact level of precision that the computing center is capable of.

Clearly, although Zhu Kezhen neither cared about nor oversaw the work of the meteorological bureau, everyone listened attentively when he spoke.

The status of meteorology is undeniable.

Not to mention that what the other party said was also very insightful.

They immediately pointed out their problem.

At this point, Tu Changwang added, "Academician Zhu's words make a lot of sense, and this is one of the most important tasks for our meteorological bureau going forward."

We will definitely optimize the existing model.

Last year, we obtained a batch of academic journals published by the American Meteorological Society, which contained many papers related to numerical weather prediction. We are currently organizing people to study and extract the core content.

At this point, JAM had not yet been launched; it mainly consisted of JAS and MWR.

The former is basic research in atmospheric science, while the latter mainly covers weather analysis, forecasting technology, and operational applications.

The latter involves a great deal of highly academic numerical weather prediction research.

"According to our recent research, America is already using a multi-layered quasi-geostrophic model, at least a three-layered structure, which includes the vertical structure of the atmosphere and large-scale circulation."

Their resolution has reached the 200-kilometer level, enabling accurate predictions for the next three to five days.

Indeed, as Academician Zhu said, we need to optimize our model.

More factors need to be considered.

However, regarding the meteorological observation network, we are not entirely sure what level of computing power the computing center can provide.

Zhu Kezhen knew more than Tu Changwang, but he only knew that China had made some breakthroughs in the field of transistor computers, and he didn't know the specifics.

He said, "If you don't know, you can ask. Ask Dean Guo; he'll definitely know the situation."

Zhu Kezhen continued, "In addition, I have some ideas about specific model optimization, which you can refer to."

First, we should incorporate as much data as possible, including all the data observed by the current meteorological stations, such as air pressure, temperature, humidity, and wind speed.

For example, the quasi-geostrophic vorticity equation can divide the entire country into grids, and then input the pressure field and temperature field to calibrate your model based on measured data.

Secondly, the model needs optimization. I don't expect us to go from five layers at once, but at least three layers. We need to run three layers of the original equation model, and the observation stations in various locations will have to take on more tasks, such as finding ways to conduct measurements at high altitudes.

This allows for accurate predictions in more complex situations.

Third, increase the number of days in the forecast, turning one day into two days, two days into three days, or even five days.

Finally, our current meteorological observation network is still concentrated in eastern cities. We also need to pay attention to the southwest, northwest, south China, and north China. The Fifth Academy is developing satellites, and we need to make requests to them; once their satellites are launched, they need to help us capture upper-air data.

After the meeting, Tu Changwang went to the Chinese Academy of Sciences to find President Guo.

Before he could even speak, Dean Guo guessed his purpose: "Old Tu, I know what you mean. Don't worry, your meteorological bureau is definitely the highest priority in the computing center."

Also, have you replaced the weather forecast data you sent to various regions with the calculation results from the computing center?

(End of this chapter)